Full Earth System Sensitivity to CO2 has been Grossly Underestimated

In this one hour long presentation by Professor David Wasdell of the Apollo Gaia Project he explains that we have no available carbon budget and that we are on a trajectory of well over 10 degrees C. This sort of global temperature rise guarantees the total collapse of the biosphere as we know it. Professor Wasdell does have a hopium moment at the end with his “ I have a dream” segment but the presentation is stunning and is a major call out of the dishonest IPCC. Business as usual brings us to 800 ppm to 900 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere which guarantees collapse of industrial civilisation and the melt down of 430 odd nuclear power stations and there attendant spent fuel pool fires.


“It is with the utmost concern that we draw your attention to the fundamental methodological flaw in the determination of the value of Climate Sensitivity that is embedded in the Summary for Policymakers of the Scientific Workgroup of the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC. The error was replicated in the Reports of Workgroups 2 and 3 and carried forward into the Synthesis Report. It has been used as the given basis for every subsequent publication. Our radical analysis of Climate Dynamics has generated a new and robust value of “Earth System Sensitivity” which has profound implications for:

• The relationship between temperature change and cumulative carbon emissions.
• The calculation of “available carbon budget”.
• The evaluation of the INDCs.
• The terms of reference of COP21 in Paris (30 November – 11 December 2015).
• The future global strategy for climate stabilisation.”
Please listen to David Wasdell from the Apollo Gaia Project in his presentation entitled Climate Dynamics: Facing the Harsh Realities of Now

 In the following interview between David Wasdell and Alex Smith from the excellent website Radio Ecoshock, Professor Wasdell discusses the under estimation of the effects of numerous feedbacks; Facing the Harsh Reality of Now
“If anything, climate sensitivity is higher”- Glaciologist Jason Box on Climate Sensitivity
In my November 7th interview with Professor Paul Ehrlich, Paul mentioned that he and some other colleagues have been having a dialogue in the broader scientific community about telling the truth about the severity of the crisis. His most recent paper used the expression “Biological Annihilation via the ongoing Sixth Mass Extinction” in the title, that is almost without  precedent for a science paper. Paul and I discussed the reasons why so few scientists are prepared to admit how dire the situation is due to the kind of intimidation that was directed at Michael Mann and the risk it would pose to their research grants. As always follow the money. To quote the late great Michael C Ruppert “Until you change the way that money works, you change nothing”

I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.

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24 comments on “Full Earth System Sensitivity to CO2 has been Grossly Underestimated
  1. bill says:

    GM has pointed this out lots of times. Earth is in the inner edge of the habitable zone meaning its atmosphere cannot cope with large chemistry changes and remain hospitable – we have made major changes!

    Liked by 2 people

  2. goldermartin says:

    I have a feeling that I saw a quote from either you or Guy which said that if planes stopped flying we would cook the planet in a matter of weeks. Is this true? Is there any data? Thanks. Keep blowing the climate emergency bell.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Kevin Hester says:

    “Our results clearly show that the impact of climate change on mammals and birds to date is currently greatly under-estimated and reported upon,” co-author James Watson, of the Wildlife Conservation Society and the University of Queensland in Australia, said in a statement. “We need to greatly improve assessments of the impacts of climate change on species right now, we need to communicate this to the wider public and we need to ensure key decision-makers know that something significant needs to happen now to stop species going extinct.”

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Kevin Hester says:

    Too late, despite this dude spruiking for nuclear, he knows the game is up.

    Liked by 2 people

  5. rnbeal says:

    Is there a more practical (playable) version of the Wasdell video?


    Liked by 1 person

  6. Kevin Hester says:

    Dig this, great information on the two big sinks and the risk and in my mind probability they could become emiters. No phase switch in the big sinks is calculated in even the IPCC R.C.P’s


  7. Kevin Hester says:

    Larry Parker Quote: ‘Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State, has described the Earth’s climate as a highly complex system that, based on small forces that are still only dimly understood, tends to lurch from one steady state to another. “You might think of the climate as a drunk,” Alley wrote in his great book The Two Mile Time Machine: Ice Cores, Abrupt Climate Change, and Our Future, which was first published in 2000. “When left alone, it sits; when forced to move, it staggers.” ‘
    Left alone, Gaia adjusts smoothly; when provoked, she lurches. This time, It’s our fault.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Henry Swenty says:

    Unfortunately, I believe that it is going to take a climate “Pearl Harbor” to wake people up. If you agree with Paul Beckwith, as I do, it’s difficult to see a positive outcome.

    Liked by 2 people

  9. Kevin Hester says:

    Courtesy of Gerry Grimes on FB


  10. Peter Wadhams says:

    The analysis of climate sensitivity by David Wasdell is very important. I have been through it with him several times and am convinced of its validity. I mentioned it in “A Farewell to Ice”. The point is that here is a big difference between the short term sensitivity, which is used to calculate warming over a few years, and the long term sensitivity which represents how much warming the earth is going to be subjected to if you don’t add more CO2 but let the effects of the present levels work their way fully through the climate system. Short term sensitivity is 2-4.5 C, but long term is more like 10C. The crime of IPCC and other modelling outfits is that they are aware of this difference between short and long term, but still use the short term value even when they are doing hand-waving studies of what is going to happen over the next century or two. In fact it;’s not just the case that the magic 1.5C or 2C warming is already “baked in” to the global system – in fact the baked in figure is more like 4-5 C. Hence the vital need for carbon drawdown. Best wishes Peter Wadhams

    Liked by 2 people

  11. […] A little-discussed and poorly-understood factor in all these trends is climate sensitivity, short- and long-term. For a brief explanation, I quote Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics, and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, who commented: […]


  12. […] A little-discussed and poorly-understood factor in all these trends is climate sensitivity, and the difference between short and long term sensitivity. For a brief explanation, I quote Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics, and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, who commented: […]


  13. […] A little-discussed and poorly-understood factor in all these trends is climate sensitivity, and the difference between short and long term sensitivity. For a brief explanation, I quote Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics, and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, who commented: […]


  14. Kevin Hester says:

    The full ESS number (7.8C per doubling) blew my mind. Reading from the graph on page 17 of the presentation, if we stabilize at 800 ppm we can expect a long term temperature rise of 12C.



  15. Kevin Hester says:

    “But even at a conservative estimate of sensitivity, a 3C planet, to which at minimum we are likely heading, should be considered “extremely dangerous”; and a global average temperature rise within the 3–4C threshold would probably create conditions that make the core infrastructures of human civilisation increasingly unviable.



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Kevin Hester

Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water.  I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.

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