“A research paper concluding that climate-induced collapse is now inevitable, was recently rejected by anonymous reviewers of an academic journal.”
“It has been released directly by the Professor who wrote it, to promote discussion of the necessary deep adaptation to climate chaos.”
“I am releasing this paper immediately, directly, because I can’t wait any longer in exploring how to learn the implications of the social collapse we now face,” explained the author Dr Bendell, a full Professor of Sustainability Leadership.
“One piece of feedback from the 2nd reviewer is worth quoting verbatim:”
“The authors stress repeatedly that “climate-induced societal collapse is now inevitable” as if that was a factual statement… I was left wondering about the social implications of presenting a scenario for the future as inevitable reality, and about the responsibility of research in communicating climate change scenarios and strategies for adaptation. As the authors pointed out, denial is a common emotional response to situations that are perceived as threatening and inescapable, leading to a sense of helplessness, inadequacy, and hopelessness and ultimately disengagement from the issue…” The full article is embedded below;
The Study on Collapse they thought you should not read;
In the presentation below Rupert Read talks about the meltdown of the worlds nuclear power plants and their attendant spent fuel pool fires after industrial civilisation has collapsed;
“A shattering collapse of civilisation is a “near certainty” in the next few decades due to humanity’s continuing destruction of the natural world that sustains all life on Earth, according to biologist Prof Paul Ehrlich.” I believe that Paul Ehrlich is being over cautious with his timeline due to his being proven wrong on some of his predictions in his and Anne Ehrlich’s seminal book “The Population Bomb”. Paul was a former guest on Nature Bats Last, the show is embedded here;
Paul Ehrlich: ‘Collapse of civilisation is a near certainty within decades’
The 7.6 billion sapien question is how quickly can industrial civilisation collapse and the answer is almost over night.
Check out Joseph Tainter’s work on the Collapse of Complex Societies.
A little discussed aspect of the collapse of industrial civilisation is the loss of ‘Global Dimming’ or ‘The Aerosol Masking Effect’ as it is referred to in the referee journal literature. When Ind.Civ collapses we loose the masking effect of our pollution and within about 6 weeks of collapse we will see the particulates fall from the sky and the 1.2C to 1.4C of masked warming manifest in the climate system.
We covered this terminal reality previously on this blog here; Global Dimming Keeping the Planet Habitable
Professor Guy McPherson and I will continue chronicling the unraveling of the biosphere and collapse on our radio show Nature Bats Last on PRN.FM
“How do we live with the fact that we are destroying our world? What do we make of the loss of glaciers, the melting Arctic, island nations swamped by the sea, widening deserts, and drying farmlands?”
“Because of social taboos, despair at the state of our world and fear for our future are rarely acknowledged. The suppression of despair, like that of any deep recurring response, contributes to the numbing of the psyche. Expressions of anguish or outrage are muted, deadened as if a nerve had been cut. This refusal to feel impoverishes our emotional and sensory life. Flowers are dimmer and less fragrant, our loves less ecstatic. We create diversions for ourselves as individuals and as nations, in the fights we pick, the aims we pursue, and the stuff we buy.” From the essay “The Greatest Danger” by Joanna Macey
I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.
Kevin Hester 
“DHS is warning that the electric grid is now the “prime target” of terrorists, and says Americans need to be prepared for a power outage of up to six months.”
Imagine a USA without power for 6 months, 110 nuclear power plant meltdowns and all those lunatics with guns running out of their anti-depressants.
Good luck everyone.
https://offgridsurvival.com/dhspowergriddownwarning/?fbclid=IwAR3wsKjaJp5W9uvAUCmIV4oxY8Tn_pEoGWRFu6MozyxIzaZlRDsPZv-Yb-U
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I think civilization will collapse in about 5 years because of crop failure. There were large scale crop failures this year, 2018, through out the northern hemisphere. A doubling of food prices will cause social unrest and state repression.
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You are suggesting 5 years; I suggest it will be longer than that given the resilience of agriculture in the west. Third world farmers might take the hit first, though, so there will be riots,strikes and civil commotion in the poorer countries, especially if china continues to plunder them.
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David Attenbouough playing catch up with me, Paul Ehrlich, Jem Bendell and Rupert Reid.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/03/david-attenborough-collapse-civilisation-on-horizon-un-climate-summit?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR1tMLhSGT-frVM984-cOe5Uqi-xlnVRzdcVBlvWMsZi_FXNtkjmPG-v9ys
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Great interview with Joseph Tainter on the collapse of complex societies;
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Notice anything here? Almost all men. Perhaps female view is slightly different? I don’t know, just throwing it out there
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Dr. Kate Marvel, Columbia University and NASA GISS
http://www.marvelclimate.com/
Watch one minute youtube:
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Ruppert Reid on Collapse Chronicles;
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I don’t know why Rupert Read is smiling so happily, given the subject of this talk. Maybe he has some secret sauce or a ‘bug out’ place?
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Or simply he acknowledges the conundrum we are in and decided to live happy for the few years we have left, and this with compassion and attention for his loved ones
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Post-Civilisation – IFLAS Occasional Paper 3
IFLAS is pleased that philosopher, Chair of Green House thinktank, and leading member of Extinction Rebellion, Dr Rupert Read has contributed our 3rd Occasional Paper.
https://iflas.blogspot.com/2018/12/post-civilisation-iflas-occasional.html?fbclid=IwAR1Q_CZOVQuFBFlgThlzNvfK-1POazQ8RG8HggXoML1WaYtNIy13njXOX_M
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You can see by the absolute packed room that there is standing room only because so many are clamouring for this information and wanting to hear this message !!!
Labour under Corbyn would only prolong the pain; it would screw the economy and divide the populace even more.
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A really brilliant analysis from The Saker with incisive comments from Orlov with one glaring ommission with regards to the unfolding collapse.
No mention of the ecological armageddon already unfolding.
It’s the perfect storm.
https://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2019/01/the-saker-on-five-stages-of-collapse.html?spref=fb&fbclid=IwAR1epuGfOjgDH0DQAL70IFj1GKWa0rHCn_fbESLwWJofWa7NuJw59qJSgZ4
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The courageous Jem Bendell discusses his landmark paper on the concept of Deep Adaptation and states his belief in the inevitability of climate-induced societal collapse within the next 10 years which is exactly what my former guest on Nature Bats Last Professor Paul Ehrlich has hypothisised. “Within” means between now and 10 years, I believe we are a day to day, week to week, month to month proposition. I’ve covered the collapse of complex societies previously on my blog.
Interestingly he mentions his former silence on his conclusions was due to his fear of losing his earning ability and his social status as a professor.
No one likes being “Cassandra” believe me, I’ve had 6 yrs of it!
Jem mentions that we only have 4 months of global grain production reserves, so we are already facing mass starvation very soon, including in the West and he comments on us feeding grain to stock !!!!!!!
He believes that the collapse is already upon us, who does that remind you of?
His honesty when discussing the emotional journey is refreshing and inspiring. “Getting busy with action can be a distraction of full acceptance of our predicament”. A laser guided observation that the Extinction Rebellion movement needs to consider. Interestingly he doesn’t mention the fact that 450 abandoned nuclear plants will melt down, I suspect he’s still ‘connecting the dots’ on the totality of collapse. It can only be worse than we know.
Remain calm, nothing is under control.
We are only one major climate and/or economic crisis away from total collapse.
No one is coming to the rescue. One day soon those of you on reticulated water and electricity will experience an ‘outage’ that will never come back on!
Good luck everyone, we’re gonna need it.
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I’m 30 minutes into the video and it’s so honest and intimate.
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Fast forward to 12:40. He talks about the nuclear power station problem:
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I really enjoyed this and Johana Macy was mentioned : an elder voice worth listening too. We are not prepared for something so enormous
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Astonishing clarity, conviction and counsel.
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I recently posted the excellent “Scientists Warning” interview with Jem Bendell which is embedded in Robert Hunziker’s article, I embedded it in the comments section of my blog post about Jem and Ruppert Read’s recent work on the coming collapse and uninhabitability of the planet.
I suppose the point I’d like to make is that any of us following the great unraveling closely knows we are in dire straits today and the situation can only be worse than we know.
All we can realistically do know is concentrate on adaption and mental preperation to make the last few weeks or months less horrifying than they will be.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/01/25/end-times-dead-ahead/?fbclid=IwAR3q-_JrQiQSuL3wGldILMjNnx60RFtG8Svr2gEqNXDx76zKyicmEEJFtWM
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“Many people are expecting some degree of approaching collapse — be it economic, environmental and/or societal — thinking that they’ll recognize the danger signs in time.
As if it will be completely obvious, like a Hollywood blockbuster. Complete with clear warnings from scientists, politicians and the media. And everyone can then get busy either panicking or becoming the plucky heroes.
That’s not how collapse works.
Collapse is a process, not an event.
And it’s already underway, all around us.
Collapse is already here.”
https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/114741/collapse-already-here?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook
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[…] Additionally I mentioned the seminal work recently released by both Jem Bendell and Rupert Read which I have covered previously on this blog here; […]
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Thank you! for posting Jem’s thoughts and pertinent questions! His questions have certainly reached deep inside of me and will help me sort out extinction and move beyond denial.
I have known about the collapse for 3 yrs and it was always in the future when i might be dead from old age. Now, it isright in front of my face!.
i am a survivalist and I think about very practical day to day living stuff. Additionally i see the collapse going on all over the world and i am trying to stay sane and enjoy my daily life in spite of the world horrors.
Every summer there are Robin parents who raise their young under my deck roof, last summer ~about 21 chicks were raised and flew away erratically but safely. My acre of grass is full of worms and grubs and i feel connected to the natural world watching the parents fed their young. I live in the VT woods and am lucky to be a part of nature…no hunting, pesticides on my 10 acres.
I have tried to picture my own death from methane poisoning…where will i be and where do i take my last breath and what do i do about my pets and should i buy a gun and keep some bottles of oxygen around so i can go to the place i have picked to die and…
What i find very difficult to see/feel and hear about is the catastrophe that i see online via the news. How much can i take of this? Should i stop watching the news and you tube?
Once the general population gets a whiff of what is coming i think there will be PANIC/RIOTS in the streets and food shortages that will surely add to this pandemonium.
There will be uneven rates of warming/methane some scientists have said spreading all over the world. So, where do i move to extend my duration?
So, i am looking for a safety pocket where i can extend my life even a little bit.
Besides Jem i listen to Guy M., Paul E., Paul B., Peter W., Stuart S and others and look at the charts/papers on the Arctic Sea ice and Antarctica.
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After reading your well enunciated words Judith, I see you understand the severity of our predicament. All I can say is enjoy every peaceful, safe moment, they are numbered now. Good ‘Luck’
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Well Judith, the mega-rich are acquiring ‘bu-out’? places in ‘Niew Zeeland’ as we speak! Do you want to follow them? Do you have many riches? If not, then you will need utter commitment to make such a big shift ! Your ten acres in Vermont sounds nice; why would you move?
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[…] Both presentations and the “Deep Adaption paper are embedded here; This Civilisation is finished. […]
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In this latest presentation from Jem Bendell he discusses his July 2018 paper “Deep Adaptation” in the face of collapse. He doesn’t just speak about the unfolding collapse but also the emotional responses to the knowledge and anticipatory grief.
He mentions how he was deceived by the conservative position of the consensus driven IPCC and the predicament is much worse than they have been prepared to admit. He gives great examples of their refusal to accept ‘Tipping Points’ and Feedback Loops.
Jem considers that the worst feedback of all is the loss of albedo from the diminishing sea ice.
“We are on the edge of something dramatic”.
Importantly he makes the point with a survey of his audience, that talking about the severity of the crisis does not create paralysis but motivation and that by not accepting the severity of the crises we face we are losing time to prepare.
This is an issue I have repeatedly brought up with James Shaw M.P. the co-leader of the Green Party of Aotearoa who to this day refuses to accept that we are in a climate emergency.
I believe our governments should be stockpiling grains and our education system should be totally altered to recognise that this set of living arrangements is going away and much of the education curriculum is now irrelevant. “We must prepare for collapse and Extinction Rebellion should advocate for adaption”.
Jem will be our guest on Nature Bats Last in the May episode, it will be uploaded to the extensive archive at PRN.FM directly after broadcast. Next months episode will feature Professor Paul Ehrlich, author of “The Population Bomb”.
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Here’s the latest interview I can find from Jem Bendell;
https://anchor.fm/emerge/episodes/Dr–Jem-Bendell—The-Meaning-and-Joy-of-Inevitable-Social-Collapse-e3hbfi?fbclid=IwAR1IWz6HxNRQlpSE5NjeT6j6njlYADmP07kzPzFGE-m_7viwuuzDWKOD1sA
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A veritable ‘Piece de resistance’ of collapse.
One point I would take issue with is the contention that we are only at 1.2C above baseline where as Sam Carana from the Arctic News Blog has us at 1.73C above the 1750 baseline but let’s not split hairs on the unfolding collapse, we don’t have time to argue about small details.
https://respondingtocollapse.com/adaptation-and-resilience-amidst-the-decline-of-civilization/?fbclid=IwAR0GSIXOsuhUAlfLS1UCAJG0M46IbMqynqFk1a7vUJN6eCQmzvE-BTAaylc
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“If people are feeling paralysed right now, I think it is probably because they are stuck between false hopes. On the one hand, there is the delusive lure of optimism, the hope that there will be a techno-fix that will defuse the climate emergency while life more or less goes on as usual. This is, I believe, in a desperately-dangerous way keeping us from facing up to climate reality.”
https://theecologist.org/2019/jun/28/civilisation-finished?fbclid=IwAR0pEUKmTXc4ti7LpN8WvS6UJnTGsQLafoJ6UOrFkkpJhwSbg49s37HvAbc
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Another fascinating analysis of the coming collapse.
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“Funding dried up after inconvenient truths”.
One of the reasons why so few scientists are prepared to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth is access to research funding. Recent guests on Nature Bats Last including Professors Paul Ehrlich and Dr Andrew Glikson from the ANU are near the end of their careers and have the courage to call it as my co-host Professor Guy McPherson and Sam Carana from the Arctic News Blog do.
Another reason is no scientists wants to get tarred with the ‘Doomer’ label as we discussed with our most recent guest on the show Professor Corey Bradshaw.
Scientific reticence has ensured that the dominant culture has been able to kick the can and the biosphere off the cliff.
“Schellnhuber said in a recent interview that the IPCC report stating we could stay below 1.5°C of warming was “slightly dishonest” because it relies on immense negative emissions (pulling CO2 out of the air) which was not viable at global scale. He said 1.5°C was no longer achievable but it was still possible to stay under 2°C with massive changes to society.”
Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber in this article is playing ‘fast and loose’ with the actual level of warming we have already experienced. If you go back to 1750 as a baseline we are already past 2C.
At the edge of extinction only a handful of courageous scientists and researchers like me are willing to tell you the truth.
I’ll be surprised if this set of living arrangements survives 2 more melt seasons in the Arctic, that equates to about 18 months.
https://voiceofaction.org/collapse-of-civilisation-is-the-most-likely-outcome-top-climate-scientists/?fbclid=IwAR3pi1FUqdWIJN7EihsRUE1-eu6HDOrSZ113Rr4Pdw4_qT-sZvrZ-2GOT34
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“Civilizations are fragile, impermanent things,” Tainter writes. Nearly every one that has ever existed has also ceased to exist, yet “understanding disintegration has remained a distinctly minor concern in the social sciences.” It is only a mild overstatement to suggest that before Tainter, collapse was simply not a thing.
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Well. Yeah. Faster and faster we spin. It’s what our species has always done; use everything up and then the overpopulated areas die off in huge numbers as the lucky ones run away to greener pastures only to have completely forgotten why a few generations later.
My Extreme World
http://www.tomdispatch.com/
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But we’ve never completely covered the planet’s surface like this before, nor have we done such worldwide destruction of ecosystems. Nor have we blown this much GHGs into the atmosphere. 22 major civilizations charted by anthropologists and all that is left of them is broken rubble and myths…
The NY Times doesn’t like me as if you follow links from other sites they count how many times a month you land on one of their articles.
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I’m looking out the south-facing window at an absolutely HUGE smoke cloud from however many thousands of acres burning just a few miles in that direction.It was 5,000 this morning and it has to be many more by now as it’s 4pm. I know people that have been evac’d out. We’re on standby.
At this point the burn is going past me to the N/E but no telling what it may do. Winds are 20mph with higher gusts bending conifers a bit. It’s also cooler today at 98’F. Not much cooler than yesterday, 5 degrees F doesn’t make much difference. Cloud masses are rolling in from the west that are supposed to be raining by tomorrow at 60% chance. I guess we’ll see. I’ve got totes and boxes stacked downstairs ready to load into the borrowed cargovan. Still doing more of course, while I can. I could load this all out in 15 minutes using the hand truck I think.
Big sigh. Second time this summer. And it’s only now in the hottest part of the year. Or what used to be…
sealintheSelkirks
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This was a superb read from another realist who isn’t prepared to sugar coat the bad news.
https://deirdrekent.com/our-climate-shituation/?fbclid=IwAR0fOqq-DjnaLRvWtuA9aNEAHFbkFFtaUYxKsgjQzyA9EG3eKyhodkKtxAM
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I’ll agree; absolutely magical (insane fantasyland) thinking that biz as usual will continue that is found after all these COP and IPCC and the rest of the incredibly lame crap ‘official’ meetings between those that are permanently invested in STATUS QUO industrialized living continue to hold. What’s the freaking point of all this? Oh, a vacation and fame I guess.
Yeah, if we only change our light bulbs to squiggly ones etc etc we will be JUST FINE. Let’s use fields of maize that use to be food for people and turn it into ethanol and add it to the gasoline while we’re at it. And electric cars that have billionaire Elon Musk supporting Fascist coup in South American countries because they have minerals needed to make his damned batteries…and he has th hubris to admit it.
I’m sure with her on that piece of imbecilic thinking from our political ‘leaders’ in the ‘climate’ movement and the rest of the politicians.
So all those experts will be flying into Glasgow spewing in their jets and partying in such a picturesque spot (lots of picture taking, lots of expensive bottles of wine being opened) and at the end they’ll congratulate themselves and FLY THE FUCK HOME having accomplished absolutely nothing except more empty, unenforceable lists of do and don’t that nobody will pay attention to. Just like the other 25 freaking years of useless bullshit meetings in vacation spots I’ll never see.
Finished? Not yet but this is hitting Louisiana as I type:
Experts Warn of ‘Potentially Catastrophic’ Destruction as Hurricane Ida Reaches New Orleans
The storm is expected to be one of the strongest ever to hit Louisiana, rivaling Hurricane Laura in 2020.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2021/08/29/experts-warn-potentially-catastrophic-destruction-hurricane-ida-reaches-new-orleans
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My average driving is 30 miles round trip once a week to the mailbox in town and every other errand I can think of that needs to be done. Mostly I park the old 4Runner and skate around on one of my old 70s pool boards…the rest of the time I just stay home on this property. I’ve now been adopted by a female tiger kitty that I’ve seen for the last year. She decided that I was good for some food and rubs and, after about a week now, is rubbing her skinny body against this golden retriever’s legs figuring this mellow girl dog only wants to sniff her butt. Which she has done during the purring feline stropping…
Yesterday I had to drive to Mead, northeast of Spokane a few miles, for Kathy’s 2nd hand store (shop cargovan, her gas. It was a pickup of furniture from a guy that died of Covid two weeks ago. It all ended up in the carport of a neighbor who asked the 2nd hand’s owner’s son that lives around the corner if he could call his mom and see if she wanted any of it. On the way down the huge fire I mentioned in the Aug 17th posting (now labeled the Ford Corkscrew Fire at about 15,000 acres) was about 8 miles west of the highway and still had smoke clouds swirling up from different parts of the mountain ridgeline for miles stretching north to south. It’s still burning and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. I can’t see it from this far north and on the west side of the mountains.
But COP 26 will certainly fix everything, eh? Can someone gets so cynical that they run out and only have Irony left? I think I’m getting to that stage.
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And then there was this article that reinforces the fact that nothing is going to change:
Judge’s Order Forces Interior Department to Revive Drilling Lease Sales on Federal Lands and Waters
The oil and gas industry claims the Biden administration is dragging its feet on resuming new leases, while climate activists fear Biden might be backtracking on his promise to stop new drilling.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/29082021/interior-drilling-federal-lands-water/
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Who will crash first? The US or China? Or will they blow the hell out of one another because…that’s what they do? China is a seriously degrading climate disaster area already:
China, 2049: a Climate Disaster Zone, Not a Military Superpower
https://tomdispatch.com/china-2049/
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And on this note, I’m saying adios for now.
sealintheSelkirks
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I look forward to reading your analysis as we circle the drain.
I’m grateful to your contributions to this blog site.
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Thanks, Kevin, for allowing me to speak on your site. And the compliment! Sometimes I talk story with the links I post, sometimes I just post links. Today it’s just a link. This is what’s going on this morning:
Hurricane Ida Deemed a ‘Poster Child’ for Climate Disaster as Storm Slams Louisiana
“The dystopian horrors we’re all witnessing are only going to get worse if we keep extracting and burning fossil fuels.”
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2021/08/30/hurricane-ida-deemed-poster-child-climate-disaster-storm-slams-louisiana-0
sealintheSelkirks
.
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The incomparable Donella Meadows from 1977
We were warned
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About the MSM and how it presents to the public…but since it’s corporate, owned by the very wealthy…
Tom gets this correct:
“And when it comes to global warming, we’re not talking about a possible future crash from which, as in the Great Depression of 1929 or the Great Recession of 2009, we can recover in a limited number of years. We’re talking about the potential for a forever crash, the Greatest Depression of all time that lurks all too obviously in our future and is already beginning to clobber us.”
Where Oh Where Are the Screaming Headlines About Planetary Destruction?
Ending the world as we’ve known it, whether in a matter of weeks or in slow motion over countless decades should, it seems to me, evoke the screaming headlines of our times
https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/climate-coverage-planetary-destruction
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sealintheSelkirks
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Hi Kevin,
Nothing in the contents – please re-send!
âDushko
>
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This is Joe Tainter from 9 years ago. He explains “Jevon’s Paradox” brilliantly.
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The latest from Rupert Read
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