“Losing the remaining Arctic sea ice and its ability to reflect incoming solar energy back to space would be equivalent to adding one trillion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, on top of the 2.4 trillion tons emitted since the Industrial Age, according to current and former researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego.”
“At current rates, this roughly equates to 25 years of global CO2 emissions.”
Research Highlight: Loss of Arctic’s Reflective Sea Ice Will Advance Global Warming by 25 Years
“Algae that live in and under the sea ice play a much greater role for the Arctic food web than previously assumed. In a new study, biologists of the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research showed that not only animals that live directly under the ice thrive on carbon produced by so-called ice algae. Even species that mostly live at greater depth depend to a large extent on carbon from these algae. This also means that the decline of the Arctic sea ice may have far-reaching consequences for the entire food web of the Arctic Ocean. Their results have been published online now in the journal Limnology & Oceanography.”
“We now know that ice algae play a much more important role for the pelagic food web than previously assumed. This finding also means, however, that the decline of the ice could have a more profound impact on Arctic marine animals, including fish, seals and ultimately also polar bears, than hitherto suspected,” says Doreen Kohlbach.”
Ice algae: The engine of life in the central Arctic Ocean
“Experts estimate the washed-up whales represent just 10% of the total number of the dead, with the rest sinking into the sea unnoticed by humans.”
“At least 81 gray whale corpses have washed ashore in California, Oregon, Washington and Alaska since Jan. 1. If tallies from Mexico and Canada are added, the number of stranded gray whales reaches about 160 and counting, said Michael Milstein, spokesman for NOAA Fisheries.”
Thousands of whales are dying. Scientists have run out of public beaches for the carcasses to rot
In the August episode of Nature Bats Last our guest Dr Andrew Glikson discussed his recent work titled: Beyond Climate Tipping Points: Greenhouse Gas Levels Exceed the Stability Limit of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets.
“The pace of global warming has been grossly underestimated. As the world keeps increasing its carbon emissions rising in 2018 to a record 33.1 billion ton CO2 per year, the atmospheric greenhouse gas level has now exceeded 560 ppm (parts per million) CO2–equivalent, namely when methane and nitric oxide are included. This level surpasses the stability threshold of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The term “climate change“ is thus no longer appropriate, since what is happening in the atmosphere-ocean system, accelerating over the last 70 years or so, is an abrupt calamity on a geological dimension threatening nature and civilization. Ignoring what the science says, the powers-that-be are presiding over the sixth mass extinction of species, including humanity.”
“As conveyed by leading scientists “Climate change is now reaching the end-game, where very soon humanity must choose between taking unprecedented action or accepting that it has been left too late and bear the consequences”
“Black carbon particles from Siberian forest fires, fall down to the arctic ice. As these particles are black, they absorb sunlight and can accelerate ice melt if found in high enough concentrations. Our graphic shows black carbon concentrations, where high values can be seen emerging from the Siberian forest fires, circulating into the polar circle.”
Forest fires in Siberia, sending ash into the Arctic.
For additional day to day, up to date evidence of our headlong rush towards a Blue Ocean Event, I recommend readers follow Zack Labe on Twitter
and Sam Carana at the Arctic News Blogspot
The marine food web isn’t going to collapse, it is collapsing, now, live and direct.
The dominant culture and the corporate media are pretending to cover the unraveling of the biosphere but what they aren’t telling you about is the rapidity of the collapse and how the domino effect of crossing these tipping points triggers cascading consequences.
I’ll be surprised if industrial civilisation survives an ice free Arctic summer and we might be only a year or two away from that eventuality.
One final comment I would make about the impending ice free Arctic sea is that we don’t need to have crossed the official definition of an Ice Free Arctic to see the 50 gigatonne methane discharge from the clathrates as hypothesised by Dr Natalia Shakova et al. That could burst forth at any moment.
John Doyle thinks we will see a 10C temperature rise in the coming decades;
Next months guest on Nature Bats Last is Arthur Keller. We will be discussing his presentation titled “Collapse: The Only Realistic Scenario”. That episode can be found after broadcast at the Nature Bats Last archive at PRN.FM
Feel free to leave a comment below and to subscribe to the blog
Good luck everyone, we are sure going to need it.
I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.
Kevin Hester 
“Sea ice was very thin near the North Pole on January 24, 2024, indicating there is very little left of the latent heat buffer to consume incoming heat. Without this buffer constituted by the sea ice, ocean heat could abruptly destabilize methane hydrates.” https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/potent
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Sam Carana
Via Sams’ Facebook post
NORTH ATLANTIC VERY HOT
Ominously, the North Atlantic sea surface was much hotter in early 2024 than it was in early 2023.
From the post ‘Potential temperature trends’, at:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/potential-temperature-trends.html?fbclid=IwAR3DRWVp4hCNpNWQqio9-D1jMrUl9YPEZkOy6WPFeTaJf4zFKsYk7yy6wH8
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It’s all linked:
https://wraltechwire.com/2024/01/26/marshall-brain-how-overheating-in-the-arctic-circle-will-cause-the-collapse-of-civilization/?fbclid=IwAR1CvNq6Syi9sFwBr7FAeQmkGYWGE-X_01NcO5g9EFRvENUcXoFgKFCGKA0
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Sam Carana
DRAMATIC LOSS OF ARCTIC SEA ICE THICKNESS
Arctic sea ice thickness declined dramatically in a few days time, as indicated by this compilation image, with images from the University of Bremen.
The once-thick sea ice used to act as a latent heat buffer able to consume much incoming heat. As Arctic sea ice gets thinner, the latent heat buffer shrinks and Arctic sea ice could melt away quickly as temperatures rise on the Northern Hemisphere, in line with seasonal changes.
For the time of year, Arctic sea ice extent is currently still extensive, compared to earlier years, which is a reflection of more water vapor in the atmosphere and more precipitation. While Arctic sea ice extent is relatively large, its volume now is among the lowest of all years on record for the time of year. Volume = extent x thickness, so low volume and relatively large extent means that sea ice is very thin.
Furthermore, much of the thicker sea ice is located off the east coast of Greenland and this sea ice is likely to melt away quickly as temperatures rise in line with seasonal changes.
Without the buffer constituted by thicker sea ice, an influx of ocean heat could rapidly and abruptly destabilize hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane. Given methane’s very high immediate global warming potential (GWP), the resulting heat could push up temperatures dramatically, at first affecting the Arctic and causing more sea ice to melt and more permafrost to thaw, and subsequently spreading around the world.
From the post ‘Potential temperature trends’, at:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/potential-temperature-trends.html?fbclid=IwAR2fxRVB465hHvg49dHP3bRhEZUyo8dT0i2JnQpGJu41JkHbBB01BMLvF14
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BOE 2024?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/02/blue-ocean-event-2024.html?fbclid=IwAR0_KdsAX8wDFyUElIdecLMD_2pBE68v526h8Xwmfu6PF3KweyYT9M_OTSc
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Sam Carana’s latest, is terrifying.
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/02/blue-ocean-event-2024.html?fbclid=IwAR0fRRwYbsLpWMit0wiYSldIY2i8ZoKwt9_8xJZ9FjhHyB7EPtsXH1qKWtQ
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A really chilling, pardon the pun article from Yale but I don’t understand this calculation, because it doesn’t add up.
” Not only had it rained, but it had rained for four days as the air temperature rose by 30 degrees C (54 degrees F), close to and above the freezing point.”
This does not compute!
https://e360.yale.edu/features/arctic-rainfall-climate-change?fbclid=IwAR1ZBZIrSblTEmhpiCoNN_ajBZnRdlqdq4RACg4bDW-VZ1e6eMV36OKIMeA
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Via the tireless Sam Carana:
ARCTIC SEA ICE SET FOR STEEP DECLINE
The sea surface (60°S-60°N, 0-360°E) reached record high temperatures end February 2024 and early March 2024 (records going back to 1981). Sea surface temperatures look set to get even higher in March 2024. Why can sea surface temperature be expected to keep rising through March 2024?
The highest sea surface temperatures for the year are typically reached in March. This was the case for the previous years on record going back to 1981, except for the year 2023 when the current El Niño started to emerge, resulting in the highest peak for the year occurring in August 2023. There is a 100% probability that El Niño will be present during the 3 months from February 2024 to April 2024, according to NOAA.
Ocean heat content keeps rising at a rate of change that is non-linear.
As the atmosphere and the oceans keep heating up, Arctic sea ice keeps declining. With the change in seasons, more sunlight will be reaching the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic sea ice looks set for a steep decline over the next few months.
Meanwhile, emissions keep rising and Arctic sea ice volume is at a record low for the time of year, at a time when little or no sunlight is yet reaching the Arctic.
Without the buffer constituted by thicker sea ice, an influx of ocean heat threatens to destabilize hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.
From the post ‘Arctic sea ice set for steep decline’, at:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/arctic-sea-ice-set-for-steep-decline.html?fbclid=IwAR3yrbC0MHJYeq9Ar3sXKPqzjU7in08Ymy0jVcT7MObTvWqXcIgAhyntEyw
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ARCTIC SEA ICE MARCH 2024
Climate Reanalyzer registered a record high daily temperature of 21.2°C for the sea surface (60°S-60°N, 0-360°E) on March 4, 2024, with daily records going back to 1981.
As the atmosphere and the oceans keep heating up, Arctic sea ice keeps declining. As illustrated by the image below, Arctic sea ice extent was 14.766 million km² on March 4, 2024.
There are a few years when extent was lower than in 2024. This may be due to more water vapor in the air causing more precipitation in the Arctic. At this time of year, Arctic sea ice has typically reached its maximum annual extent and goes into steep descend until half September. With the change in seasons, more sunlight will be reaching the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic sea ice looks set for a steep decline over the next few months.
Arctic sea ice volume is already at a record low for the time of year, at a time when little or no sunlight is yet reaching the Arctic. Given that Arctic sea ice is not at a record low extent for the time of year, this indicates that the sea ice is very thin, due to ocean heat melting sea ice away. Moreover, much of the thicker sea ice is located off the east coast of Greenland, and this sea ice will melt away quickly as temperatures rise over the next few months.
From the post ‘Arctic sea ice set for steep decline’, at:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/arctic-sea-ice-set-for-steep-decline.html?fbclid=IwAR3IsF_42CdJF9o1FvC4gwL8nomEfPHzSmfr8dTbY-6V2IdszfOe_S1GShg
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Well, at least the author said this will have “profound impacts” but I still think it was probably low-balled. The overwhelming speed of this continues to surprise the absolute shit out of mainstream scientists.
Should have used the word ‘catastrophic’ instead of ‘profound’ is what I’m thinking.
Besides which, they are fighting wildfires already because last year’s monster blazes DIDN’T GO OUT. Oops. What a bummer that is, eh?
74’F here in this part of the Selkirk Range today. Probably the same over the border on the Canadian side since it’s only 40 air miles from this house.
It used to be snowing here this time of year, major blizzards that would drop feet at MY elevation, not just up on the peaks, enough to force me to fire up the big snowthrower. Didn’t use it even once this so-called winter.
Robins showed up last week. Use to be due in April when they’d start eating worms and making nests. I’m not sure there are many worms around after the heat death suffered by the ground from 2021’s Heat Dome. I have a children’s book of photos about one of the nests I followed from blue eggs to 1st flight that I can’t afford to publish (nobody reads books anymore anyway, right?). Written for pre-school/Kindergarten age. Great pictures if I do say so myself. But I’ve had no visible robin nests on the property since 2021 when the eggs baked and the babies inside died trying to peck their way out. Mama abandoned the nest…and all the others that were built that year were, also.
Watching the slow death of the world up here, Kevin.
A Future of Arctic Rain
Warming temperatures have started to tip the region’s precipitation balance away from snow. Can wildlife weather the change?
https://thetyee.ca/News/2024/03/15/Future-Arctic-Rain/
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sealintheSelkirks
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Dude I really appreciate those anecdotal observations.
Yup, the shit show is accelerating at a rate of knots.
Maybe self-publish the book on Amazon?
Good luck sir
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As I have been harping on, for the last 10 years, that the “Rate of Change” is the critical issue:
“How serious is the situation in Greenland?”
“Answer (Wadhams): “Well, it’s very serious because it’s unprecedented that the rate of melt… Suddenly its multiplied itself by about seven or eight; it’s 30 million tons an hour, but when I was last up there it was 30 million tons per day… now gone to an hourly rate which used to be daily rate… when you’re up on the ice sheet you see big changes.”
Compare this to a cancer patient, when the cancer cells multiply at the above rates how long do you have?
To quote Dr Albert Bartlett “The Greatest Short coming of the Human Race is our inability to truly understand the exponential function”.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2024/03/15/greenland-cascading-30-million-tons-per-hour/?fbclid=IwAR0JRGmZF5ZG_wIRLMy_YlkD4IGhML7vR77ayx9mhI7N2mnp4efRksNLVGQ
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And what will the full price be? Another article still blabbing about how ‘everyone needs to get on board’ etc etc etc. Tired useless worn-out platitudes that nobody pays any attention to except those who make a living saying and writing them.
Those that could have made changes back when they might have had an impact refused to do so in favor of greater financial reward. Another platitude: ‘a day late and a dollar short’ applies here I’m sure.
For centuries we have plundered our planet. Now we are paying the price
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/climate-and-people/tedros-adhanom-ghebreyesus-who-climate-change-health-crisis/
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Facing another 22’C day under a very blue sky. In mid-March. Saw my first butterfly this morning, black with yellow around the edges of its wings. This is completely nuts.
sealintheSelkirks
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“When rainfall hits the snow-covered sea ice, it darkens the surface and can amplify melting that in turn leads to more warming—a process known as the ice-albedo feedback loop. Snow on top of sea ice acts as insulation, reflecting solar radiation back to space and keeping the surface cool.”
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152575/the-arctic-is-getting-rainier?utm_source=FBPAGE&utm_medium=NASA+Earth&utm_campaign=NASASocial&linkId=365027215&fbclid=IwAR15y-olY7qJXSW78luQBKDOP7HxcTcvJuD4ZKo2sx7C3vMWVSBZcSRFuGs
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Arctic sea ice has likely reached its maximum extent for the year, at 15.01 million square kilometers (5.80 million square miles) on March 14. The 2024 maximum is the 14th lowest in the 46-year satellite record. Learn more: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
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Presentation in Westerly, Rhode Island, March 2024 (youtube.com)
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X09vtWNDuDw&t=64s
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