Collapse: The Only Realistic Scenario

This months guest on Nature Bats Last is Arthur Keller author of the You Tube Presentation “Collapse: The Only Realistic Scenario”.
Kevin and Guy were joined by Arthur Keller, who studies system dynamics. Initially a rocket scientist, Keller has become an author, screenwriter, and keynote speaker. We lost Arthur for a few moments but the technicians at the studio burst into life, recovered the signal with him and he saw out an interesting hour with us.

The episode is embedded here;

NBL

Arthur’s seminal You Tube Presentation: Collapse: The Only Realistic Scenario

I mentioned the work of Albert Bartlett and his contention that “The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race is our inability to understand the exponential Function” I’ve embedded that presentation for further reference

This interview continues a theme on NBL of non-linear changes we are witnessing. Grasping the significance of non-linearity is crucial to this predicament. Our previous guest Dr Andrew Glikson has a similar contention. That interview and corroborating evidence is embedded here;

Professor Paul Ehrlich was interviewed previously on this blog about his position on the coming collapse. That discussion is embedded here:

Good luck everyone

I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Arthur Keller, Collapse, Nature Bats Last, Professor Guy McPherson
70 comments on “Collapse: The Only Realistic Scenario
  1. Kevin Hester says:

    Via Just Collapse on Facadebook
    4 February at 17:53 ·
    At a ground-breaking event on collapse (Oct 2021), academics and activists spoke at the University of Tasmania, including the authors of the highly read and controversial Energies paper, ‘Through the Eye of a Needle: An Eco-Heterodox Perspective on the Renewable Energy Transition’.
    One audience member observed: ‘I listened to it live and constantly found myself asking, “Is this actually happening? Is this University legit? Are these academics truly telling it like they see it?” I concluded with the same take-away – that they’re no longer concerning themselves with “what ifs” or the typical “we can still act to save it all!” type of approach. Instead, they seemed like they were genuinely “bracing for impact” – and some of them looked and sounded downright scared. That freaked me out and threw me off in a way that I wasn’t expecting.’
    #TalkCollapse because everyone has a right to know what’s coming.

    Like

    • sealintheselkirks says:

      Here we go as this ‘progressive’ Democrats-will-save-us-if-only-we-get-rid-of-Trump oriented website (always posts whatever Mann is spouting, too, by the way) throws down some really bad news to its readership.

      There’s always a lot of comments that bleed hopium on so I’m sure you’ll appreciate the first paragraph of “scientists increasingly concerned” and “potentially resulting” which is about as close as they can get to saying YOU ARE FUCKED, PEOPLE. Yeah, well…

      Scientists Fear Soaring Methane Levels Show Climate Feedback Loop Has Arrived
      Rapidly rising levels of atmospheric methane are “very bad news for humanity and the planet,” warned one observer.

      https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/02/09/scientists-fear-soaring-methane-levels-show-climate-feedback-loop-has-arrived
      ___

      It was 9C three days ago, brilliant sunshine warm sun through the windows…on 7Feb in the Selkirk Range? I’m kidding, right? Night-time temps are what the daytime temps should be. Yeah, well…again.

      Yesterday cooled some but today did the same, blue sky sunshine. It’s starting to give a scary feeling that winter is over already…like it did last year when the wildfires started up in March in this district instead of the last frost being in June. I’d have to look back on my old calendars to see when that last happened as I don’t remember right off the bat.

      This is not good but also not unexpected as how can I possibly not anticipate worse and worse outcomes?

      Remember the old adage ‘Knowledge is Power?’ Weeelll, I’m not feeling too good about the knowledge at this point because there isn’t a fucking thing I can do to change what’s coming. So I do what I can and handed out the Approaching Collapse Forum link to people that asked what the latest was on Monday in Chewelah. That’s about all I can accomplish anymore. It doesn’t feel like enough, Kevin, but there isn’t any more to give.

      sealintheSelkirks

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Kevin Hester says:

    Andy has hit the nail on the head with the insanity of closing our only oil refinery. When war breaks out in the Pacific we’ll see the disruption of fuel supplies to Aotearoa New Zealand. Not having a refinery means we’ll see society break down within weeks of the blockade.
    Disclaimer; I worked on the Marsden Point Expansion project in the early 1980’s, I have oil and it’s emissions on my hands.

    https://sustainabile.substack.com/p/honesty-box?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMjY0NzUyLCJwb3N0X2lkIjo0OTgxOTU4MSwiXyI6IklHYVNNIiwiaWF0IjoxNjQ2NjEwMDc1LCJleHAiOjE2NDY2MTM2NzUsImlzcyI6InB1Yi03MTY0NTIiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.WkAlw4vajF09SeQulRrKxcaxybRCn8Q3I3XSTljhDes&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&s=r

    Like

    • sealintheselkirks says:

      Yeah, you might find out that things will fall apart very quickly in New Zealand if the only way to move anything is by horse-drawn wagon or a person’s back! I expect we’ll find that happening all over.

      Here in these mountains the ignorant are all about becomes lords of all they survey from their armed compounds full of their followers/believers.

      Along with professing a deep and faithful love that they all worship Jee-sus who assures them that might makes right as usual. As if those two wildly opposing thoughts could possibly co-exist but the human brain is quite squishy…like putty, eh? What caliber weapon would Jee-sus carry I wonder?

      But regardless they’ll end up walking, too, because without their mechanized farm equipment and lot of gasoline there is no way that they can grow, move, and store enough feed for their horse-mounted army past the first winter. Not without ongoing shipments of petroleum just like NZ. The horses will starve to death except the ones in the wild maybe…

      No refineries around here, either, Kevin. And I’m sure whatever remains of armed gov authority will be ‘requisitioning’ any and all private fuel supplies they can get.
      __

      Gas just jumped a dollar a gallon here supposedly due to the ‘sanctions’ on importing Russian oil. But then I recently read that the US is the number one oil producer in the world (adding in all the fracking wells everywhere I guess) so my question is why does the US need to import oil from anywhere? Much less from Russia or the Saudis who financed the World Trade Center attack. So why is the US exporting oil only to buy it from somebody else and import it? Ah, the subtleties of profit!
      __

      The link was more not-fun reality. Seems to be a lot of that lately. And in 2 hours the mask mandates end in Washington State as Omicron’s baby, the new strain BA.2, spreads out like a gasoline fire in Asian and Europe. 61,000 died in the US in February but let’s get back to ‘normal’ so the wealthy can keep making money off of our labor as the elites threaten nuclear war over Ukraine. Collapse, baby, comes in many different shades of ugly.

      sealintheSelkirks

      Liked by 1 person

  3. […] and extinction crises and the contemporaneous issue of the re-rise of fascism and subsequent collapse. Not having a refinery means we’d suffer societal collapse in a matter of weeks of a blockade […]

    Like

  4. Kevin Hester says:

    Excellent analysis from Jordan Perry

    Like

    • sealintheselkirks says:

      Had to load it from youtube as the link says unavailable.

      I’m 20 minutes in and I am aware of everything I’ve heard. These explanations seem more for people who just don’t get it. Or haven’t really accepted down in their guts that this is flat-out going to end and pretty goddamned soon.

      The reality is that we cannot ‘go out into the world and find food, and the invasive species that overruns the native ones make it even harder for the very few who can, is quite obvious. Who has the skills to even know that is edible beyond a few obvious ones.

      The fact that farming/ability to store food is what helped us get to this point in the destruction of the ecosystem that gave us life due to creating massive overpopulation that is quikly consuming the last of the resources so that even he admits we can’t change spit.

      Big sigh. So I’m doing what I can on this little piece of ridgeline. That’s all I can do. I even let loose Chinese Knapweed flying weevils in 2008, a biocontrol instead of using fucking herbicides. This property hasn’t had anything sprayed over it since I’ve lived here. I will, as David B suggested, just enjoy what little wild life is still left while it is still alive because there will be a time when it won’t be…along with this body I inhabit.

      50% of U.S. Lakes and Rivers Are Too Polluted for Swimming, Fishing, Drinking

      https://www.ecowatch.com/us-lakes-and-rivers-polluted.html

      Fifty years ago, the U.S. passed the Clean Water Act with the goal of ensuring “fishable, swimmable” water across the U.S. by 1983.
      Now, a new report from the Environmental Integrity Project (EIP) finds the country has fallen far short of that goal. In fact, about half of the nation’s lakes and rivers are too polluted for swimming, fishing or drinking.

      sealintheSelkirks

      Liked by 1 person

  5. sealintheselkirks says:

    More reality:

    99% of Humans Breathe Unhealthy Air, Latest WHO Data Shows

    https://www.ecowatch.com/global-air-pollution-who.html
    __

    The Ocean Is Having Trouble Breathing

    A drop in oxygen levels is putting ocean ecosystems on life support.

    https://nautil.us/the-ocean-is-having-trouble-breathing-15789/
    __

    I just can’t find any good news anywhere.

    sealintheSelkirks

    Liked by 1 person

  6. sealintheselkirks says:

    Watching this tonight. Interesting that New Zealand should expect this “much much sooner than anyone thought” excepting of course those scientists they have refused to even acknowledge. And I love this next part: “and that’s IF we stick to the Paris Agreement.”

    Which NOBODY on the planet is doing. WTF? Your news faces are just as fucking ignorant as ours are, Kevin! Just in the first two minutes of this 7 minute vid…

    Significant sea level rise on its way for NZ much sooner than first thought – scientists | Newshub

    Then the next 10 second “I’ve been a climate scientist for 20 years and I thought we had more time…”

    I’m not sure I’m going to bother watching the next five minutes because, I’m sorry to say, I think I have read science that is far more accurate.

    And just before this was a weather reporter talking about what to expect in the next couple of months because winter in NZ isn’t going to happen like anyone expects:

    ___

    It ain’t just India is it, Kev?

    sealintheSelkirks

    Liked by 1 person

  7. sealintheselkirks says:

    I am definitely not seeing the usual number of bugs so far this year. It was 78’F yesterday and the air was mostly empty. Not many robins left as they can’t find any worms and bugs in the ground that was baked hard in last summer’s ‘heat dome.’ This is spooky.

    UK Survey Finds ‘Terrifying’ 60% Plunge in Flying Insect Population
    “We cannot put off action any longer, for the health and well-being of future generations this demands a political and societal response. It is essential that we halt biodiversity decline now.”

    https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/05/05/uk-survey-finds-terrifying-60-plunge-flying-insect-population
    ___

    Today I woke up to heavy rain and on & off the rest of the day. Right now, 3am, the sky is washed so clear that the starfields above my head are literally twinkling so bright that I can see…until I look down at the ground.

    sealintheSelkirks

    Liked by 1 person

  8. sealintheselkirks says:

    We just had a Derecho AND a Habob at the same time rip through Iowa and South Dakota six days ago. Think the farmers are having a good time this year in their fields? Windstorms have been hitting, too, Cat. 2 hurricane speeds (one clocked at 105mph) tearing things up not counting the tornadoes this year. Gi-freaking-gantic Wall Clouds that are spanning the country from Texas to Michigan spinning off all sorts of weird weather day after day after week after month. I am still shaking my head at the EF-5 that totally destroyed Mayfield KY in December. That just doesn’t happen…or it didn’t used to is probably more accurate.

    That hurricane was still in the Gulf of Mexico last I looked and that was shocking the weather folks. Nobody expected it to last this long.

    5/12/2022 Sioux Falls Derecho in real time

    Right now I have two friends driving through Colorado and South Dakota to drop south into Missouri with his 30 foot trailer to pick up most of a ‘Lincoln Log’ put-together home that they could afford. He’s been calling for updates of what I’m seeing on the satellite and radar maps. He’s literally between two fronts right now, one ahead of him and one following!

    ___

    The lower Selkirk Range weather:

    Air full of debris as the frosty morning turned into a rainy noon to a sunshine afternoon to more rain from very large dark cloud masses that also dropped some hail (quickly melted). Then about 3pm the wind gusts came howling in to bend the 100 foot trees to near where a couple broke two weeks ago. High today was maybe 17C at its warmest.

    Now it is nearing dark, the sky has dust haze from what blew in from the flats and Scablands between here and the Cascades to the west. Not quite gritty in the eyes but close…

    Another night below freezing predicted. Did see weather for NZ and there was a storm either about to hit or hitting you a day or two ago.

    May we live in interesting times, eh?

    sealintheSelkirks

    Liked by 1 person

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Kevin Hester

Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water.  I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.

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