The Myth of 2C Being Safe and Achievable

At every twist and turn in our Runaway Abrupt Climate Change fiasco we have been lied to by the powers that be that they were acting and had the situation under control.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

William Nordhaus, an economist at Yale was the first corporate shrill to suggest that 2C was both achievable and safe.  It was neither but we were collectively sold the lie.
I have been moved to draft this blog after continually reading climate change articles that continue to reference 2C as being achievable as it patently is not and when the aware reader witnesses chaos unfolding at approximately 1.5C it is obvious that 2C will be catastrophic and is only a pathway to much higher global mean temperatures as a myriad of tipping points and self reinforcing feedback loops kick in.

Below are a number of embedded links to confirm the obvious: ‘Why the 2°C limit looks increasingly impossible‘ care of ” Vox”.

We have been thrown under the abrupt climate change bus and the lying before Cop 21 is under way

“At a meeting in London on 28 October, New Scientist asked the chief UN climate negotiator, Christiana Figueres, if it was now time for the world to accept that limiting warming to 2 °C is unrealistic and to start preparing for even greater warming. Figueres vehemently rejected this idea.”

“Would you want that for your children,” she responded. “This is about the quality of life on this planet.” The Paris treaty would “build a pathway” to 2 °C, she said, by paving the way for further cuts.

It is time to start preparing for a world more than 2 °C warmer than now, via New Scientist:  ‘The climate fact no one will admit: 2 °C warming is inevitable.’

Computer estimates of current climate sensitivity is demonstrated that they are dangerously low. They are based on an inadequate treatment of the system of amplification feedback which multiplies the effect of human interference of the composition of the atmosphere. The detailed analysis of the historical planetary response to the change in the concentration of carbon dioxide, temperature increase reveals an amplification of the eight times that of CO 2 (in contrast with the amplification of three times predicted by the climate modeling BY COMPUTER SET IPCC). Applying the corrected value of the sensitivity of the climate multiplied by more than 2 ½ times the earlier predictions of the response to any change given in the concentration of CO 2.

“One immediate consequence is the collapse of the “Carbon budget available” and the recognition that all future emissions add to the passing of the atmospheric gases of greenhouse effect. Significant reduction in the current population of CO 2 e is an essential element in the limitation of the increase in the global temperature to 2° c.

“On the other hand, the advances in the understanding of the implicit increase in the level of the sea and the dynamic response of global climate to small changes in the average temperature of the surface, show conclusively that the limit of temperature goal of 2° (C) has been set too high. It has to be reduced below 1° c if we want to avoid catastrophic climate change. Implications of the new analysis are set out for the whole of the promises of reduction in emissions of offered currently before the cop21, as well as with the persistent stage bau high emissions”.

Comment from Chefurka:

For those with a strong stomach for the bad news, the new paper of Dr. David Wasdell, given to meet before the cop21 in Paris.  7.8 degrees c by duplication of Co2 in place of 3 C? You say “Carbon budget”. Yes, we had one of these, maybe a hundred years ago. We now have a carbon overshoot that we can never pay.

“I firmly believe that Wasdell is correct. The situation that we face is much more serious than what we’ve accepted until now, because it was not taken into account the long term effects almost irreversible atmospheric co2. As usual, we’ve looked into the future only until the confines of our own life, and hemo ignored completely the lingering effects of the actions of today for those who live in the more distant future.”

Here is some additional information, The impossibility of limiting Global Warming to 2C. Brace for Impact:  Apollo Gaia Project. The harsh realities of now.

Several great videos:  5 Degrees Warmer: Civilization Collapses and Kevin Anderson – Delivering on 2°C: evolution or revolution?

McKibben’s Divestment Tour – Brought to You by Wall Street | Part XI: 2 Degrees of Credendum.  Brought to you, courtesy of Cory Morningstar author at: Wrong Kind of Green:

Excerpt:  “Conclusion: We have the United Nations, scientists, governments, global media, corporations, educational facilities, etc. etc. all echoing the three syllable term, the “2ºC target.” This term has been unremittingly reverberated throughout the echo chambers of corporate and so-called progressive media in tandem with the non-profit industrial complex. This constant reiteration did not reflect the 2ºC terminology, rather, it constructed it. Misleading statements, videos, interviews and both academic and scientific papers carefully and deliberately tone down any sense of immediate urgency, lending further “target” legitimacy to the 2ºC target, to which we acquiesce. Remember that the chosen word “target” is defined as “a goal to be achieved,” which strikes a chord, even if only on a subconscious level – which is far more powerful.

It has become normalized. The spectacle, comprised of a single number united with a single letter (with a little circle between them), must be considered a feat in 21st century hegemony – a creation by those whose interests are served by the spectacle; a pasquinade for the impoverished and those not yet born. The 2ºC discourse must be considered perhaps the most deadly game of psychological warfare ever played on human society. Using simple language and steadfast repetition, the acceptance by civil society of this so-called “two-degree target” represents an unsurpassed feat in modern psy-ops.”

After many decades of supporting Greenpeace and 350.org and similar organisations I have come to the conclusion that they are no longer the independent activist organisations I worked in many decades ago, they are now all beholding to the corporate money they receive and use to fund their corporate entities with.

Like Captain Paul Watson and Peter Wilcox, former Skipper of the Greenpeace Rainbow Warrior  whom I was once arrested with for ” Obstructing a Nuclear Ship in the course of it’s passage”I have moved on.

I will be touring NZ with my dear friend and fellow climate warrior Professor Guy McPherson in November 2016, more details will be available on this blog in the near future;

Activist, sailor, passionate about the earth. Brace for impact, based on the way the world is being operated and treated. Live every day as precious.

Tagged with:
Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Feedback loops
15 comments on “The Myth of 2C Being Safe and Achievable
  1. Really most interesting analysis by Cory Morningstar. I have been a fan of Bill McKibben but this article gives me pause. Thanks for posting it.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Daryl Byron West says:

    Well blogged Skipper ! Will check out these links ‘dreckly’. Keep me in the feed shipmate.

    Like

  3. Kevin Hester says:

    David Wasdell rubbishes the safety of 2C on Radio Ecoshock, excellent show.
    http://www.ecoshock.org/2016/07/best-of-radio-ecoshock-summer-shows.html

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Kevin Hester says:

    ” Some of those surveyed who said the 2C target would be met confessed they did so more out of hope rather than belief. “As a mother of young children I choose to believe this, and work hard toward it,” one said.”This optimism is not primarily due to scientific facts, but to hope,” said another.
    Hoping against reason is not good parenting or leadership.
    I revert, again, to my position as a yacht skipper.
    When I know unequivocally that my vessel has foundered It is my duty to Immediately inform the crew and instruct them on how we will prepare and inform the passengers. First a strategy, then inform everyone and then implementation of that strategy.
    Our ‘leaders’, if you could call them that have decided to lie to us and then the large NGO’s have decided to play along with the charade.
    This fellow passenger / skipper refuses to play that game.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/apr/14/global-warming-target-2c?CMP=share_btn_fb

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Kevin Hester says:

    The synopsis that we need to declare a climate emergency is spot on.Looking at the consequences of crossing so many tipping points isn’t. We will see a domino effect as the great unraveling unfolds and there will be a multitude of unforeseen reactions and they will all be very, very bad.
    I note that the presenter doesn’t talk about How we will draw down carbon as that technology doesn’t exist and we are losing more forests than we are planting.
    Fantasy technology will not save us.
    1C is not safe so 2C will be catastrophic, 4C is an extinction even for us all.
    http://www.climatecodered.org/2016/09/why-is-emergency-scale-action-necessary.html

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Kevin Hester says:

    “Bill McGuire, professor emeritus of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London, is most emphatic. “My personal view,” he says, “is that there is not a cat in hell’s chance.”
    Spot on.
    If you want links to the multitude of university’s doing climate research there are heaps embedded in this link!
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/19/cat-in-hells-chance-why-losing-battle-keep-global-warming-2c-climate-change

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Kevin Hester says:

    “This doesn’t let us off the hook. Indeed, the idea that 2C is somehow safe is itself a pernicious bit of climate denial.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/06/trump-world-climate-change-denial?CMP=share_btn_fb

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Kevin Hester says:

    Cory Morningstar who writes at Wrong Kind of Green cuts to the chase on the lie that is a safe 2C and the role that the large NGO’s are playing in the perpetuation of 2C being safe.
    Follow the money.

    Liked by 1 person

  9. […] the biosphere. For many years we have been sold the lie that a global warming target of 2C was both Safe and Achievable  It was never safe nor achievable under the yoke of Industrial civilisation and unfettered […]

    Like

  10. Kevin Hester says:

    In 2005 Dr James E Hansen said 1C was the safe maximum.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. sheilach2 says:

    Our RULERS have made it virtually IMPOSSIBLE for us to reduce our carbon emissions. They have been fighting us for generations to prohibit or make illegal sex education, birth control & especially abortions.
    The ever growing & ignored, ‘elephant’ in the room, overpopulation, has doomed us already, our RELIGIOUS RULERS continue to push for more DAM GROWTH of consumption & population, that is INSANE!
    On the radio, I hear from one islamic women after another complain how her & her seven or so children can’t get enough food, shelter or education, that is our problem too many people who thanks to their religion & their religion besotted rulers have forced them to keep having more children by law but their sincerely held beliefs will not protect them from food shortages, water shortages or climate change, their innocent children will be the first to suffer.
    Christianity is just as guilty as Islam when it comes to forcing women to produce more children than they want or can care for.

    Liked by 1 person

  12. Kevin Hester says:

    “Without abrupt action to restrict higher emissions “it will become exceedingly difficult to keep warming below a target smaller than 2° C” they write. Furthermore, they say, the supposedly safe “limit” for warming of 2 degrees Celsius—which has driven global climate negotiations for years—is too high. Anything more than 1 degree C could imperil the Earth’s ecosystems and societies. Hansen in particular is concerned about inaction imposing a crushing burden on today’s children, as reflected in the paper’s title: “Assessing Dangerous Climate Change: Required Reductions of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature.”
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/safe-limit-for-global-warming/

    Like

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Kevin Hester
Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and planning Professor Guy McPherson’s November 2016 NZ and Australian speaking tour which is a follow up to the 2014 speaking tour. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water. I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.
My Submission to the Ministry of the Environment
Kevin Hester, Dropping Anchor in an Exponential World
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