Action is the Antidote to Despair – Acceptance Will Set You Free

As the climate and extinction crises accelerates our descent into the abyss, many of us are seeking a meaningful existence as we manage our own grief and more importantly that of our youth, which will very soon become our greatest pre-collapse challenge.Don’t get caught lying to them.
My co-host on Nature Bats Last and I are regularly accused of ‘Giving Up’ because we have synthesized and accepted the science that we are now in the non-linear stage of the Sixth Great Extinction. “Giving up” for me equates to co-hosting NBL with Guy, volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery on a rewilding project for our “Little Slice of Paradise” Rakino Island and working with a group to create a “Marine Protection Area” in the Hauraki Gulf adjacent to my home. It’s important to carry on doing the right thing without being attached to the outcome.
Any cursory, unbiased glance at my and Guy’s actions will immediately dispell the accusation that we have ‘Given Up’.
Why do Guy and I do what we do? We believe that the youth deserve the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. There will be no ‘sugar coating’ of the sixth great extinction on our watch. The youth’s futures have been stolen from them,surely they deserve the truth at least? The cold hard truth is that the real ‘safe’ level of anthropogenic warming was probably only 0.5C, not 1, not 1.5, not 2C.
The recent discovery of enormous methane ‘Pingo’s’ in the Arctic being yet another example of the rapidity the biosphere is unraveling at. The cognitive dissonance being shown by our so called leaders, who within a capitalist paradigm have no clue what to say or do is plain to see. Effectively they are literally behaving like stunned deer in the head lights of a runaway train. Our one and only space ship is about to crash and burn and there is no pilot in the cockpit. Brace for impact.
Here’s an example from the New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Watch her squirm whilst criticising XR activists for holding up the traffic. So much for her grandiose declaration that climate change is our ‘Nuclear Free’ moment.   Dear Jacinda, this is a Climate Emergency
Because no one in power is prepared to accept the true severity of the unfolding collapse, and the large NGO’s are lying by omission, we are as a society and culture living a lie. Sending young people off to school or university to train as cogs in the wheel of capitalism which is just about to collapse is a dereliction of duty and in my mind equates to child abuse. Check out the work of my friends Oksana and Joey at The Deep Green Bush School for a rare dose of reality in the education sphere. Personally I would scrap the entire school curriculum and teach first aid and survival skills.
The “Extinction Rebellion” movement has successfully motivated many people onto the streets but they are simply begging those same delusional politicians to ‘Act Now on Climate Change’ and do what pray tell ?
The entire paradigm is being controlled and steered to make it look like something is happening when in reality it is deflecting the youth away from the true severity of the predicament we are confronted with. Guilt tripping the youth about their carbon footprints and pretending that activism will right this sinking ship is intellectually and morally bankrupt, much like the culture itself.
Their time would be better spent developing survival skills than painting banners. I’ll quote Jem Bendell of “Deep Adaptation” fame who interestingly turned down our invitation for him to be our guest on NBL: “Getting busy with action can be a distraction from full acceptance of our predicament”.
Guy and I have toured Aotearoa New Zealand twice discussing the severity of the crisis as we see it. Below is a discussion we had at the end of the 2016 tour;

My recent interview on Waiheke Radio discussing my activism and actions as we face collapse is embedded here
Rakino

The photo above is of Rakino Island taken from the North. Photo credit Scott Peters.
Additional reading on this theme;

We’re About to Become People Fighting Desperately Fighting For Survival on a Dying Planet, and It’s Not Going to Be Pretty
Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change

 Extinction Foretold, Extinction Ignored

If you want to go down fighting as I do, tell the truth, surely the youth deserve that and the right to decide what to do with the little time that is left for them.

Posted in Climate Grief, Extinction Rebellion, Methane, Nature Bats Last, The Sixth Great Extinction

Irreversible Runaway Abrupt Climate Change Unfolding Now. Not long off in the future.

In the last few days articles have been appearing in the corporate media detailing methane releases in the Arctic with the East Siberian Arctic shelf which is close to many of our hearts and minds due to it’s shallowness and vulnerability to destabilisation of the carbon and methane clathrate reserves reported on by Dr Natalia Shakova and her colleague Dr Igor Semiletov and by the worlds leading expert Dr Peter Wadhams.
“There are large uncertainties about tipping points that may be ahead of us, but for some systems, especially biological evidence in the oceans, we have already evidence that the tipping point has been passed.”
“Professor Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at the University of Cambridge, said the report had failed to mention the “very serious threat” of methane rising from the seabed of the Arctic continental shelf as its permafrost thaws, potentially contributing large amounts of extra greenhouse gas.”

Methane Fire

Methane Bubbles

Professor McPherson and I covered “Tipping Points” in the August  episode our NBL interview with Andrew Glikson from The Australian National University

I take one exception with this paragraph in The Telegraph article ; “The planet has warmed to 1C above pre-industrial temperatures, and around 90 per cent of that excess heat has been absorbed by the oceans, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said.” That is simply not true and down plays the severity of the crisis in real time. The IPCC is playing fast and loose with baseline dates that have beed covered on this blog previously and by  my esteemed colleague   Sam Carana from The Arctic News Blog who had us at 1.73C above the 1750 baseline in April 2018

“Unveiling the latest report in Monaco on Wednesday, panel-member Valerie Masson-Delmotte, said: “Climate change is already irreversible due to the heat uptake in the ocean.”

“We can’t go back, whatever we do with our emissions.”

“According to the new forecasts, approximately 70 per cent of the world’s permafrost will thaw if emissions continue to rise. This in turn could free up “tens to hundreds of billions of tonnes” of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere, further heating the planet.”

“Scientists in Siberia have discovered an area of sea that is “boiling” with methane, with bubbles that can be scooped from the water with buckets. Researchers on an expedition to the East Siberian Sea said the “methane fountain” was unlike anything they had seen before, with concentrations of the gas in the region to be six to seven times higher than the global average.”
The primary significance of this response form Igor Semiletov saying the discharges were “unlike anything they had seen before” is a very, very disturbing development. Very few scientist have his level of field research.

“The team, led by Igor Semiletov, from Tomsk Polytechnic University in Russia, traveled to an area of the Eastern Arctic previously known to produce methane fountains. They were studying the environmental consequences of permafrost thawing beneath the ocean.”
For those of us researchers following the seminal work of Dr’s Natalia Shakova and Igor Semiletov this latest data whilst not being surprising is terrifying in it’s implications.
Have a listen to this seminal presentation from DR Shakova;

Finally this sailor will give you an indication of how large there methane plumes can be;
A TRAWLER found at the bottom of the North Sea may have sunk after being trapped in a giant gas bubble.”
“Scientists from the University of Sunderland discovered the fishing boat off Aberdeen, 450ft below the surface, on a patch of sea bed known as Witch’s Hole. They think the crew were the victims of a rare and terrifying phenomenon.” Read more ›

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Arctic Sea Ice, Early Stage Runaway, Feedback loops, Methane

Abrupt Climate Change,the Nuclear Threat, Methane in the ESAS: Robert Hunziker interviewed on Nature Bats Last

The October episode of Nature Bats Last featured a discussion between NBL co-hosts Professor Guy McPherson, Kevin Hester and US independent journalist Robert Hunziker.

The show is embedded here;

Robert discussed non-linearity in the climate system which he has covered in an article published on October 2nd, 2017 titled The Great Acceleration Death Trap
“If I take 35 linear steps, I’ll barely reach the coffee stand outside of this room. What happens if I take 35 exponential steps?  I’d reach Copenhagen after 21 steps. Three more steps, I’m in New York. Another two steps and I encircle the entire planet. And, if I add another nine steps to my 35, I reach planet Mars.”
Not understanding or worse still willfully ignoring the nonlinear nature of our predicament ensures the failure of any and all remediation or preparation undertaken. This is a major issue I take with Greenpeace, 350.ORG and the main ‘Green Parties”, willfully ignoring this aspect of the predicament is morally and scientifically bankrupt.

Robert discussed at length the never ending nightmare that is Fukushima Daiichi.
One of Roberts numerous articles on the single worst industrial disaster of all time is embedded here; “Fukushima’s Radioactive Water Crisis

I quoted Jem Bendell in the interview,
“Getting busy with action can be a distraction from full acceptance of our predicament”. I respectively think Jem’s having his own struggle with ‘acceptance’.
Jem discusses the issue of nuclear power plants after collapse unfolds here

Robert has written previously about The Dangerous Methane Mystery   most especially in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. Watch the interview with Dr Natalia Shakova who Robert mentioned here; Methane Hydrates extended interview with Dr Natalia Shakova

Methane Bubbles

NBL Read more ›

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Nuclear Threats, Robert Hunziker

The “Belt and Road Initiative”and much more.Paving the Road to Collapse and Hospice.

There is no slowing down this juggernaut. We’re already off the cliff and they still have their pedal to the metal.
“The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) simply blows out of the water anything else that’s been attempted in human history.”
“As currently planned, it will involve some 7,000 separate infrastructure or extractive industry projects scattered across 70-odd nations, with a total price-tag of $8 trillion. It’ll span half the planet — from Asia to Africa, Europe and the South Pacific. It’ll affect every facet of human endeavor, in one way or another.”
It will be business as usual on steroids. Covered previously on this blog below;

Buckle Up and Cut the Crap, we’re on the ‘Belt Road’ to Armageddon.

Chris the Natural Progressive and I discuss the Belt and Road Initiative and the role it will play in the ongoing collapse of the biosphere in the video below. I don’t believe much of this project will get very far before collapse unfolds. My main point being that capitalism and the dominant culture will carry on pedal to the metal, full steam ahead. In the August episode of Nature Bats Last we interviewed Arthur Keller about the coming collapse here; “Collapse the Only Realistic Scenario”>

Chris and I discussed the issue of Hospice. I’ve previously written about Hospice here;
More information about the rapid stratospheric warming and destabilisation I mentioned is embedded here;
The Roger Hallam from Extinction Rebellion interview we mentioned is embedded here

Think for a moment about what life is like for the people of The Bahamas, the trauma for those who survived, the ecological chaos of the pollutants in the flood waters poisoning wells, aquifers, rivers and the adjacent oceans and all the flooded flat lands. The other animals affected.
Their fate, is all our fate, seize the moment.

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Climate Grief, Hospice, Nature Bats Last

Collapse: The Only Realistic Scenario

This months guest on Nature Bats Last is Arthur Keller author of the You Tube Presentation “Collapse: The Only Realistic Scenario”.
Kevin and Guy were joined by Arthur Keller, who studies system dynamics. Initially a rocket scientist, Keller has become an author, screenwriter, and keynote speaker. We lost Arthur for a few moments but the technicians at the studio burst into life, recovered the signal with him and he saw out an interesting hour with us.

The episode is embedded here;

NBL

Arthur’s seminal You Tube Presentation: Collapse: The Only Realistic Scenario

I mentioned the work of Albert Bartlett and his contention that “The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race is our inability to understand the exponential Function” I’ve embedded that presentation for further reference

This interview continues a theme on NBL of non-linear changes we are witnessing. Grasping the significance of non-linearity is crucial to this predicament. Our previous guest Dr Andrew Glikson has a similar contention. That interview and corroborating evidence is embedded here;

Professor Paul Ehrlich was interviewed previously on this blog about his position on the coming collapse. That discussion is embedded here:

Good luck everyone

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Arthur Keller, Collapse, Nature Bats Last, Professor Guy McPherson

Cascading Consequences of the Loss of Arctic Sea Ice

“Losing the remaining Arctic sea ice and its ability to reflect incoming solar energy back to space would be equivalent to adding one trillion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, on top of the 2.4 trillion tons emitted since the Industrial Age, according to current and former researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego.”

“At current rates, this roughly equates to 25 years of global CO2 emissions.”

Research Highlight: Loss of Arctic’s Reflective Sea Ice Will Advance Global Warming by 25 Years  

“Algae that live in and under the sea ice play a much greater role for the Arctic food web than previously assumed. In a new study, biologists of the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research showed that not only animals that live directly under the ice thrive on carbon produced by so-called ice algae. Even species that mostly live at greater depth depend to a large extent on carbon from these algae. This also means that the decline of the Arctic sea ice may have far-reaching consequences for the entire food web of the Arctic Ocean. Their results have been published online now in the journal Limnology & Oceanography.”
“We now know that ice algae play a much more important role for the pelagic food web than previously assumed. This finding also means, however, that the decline of the ice could have a more profound impact on Arctic marine animals, including fish, seals and ultimately also polar bears, than hitherto suspected,” says Doreen Kohlbach.”
Ice algae: The engine of life in the central Arctic Ocean

“Experts estimate the washed-up whales represent just 10% of the total number of the dead, with the rest sinking into the sea unnoticed by humans.”
“At least 81 gray whale corpses have washed ashore in California, Oregon, Washington and Alaska since Jan. 1. If tallies from Mexico and Canada are added, the number of stranded gray whales reaches about 160 and counting, said Michael Milstein, spokesman for NOAA Fisheries.”
Thousands of whales are dying. Scientists have run out of public beaches for the carcasses to rot

In the August episode of Nature Bats Last our guest Dr Andrew Glikson discussed his recent work titled: Beyond Climate Tipping Points: Greenhouse Gas Levels Exceed the Stability Limit of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets.
The pace of global warming has been grossly underestimated. As the world keeps increasing its carbon emissions rising in 2018 to a record 33.1 billion ton COper year, the atmospheric greenhouse gas level has now exceeded 560 ppm (parts per million) CO2equivalent, namely when methane and nitric oxide are included. This level surpasses the stability threshold of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The term “climate change“ is thus no longer appropriate, since what is happening in the atmosphere-ocean system, accelerating over the last 70 years or so, is an abrupt calamity on a geological dimension threatening nature and civilization. Ignoring what the science says, the powers-that-be are presiding over the sixth mass extinction of species, including humanity.”  

“As conveyed by leading scientists “Climate change is now reaching the end-game, where very soon humanity must choose between taking unprecedented action or accepting that it has been left too late and bear the consequences”

“Black carbon particles from  Siberian forest fires, fall down to the arctic ice. As these particles are black, they absorb sunlight and can accelerate ice melt if found in high enough concentrations. Our graphic shows black carbon concentrations, where high values can be seen emerging from the Siberian forest fires, circulating into the polar circle.”
Forest fires in Siberia, sending ash into the Arctic.

For additional day to day, up to date evidence of our headlong rush towards a Blue Ocean Event, I recommend readers follow Zack Labe on Twitter
and Sam Carana at the Arctic News Blogspot

The marine food web isn’t going to collapse, it is collapsing, now, live and direct.
The dominant culture and the corporate media are pretending to cover the unraveling of the biosphere but what they aren’t telling you about  is the rapidity of the collapse and how the domino effect of crossing these tipping points triggers cascading consequences.
I’ll be surprised if industrial civilisation survives an ice free Arctic summer and we might be only a year or two away from that eventuality.
One final comment I would make about the impending ice free Arctic sea is that we don’t need to have crossed the official definition of an Ice Free Arctic  to see the 50 gigatonne methane discharge from the clathrates as hypothesised by Dr Natalia Shakova et al. That could burst forth at any moment.
Next months guest on Nature Bats Last is Arthur Keller. We will be discussing his presentation titled “Collapse: The Only Realistic Scenario”. That episode can be found after broadcast at the Nature Bats Last archive at PRN.FM
Feel free to leave a comment below and to subscribe to the blog

Good luck everyone, we are sure going to need it.

 

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Arctic Sea Ice, Collapse, Dr Andrew Glikson, Feedback loops, Methane, Nature Bats Last, Zack Labe

Tipping Points in the Earth Climate System. Dr Andrew Glikson returns to Nature Bats Last

Todays guest on Nature Bats Last was Dr Andrew Glikson from the Australian National University. Dr Andrew Glikson is a geologist living in Australia. He is an Earth scientist and paleo-climatologist currently serving as Visiting Fellow at the Australian National University. He is the author of dozens of articles and ten books, notably including his 2015 masterpiece Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene. 

Put your feet up, relax and enjoy, episode 129 of Nature Bats Last which is embedded here;
NBL

I’ve posted below corroborating links to the discussion.
We discussed Dr Glikson’s recent article titled: Beyond Climate Tipping Points: Greenhouse Gas Levels Exceed the Stability Limit of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

I additionally quoted an article from Scripts Institution of Oceanography titled ; Research Highlight: Loss of Arctic’s Reflective Sea Ice Will Advance Global Warming by 25 Years

“The 4.3 million hectare fire – an area now larger than Denmark – is contributing significantly to climate change.
Since the beginning of the year, a total of 13.1 million hectares has burned.” A climate catastrophe that can not be stopped by human means! Russian fires now bigger than Denmark: 13 million hectares gone

I mentioned that both Dr Glikson and Professor McPherson are concerned about the methane threat and how they both respect the work of Dr Natalia Shakova and her colleagues. A link to a recent paper from Dr Shakova titled ” Understanding the Permafrost–Hydrate System and Associated Methane Releases in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf”can be found here;  A video interview with her courtesy of Nick Breeze is embedded here;
As well as discussing the scientific aspects of what we are witnessing, we discussed the psychological roller coaster we are all on and Dr Gliksons’ Poetry and the role it plays in absorbing and expressing the psychological challenges this knowledge of the predicament we find ourselves in entails. Finding an emotional and artistic outlet  we believe is imperative.
Mine is to volunteer at the not for profit Rakino Island Nursery on a rewilding program. It’s both my “Antidote to despair” as Edward Abbey wrote but also proof that just because I recognise the severity of the multiple crises we face it doesn’t mean I have ‘given up’, an accusation often leveled at Professor McPherson and myself.

Guy spoke about “Scientific Reticence”, he has covered it previously on his You Tube Channel and blog Nature Bats Last   Here is an excellent edit on the subject via the Tim Bob Channel  featuring Guy.

“At the risk of seeming ridiculous let me say that the true revolutionary is guided by a great feeling of love. It is impossible to think of a genuine revolutionary lacking this quality.” Ernesto Che Guevarra.

Feel free to share this blog with family and friends, hit the subscribe button for regular updates.
Look after each other, be gentle, time is short, Only Love Remains
Q&A: Dr Andrew Glikson on the Plutocene age

Dr Andrew Glikson

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Dr Andrew Glikson, Professor Guy McPherson
Kevin Hester

Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water.  I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.

My Submission to the Ministry of the Environment
Kevin Hester, Dropping Anchor in an Exponential World
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