The New Climate Denial Position is to deny Abrupt Climate Change.

“Because of social taboos, despair at the state of our world and fear for our future are rarely acknowledged. The suppression of despair, like that of any deep recurring response, contributes to the numbing of the psyche”.Joanna Macey: The Greatest Danger

The author of this blog has decided to have the conversations no one wants to have, obviously this is not a marketing proposition.
“Without hope, goes the truism, we will give up. And yet optimism about the future is wishful thinking, says Hillman. He believes that accepting that our civilisation is doomed could make humanity rather like an individual who recognises he is terminally ill. Such people rarely go on a disastrous binge; instead, they do all they can to prolong their lives.”
‘We’re doomed’: Mayer Hillman on the climate reality no one else will dare mention.

Guilt tripping young people that they have to fix the unfixable is unconscionable .
As long as the military industrial complex rages around the world all the squirly light bulbs, solar panels and wind generators on the planet count for nought. The issue isn’t should we use these faux ‘renewables’ but what we expect the outcome to be. By all means lower your carbon footprint just don’t try and bullshit us that it will make a measurable difference. The Second Law of Thermodynamics; The Gaping Hole in the Middle of the Circular Economy
The Military Industrial Complex

Almost no one in the affluent (Effluent ) west wants to give up the overseas holidays enough to extend their childrens lives: Booming tourism emits 8 percent of greenhouse gases, study shows  “And on current trends, the trillion-dollar tourism industry will emit 6.5 billion tonnes of carbon emissions by 2025, the review said, making it one of the fastest-growing source of the planet-warming gases that governments are trying to cut.” Have a great holiday kids, it could well be your last.

For quite possibly the best brief round up on abrupt climate change check out the following explanation: Overview Of Abrupt Anthropogenic Climate Change
“The Great Dying wiped out at least 90% of the species on Earth due to an abrupt rise in global-average temperature about 252 million years ago. The vast majority of complex life became extinct. Based on information from the most conservative sources available, Earth is headed for a similar or higher global-average temperature in the very near future. The recent and near-future rises in temperature are occurring and will occur at least three orders of magnitude faster than the worst of all prior Mass Extinctions. Habitat for human animals is disappearing throughout the world, and abrupt climate change has barely begun.” The Real Truth About Health

We are in the early stages of a runaway event that is happening at an order of magnitude faster that ever before, expect the unexpected, sooner than the corporate media is telling you.
In next months episode of Nature Bats Last I will be interviewing Professor Paul Ehrlich on his book “The Annihilation of Nature”. 
You can access the Nature Bats Last archive here;
I refuse to be the last generation of elder to lie to the youth.

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Military, Near Term Human Extinction--NTHE, Travels

Are Black Swan events in the Climate Crisis Imminent?

Tragically for the biosphere and the continuation of complex life on this planet the “Precautionary Principle’ has been cast to the winds as we plunge headlong, full speed ahead into the climate / extinction crisis, not only by failing to meet the pathetically weak aspirations of the non binding Cop21 Climate Agreement in Paris, we fail to allow for the unknown or so called “Black Swan” events that will almost certainly continue to manifest as we navigate blindly through these unchartered, peril filled waters.

This blue water, ocean sailor can’t believe the risks that are being taken by failing to follow the precautionary Principle” and not preparing for possible worst case scenarios that could literally unfold any day now. The failure of the scientific community to convey the urgency of the crisis is a dereliction of duty.

Black Swan courtesy of William Bibb.jpg
Image courtesy of William Bibb a former guest on Nature Bats Last

We have increased the atmospheric loading of H2O relative to the CO2 forced warming we have dumped into the atmosphere and more significantly, into the oceans, every second of every minute of every hour of every day, week, month and year for the last 300yrs and there is no respite insight. This feedback loop and it’s consequences are largely ignored.
As well as losing heat and water vapour into the atmosphere, as we wipe out the marine food web with acidification and the lunacy of vacuming up the Krill, we lose the carbon sequestering species and the oceans become carbon emitters rather than sinks. That feedback is non-linear just like the sea ice albedo feedback loop.

With regards to the Arctic Sea Ice and it’s resultant feedback loop, normally sober commentators describe us as having “Fallen off a Cliff”. 
““We’ve fallen off a cliff,” said Rick Thoman, a climatologist at the National Weather Service in Alaska, in a tweet.
When I asked former guest on my radio show, Nature Bats Last on the Progressive Radio Network Professor Andrew Glickson, “How long before we see “Canfield Oceans” he replied  “We’re seeing them now”.

Professor Glickson emailed me a copy of his recent article; The Methane Time Bomb and the Future of the Biosphere:

The Arctic Sea Ice situation is extremely dire and the concern many of us have is the potential release of the 50 gigatonne burst of methane predicted by Dr Natalia Shakova mentioned in the above hyperlinked article “The Methane Time Bomb”.
“President Niinisto in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’

When, not if, we get a large, anomalous discharge of methane during this summer melt season or another substantial surprise, like the stalling or worse still the collapse of the AMOC we will sooner or later reach a tipping point when the public at large will realise that we have crossed the rubicon and are heading into the abyss. Very, very quickly we could and imho will see a collapse of confidence in our civilisation.

Another former guest on Nature Bats Last Professor Paul Ehrlich recently predicted in a Guardian article: “A shattering collapse of civilisation is a “near certainty” in the next few decades due to humanity’s continuing destruction of the natural world that sustains all life on Earth.

We are one “Black Swan” event away from seeing the collapse of industrial civilisation and the end to complex life on this planet. Don’t for a nano-second believe we have a decade or two, the tipping point could arrive tomorrow or could have unfolded by the time the reader finds this humble contribution to the debate.
Talking about the worst case scenarios we are facing is considered alarmist yet ignoring them is mal-practice.

As I chronicle the unraveling of the biosphere, I am finding more and more credible experts coming to the same conclusions: From a lecture titled “Stop Fascism: Chris Hedges in Portland Oregon”.
“But even as we stand on the cusp of extinction we lack the ability to free ourselves from the myth of human progress” ( at the 38 minute mark).” “There is a familiar check list for extinction, we are ticking every one of them .”
Normally  Chris Hedges skirts around our imminent extinction but not today. In this great presentation he calls out the cowboy capitalism that has ground the living planet into dust. Hedges also ridicules Donald J. Trump as the “Idiot in chief”.
I’ve added this presentation to the comments section of my blog post on Chris Hedges titled ;
The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies.

Additional reading on this subject below;
‘We’re doomed’: Mayer Hillman on the climate reality no one else will dare mention”

 

For one of the best roundups of the situation we face check out this brief synopsis: “Overview Of Abrupt Anthropogenic Climate Change”

 

The Lunatics are in charge of our sinking ship

On the 25th of May 2018 I am editing this post to include a link from“The Collapse Chronicles” to include the following excellent interview: “John Casti: “I’m Not Optimistic that the World 30 years from now is one I want to wake up into”. His timelines I believe are very ‘optimistic’ but the pathways and analysis is spot on. I will email him and request an interview myself for my radio show Natur aBats Last on PRN.FM

May the force be with you, you sure are going to need it. Soon the living will envy the dead.

 

 

 

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Collapse, Feedback loops, Methane, Near Term Human Extinction--NTHE

Dr Sandra Kahn and Professor Paul Ehrlich tell us why we should shut our mouths in “JAWS”: The Story of a Hidden Epidemic.

The May episode of Nature Bats Last featuring an interview with Sandra Kahn and Paul R. Ehrlich is embedded here:

“There’s a silent epidemic in western civilization, and it is right under our noses. Our jaws are getting smaller and our teeth crooked and crowded, creating not only aesthetic challenges but also difficulties with breathing. Modern orthodontics has persuaded us that braces and oral devices can correct these problems. While teeth can certainly be straightened, what about the underlying causes of this rapid shift in oral evolution and the health risks posed by obstructed airways?”

“Sandra Kahn and Paul R. Ehrlich, a pioneering orthodontist and a world-renowned evolutionist, respectively, present the biological, dietary, and cultural changes that have driven us toward this major health challenge. They propose simple adjustments that can alleviate this developing crisis, as well as a major alternative to orthodontics that promises more significant long-term relief. Jaws will change your life. Every parent should read this book.”

Dr Sandra Kahn, Professor Paul Ehr and Kevin Hester discussed the ongoing extinction crisis and I quoted the recent article in The Guardian titled: ‘We’re doomed’ : Mayer Hillman on the climate reality no one else will dare mention.

“Without hope, goes the truism, we will give up. And yet optimism about the future is wishful thinking, says Hillman. He believes that accepting that our civilisation is doomed could make humanity rather like an individual who recognises he is terminally ill. Such people rarely go on a disastrous binge; instead, they do all they can to prolong their lives.”

Paul Ehrlich:‘Collapse of civilisation is a near certainty within decades’

Guilt tripping young people that they have to fix the unfixable is unconscionable.
As long as the military industrial complex rages around the planet all the squirly light bulbs, solar panels and wind farms on the planet count for nought.
Let’s not be the last generation of elder to lie to the youth about the severity of the multitude of exestential crisis they face.

JAWS

Posted in Uncategorized

Connecting the dots on the unfolding 6th Great Extinction

Todays guest on  Nature Bats Last is evolutionary biologist Professor Guy McPherson former host of the show. This latest episode is embedded here, please bare with the brief opening audio hiccups!

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Professor McPherson and I discussed the tragic die off of Little Blue Penguins on the coast line around my home on Rakino Island and the Noises Island Group “Penguin habitat destroyed, chicks wiped out by storms battering New Zealand coastline” Sadly it’s adults as well as chicks that are sucumbing! The marine ecosystem is collapsing on my coastline now, not long off in the future.
“In 2014, one of New Zealand’s most respected scientists, Alison MacDiarmid, commented that, “Rock lobster was the third most trophically important benthic invertebrate group in the region [Hauraki Gulf ] before human arrival. Rock lobster are now the least important”. “Backing her is another scientist, marine ecologist Tim Haggit. In 2016 Haggit said the numbers of crayfish are so low in the Gulf that they no longer contribute to the marine ecology. Crayfish are “functionally extinct”.
A link to the marine heatwave in Tasman Sea breaking records which we discussed is embedded here

Professor McPherson mentioned the danger of a sea ice free Arctic occuring at any time and I quoted President Niinisto of Finland speaking in  North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’
Central to the discussion was the collapse of the global insect populations first covered on this blog in the November 2017 interview with Professor Paul Ehrlich.
Subsequently we have discovered that this aspect of the extinction event is also happening in Australia, France and no doubt world wide. Not only are we losing insects we are losing scientists to monitor the event: Fewer Scientists Are Studying Insects Here’s Why That’s So Dangerous
‘The sound of crickets could become a thing of the past’, imagine that?
Another important presentation from Professor Paul Ehrlich titled: The Present Mass Extinction: How do the Tropics Fit from which the quote about “Blizzards of moths” was derived.
“The 2016 version of WWF’s biennial Living Planet Report, published Thursday, found a 58 percent overall decline in vertebrate populations from 1970 to 2012, the latest year with available data. The nonprofit warned that if current trends continue, the world could lose more than two-thirds of wildlife by 2020.”
In case anyone thinks that the dominant culture has any intention to slow down the armageddon: “Within the next two years, more than 60 million acres of monarch habitat will be sprayed with an herbicide that’s extremely harmful to milkweed, the only food for monarch caterpillars, according to a new analysis by the Center for Biological Diversity.” Via Desdemona Despair

“Global energy-related carbon emissions rose to a historic high of 32.5 gigatons last year, after three years of being flat, due to higher energy demand and the slowing of energy efficiency improvements, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.”
So much for us taking capitalisms foot off the pedal! 16 of the world’s largest ships can produce as much lung-clogging sulphur pollution as all the world’s cars

Also mentioned via Kevin Lister the author of The Vortex of Violence and Why we are losing the war on climate change:
The UN Talanoa Diaolgue is the key initiative that came from COP21, which said that “ambition must be increased on climate change to limit temperature rises to 1.5degC,” and it is the attempt to garner ideas and ways forward to this end.”
“Our submission to this has just gone in; a summary of the key points in the 70 pages that make it up are:
Atmospheric CO2 is already at unsurvivable levels which will lead to sea level rises of up to 30m and catastrophic temperature rises, yet it is still increasing at a rate that is faster than exponential.There is an unspoken paradox with climate change; as climate change intensifies then the increasing competitive rivalries between nations that it causes prevents the co-operation needed to agree to the mutual sacrifices needed for a zero carbon economy.The coal reefs started dying and the Arctic polar ice cap started melting in 1980 when CO2 was 336ppm, thus the world then was already well on the way to disaster. So, planning for a 1.50C temperature rise is a suicide note; this target needs to be replaced with a new target, which is that the maximum temperate rises should not exceed 0.5OC over the pre-industrial baseline. ANY temperature rise will lead to catastrophic heating due to the interacting nature of the amplifying effects such as methane, sea ice melt and increased water vapour content, so if the temperature increases to 1.50C (which is where we most likely are today) it will lead to unstoppable temperature increases. It also means that even the more radical 0.50C target that we propose could be too high.”
“NO measurable levels of CO2 have been sequestered by natural processes since the start of the industrial revolution and natural processes will take approximately 250,000 years to return the planet to an upper CO2 threshold of stability (approx 300ppm), and even at this level of CO2, then sea levels would be at least 10 meters higher than today. So even the emergence of a zero-carbon economy tomorrow would not help due to the persistence of legacy CO2 in the atmosphere and oceans.”
“There is a very high level of hysteresis (irreversibility) in the climate system caused by ocean heat content and ice albedo loss, but in particular due to the logarithmic relationship between CO2 and radiative forcing. The implications of this have been completely ignored by policy makers.”
“Proposed methods for CO2 removal from the atmosphere that the COP temperature projections are based on, such as BECCS and DAC are so fundamentally flawed, they are likely to add more CO2 to the atmosphere than they will take out.”
“The only way of removing CO2 is through bio enhancement, such as increasing carbon content in soils and biomass in the oceans, but natural limits means this will most likely take thousands of years to remove sufficient CO2 for a return to stability.”
“To survive we must immediately start a solar radiation management program, and marine cloud brightening is probably the only option, in as much that it is scalable, controllable and sustainable over long periods. The scale of the cooling needed will increase at least exponentially with delay, and as we will soon be at the point where the climatic changes under way will be irreversible then there is a moral imperative to make an immediate start.”
“The techniques that we develop now for climate restoration (cooling and bio enabled CO2 sequestration) must be capable of continued operation by future societies that have become dysfunctional due to the pressures imposed on them by climate change.”

Here’s the link to the Deep Green Bush School where I will be speaking next month:

To explain the dire predicament we find ourselves in Robin Westenra has just published this article showing with data from Sam Caranas’ excellent Arctic News blog that we are now at 1.73 C above the true baseline

Professor McPherson was interviewed for an article in the New York Magazine titled “The Unhabitable Earth” This article went on to become the most read article ever published by the magazine. In a total breach of journalist ethics David Wallace Wells failed to credit Professor McPhersons input.

At NBL we acknowledge what is happening in our dying biosphere and we refuse to lie to the youth.We are sleep walking to extinction. The true severity of the crisis can only be understood when you “Connect the Dots” and also remember that we do not know the whole story and the unknowns can only make the situation worse than we know. We are staring at the ultimate Black Swan event, one like no other.
Many thanks to the callers who phoned in with interesting, emotional responses. Managing our grief going forward will be one of our greatest challenges.
We’re Sleepwalking Ino A Mass Extinction’ Say Scientists

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Collapse, Near Term Human Extinction--NTHE, Podcasts

What to Do at the End of the World?

I didn’t write the title to this article but it sums up the tone and direction of the conversation perfectly when considering the attack the living planet is under!
I was interviewed recently by Kollibri terre Sonnenblume for his website and then the article was subsequently published on Counter Punch.
Sonnenblume: There’s very little awareness of the United State’s imperial status within the United States.

Hester: Yes, it’s extraordinary for us anti-imperialists on the outside, looking in. It’s incredible. But one of the points I make all the time about imperialism is that you can’t be an environmentalist and not be anti-imperialist because the US Pentagon is the single largest consumer of fossil fuels on the planet, so the carbon footprint of the US military machine is enormous. And then there’s the massive carbon footprint of all the nations responding to it in kind and warming up. So the warmongering on the planet is probably the single largest individual contributor to climate change.

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Interested in more? Click here to go to the article on the Counter Punch Website

Previously on this blog, I have interviewed Professor Paul Ehrlich about the collapse of the flying insect population in Germany. The latest information from Europe is that the same is now unfolding in France and no doubt across the continent.
I lived in France in the late 80’s and when staying in a lock keepers house on a disused canal in the country side, whilst sitting around reading, I noticed there was neither birdsong, birds nor insects. I asked Auvray Fabrice my host why and he pointed to the vast fields of rape seed and mono cropping around us and he casually mentioned it was all bathed in herbicides and pesticides and he had watched all the birds and insects disappear. That was 30 years ago!! The situation is now infinitely worse and deteriorating quickly.
In Professor Paul Ehrlich’s interview on my radio show “Nature Bats Last” on PRN.FM I questioned Paul about his latest paper titled; “Biological Annihilation via the ongoing Sixth Mass Extinction”, we discussed the collapse of the flying insect populations in neighbouring Germany. So now I know it’s happening in both these countries!
We are in an undeclared planetary emergency and no one, not one government on the planet is doing anything except tinkering around the fringes while Rome burns. We are left leaderless in the perfect storm with just a few scientists like Dr Mike Joy from Aotearoa New Zealand, Professor Guy McPherson, Paul Beckwith and Sam Carana raising the alarm.
Below is an article from the conservative Guardian documenting the insect population collapse in France. Everywhere I look collapse is unfolding;
‘Catastrophe’ as France’s bird population collapses due to pesticides.

 

Posted in Uncategorized

“He is a superb journalist, in the most honorable tradition of that craft.” -Howard Zinn describing Dahr Jamail

Todays guest on Nature Bats Last on PRN.FM was Dahr Jamail staff reporter from Truthout.org
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The show is embedded here;

We covered a wide range of subjects around the ongoing climate crisis, including the idiocy of building Nuclear plants on coastlines being battered by rising sea levels and ever stronger storms and how during Hurricane Harvey, which had sustained wind speeds of 135 mph, nuclear plants were generating at 100% capacity fulfilling their contractural obligations! #Followthemoney.
On the 11th of this month we remembered the 7th anniversary of the tsunami and triple melt downs’ at Fukushima Daiichi. I chronicle that never ending disaster with my colleagues on the Facebook Page Nuclear Genocide
The latest episode of Nuclear Hotseat covering the Fukushima Anniversary special is embedded here
Dahr and I discussed the immense danger a Sea Ice free Arctic poses with the potential release of a  50 gigatonne’s pulse of methane as hypothisised by Dr Natalia Shakova and colleagues from the University of Fairbanks in Alaska. Dahr has written about this previously here: Dahr Jamail: The Methane Monster Roars: 
“Based on the new results obtained by comprehensive biogeochemical, geophysical and geological research made in 2011-2016, we can conclude that in some areas of the Eastern Siberian shelf the permafrost layer has thinned and reached the stability zone of hydrates, the destruction of which might lead to massive emissions of methane bubbles,” Natalya Shakhova, professor at the university’s Geology and Exploration Department, was quoted as saying.” This quote from an article titled “Underwater permafrost on the Arctic shelf melting faster than expected
The Arctic has seen temperature anomalies of 20C above ‘normal’ when the arctic is still in 24 hr darkness. Robert Hunziker writes about this aspect in this article published at: Counterpunch.
I brought up the issue of a fishing trawler plumeting down a methane plume in the Arctic,the article from The Telegraph is embedded here: Giant methane gas bubble ‘sank trawler’. 

The New Scientist article on the same subject is titled “Swallowing Ships”

The former host of the show Professor Guy McPherson called it to ask Dahr and myself a few questions and brought up the critical issue of Global Dimming. If you haven’t watched a documentary on this aspect of our predicament, I have covered it previously on this blog here , It really is a must watch documentary.
Guy will be back touring in the continental US in the next few weeks, details at the “Coming Events Tab” at Professor McPherson’s website 
Recently I interviewed Dr Andrew Glikson on the show and coincidentally he sent me his latest paper yesterday titled ” Onset of Climate Tipping Points”. Robin Westenra covered it on his brilliant blog at the hyper link directly above.
Dahr mentioned two scientist whose work I was unaware of, they were Daniel Fagre Ph.D. and Harold Wanless, scroll down the staff list at John Hopkins University for more on Dr Wanless.  Harold R Wanless Ph.D.  

Fukushima is much worse than you think by

 If you want more and why wouldn’t you, check out “Tim Bob’s latest mash up featuring Dahr Jamail and Professor Guy McPherson.

I took this photo of Dahr Jamail on our research trip to and dive at the Poor Knights Marine Reserve,additional photo’s of the dive trip are  here:
Dahr

Posted in Uncategorized

Sam Carana answers questions about the Arctic.

On the 1st of February, I narrated the Q & A between Sam Carana and Wolfgang Werminghausen where I speak for Sam initially and then offer my own conclusions.
We discuss the methane threat and the threat of a blue ocean event this year in the Arctic.
Additionally;  Alaska’s Bering Sea Lost a Third of It’s Ice in Just 8 days

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File photo from the Arctic News Blog

The podcast is embedded below

via FTE24 Arctic ~ Sam Carana about the Arctic and global temperature 

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Methane, Podcasts
Kevin Hester

Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water.  I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.

My Submission to the Ministry of the Environment
Kevin Hester, Dropping Anchor in an Exponential World
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