The Irish Citizen Army: My Grandads Army

Posted on July 19, 2026 by Kevin Hester — Leave a comment

My maternal grandfather Tommy Byrne was a Quartermaster in the Irish Citizen Army. He was caught with weapons and whilst banged up in a Free State jail he began a hunger strike that lasted 23 days, before he was pressured to call it off. After ‘just’ 23 days his health was forever compromised, he never ate another solid meal, his sacrifice became lifelong, as it was for all of our hunger strikers and their families and loved ones.
I have no knowledge of combat operations he was involved in; my parents were reluctant to discuss the armed struggle with me; they didn’t want to put ideas in my head. Ma used to sing Kevin Barry to me as a kid and then got shitty with me when I went to the occupied six counties to assess the war for myself. The first of two war zones I live in, Mozambique was the other, where we were under 24/7 threat from the original Apartheid state on the southern border trying to destabilize the popular revolutionary government in Mozambique.
Ma told me that before the Easter uprising Éamon de Valera had been a regular visitor at her parents’ home in Blessington, County Wicklow, after the split he became ‘persona non grata’.
“Loved by some, despised by others, ‘Dev’ has left a memory in Ireland that is complicated by many factors. Diarmaid Ferriter assesses the competing perspectives”. What did Éamon de Valera ever do for us? I think granddad Tommy was in the latter category.

When the 1981 hunger strike was unfolding, over seven brutal months of starvation for the 10 brave men and horror for their families and loved ones, I remember Ma walking around the house murmuring “What must their mammies be going through”, Ma knew exactly what emotional turmoil they were suffering. The 1981 Irish hunger strike lasted 217 days, from March 1 to October 3, 1981.
I joined Dean Parker on the NZ H Block Committee. Dean put me in touch with wonderful revolutionaries from the Irish Republican Socialist Party with strict instructions to keep me out of trouble. Patsy Marron my host in occupied West Belfast won a poetry price which was presented by the traitor Gerry Adams, I was introduced to him as a “Trusted member of the Irish Republican Diaspora” It was inconceivable at the time to think that someone like Adams could have been ‘turned’ by the Brits, we now know better. Treachery and Perfidious Albion are recurring themes in our struggle.

Tommy Byrne – Quarter master of the IRA unit in Blessington. Photo courtesy of Irish History 1916 through to 1923

Now to his O.C. James Connolly
Given to his daughter Nora Connolly on eve of his murder by the British

To the Field General Court Martial, held at Dublin Castle, on May 9th, 1916:

“I do not wish to make any defence except against charges of wanton cruelty to prisoners. These trifling allegations that have been made, if they record facts that really happened deal only with the almost unavoidable incidents of a hurried uprising against long established authority, and nowhere show evidence of set purpose to wantonly injure unarmed persons.”

“We went out to break the connection between this country and the British Empire, and to establish an Irish Republic. We believed that the call we then issued to the people of Ireland, was a nobler call, in a holier cause, than any call issued to them during this war, having any connection with the war. We succeeded in proving that Irishmen are ready to die endeavouring to win for Ireland those national rights which the British Government has been asking them to die to win for Belgium. As long as that remains the case, the cause of Irish freedom is safe.”

“Believing that the British Government has no right in Ireland, never had any right in Ireland, and never can have any right in Ireland, the presence, in any one generation of Irishmen, of even a respectable minority, ready to die to affirm that truth, makes that Government for ever a usurpation and a crime against human progress.”

“I personally thank God that I have lived to see the day when thousands of Irish men and boys, and hundreds of Irish women and girls, were ready to affirm that truth, and to attest it with their lives if need be.”
James Connolly Last Statement

JAMES CONNOLLY,
Commandant-General, Dublin Division,
Army of the Irish Republic

This is rare footage of Ireland during times of the 1916 Easter Rising and the Irish War of Independence (1919-1921).
It’s amazing for this member of the diaspora to see these clips and wonder was grandad there at the time.

James Connolly’s words reflect his unwavering commitment to socialism, labor rights, and Irish independence.

Notable Quotes by James Connolly

On Revolution and the People: “A revolution is not a bed of roses. It is a battle between the future and the past.”
These quotes collectively illustrate Connolly’s vision of a society rooted in equality, workers’ rights, and national liberation, emphasizing that political freedom must be accompanied by social and economic justice. His writings continue to inspire discussions on socialism, labor movements, and Irish history

On Capitalism and Class Struggle: “Governments in capitalist society are but committees of the rich to manage the affairs of the capitalist class.” (Socialism and the Irish Rebellion)

On Irish Independence: “If you remove the English army tomorrow and hoist the green flag over Dublin Castle, unless you set about the organization of the Socialist Republic your efforts would be in vain. England would still rule you through her capitalists, landlords, and financiers.”

On Revolutionary Action: “We believe in constitutional action in normal times; we believe in revolutionary action in exceptional times.”

On Labor and Humanity: “The cause of labor is the cause of all humanity.”

On Social Justice: “The greatest crime is to have a great deal of money and spend it all on just oneself.”

On Nationalism and Socialism: “The Irish revolution must be a socialist revolution or it will fail.”

On Courage and Defiance: “If you strike at, imprison, or kill us, out of our prisons or graves we will still evoke a spirit that will thwart you, and perhaps, raise a force that will destroy you! We defy you! Do your worst!”

On Education and History: “The task of the present is to teach the lessons of the past.”

On Freedom of Thought: “There can be no real freedom without the freedom to think, and no real freedom to think without the freedom to speak.”
Source: Memorable James Connolly Quotes

Another famous and fabulous revolutionary in their ranks was Constance Markievicz: “I do wish your lot had the decency to shoot me,” Irish rebel Constance Markievicz told her British captors, when informed that they had commuted her death sentence.”
Constance Markievicz: A revolutionary Irish woman history forgot

Women have played an integral role in our struggle for independence and reunification of the 32 counties. There is no revolutionary movement in history where woman didn’t have a crucial role.
“The year 2014 marked the centenary of the founding Cumann na mBan, the Irish Republican women’s organisation. On April 5, 1914, over 100 women attended a meeting of what was to become Cumann na mBan in Wynn’s Hotel, Dublin, presided over by Agnes O’Farrelly. The formation of a Republican women’s organisation succeeded the founding of the male-only Irish Volunteers. The organisation played an active role during the 1916 rising, although it had split less than two years earlier into pro- and anti-Redmond factions.” Cumann na mBan, the Irish Republican women’s organisation.

The edited highlights of my time in the occupied six counties are embedded in my article titled: Adventures of a Member of the Diaspora in Occupied West Belfast

Our struggle is laced with poignant love stories, the most significant for me was the love and minutes long marriage of Grace Gifford and Joseph Mary Plunket – A Love Story like No Other

Tiocfaidh ár lá.
Amandla Ngawethu
Asalamu Alaikum

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Tagged with: history, Ireland, Politics
Posted in Imperialism, Steaknife

Record winter temperatures in Antarctic raise fears over speed of climate breakdown

Posted on June 17, 2026 by Kevin Hester — 5 Comments

Records aren’t ‘just’ being broken, they are being destroyed, annihilated, my studies on non-linearity in the climate system continue to predictably show acceleration. The key issue with our predicament, is that it is accelerating.

“Temperatures in the Antarctic climbed above 15C this month, shattering the previous winter heat record for the usually frozen region and raising concerns about the speed of climate breakdown.” Minor detail, it’s supposed to be winter in the Southern Hemisphere, the seasonal sea ice is supposed to be growing, not declining.

“The new winter peak temperature was logged by the Argentinian Esperanza base on the Trinity peninsula on 6 June amid a protracted heatwave, when the maximum daily temperature exceeded zero degrees for three consecutive weeks.”

“Scientists said the high of 15.4C broke the previous record set at the same station in 1998 by 2C. “This is absolutely crazy,” said Raúl Cordero, an Ecuadorian climate professor at the University of Groningen. “It is also about 20C above normal for this time of the year. That is a huge anomaly.”

It’s warmer in Antarctica than in the Hauraki Gulf in Aotearoa NZ, the difference from the last record screams non-linearity.

Record winter temperatures in Antarctic raise fears over speed of climate breakdown

Bellingshausen Sea slushy! Imagine what it will look like at the end of this year as the summer kicks in and the real consequences of the El Niño manifest. 2026 Super El Niño could surpass the 1877 record

“A colossal chunk of sea ice roughly the size of Texas is missing from the west coast of Antarctica, and scientists fear it might never form again.”

“Antarctica is currently in winter, which runs from March to October on the southernmost continent. During the winter months, floating sea ice surrounding the continent typically grows, driving currents that regulate Earth’s climate. But this year, there’s a notable ice gap over the Bellingshausen Sea, on the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula.”

Satellite observations have revealed that around 250,000 square miles (650,000 square kilometers) of sea ice hasn’t formed yet, compared with the average amount of sea ice between 1991 and 2020, The Guardian reported last week. For comparison, the ice gap covers an area slightly larger than France or nearly the size of Texas. A Texas-size chunk of winter sea ice is missing from Antarctica — and it’s probably not coming back

I have noticed a number of articles attributing this melt to the nascent El Niño, I contest that assumption.
Here’s one example below:

“The coldest place on Earth is also feeling the effects of the hot weather triggered by El Niño. Scientists recorded temperatures 20 degrees Celsius above normal in early June on the Trinity Peninsula in Antarctica. This shows that a heatwave has gripped the frozen continent.”
NOAA have only just accepted that we are now in an El Niño phase, the consequences we witness unfolding are the result of ongoing emissions and the implications of six dozen feedback loops we have triggered, not the El Niño, those consequences are barreling towards us like a runaway freight train.
Antarctica feels the heat in June as temperature soars 20 degrees Celsius above normal

What are the consequences of losing a chunk of ice the size of Texas?

1) The loss of latent heat from such a huge piece of the cryosphere.
2) The loss of Albedo or reflectivity means that more solar radiation is absorbed by the oceans, accelerating the melt.
3) The loss of habitat on the ice for seals and penguins, the loss of habitat under the ice for algae, a keystone species in the marine food web.
4) The meltwater from these losses is slowing down the ocean currents.

“Losing the remaining Arctic sea ice and its ability to reflect incoming solar energy back to space would be equivalent to adding one trillion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, on top of the 2.4 trillion tons emitted since the Industrial Age, according to current and former researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego.”

“At current rates, this roughly equates to 25 years of global CO2 emissions.”

Cascading Consequences of the Loss of Arctic Sea Ice

“NASA CERES satellites measure how much sunlight Earth absorbs and how much heat is radiated back to space.”

“The difference is heat accumulation, which has more than tripled!” Via Leon Simons @ Bluesky

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Asalamu Alaikum, Amandla ngawhetu, Tiocfaidh ár lá.

Tagged with: climate, climate-change, environment, global-warming, Leon Simons
Posted in Antarctica, Arctic Sea Ice, Nonlinear Rate of Change, Professor Guy McPherson

Perfidious Albion, Steaknife, the Infiltration of Sinn Fein & the P.I.R.A.

Posted on May 28, 2026 by Kevin Hester — 8 Comments

A case study on how a revolutionary movement was defeated from within. Quintessential Perfidious Albion.

On 8 May 1987 I was in the Rock Bar on the Falls Rd in occupied West Belfast, the ‘Rock’ was a hotbed of revolutionary Irish Republicanism, a great place to discuss the military occupation with like-minded souls opposed to the 800-year occupation of Ireland, strategise on how to end it politically and to relieve the stress of living through an urban guerilla war. All this whilst Armoured Landrovers and Saracens drove by with soldiers in their turrets pointing automatic weapons at the bar and patrons.
Loud Irish Republican music and creamy Guiness were our accompaniments, along with copious servings of Gallows Humour, all oriented around drowning out important discussions and grief.

Word came in that a large contingent of the East Tyrone Brigade of the P.I.R.A. had been slaughtered in a British “Shoot to Kill” operation/ambush that Brit intelligence had known of since it’s planning stage. They had ten days to arrest the plotters and confiscate the explosives and weapons but chose instead to allow the op to proceed, to give them the opportunity to assassinate the brigade, one of the most feared by the occupying army.
A detail I noticed about the young Brits pointing their weapons at us, was that they always looked scared, from the moment they were on duty and when behind the barracks walls, they were ‘on edge’, hence why they were so ‘trigger happy’! The van the ASU were traveling in was hit with 1400 rounds, fired by belt fed machine guns manned by the SAS! It was literally ‘perforated’.
A civilian was also killed and another wounded by the SAS after unwittingly driving into the ambush zone and being mistaken for IRA attackers, had the brigade been arrested whilst planning the op, these victims of “The Troubles” would have made it home to their families and been spared the trauma.

Everyone stood in shock listening to the local media gloating at our loss, rivers of tears and more Guiness flowed, revenge was plotted.

A parallel was the murder of three unarmed volunteers shot on the streets of Gibraltar. Sean was shot 18 times. “Farrell, Watson said, “was hit by five bullets to the face and neck and three in the back. . . . Danny McCann was shot twice in the head and twice in the back.” 18 Bullets hit IRA man inquest told.
Executed in a public street when they could have easily been arrested. Sprayed with automatic weapons fire from behind, shot in the face and neck whilst bleeding out on the ground. Gone but never forgotten comrades.

“The IRA’s East Tyrone Brigade was active mainly in eastern County Tyrone and neighbouring parts of County Armagh. By the mid-1980s it had become one of the IRA’s most aggressive formations. Members of the unit, such as Jim Lynagh and Pádraig McKearney, advocated a strategy of destroying bases and preventing them being rebuilt or repaired in an attempt to “deny ground” to British forces. In 1985, Patrick Joseph Kelly became its commander and began implementing the strategy. In 1985 and 1986, it carried out two major attacks on Royal Ulster Constabulary bases. The first was an attack on the RUC barracks in Ballygawley on 7 December 1985, in which two police officers were shot dead. The second was an attack on an RUC base at The Birches on 11 August 1986. In both attacks, the bases were raked with machine-gun fire and then severely damaged with homemade bombs. In the attack at The Birches, they had breached the base’s perimeter fence with a digger that had a bomb in its bucket; it was planned to use the same tactic in an attack on the lightly manned Loughgall base.” The paragraph above: Via Wikipedia

In the video above Volunteer and my esteemed friend and comrade Anthony McIntyre’s name comes up as the instigator of the incredible Boston College Tapes. ‘Macker’ has documented much of our history, the good, the bad and the ugly, at his website: The Pensive Quill.

Steaknife was the cover name for Freddie Scapaticci, a MI6 agent that had unbelievably been appointed as head of “Internal Security” of the IRA, even after doubts had been raised with McGuiness, Adams and the Army Council as to his integrity/loyalty.
Now we know why: Adams and McGuiness had been ‘turned’. In hindsight we now know that all these people were colluding with the Brits, they had been since they allowed 10 brave men to starve themselves to death in 1981, whilst plotting surrender.
How and why, they turned against the ideals of the struggle, and their erstwhile comrades can’t be known for certain but large sums of money, an amnesty from trial and in Adams’s case, committing a crime by covering up his brother’s pedophilia, could well have played a role.
A crucial detail about Adams knowing about his brother’s pedophilia is that he allowed it to go on for years, sickening complicity in the crime. I joked on social media that had I known that Adams was a ‘tout’ on the few occasions I met him, I would have stabbed him in the throat! BAM, suspended, cry me a river. Regrets, I have a few.
“Gerry Adams has told the trial of his younger brother that during a meeting between the two men 13 years ago, Liam Adams admitted sexually abusing his own daughter.”

“He said: “I had a long walk with Liam. We had a number of conversations. During the course of that, he acknowledged that he had sexually abused Aine. He said it only happened the once.” Source: Gerry Adams: Brother Liam ‘Admitted Sex Abuse’

Let’s now dive deeper into the exposure of “Steaknife”

“Seamus continues his story at the point where he is caught and arrested by the RUC for a job gone-wrong. He tells us about the physical and mental torture inflicted by the prison guards in Long Kesh (H Blocks) and the lengths that Seamus and his colleagues went to during the “Blanket Protests” or ‘Dirty Protests”.

“Seamus describes the inhumane methods employed by the guards to break the IRA prisoners and end their fight for political-prisoner status during his 10 year detainment in Long Kesh.”

“He shares the tragic story of how his brother, Michael, was falsely labeled an informant after being interrogated by the IRA internal security unit which included the now-infamous British agent Freddie Scappaticci, better know as “Steaknife”. This began a decades long journey by Seamus to clear his brother’s name and expose the British Intel handlers who he believes are responsible for planning and orchestrating his brother’s stitch-up in order to protect their own informants within the Provos.
Seamus reveals new uncovered internal IRA documents from that he says will expose the “dirty-war” methods of British Ministry of Defence.”
The three paragraphs above from this podcast interview with my friend and comrade Séamus Kearney: H-BLOCK TORTURE, CLEARING HIS BROTHER’S NAME & EXPOSING STEAKNIFE’S UNIT| Seamus Kearney’s story Part 2/2

Just digest those last few paragraphs, what Seamus and his family went through and what former comrades were learning about the treachery in their midst. One shining light in the darkness was that Seamus cleared his brother’s name whilst his mum was still alive. Antoin O’Hara found me on Facadebook not long after I went public about Patsy O’Hara Place in Auckland, I was told it brought Peggy, their long-suffering mother enormous joy that her sons sacrifice was immortalized in Aotearoa NZ.
I didn’t get much right, but I nailed that one!

Seamus has written a brilliant book on his mission to clear his brother’s name titled: “No Greater Love: The Memoirs of Seamus Kearney”

In the above podcast Seamus mentions discussing the corruption in the Belfast brigade with Brendan Hughes, known by the name afforded him by the Brits: “The Dark”.
“What the IRA and Sinn Fein have done is just become another middle-class party and dropped all the things we fought and died for.” Brendan Hughes speaks openly about Sinn Féin
It pains me enormously that I wasn’t around to support The Dark in his hour of need. I will write a new article about “The Dark” in the near future.

Below are two interviews where Seamus discusses his mission to clear his brother’s name and expose the corruption in the P.I.R.A.
Consider the dudes courage, after many years on ‘active service’,10 years on the blanket in Long Kesh, then he dedicates his life to clearing his brother’s name, exposing the collusion between the Brits and the P.I.R.A. Army Command. I live in awe of the courage of my comrades, way too many to single any one in particular, but this story is one of the most important in our fraught history.

H-BLOCK TORTURE, CLEARING HIS BROTHER’S NAME & EXPOSING STEAKNIFE’S UNIT| Seamus Kearney Part 2/2

EX-IRA MAN EXPOSES Ministry Of Defence | Operation Kenova, Stakeknife & IRA INTERNAL FILES uncovered

This post is not about me; it’s about infinitely more important people than myself but I have written about my own time in the occupied six counties: Adventures of a Member of the Diaspora in Occupied West Belfast and the fact that I named a road in Aotearoa NZ after I.N.L.A. Hunger Striker Patsy O’Hara. My Tribute to My Comrade Patsy O’Hara and His Family

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Tagged with: history, Ireland
Posted in Imperialism, Irish Republican Resistance, Steaknife, Warfare

Accelerating Non-Linearity in the Climate System, the New Abnormal.

Posted on May 27, 2026 by Kevin Hester — 3 Comments

“The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race is Our Inability to Truly Understand the Exponential Function” Professor Albert Bartlett.

“It’s been a record-breaking day for temperatures across much of the UK today.
The first came before the sun was even up, with a provisional new May high for the overnight temperature 19.C in Kenley, Greater London.
Early this morning our weather team predicted a “bonkers” day – they knew the record for hottest May day would be broken “easily.”
And sure enough, the old record 32.8C, set in May 1922 – was equalled around midday.
But the temperature kept rising, with the previous May record broken by a full 2C after a high of 34.8C was measured at Kew Gardens, west London, late in the afternoon.”
UK records hottest ever May day as temperature climbs to 34.8C in west London

34.8 C record in Britain, it broke the old record by 2c. A quantum leap.
If this margin happened in an Olympic event, you would rightly think that the runner was on “The Juice”, you’d be right, our climate system is responding to destabilisation and the consequences of the cumulative effects of having triggered over six dozen feedback loops that I am aware of, there has to be more yet to be identified.

I worked in the not very United Kingdom in 1986/87, a 25C day in the summer was considered hot, summer hasn’t started yet, it’s still a month away and the consequences of the nascent El Nino have yet to manifest. 2026 Super El Niño could surpass the 1877 record
All of the above information is from the first embedded link via the BBC, an organisation renowned for giving us the ‘edited highlights’ of events but the data is readily available.

“For late May, this is a historic, record-shattering heatwave. An extraordinary thermodynamic plume sends a massive core of extreme warmth over Spain, Portugal, Ireland, the UK, France, and Germany. Temperatures are soaring by 12-16 °C above long-term climatological norms.“Heat Dome Update: Europe Braces for Record-Breaking Late May Heatwave

Below is a fascinating video documentary on the heatwave from “The Outer Layer.”
“A thermometer in a London garden just read thirty-four point eight degrees Celsius — and with that single number, Britain recorded the hottest May day in its entire history. But the number itself is not the signal. The margin is. This record did not creep upward by the tenth of a degree that records normally move by in a centuries-long dataset. It shattered the previous national May mark by a full two degrees, a leap into territory the month had never reached in the entire instrumental era. The Met Office said something stranger still: that this level of heat would be exceptional in the United Kingdom even in the height of summer — and it arrived at the very end of May, with the warm season not yet begun. So is this a freak, a hot day the summer will quietly forget? Or the first move of a machine that is already assembled, already running, and weeks ahead of schedule?”
Britain Just Recorded Its Most Extreme May Heat in History — And It’s a Warning For the World.

The above video and additional information can be found at my previous delve into non-linearity: Non-Linearity in the Climate System

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Asalamu Alaikum, Amandla ngawhetu, Tiocfaidh ár lá.

Tagged with: climate-change, Dr. Guy McPherson, environment, global-warming, Runaway Abrupt Climate Change
Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Early Stage Runaway, Professor Guy McPherson

2026 Super El Niño could surpass the 1877 record

Posted on May 19, 2026 by Kevin Hester — 13 Comments

“The last time the tropical Pacific ran this hot, millions of people starved. The El Niño of 1877 triggered crop failures from India to Brazil and is considered one of the deadliest climate events in recorded history. Now, three of the world’s most authoritative climate forecasting centers are converging on a signal that has not appeared with this level of agreement in modern meteorology: a Super El Niño that could match or exceed that catastrophic benchmark before the end of 2026.”
Super El Niño could surpass the 1877 record — every major forecast model now shows 100% probability

Will Climate Change Terminate the United States?

“A developing El Niño could bring more than shifts in seasonal storm tracks as humanitarian officials are warning that a possibly strong event could disrupt food production, water supplies and fisheries in vulnerable regions around the world.”

“AccuWeather meteorologists say El Niño is expected to develop around the start of summer and could reach “super El Niño” status as early as October or November. Later in 2026 or around the start of 2027, it may rival some of the strongest El Niño events in history.” Super El Niño could strain food and water supplies around the world

What happened in 1877

“A historic super El Niño occurred from 1877 to 1878. A NOAA paper found that the 1877/78 super El Niño may have been one of the strongest such events on record.”

“According to The Week, this resulted in droughts and mass famine across the world. At least 50 million people were left dead – around three to four per cent of the world’s population – in the Great Drought.”
In 1877, a super El Niño killed millions. How deadly will it be this year?

I’ve been anticipating this El Niño since 2023, the time of consequences beckons.
At the link below Professor McPherson and I discuss the implications the El Niño on the Arctic Sea Ice minimum that usually occurs around mid-September.

The Convergence of the Next El Niño–Southern Oscillation & the Arctic Sea Ice Minimum

Professor Steve Keen is predicting severe famines due to the loss of fertilizer from West Asia, where Western Barbarians are laying siege to the Cradle of Humanity.

Will the Iran war trigger a global famine? Professor Steve Keen explains the 5 scenarios.

Did El Niño Cause the Worst of the Previous Mass Extinction Events?

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Asalamu Alaikum, Amandla Ngawhetu, Tiocfaidh ár lá.

Tagged with: climate, climate-change, Dr. Guy McPherson, environment, history, Runaway Abrupt Climate Change
Posted in Abrupt Climate Change

Overshoot, our Unfolding Predicament, in a Time of Non-Linearity.

Posted on May 10, 2026 by Kevin Hester — 4 Comments

“The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race is our Inability to Truly Understand the Exponential Function” The late great Albert Bartlett

The video above is a brief overview of Al’s hypothesis, a longer, more detailed version is embedded following: Exponential Growth Arithmetic, Population and Energy, Dr. Albert A. Bartlett

The late, great Michael Dowd and I believe that William Catton’s masterpiece Overshoot is one of the most important books ever written.
Mike recorded an audio overview of Catton’s book: William R. Catton, Jr Overshoot – 1

Let’s talk ‘Nonlinearity’.
Greenland ice melt has surged sixfold and scientists are alarmed

Date: May 4, 2026, Source: University of Barcelona Summary: “Greenland’s ice sheet is now melting in ways never seen before, with extreme events becoming more frequent, widespread, and intense. Since 1990, meltwater production has skyrocketed, and most record-breaking events have occurred in recent years. Scientists say warming temperatures are supercharging these episodes beyond natural climate patterns.”
Greenland ice melt has surged sixfold and scientists are alarmed

“Losing the remaining Arctic sea ice and its ability to reflect incoming solar energy back to space would be equivalent to adding one trillion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, on top of the 2.4 trillion tons emitted since the Industrial Age, according to current and former researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego.”
“At current rates, this roughly equates to 25 years of global CO2 emissions.”
Cascading Consequences of the Loss of Arctic Sea Ice

Dive into Erik Michaels blog titled: What Can Be Done About Overshoot?

Via Environmental Coffeehouse
“William Catton was prescient enough to see what was coming from a long way off, and responsible enough to spend his life warning us. Peace on his soul, and heaven help our own.” ~ Alan Weisman

“William Catton was a pioneering world leader in dealing with environmental issues. He was one of the few sociologists who recognized the existential nature of the crisis now facing civilization. ” Paul Erlich

Abstract

“Many subsystems of the Earth system, which are currently closely following a stable state, are at risk of undergoing abrupt transitions to a drastically different, and often less desired, state due to anthropogenic climate change. These so-called tipping events often present severe consequences for ecosystems and human livelihood that are difficult to reverse. Forcing a nonlinear system beyond a critical threshold that signifies the onset of self-amplifying feedbacks constitutes a possible mechanism for tipping”.
Uncertainty quantification for overshoots of tipping thresholds

“Antarctica is being ravaged by a triple-whammy of climate chaos that has melted sea ice to record lows, a new study has revealed. For decades, the frozen wilderness at the bottom of the world defied global warming trends, with ice levels actually growing—until 2015 when it suddenly reversed.”
A brand-new paper just published: Antarctica sea ice collapse driven by triple whammy of climate chaos, scientists find.

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Asalamu Alaikum, Amandla Ngawhetu, Tiocfaidh ár lá.

Tagged with: climate-change, Overdevelopment-Overpopulation-Overshoot
Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Antarctica, Arctic, Collapse

Former Climate Change Minister James Shaw’s Corporate Conflict of Interest

Posted on April 22, 2026 by Kevin Hester — Leave a comment

“An international start-up has been pushing for regulation changes to allow it to carry out controversial marine carbon storage in New Zealand waters.”
“Start-up asked for regulation changes to allow controversial marine carbon storage”.

“The company says it needs to be able to carry out ocean research to build its evidence base – but wants to be able to generate carbon credits, in order to fund its work.”
James Shaw was the corporate stooge instrumental in setting up the “Carbon credits” scam.
“It intends to sell carbon credits for the extra carbon it manages to store, and has already signed an agreement with aviation services provider SkiesFifty to sequester 200,000 tonnes of CO2 by 2029.”

“Documents released to RNZ under the Official Information Act show that in meetings with the Ministry for the Environment last year, Gigablue proposed changes to marine regulations that would allow it to go ahead” “without consents.
Did the former Climate Change Minister try to pressure the Ministry for the Environment to circumvent the notified consent process?

“The company was assisted in its lobbying by former climate change minister James Shaw!”
So, Shaw’s lobbying was contemporaneous with Gigablue wanting to circumvent or bypass the consent process.
“However, by 2025 it was looking for a more permissive way to conduct its activities, with an eye to selling carbon credits to businesses wanting to offset their emissions – known as the voluntary carbon market.”

“As well as the contract with SkiesFifty, it recently raised US$20 million (NZ$35m) in venture capital.”
What role did Shaw’s lobbying play in raising $20million US dollars?

“In a follow-up letter, Gigablue co-founder and chief technology officer Sapir Markus-Alford said the current regulations were “a hindrance” to marine carbon removal, because it was so new that it was not recognised in New Zealand’s system.”
My first question is how long has Shaw and Sapir Markus-Alford being communicating generally and specifically were they in contact when he was still in Parliament, pedaling his carbon credits scam?

“In early 2023, the Guardian published an article suggesting that more than 90% of rainforest carbon offsets are worthless. These credits are essentially a promise to protect forests and can be bought as a way to “offset” emissions elsewhere.”

“Verra, the largest certifier of these offset credits, said the claims were “absolutely incorrect” but the story still shook confidence in the billion-dollar market. Soon after, Verra’s CEO stood down.”
‘Worthless’: Scientists Warn Carbon Offsets Are a Dangerous Illusion

“Morrison has appointed James Shaw as an Operating Partner to its growing team, following his distinguished political career in New Zealand. His Morrison role will be focused on driving the next generation of investment opportunities that support global decarbonisation.”

“Prior to joining Morrison, James served in the New Zealand House of Representatives from 2014 to 2024 and as Climate Change Minister in Jacinda Ardern’s government from 2017 to 2023. The architect of New Zealand’s net-zero framework, he brokered bi-partisan support for the Zero Carbon Act, reforms of the NZ Emission Trading Scheme, and the world’s first Climate Related Financial Disclosures regime, and established New Zealand Green Investment Finance Ltd.”

James Shaw joins Morrison as Operating Partner

Tagged with: climate-change, Politics, science
Posted in Uncategorized

“We’re F#%ked, But Let’s Talk About It Anyway”

Posted on April 19, 2026 by Kevin Hester — 3 Comments

As we navigate the perfect storm of climate break down, contemporaneous with the rerise of fascism, with a second nuclear armed “democratically elected” dementia patient in the “White House that Slaves Built”, those of us with the time, courage and integrity to have these discussions often deflect our grief and anger with “Gallows Humor”, the video discussion below between Professor Guy McPherson and Chris Jeffries, the “Hopeless Romantic” is a perfect example. Let’s try and have as many laughs as we can, while we can.
Can anyone explain to me how tens of millions of American women voted for Trump, twice and Biden, knowing their predilection for young girls? Could tens of millions of women suffer from Stockholm Syndrome?
I know some people will find ‘Gallows humor” difficult or even repulsive but having been down this rabbit hole now, for 14 years, whew, finding and establishing strategies to deal with a phenomenon that our species has never confronted before, it seems to be a valid response.
Dive into the video and then check out the embedded links below it that provide clarity for the more scientific aspects of the discussion.

Early in the interview Guy mentions our error in relying on peer reviewed papers from Jennifer Mackinnon from Scrips institute and James Anderson, Harvard Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry. We admit that they/we were wrong, halleluiah, none of us want to be right about the rapidity of the catastrophe. Re: Jim: “He received the E.O. Lawrence Award in Environmental Science and Technology; the American Chemical Society’s Gustavus John Esselen Award for Chemistry in the Public Interest; the United Nations Vienna Convention Award for Protection of the Ozone Layer; Harvard University’s Ledlie Prize for Most Valuable Contribution to Science by a Member of the Faculty; the American Chemical Society’s National Award for Creative Advances in Environmental Science and Technology.”
Jim discovered the hole in the ozone layer, what caused it and how to remedy it. It’s hard to doubt someone with those credentials, but we all make mistakes, especially those of us who follow “The Precautionary Principle”.
In an analysis from Scripps, that has yet to be proven right or wrong, because we haven’t had a Blue Ocean Event: (BOE) in the arctic ‘yet,’ the synopsis reads: “Losing the remaining Arctic sea ice and its ability to reflect incoming solar energy back to space would be equivalent to adding one trillion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, on top of the 2.4 trillion tons emitted since the Industrial Age, according to current and former researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego.”
“At current rates, this roughly equates to 25 years of global CO2 emissions.”
Cascading Consequences of the Loss of Arctic Sea Ice

With the high probability of a “Super El Nino” evolving in the coming months and most of the ‘Fast Ice’ already gone or teetering on the brink, the September Sea Ice minimum looms ominously.
Summary
“New research links super El Niño events to long-term climate regime shifts affecting ecosystems and livelihoods.
A developing El Niño in the Pacific could intensify into a rare “super El Niño.”
Forecasts suggest it may become one of the strongest such events in over a century.
Likely to disrupt global weather patterns, including India’s monsoon cycles.
It could trigger extreme events such as floods, droughts and shifting storm tracks.”
A rare “Super El Niño” may be forming in the Pacific — and it could reshape global weather starting this summer

Guy mentioned the Naval Post-Graduate School Arctic Sea Ice Ensemble, which is due any day now, I’ll edit the blog and embed it here when it has been published.

There was a brief discussion about the role that micro and nano plastics play in this saga, Guy and I have both delved into this in more detail below.
“Microplastics in the atmosphere may be altering weather and climate by facilitating ice formation in clouds. Penn State research suggests these particles could impact precipitation and climate patterns, though their full effects remain unknown.”
“Of course, “their full effects remain unknown.” As Professor and Science Educator Carl Sagan pointed out long ago, “Science is a way of thinking much more than it is a body of knowledge.” We will never know all there is to know about Earth, much less the universe we inhabit. Science is a means of accumulating reliable knowledge through observation and testing. However, complete knowledge is beyond us, as indicated in the next paragraph of the article at SciTechDaily: “Scientists have discovered microplastics—tiny plastic particles less than 5 millimeters in size—in some of the planet’s most untouched places, from the depths of the Mariana Trench to the snow-capped peak of Mt. Everest, and even in clouds over mountains in China and Japan. Microplastics have also been found in human brain tissue, inside sea turtles, and even within plant roots. Now, new research led by Penn State scientists suggests that these airborne microplastics could be influencing weather patterns and impacting the climate.”
You’ve probably heard the expression about Aotearoa NZ being “Clean and Green”, it’s only half right.
“Seventy four metric tonnes of microplastics have been found in Auckland’s atmosphere, the equivalent of three million plastic bottles per year, researchers say.”

“The University of Auckland research, published in Environmental Science & Technology, found the microplastics were of such small sizes that there was concern they could be inhaled and accumulate in the human body.”

“Nanoplastics, the smallest particles, can potentially enter cells, cross the blood-brain barrier, and may build up in organs such as the testicles, liver and brain. Plastics have also been detected in the placenta.”

“Microplastics have also been detected in human lungs and in the lung tissue of cancer patients, indicating that the inhalation of atmospheric microplastics is an exposure risk to humans,” the paper noted.”

“The levels of microplastics in Auckland’s air were much higher than those recorded in London, Paris and Hamburg in recent years, with the study utilising a method which could detect particles as small as 0.01 of a millimetre, researchers said.”

Microplastics Changing Earth’s Climate from the depths of the Oceans, across Fertile lands and Forests & High up into the Atmosphere

“If the fracturing of our once stable climate doesn’t terrify you, then you don’t fully understand it!”

“While those of us working in the climate science field know the true picture, and understand the implications for our world, most others do not,” he wrote. “And this is a problem — a big one.” Check out the brutal honesty from Bill McGuire below.
Scientists Terrified by How the Climate is Falling Apart

Let’s end this with some industrial strength “Gallows Humor” from Katie Goodman et al.

“There’s never been a time, there’s never been a timeeeee, there’s never been a time, as fucked up as this”.

You can support this blog by Buying me a coffee, to be honest, it will be beer not coffee or via Paypal :
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https://bsky.app/profile/climatekevnz.bsky.social
(21) kevin hester (@iconickevin) / X

Tagged with: climate, climate-change, Dr. Guy McPherson, environment, global-warming
Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Arctic Sea Ice, Climate Science

Why The War in Iran Could Trigger the Worst Global Food Crisis in Contemporary History.

Posted on April 16, 2026 by Kevin Hester — 2 Comments

“The rockets falling in the Middle East are sending shockwaves straight to your dinner plate. When the U.S.-led military intervention in Iran escalated, most expected an energy crisis. They watched the oil markets and the gasoline pumps. And indeed prices have soared, with the Brent barrel hovering at around $105 and U.S. gas prices topping $4 for the first time since 2022.”
But the real casualty of this war may be far more insidious, and it starts in the soil.”

“Our modern food system is based on a foundation of natural gas, and now that foundation is cracking. It’s becoming clearer as the war drags on that the world is bound to face a historic global fertiliser shortage. With the Strait of Hormuz restricted by the Iranian military, shipments of critical agricultural chemicals have effectively stopped.”

“The result is a cascading failure across the global supply chain. This bottleneck is pushing food prices toward record highs not seen since the 1970s energy crisis, threatening millions of people with severe food insecurity.”
The above three paragraphs from ZME Science: Why The War in Iran Could Trigger the Worst Global Food Crisis Since the 1970s

All of the above is the best-case scenario, Professor McPherson and I believe the predicament is an existential threat, to us all and especially to our complex industrial civilization.
Professor McPhersons video analysis below with all of the verifying links following.

“The first two paragraphs of the story at HR News provide a daunting overview: “On March 27, 2026, Stanislav Krapivnik — a former U.S. Army officer, supply chain executive, and military-political analyst now based in Russia — gave his assessment of two converging crises: an attack on a key Russian position on the Baltic coast, and what he describes as a permanent or near-permanent collapse of Gulf energy infrastructure.”

“His conclusion is that these developments, stacked on top of an already-disrupted global fertilizer supply chain, will produce a food crisis by mid-summer 2026 — not as a possibility, but as a predictable consequence of conditions already in place.”
The above two paragraphs and video from this Substack post from my friend and colleague Professor Guy McPherson. Means of Extinction: Global Mass Starvation this Summer

I first encountered former US Army Officer Stanislav Krapivnik’s work via Danny Haipong’s YouTube channel.
I trust him.

“Russian born, former US Army officer, software engineer and director of Supply Chain in oil-gas services and EPC. At present, military-political analyst, part time journalist, on various Russian and international TV programs and podcasts.”
The following, embedded link will take you to Stanislav Krapivnik’s Substack channel.

Readers of this blog will know that Guy and I have covered this issue previously.

“By 2027 the world could be facing a 214 trillion calorie deficit, says Sara Menker, founder and chief executive of Gro Intelligence, an agricultural data technology company.” On the Verge of Starvation

“Disaster preparedness expert, author and U.S. Air Force veteran Christopher Armitage issued a dire warning recently that the supply chain disruptions caused by the U.S. war against Iran had set the United States on track for a “total collapse” within six months, with the bleak conditions only exacerbated by the Trump administration’s cuts to social safety net programs.”
US barreling towards ‘total collapse’ within six months if Iran war continues:

One final note: Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapse
Overview

“This study considers the relationship between a global systemic banking, monetary and solvency crisis and its implications for the real-time flow of goods and services in the globalised economy. It outlines how contagion in the financial system could set off semi-autonomous contagion in supply-chains globally, even where buyers and sellers are linked by solvency, sound money and bank intermediation. The cross-contagion between the financial system and trade/production networks is mutually reinforcing.”

“It is argued that in order to understand systemic risk in the globalised economy, account must be taken of how growing complexity (interconnectedness, interdependence and the speed of processes), the de-localisation of production and concentration within key pillars of the globalised economy have magnified global vulnerability and opened up the possibility of a rapid and large-scale collapse.”
Embedded in the hyper-link below is a March 29, 2015 video discussion, where Guy and I discuss supply chain breakdown
Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapse

How much is the Iran war costing American consumers? We track the extra cost paid for gasoline and diesel since the conflict began on February 28, 2026. We use actual prices that are updated daily. Fuel costs are just one part of a war’s consequences, but they come directly out of Americans’ pockets. These costs are rising everyday.
$20,541,000,000 at time of publishing.
Iran War Energy Cost Tracker

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Asalamu Alaikum, Amandla ngawhetu, Tiocfaidh ár lá.

Tagged with: Dr. Guy McPherson
Posted in Uncategorized

Team Nature Bats Last, Homage to Professor Paul Ehrlich.

Posted on March 30, 2026 by Kevin Hester — 1 Comment

In Aotearoa New Zealand, when an Elder, or Kaumatua in Te Reo Māori, slips away, we say, “A Mighty Kauri has Fallen”.
The Kauri tree is one of NZs’ most iconic trees and it is a suitable analogy for the loss of Professor Paul Ehrlich, my, Pauline and Professor Guy McPhersons’ friend and colleague. R.I.E.P. mate.

6th-mass-extinction-woodcut-print-by-Nat-Morley-2019

In the debate above we discussed Paul and my analogy about being on the Titanic. Class War on the Sinking Titanic

“Ehrlich founded Stanford’s Center for Nature and Society in 1984 and wrote more than 40 books and over 1,100 scientific articles on ecology, the environment and population dynamics. He is best known outside of academia for writing “The Population Bomb” in 1968, along with his wife, conservation biologist Anne H. Erhlich, who survives him.”
Paul Ehrlich, often called alarmist for dire warnings about human harms to the Earth, believed scientists had a responsibility to speak out

What is the MAHB?

The goal of the Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere (MAHB) is to create a platform to help global civil society address the interconnections among the greatest threats to human well-being: climate disruption, loss of biodiversity (and thus ecosystem services), land-use change and resulting degradation, global toxification, ocean acidification, decay of the epidemiological environment, an economic system based on growth, pressure from increasing population, and resource wars (which could go nuclear). The manifestation of these interactions is often referred to as “the human predicament.”

A Tribute to Paul R. Ehrlich from World Vasectomy Day

We discussed Paul’s ‘last’ book, written in conjunction with Gerardo Ceballos and Rodolfo Dirzo.

Before They Vanish Saving Nature’s Populations — and Ourselves

“Can we save threatened animals and ecosystems in the midst of a mass extinction? The answer is a resounding yes! Before They Vanish shows us how. In this wise and impassioned book, renowned conservation scientists Paul R. Ehrlich, Gerardo Ceballos, and Rodolfo Dirzo urge us to shift our thinking rather than succumb to grief over the losses that humanity faces. This comprehensive look at a crucial but often overlooked aspect of conservation—population extinction, or the loss of a species within a specific geographic location—guides us onto a new, hopeful path.”

I mentioned the role that the Haber-Bosch process played in population overshoot, more details at Haber-Bosch process

Below is the last recorded debate I had with Paul, Guy, Pauline and other colleagues.

All of the debate notes and embedded links for the above show can be found at: Professor Paul Ehrlich, Nuclear Winter and the Unfolding Human Predicament.

As Elisabeth Robson wrote on her Substack post: Paul Ehrlich Was Early, Not Wrong

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Asalamu Alaikum, Amandla ngawhetu, Tiocfaidh ár lá.

Posted in Uncategorized

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Notable Quotes by James Connolly

Let’s talk ‘Nonlinearity’.Greenland ice melt has surged sixfold and scientists are alarmed

Let’s talk ‘Nonlinearity’.
Greenland ice melt has surged sixfold and scientists are alarmed