Professor Andrew Glikson “The looming Methane Time Bomb”.

Posted on July 10, 2018 by Kevin Hester — 11 Comments

The July 2018 episode of Nature Bats Last on The Progressive Radio Network covered two recent articles published by Professor Andrew Glikson from the Australian National University.
Professor Glikson was unable to connect for the live show so I read cruical aspects of the articles and have added my analysis and observations.
The audio is embedded here;
Central to the show was this article published in Global Research titled “The Methane Time Bomb and the Future of the Biosphere”.

Methane release from permafrost

“Early warnings are manifest. Expeditions along the East Siberian Arctic Shelf in 2011 led by the Russian scientists Igor Semiletov and Natalia Shakova identified a large number of km-size sea bed structures from which methane plumes were bubbling. The East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) is reported to be highly perforated and close to thawing”.

I quoted Joanna Macy from her article titled “The Greatest Danger” in context of talking about the severity of the multitude of crises we face; “Because of social taboos, despair at the state of our world and fear for our future are rarely acknowledged. The suppression of despair, like that of any deep recurring response, contributes to the numbing of the psyche.” As a “Blue Water” ocean sailing skipper, I am obliged to consider worst case scenarios and strategies in the event of a catastrophic failure of my vessel and the implications that could have for my passengers, crew and myself ( in that order). I suspect one of the reasons I am so involved and vocal in the climate/extinction crises, when most won’t even acknowledge their existence, is that my life experiences have prepared me for the unfolding shipwreck we are all experiencing. It’s not in my nature to avoid the issue, it would go against everything I have learned in 16 ocean passages and hundreds of coastal races and the experience of living in two war zones. The Greatest Danger

During the show the studio played my oral presentation to the N.Z. Government Ministry of the Environment in 2015

I will be making another submission to the “Ministry of the Environment” where I shall quote Canadian scientist William Rees. At the 1hr 10min mark William Rees says “The Scientifically neccessary is politically unfeasable. The politically feasable is scientifically irrelevant”.Therein lies the nub of the predicament we find ourselves in. Nothing being proposed is relevant to the severity of the multitude of converging crises we face.

“As glaciers melt, sea levels rise at an accelerate rate and intense hurricanes and wildfires increase, by a factor of ~3 since early in the 20^th century, unthinkable consequences of runaway global warming and nuclear wars loom. A new Orwellian age of fake news, half-truths, cover-ups and false flags is becoming the order of the day. The Orwellian Climate and Faustian Bargain
Professor Glikson has agreed to be my guest on the 7th August at 3p.m. E.S.T. on Nature Bats Last on PRN.FM
Feel free to post any questions you’d like him to answer in the August episode directly in the comments section of this blog below.

Methane Bubbles

The photo above is methane bubbles percolating through the water column to the surface in the Arctic.

Before taking your children on “The Trip of a Lifetime” consider this;
“Tourism, including flights, hotels, food and even the production of souvenirs, emitted the equivalent of 4.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2013, the most recent data available, or 8 percent of all man-made greenhouse gases, up from 3.9 billion in 2009, it said.” Indulging ourselves with tourism in a climate crisis is omnicide.
“Booming tourism emits 8 percent of greenhouse gases, study shows”.

Methane Fire

Burning methane on frozen lakes is a sign of the times!
More information on the methane risk below courtesy of Paul Beckwith;
Bubble Bubble, Methane Trouble

Posted in Methane, Podcasts, Rapid Climate Change

Buckle Up and Cut the Crap, we’re on the ‘Belt Road’ to Armageddon.

Posted on June 22, 2018 by Kevin Hester — 17 Comments

“The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) simply blows out of the water anything else that’s been attempted in human history.”
“As currently planned, it will involve some 7,000 separate infrastructure or extractive industry projects scattered across 70-odd nations, with a total price-tag of $8 trillion. It’ll span half the planet — from Asia to Africa, Europe and the South Pacific. It’ll affect every facet of human endeavor, in one way or another.”
It will be business as usual on steroids.

It’s way past the time that we need to get our heads out of our arses or our slave owners ones and be realistic about the fact that the juggernaut we are strapped into has already careened off the cliff. The only two things I can see derailing this latest lunacy is war or the collapse of industrial civilisation, which is in-itself now an extinction event for our favourite species due to the loss of ‘Global Dimming’ ,with it’s attendant temperature spike and the meltdown of 350 + nuclear plants and their more horrific 1300 odd spent fuel pool fires.
I expect we’ll get both as the last few resource wars are fought to our bitter end.

To get a sense of perspective lets look at just one of the 7000 projects courtesy of The Third Pole

Will Two Chinese Dams affect the Belt and Road Initative?
“China Three Gorges Corporation (CTG)received the licence to develop the West Seti dam in 2011 after the Australian firm SMEC, which held the permit for over a decade, failed to raise investment for the project.”
“CTG representatives are now asking the government to guarantee a 17% return on investment besides issuing a sovereign guarantee. If these conditions are not met, they say the project will not be feasible.”
A 17% guaranteed return with a sovereign guarantee! Every predatory investor on the already crippled planet will compete for some skin in that ‘game’.

Now factor in the dire consequences of the other 6999 projects. Starting to get my drift are we?

By all means lower your carbon footprint however you can but lets keep a sense of perspective on where we are at. All the squirly lightbulbs, electric cars, solar panels, wind generators and best of intentions in the world won’t mitigate the carbon footprint of a small fraction of this series of projects.
It’s way past the time that the so called alternative energy options are able to mitigate our predicament to date, especially considering the 10 to 30 year lag between emissions and when we see their full consequences manifest, let alone this latest nightmare. The inertia in the system is enormous.
We need to stop lying to ourselves and our youth that the department of capitalism that markets renewables to the unquestioning is a viable ‘alternative’ in the bigger scheme of things.

The carbon emissions alone from such a series of projects will be mind boggling but wait, there’s always more;
“In biodiversity and environmental terms, again, it’s the worst thing we’ve seen anywhere — and in the past forty years, I and my colleagues have seen some pretty horrific stuff in the Amazon, Africa, Southeast Asia and the South Pacific. I actually think the BRI will have a greater net impact on ecosystems than it does global warming.”

Recently on this blog I referred to the removal of 150 to 200 species every day as the ultimate game of Climate Change and Extinction Jinga Imagine the chaos this proposal will have on the already precarious situation we find ourselves and our other earthlings in!

More detail below on the “The Belt and Road Initiative” ;
China’s Global Energy Initative Could Bring Environmental Catastrophe;

It is imperative that we Join the Dots and be honest with ourselves and those we love when facing the climate/extinction crises. We are so far up shit creek that the nonsense being espoused by the Green and Left Parties on renewables and carbon quotas by some far off date like 2030 or 2050 needs to be challenged and dismissed for the snake oil it really is. It’s little more than re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic after the stern has sunk below the irradiated, plastercised, hypoxic “Canfield Ocean”.
We are being distracted by corporate NGO’s that need you to sign near worthless online petitions and for you to send money for their very survival. Many of them are now little more than another one of the corporations that are grinding the living planet into dust. I saw a petition today that was petitioning the White House that Slaves Built. WTF are you thinking petitioning the White House? Whatever you’re smoking is making you delusional. Don and the other swamp rats await the rapture. Runaway abrupt climate change is a gift from their evangelical ‘God’.

If your reading this blog regularly, you’ll know that the situation is extremely dire from what we know but there is so much we have yet to grasp and uncover. There can only be a host of so called “Black Swan Events” waiting to appear when we least expect.
There is a veritable “Shit Storm” coming ready or not. Everything is happening faster than previously thought.

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Catastrophe, Collapse, Energy Industry, Rapid Climate Change

Abrupt Climate Change and Extinction ‘Jenga’. The very last ‘game’ on Earth.

Posted on June 19, 2018 by Kevin Hester — 11 Comments

Since the dawn of Industrial Civilisation we have been involved in a giant game of Jenga and the pieces to the puzzle are our fellow earthlings. One by one we have been removing them from the intricate fabric of the biosphere and now as collapse is unfolding most sapiens fein surprise and shock. We cannot continue to condemn to extinction 150 to 200 species every day without eventually facing the consequences. That time is now, the piper is calling. Death by a thousand cuts to the biosphere is just that, extinction now beckons.
Everyone who has played ‘Jenga’ will know that as each piece is removed, the entire edifice becomes more and more unstable until Collapse unfolds.
Anyone paying any attention to the climate/ extinction crises can see how unstable the biosphere has already become, so much for 2C being safe. ,yet so few are courageous enough to face the severity of the multiple crises that are now unfolding in a non-linear trajectory.This denial of the now obvious leaves us totally unprepared for the imminent collapse, the outcome of every ‘game of Jenga’.
“One of the greatest shortcomings of the human race is it’s inability to comprehend the exponential function” A quote from the late, great Albert Bartlett;

Two scientists that I have previously interviewed on my radio show Nature Bats Last who are courageous enough to face the perfect storm are Professors Guy McPherson a personal friend of mine and Paul Ehrlich

Jenga image courtesy of Ken Avidor, a link to Ken’s great work is embedded here;

I refuse to be the last generation of elder to lie to the last generation of youth. They have been robbed of a future, at the very least they deserve the truth.

At the 13 minute mark in the following embedded link from “Collapse Chronicles“, Judy and Dan Dourson talk about the Collapse of the Southern Appalachian Forests and Judy mentions the analogy of Jenga. Those forests are dying today and yesterday, not long off in the future. Factor in the 10 to 30 year lag between emissions and when their full consequences are felt and any clear headed analyst will understand that the situation is much more dire than has manifest to date with a shit load of warming and chaos already baked in. Governments and the large NGO’s talking about their emissions scenarios for 2030 and beyond are delusional.
Unfolding in parallel to the climate crisis is the collapse of the insect populations on this planet, without insects we cease to exist;
“This point was underlined last week when tweets from the naturalist and TV presenter Chris Packham went viral after he commented on the absence of insects during a weekend at his home in the New Forest. Packham said he had not seen a single butterfly in his garden, and added that he sleeps with his windows open but rarely finds craneflies or moths in his room in the morning. By contrast, they were commonplace when he was a boy.” “Our generation is presiding over an ecological apocalypse and we’ve somehow or other normalised it,” he later said.

Everything we know, love and need for our own survival is going away.
Soon the living will envy the dead.
I am often attacked for speaking about the ongoing 6th great extinction but for me it is a means of; 1) Managing my grief and 2) It is a mea-culpa to all of the species either driven to extinction or on the brink of it. At the very least we need to take ownership of the crimes we have committed every time we turn on a light or drive to the liquor shop (Guilty as charged).

Make the most of every day, time is infinitely shorter than most comprehend. Be nice to each other, only love remains.

“Because of social taboos, despair at the state of our world and fear for our future are rarely acknowledged. The suppression of despair, like that of any deep recurring response, contributes to the numbing of the psyche”. The Greatest Danger by Joanna Macy

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Collapse, Near Term Human Extinction--NTHE

Professor Paul Ehrlich: “The Annihilation of Nature”.

Posted on June 7, 2018 by Kevin Hester — 8 Comments

In this months episode of Nature Bats Last on PRN.FM podcast, I was honoured to re-interview Professor Paul Ehrlich on his book “The Annihilation of Nature”,the show is embedded here:
“The numbers are sobering: Over all, there has been a human-driven decline in the populations of all species by 25% over the past 500 years, but not all groups have suffered equally. Up to a third of all species of vertebrates are now considered threatened, as are 45% of most species of invertebrates. Among the vertebrates, amphibians are getting clobbered, with 41% of species in trouble, compared to just 17% of birds—at least so far. The various orders of insects suffer differently too: 35% of Lepidopteran species are in decline (goodbye butterflies), which sounds bad enough, but it’s nothing compared to the similar struggles of nearly 100% of Orthoptera species (crickets, grasshoppers and katydids, look your last).“The Sixth Great Extinction is Underway and We’re to Blame;

Johns Hopkins University Press, The Annihilation of Nature

Published on Apr 23, 2015

“In this beautiful book, three of today’s most distinguished conservationists tell the stories of the birds and mammals we have lost and those that are now on the road to extinction. These tragic tales, coupled with eighty-three color photographs from the world’s leading nature photographers, display the beauty and biodiversity that humans are squandering.”
For a slide show of the wonderful photo’s and illustrations in this book click on the following link;The Annihilation of Nature

“The oft-repeated claim that Earth’s biota is entering a sixth “mass extinction” depends on clearly demonstrating that current extinction rates are far above the “background” rates prevailing between the five previous mass extinctions. Earlier estimates of extinction rates have been criticized for using assumptions that might overestimate the severity of the extinction crisis. We assess, using extremely conservative assumptions, whether human activities are causing a mass extinction. First, we use a recent estimate of a background rate of 2 mammal extinctions per 10,000 species per 100 years (that is, 2 E/MSY), which is twice as high as widely used previous estimates. We then compare this rate with the current rate of mammal and vertebrate extinctions. The latter is conservatively low because listing a species as extinct requires meeting stringent criteria. Even under our assumptions, which would tend to minimize evidence of an incipient mass extinction, the average rate of vertebrate species loss over the last century is up to 100 times higher than the background rate. Under the 2 E/MSY background rate, the number of species that have gone extinct in the last century would have taken, depending on the vertebrate taxon, between 800 and 10,000 years to disappear.” Accelerated modern human–induced species losses: Entering the sixth mass extinction.

I mentioned in the interview; “The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) simply blows out of the water anything else that’s been attempted in human history. As currently planned, it will involve some 7,000 separate infrastructure or extractive industry projects scattered across 70-odd nations, with a total price-tag of $8 trillion. It’ll span half the planet — from Asia to Africa, Europe and the South Pacific.”
It’s hard for me to think where the sand, let alone the energy for this project will come from,considering to all intents and purposes we have consumed the planets ‘construction sand’ already.China’s Global Infrastructure Initative Could Bring Environmental Catastrophe
Also mentioned was this quote from Joanna Macy:
“Because of social taboos, despair at the state of our world and fear for our future are rarely acknowledged. The suppression of despair, like that of any deep recurring response, contributes to the numbing of the psyche”. The Greatest Danger;

On a similar theme this great You Tube presentation from PaulBeckwith.net ” Human Decimation of Earths Creatures:”
I’ve embedded below another important discussion between Professors Paul Ehrlich and Guy McPherson titled: A Conversation with Paul Ehrlich

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Habitat, Near Term Human Extinction--NTHE, Podcasts

The New Climate Denial Position is to deny Abrupt Climate Change.

Posted on May 15, 2018 by Kevin Hester — 8 Comments

The author of this blog has decided to have the conversations no one wants to have, obviously this is not a marketing proposition.
“Without hope, goes the truism, we will give up. And yet optimism about the future is wishful thinking, says Hillman. He believes that accepting that our civilisation is doomed could make humanity rather like an individual who recognises he is terminally ill. Such people rarely go on a disastrous binge; instead, they do all they can to prolong their lives.”
‘We’re doomed’: Mayer Hillman on the climate reality no one else will dare mention.

Guilt tripping young people that they have to fix the unfixable is unconscionable .
As long as the military industrial complex rages around the world all the squirly light bulbs, solar panels and wind generators on the planet count for nought. The issue isn’t should we use these faux ‘renewables’ but what we expect the outcome to be. By all means lower your carbon footprint just don’t try and bullshit us that it will make a measurable difference. The Second Law of Thermodynamics; The Gaping Hole in the Middle of the Circular Economy
The Military Industrial Complex

Almost no one in the affluent (Effluent ) west wants to give up the overseas holidays enough to extend their childrens lives: Booming tourism emits 8 percent of greenhouse gases, study shows “And on current trends, the trillion-dollar tourism industry will emit 6.5 billion tonnes of carbon emissions by 2025, the review said, making it one of the fastest-growing source of the planet-warming gases that governments are trying to cut.” Have a great holiday kids, it could well be your last.

For quite possibly the best brief round up on abrupt climate change check out the following explanation: Overview Of Abrupt Anthropogenic Climate Change
“The Great Dying wiped out at least 90% of the species on Earth due to an abrupt rise in global-average temperature about 252 million years ago. The vast majority of complex life became extinct. Based on information from the most conservative sources available, Earth is headed for a similar or higher global-average temperature in the very near future. The recent and near-future rises in temperature are occurring and will occur at least three orders of magnitude faster than the worst of all prior Mass Extinctions. Habitat for human animals is disappearing throughout the world, and abrupt climate change has barely begun.” The Real Truth About Health

We are in the early stages of a runaway event that is happening at an order of magnitude faster that ever before, expect the unexpected, sooner than the corporate media is telling you.
In next months episode of Nature Bats Last I will be interviewing Professor Paul Ehrlich on his book “The Annihilation of Nature”.
You can access the Nature Bats Last archive here;
I refuse to be the last generation of elder to lie to the youth.

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Military, Near Term Human Extinction--NTHE, Travels

Are Black Swan events in the Climate Crisis Imminent?

Posted on May 9, 2018 by Kevin Hester — 14 Comments

Tragically for the biosphere and the continuation of complex life on this planet the “Precautionary Principle’ has been cast to the winds as we plunge headlong, full speed ahead into the climate / extinction crisis, not only by failing to meet the pathetically weak aspirations of the non binding Cop21 Climate Agreement in Paris, we fail to allow for the unknown or so called “Black Swan” events that will almost certainly continue to manifest as we navigate blindly through these unchartered, peril filled waters.

This blue water, ocean sailor can’t believe the risks that are being taken by failing to follow the precautionary Principle” and not preparing for possible worst case scenarios that could literally unfold any day now. The failure of the scientific community to convey the urgency of the crisis is a dereliction of duty.

Image courtesy of William Bibb a former guest on Nature Bats Last

We have increased the atmospheric loading of H2O relative to the CO2 forced warming we have dumped into the atmosphere and more significantly, into the oceans, every second of every minute of every hour of every day, week, month and year for the last 300yrs and there is no respite insight. This feedback loop and it’s consequences are largely ignored.
As well as losing heat and water vapour into the atmosphere, as we wipe out the marine food web with acidification and the lunacy of vacuming up the Krill, we lose the carbon sequestering species and the oceans become carbon emitters rather than sinks. That feedback is non-linear just like the sea ice albedo feedback loop.

With regards to the Arctic Sea Ice and it’s resultant feedback loop, normally sober commentators describe us as having “Fallen off a Cliff”.
““We’ve fallen off a cliff,” said Rick Thoman, a climatologist at the National Weather Service in Alaska, in a tweet.
When I asked former guest on my radio show, Nature Bats Last on the Progressive Radio Network Professor Andrew Glickson, “How long before we see “Canfield Oceans” he replied “We’re seeing them now”.

Professor Glickson emailed me a copy of his recent article; The Methane Time Bomb and the Future of the Biosphere:

The Arctic Sea Ice situation is extremely dire and the concern many of us have is the potential release of the 50 gigatonne burst of methane predicted by Dr Natalia Shakova mentioned in the above hyperlinked article “The Methane Time Bomb”.
“President Niinisto in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’

When, not if, we get a large, anomalous discharge of methane during this summer melt season or another substantial surprise, like the stalling or worse still the collapse of the AMOC we will sooner or later reach a tipping point when the public at large will realise that we have crossed the rubicon and are heading into the abyss. Very, very quickly we could and imho will see a collapse of confidence in our civilisation.

Another former guest on Nature Bats Last Professor Paul Ehrlich recently predicted in a Guardian article: “A shattering collapse of civilisation is a “near certainty” in the next few decades due to humanity’s continuing destruction of the natural world that sustains all life on Earth.

We are one “Black Swan” event away from seeing the collapse of industrial civilisation and the end to complex life on this planet. Don’t for a nano-second believe we have a decade or two, the tipping point could arrive tomorrow or could have unfolded by the time the reader finds this humble contribution to the debate.
Talking about the worst case scenarios we are facing is considered alarmist yet ignoring them is mal-practice.

As I chronicle the unraveling of the biosphere, I am finding more and more credible experts coming to the same conclusions: From a lecture titled “Stop Fascism: Chris Hedges in Portland Oregon”.
“But even as we stand on the cusp of extinction we lack the ability to free ourselves from the myth of human progress” ( at the 38 minute mark).” “There is a familiar check list for extinction, we are ticking every one of them .”
Normally Chris Hedges skirts around our imminent extinction but not today. In this great presentation he calls out the cowboy capitalism that has ground the living planet into dust. Hedges also ridicules Donald J. Trump as the “Idiot in chief”.
I’ve added this presentation to the comments section of my blog post on Chris Hedges titled ;
The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies.

Additional reading on this subject below;
‘We’re doomed’: Mayer Hillman on the climate reality no one else will dare mention”

For one of the best roundups of the situation we face check out this brief synopsis: “Overview Of Abru pt Anthropogenic Climate Change”

The Lunatics are in charge of our sinking ship

On the 25th of May 2018 I am editing this post to include a link from“The Collapse Chronicles” to include the following excellent interview: “John Casti: “I’m Not Optimistic that the World 30 years from now is one I want to wake up into”. His timelines I believe are very ‘optimistic’ but the pathways and analysis is spot on. I will email him and request an interview myself for my radio show Natur aBats Last on PRN.FM

May the force be with you, you sure are going to need it. Soon the living will envy the dead.

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Collapse, Feedback loops, Methane, Near Term Human Extinction--NTHE

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Activism is the rent I pay for occupying space in the most beautiful and complex biosphere we know of.