“We have exquisite information about what that state is, because we have a paleo record going back millions of years, when the earth had no ice at either pole. There was almost no temperature difference between the equator and the pole,” said James Anderson, a Harvard University professor of atmospheric chemistry best known for establishing that chlorofluorocarbons were damaging the Ozone Layer.”
“The ocean was running almost 10ºC warmer all the way to the bottom than it is today,” Anderson said of this once-and-future climate, “and the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere would have meant that storm systems would be violent in the extreme, because water vapor, which is an exponential function of water temperature, is the gasoline that fuels the frequency and intensity of storm systems.”
“This has to be done, Anderson added, within the next five years.” Oops, Published Jan 15, 2018
“The chance that there will be any permanent ice left in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero,” Anderson said, with 75 to 80 percent of permanent ice having melted already in the last 35 years.
“Can we lose 75-80 percent of permanent ice and recover? The answer is no.”
Not mentioned in Guy’s latest work is that as CO2 levels in the atmosphere increase, the nutritional value of the crops decreases, in a double whammy. I doubt that Sara Manker’s analysis factors in the non-linearity we are witnessing in the climate system, nor the war in Ukraine, that will drastically lower its food production this year and for the foreseeable future. Rising CO2 is reducing nutritional value of food, impacting ecosystems.
“Things are far worse than you are being told. Over the past few months, I have been carefully documenting facts that show that global food production is going to be way down in 2022. Unfortunately, most people out there don’t seem to understand that the food that isn’t being grown in 2022 won’t be on our store shelves in 2023. We are potentially facing an absolutely unprecedented worldwide food crisis next year, but the vast majority of the population doesn’t seem very alarmed about this.” A List Of 33 Things We Know About The Coming Food Shortages
Abstract “In the 1972 bestseller Limits to Growth (LtG), the authors concluded that, if global society kept pursuing economic growth, it would experience a decline in food production, industrial output, and ultimately population, within this century. The LtG authors used a system dynamics model to study interactions between global variables, varying model assumptions to generate different scenarios. Previous empirical-data comparisons since then by Turner showed closest alignment with a scenario that ended in collapse. This research constitutes a data update to LtG, by examining to what extent empirical data aligned with four LtG scenarios spanning a range of technological, resource, and societal assumptions. The research benefited from improved data availability since the previous updates and included a scenario and two variables that had not been part of previous comparisons. The two scenarios aligning most closely with observed data indicate a halt in welfare, food, and industrial production over the next decade or so, which puts into question the suitability of continuous economic growth as humanity’s goal in the twenty-first century.”
As we watch the US banking system totter and begin to collapse, like the proverbial Jenga stack, we need to consider the implications this has for the global financial system and its supply chains. I’ll begin with the stellar work of David Korowicz published on
Overview
“This study considers the relationship between a global systemic banking, monetary and solvency crisis and its implications for the real-time flow of goods and services in the globalised economy. It outlines how contagion in the financial system could set off semi-autonomous contagion in supply-chains globally, even where buyers and sellers are linked by solvency, sound money and bank intermediation. The cross-contagion between the financial system and trade/production networks is mutually reinforcing.”
“It is argued that in order to understand systemic risk in the globalised economy, account must be taken of how growing complexity (interconnectedness, interdependence and the speed of processes), the de-localisation of production and concentration within key pillars of the globalised economy have magnified global vulnerability and opened up the possibility of a rapid and large-scale collapse. ‘Collapse’ in this sense means the irreversible loss of socio-economic complexity which fundamentally transforms the nature of the economy. These crucial issues have not been recognised by policy-makers nor are they reflected in economic thinking or modelling.” Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapse
The Modern Economy, Civilisation, Complexity & Collapse – David Korowicz
“Last year, vials of the decades-old chemotherapy drug fludarabine could be purchased for a wholesale price of around $110. Not so much anymore.”
“This year, one company—Areva Pharmaceuticals—has jacked the figure up to $2,736, Stat News reports.”
In the video discussion below, recorded seven years ago between Professor Guy McPherson and myself we discuss the tenuous state of the supply chain.
Edge of Extinction: Disruption of Supply Chain
“By 2027 the world could be facing a 214 trillion calorie deficit, says Sara Menker, founder and chief executive of Gro Intelligence, an agricultural data technology company.” Published in 2018, do the math: We Have Five Years To Save Ourselves From Climate Change, Harvard Scientist Says” So which goes first? The Supply Chain or the Food?
When not if Industrial Civilisation collapses we lose the “Aerosol Masking Effect” as pointed out by one of my readers in the comments section below, hence this edit on March 15th. “The impact of the aerosol masking effect has been greatly underestimated, as pointed out in an 8 February 2019 article in Science. As indicated by the lead author of this paper on 25 January 2019: “Global efforts to improve air quality by developing cleaner fuels and burning less coal could end up harming our planet by reducing the number of aerosols in the atmosphere, and by doing so, diminishing aerosols’ cooling ability to offset global warming.”
As the ongoing collapse unfolds as always, I’ll add additional links and information below in the comments section. Feel free to do the same, make yourself part of the story.
I’m a first generation immigrant born in Aotearoa New Zealand to an Irish couple, both of whom were born into actively engaged Irish Republican Families. Ma’s dad worked in the Irish health department, he became a Quartermaster in the Irish Citizen Army. He was captured with weapons, arrested, charged, and imprisoned. Whilst in prison he served 23 days on hunger strike. His health was forever compromised.
Da’s family had a long history of republicanism, that led to his two older brothers having to escape to America whilst being hunted by the merciless “Black and Tans”. He never saw them again after he emigrated to Aotearoa New Zealand. Had I been born in either the war zone, or the Free State, I seriously doubt I would have survived my 20’s.
When I was 21 the 1981 hunger strike was underway by the 10 brave men in the occupied 6 counties jail, you know, like one of those gulags where world renowned journalist Julian Assange is being publicly tortured to death as I write. I remember watching Ma walking around the house weeping, “What must their Mamies be going through”. She knew what they were going through, as she had watched her mum go through the same trauma. One by one those heroic comrades starved to death whilst the monster Margaret Thatcher ignored their simple demands to not wear a prisoners uniform and be treated as political prisoners as was their right under the Geneva Conventions. The mid-eighties rolled around, and I set off to Ireland to make some sense of it all and to show some solidarity. Dean Parker a NZ playwright and fellow member of the H Block Committee in NZ gave me the address of some comrades affiliated to the Irish Republican Socialist Party and I was off to witness the war.
An incredible aspect of the war was how people maintained their sense of humour, Irish gallows humour was everywhere to be found in the occupied 6 counties.
One evening I was invited to have drinks at The Felons Belfast and arrived promptly on time to occupy a table for four, all my mates were ‘fashionably late’. Shortly after two gorgeous young women entered the bar and asked if they could share our table ! Who was I to deny them a seat in their own pub! The Felons provided jobs for the partners and families of prisoners and much of the profits went to the prisoners fund! Innovative bunch these Paddies! Another thing I learned was that many of the Glazing companies were owned by the ‘RA’, another source of funding. Blow them up, sell them more. All war zones are ‘gamed’ by someone.
One thing led to another and these two young revolutionaries invited us to their home for another drink. I said I didn’t have anything to bring and they laughed and said “We’ll get Take Outs”. We left with booze from the bar and made our way in a cab to Ballymurphy !
The “Murph” was famous for a slaughter carried out by the British Parachute Regiment in 1971. That slaughter led to both the INLA and the PIRA having their own brigades evolve in this one tiny suburb in the conflict zone.
When I entered Edie’s home the first thing I saw was a framed Irish Tricolour flag with a beret and gloves centre piece, hanging on the wall. This is something given to the families of our fallen volunteers. Remarkably Edie’s husband and I were born on the same day with the same first name. It kind of freaked us all out ! Kevin Delaney had died when the bomb he was transporting prematurely detonated ! R.I.P. comrade.
We had a great night and around 4am I set out down the hill towards the Falls Rd and then ‘home’ on Donegal Rd. At this time in our history you couldn’t walk 1000m in Belfast without ‘bumping into’ a Brit patrol. One soldier would search you whilst the others trained their guns on you. To have half a dozen soldiers pointing guns at you in anger is disconcerting, more so because I could see the fear in their eyes! These young Brits were perpetually in fear whilst on patrol. I was first stopped near the top of the White Rock Rd, put up against a wall, frisked, hassled, slapped around, kicked like a dog and released. Not long after I reached the Falls Rd, hung a left and walked past the off-licence opposite the Rock Bar as a dude was carrying boxes of booze from the pathway adjacent to the establishment and loading them into an Austin A40!!! He offered me a bottle of Whiskey, I declined politely and shuffled another 20m and turned right onto Donegal Rd, wondering wtf was going on! As I walked down Donegal Road a Saracen and two armoured Land Rovers raced passed me, 3 soldiers in the turrets all training their Steyr assault rifles on me.
They flew passed me and when they got to the intersection with the Falls Road they stopped in a road block formation.
The plucky wee Austin A40 bounced off the side of one of the Land Rovers and was screaming, slowly, down the road towards me, the Brits immediately opened fire spraying automatic weapons fire down a residential street, in my direction. I heard the A40 being perforated with bullets as it ‘sped slowly’ towards me. I saw sparks fly off the vehicle and the road indicating that they were using “Full Metal Jacket” ammunition. Note to self and others, never use an Austin A40 as a getaway car! Note the message on the Land Rover below. Informants were called ‘Tout’s’, we were betrayed by many informants.
I instantly dived onto my hands and knees in an adjacent pathway and I could hear bullets going through the foliage near and above me. I’m uncertain if they were trying to kill me but if not they were lousy shots because my position was a long way from the illustrious Austin A40’s path down the road. These monsters were spraying bullets down a residential street, it was common behaviour from the occupying forces. I crawled to the doorway of the house and tentatively knocked on the door whilst still on my hands and knees, pretty much in shock! The curtain moved, the occupant had a look around then opened the door, reached out a huge hand, grabbed my collar and dragged me into his house and closed the door.
Then in an incredibly thick Belfast brogue he asked this startled kid “Who are you, what’s going on and why are the Brits shooting at you” Reasonable enough questions I suppose lol. I told him my name, where I was staying and who with. He laughed and replied “Oh, you’re the Kiwi I’ve heard about, make yourself at home.” Then with fingers pursed to his lips he whispered “The Brits will be at the door any second, don’t say a word, don’t move a muscle”. All the while my heart rate is through the roof and my chest is heaving !
Nekminit pounding on the door and in a broad Cockney accent the Brit, silhouetted through the glass door, rifle and all, yelled “Open up or I’ll smash the door down.” All the while my ‘host’ has his fingers to his lips and mimes “Say Nothing, Don’t Move’. The Brit hung around for a moment or two and then was called back by his commanding officer in the Saracen and they drove off. My host offered me a whiskey and a sleeping bag and I was invited to sleep on the couch. Even though I was only 50m from my home it was suggested that I lie low until later in the morning. I gratefully accepted the hospitality that put them in danger.
I woke up a few hours later with a small girl asking “Mister, who are you, why are you sleeping on our couch”. If you want an idea of what the Belfast kids are like check out Becky and multiply her militancy by 100. I once heard a woman ask an 11 yr old what she wanted to do when she left school. She replied “I want to join the IRA and drive the the Brits out of our country”. All the children in war zones are traumatised. No soldier, nor civilian returns from war uninjured. On multiple occasions I watched Brits use kids as “Human Shields”, another war crime.
I was generously given breakfast, we retold the story to the neighbours and I went ‘home’ where I was questioned on the nights action. Later that day I was told that I was invited to a party in the adjacent St James and all the booze was ‘on the house’. Can you see where this is going? Remarkably the stoic Austin A40 had escaped the clutches of the Brits and whilst some of the loot had been ‘spilled’ as the car was ‘perforated’ much was saved and I was invited to imbibe and share my version of events. It was fascinating to see the camaraderie that these people developed during the war.
Not long after this ‘incident’ I was at the funeral of a young INLA volunteer in Strabane who had been shot whilst on ‘Active Duty’ by a Brit sniper. I took 3 of my IRSP comrades down in my car for the funeral. The Brits searched the car in the morning, removing the seats, the carpets and the door linings. When they were finished they walked away leaving me to put it all back together. ‘Community building’ that’s referred to apparently! We jumped in my German registered VW Golf and set out for Strabane. Whilst still on the Falls road smoke started coming from under the hood and I stopped at the adjacent petrol station knowing they would have a fire extinguisher to put the fire out. The bastards had put some flammable material on my manifold and it caught fire as planned when the car heated up. One of the many reasons the Brits were hating on me was the Provo’s were bumping off Brit soldiers regularly in Germany so they didn’t like seeing a German car in the Occupied 6 counties!
We arrived at the Catholic Church in Strabane where the service was being held and being a bunch of ‘Commies’ we didn’t enter the church but remained on the doorstep. That night footage of the funeral was shown on the BBC, the British Bullshitting Corporation.
When the ceremony ended we hung outside to chat with the other mourners. All the while the funeral attendees were surrounded by Brits brandishing assault rifles, choppers over head, Saracens and armoured Land Rovers all around us whilst we were mourning the death of a young volunteer. Shot by these very same people. Ma saw the clip on TV in New Zealand and recognised me, tracked me down through Dean Parker, got my number and called me with money she couldn’t spare and said “Son, Ireland doesn’t need anymore Martyr’s you know”. It freaked Ma out that I was back in the war zone, angry as fuck and being assaulted by the Brits.
The four of us got into the Golf and went to leave and were pulled over within 100m of the Church carpark. We were separated and interrogated individually. A Brit officer pulled me aside and said “WTF is a Kiwi electrician doing over here hanging out with known terrorists”. I replied “Rubbish, I’ve only just met you”. He instantly lashed out and punched me in the sternum. I thought he had collapsed my ribcage! Before he could assault me again another Brit touched his shoulder and said “Bob, too many cameras”!!! When we left, the one person in the car who I didn’t know well, went ape shit at me for provoking the Brit. He said “What have you been told to say when being interrogated? STFU. All they need to do is shoot you and then they slip a ‘short’ into your belt and say, “He went for his gun”, end of investigation.”
I did a lot of growing up in the occupied six counties. I was fortunate to meet such caring people who kept me out of trouble and didn’t take advantage of my youthful anger.
Many years later I had the honour of naming a road in Aotearoa New Zealand after Patsy O’Hara, one of the INLA volunteers who died in the 1981 hunger strike. I’ve written about that here; My Tribute to My Comrade Patsy O’Hara and His Family After this ‘adventure’ I returned to my home in Ashaffenburg in Bavaria and within days I was pulled over by a ‘Plain Clothes” police vehicle. The German cop or spook walked up to the drivers window and said, “Welcome back from Belfast Kevin “, in perfect English. He walked away without waiting for a reply, pure intimidation.
Ireland divided will never know peace;
This song was often sung in our singalongs in Belfast. Kevin Barry was an 18 yr old medical student hung by the Brits. Listen to the lyrics and his heroism. Kevin was no ‘Tout’, his lynching was proof of his loyalty. Irish Republican music was a salve to our wounds. Ma used to sing this song to me as a kid and then got shitty with me when I headed into the war zone. It’s the dilemma that all parents are confronted with in oppressed societies.
When I first arrived in the war zone, I was uncertain of my position on the “Armed Struggle”, and fascinatingly it was an elderly Patsy Marron that convinced me that the armed struggle wasn’t a choice our people made but was forced upon us. The state was out of control and the pogroms were well documented. Patsy convinced me it was our duty to resist and protect our own communities if the state had no intention of doing so. The rest is history.
Patsy Marron, continuing the struggle as seen here when she was 92yrs old.
After I left the occupied six counties, I went to Gibraltar to help a friend’s computer company install computers at a new bank. I had to walk over the footpath where Mairead Farell, Dan McCann and Sean Savage were murdered in cold blood by the British SAS on March 6th, 1988. Mairéad was shot in the back along with her comrades Séan Savage and Daniel McCann, as they walked unarmed. Britain always denied that they had a “Shoot to Kill” policy with us Irish Republicans but the evidence is clear.
Sean was shot 18 times. “Farrell, Watson said, “was hit by five bullets to the face and neck and three in the back. . . . Danny McCann was shot twice in the head and twice in the back.”
Tiocfaidh ár lá , our day will come. Ireland divided shall never know peace. I’m posting this on the 25th anniversary of the execution style murder of Mairead, Sean and Dan. R.I.P. comrades.
The urgency these concerned individuals display reflects the danger the entire planet is in, with the pathologically insane lunatics of the Military Industrial Congressional Complex provoking China and Russia at the same time. This, by definition, is insanity and a step change in cold war posturing quickly morphing into a hot war. For me the first shots in WW3 have been fired, by the usual suspects.
In half a century of monitoring geo-politics we have never been so close to potential armageddon, imho.
In the link below, various speakers on the Security Council mention the huge ecological consequences of the terrorist attack on the Nordstream pipelines.
“Professor Jeffrey Sachs and Ray Address UN Security Council under the rubric ‘Threats to International Peace and Security’ February 21, 2023. (Each was asked to include discussion of the Hersh report on Nord Stream.) Sachs: minute 21:00 to 31:23; McGovern: min. 31:24 to 48:46″ circa Ray McGovern. Threats to international peace and security – Security Council, 9266th meeting
Seymour Hersh’s block buster report, that has been ignored by all the corporate media, surprise surprise, is embedded following: How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline Subheading: “The New York Times called it a “mystery,” but the United States executed a covert sea operation that was kept secret – Until Now.”
“American Empire is merely the most lethal manifestation of industrial civilization, hence any civilization. Because this culture is inextricably interconnected with this civilization, I have concluded that contemporary culture is worthy of our individual and collective condemnation. Walking away from empire is necessary but insufficient to terminate this horrific culture.” The Trifecta of Imperialism
The Trifecta of Imperialism.
I was living in Germany when the wall came down and the Nato block/Warsaw pact negotiations took place. We lived and breathed those negotiations. Many of us were appalled at the poor wording of the agreement. Nato agreed to not move 1 inch East and they have breached that agreement continuously ever since. Installing a puppet, neo-nazi government on Russia’s border reopens the mortal wound of 27 million Russians who died at the hands of fascism. A Rubicon has been crossed and Nato has opened the doors of hell. Lay the blame at the feet of the aggressors NATO, not at the predictable response of a proud nation that will never forget nor forgive the slaughter of 20 + millions of their people.
As the dynamics unfold keep a wary eye out for more so called “False Flag’s” being used to justify military expansionism.
As the triple dip La Niña wanes, we need to consider the consequences of the next El Niño on the Arctic Sea Ice minimum, which ‘normally’ unfolds in the middle of September. That could soon stretch into October, adding weeks to the melt season, with its attendant consequences.
Senior Management Pauline Schneider, First Mate Guy McPherson, Skipper Kevin Hester.
“The ENSO Outlook continues at LA NIÑA, but La Niña is weakening.” “Although NINO indices in the tropical Pacific are similar to two weeks ago, cool sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and particularly the eastern tropical Pacific have weakened. However, the atmosphere remains indicative of La Niña.” “Climate models anticipate neutral ENSO during February 2023.” “La Niña typically increases the chance of above average summer rainfall in northern and eastern Australia.”
We’ll have more certainty in May or June 2023. I expect it to be a catastrophic tipping point and “Step Change” in the great unravelling of the biosphere. The Great Barrier Reef and I wait with bated breath, sigh. ENSO Forecast; An alert system for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
I’ve previously delved into the issue of climate grief: The Coming Tsunami of Grief Managing our grief and more importantly the grief of our youth, is our biggest pre-collapse challenge.
It’s impossible to have this discussion without addressing the issue of tipping points we’ve already triggered. Guy McPherson has chronicled over six dozen in his monster climate change essay “Climate Change Summary”.
One of the audience questions concerned the slowing down of the AMOC. My reply was that its current consequence has been the disruption of the Jetstream’s. Jennifer Francis has done excellent, if conservative work in this field. Jennifer Francis – Understanding the Jetstream
Below is an image of what the Jetstream’s used to look like. To see what it looks like today check out “Climate Reanalyzer” for the latest meandering!
The critical issue Professor McPherson and I wish to convey is the rapidity of the unravelling. To quote Professor Albert Bartlett: “The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race is our Inability to Truly Understand the Exponential Function.
Good luck everyone, we sure are going to need it! Soon the living will envy the dead. Have your own say on our predicament below & subscribe to the blog to keep up with my interpretation of the great unravelling of the biosphere. Aroha Nui from Aotearoa New Zealand. If you feel the urge to buy me a pint or two you can do it via Paypal: kevin@iconicproperties.co.nz
A recurring theme, as we chronicle the unravelling of the biosphere, is the term “Sooner than Previously Thought”. Every prediction of cause and effect in the climate system is happening much sooner than expected or predicted. Clearly, we have grossly underestimated “Climate Sensitivity.” I covered that catastrophic failing previously, Full Earth System Sensitivity to CO2 has been Grossly Underestimated We shouldn’t be surprised that a violent patriarchy underestimated “Climate Sensitivity”.
Because the narrative has been controlled by the dominant culture of Industrial Civilisation and its proponents, the corporations who control all the mainstream media, we have been corralled into ‘believing’ that we could destabilise the atmosphere ‘safely’ by increasing global mean temperatures by 1.5 or 2C. Neither of these guardrails or what has now become missed targets, were either safe or achievable. The Myth of 2C Being Safe and Achievable
William Nordhaus won a Nobel Peace Prize for sealing the planets destruction with his unscientific hypothesis that 2C was safe. What he really meant was he thought Capitalism could survive a 2C temperature increase. The ecosystem’s slow but accelerating and torturous demise proves him catastrophically wrong. Moving the ‘Goal Posts’ or the baseline date to calculate anthropogenic warming has become an art form that even many climate scientists turn a blind eye to. Baseline Temperature dishonesty at the Edge of Extinction
The following data and analysis courtesy of @SamCarana from the Arctic News Blog: What is pre-industrial? “The Paris Agreement called for a special report by the IPCC on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In the report, the IPCC first defines pre-industrial as “the multi-century period prior to the onset of large-scale industrial activity around 1750”. Yet, the IPCC then proceeds to use the period 1850-1900 to “approximate” pre-industrial. This raises the questions, has the IPCC been downplaying the temperature rise and is this continuing? “
The entire debate around what level of destabilisation of the atmosphere we can ‘get away with’ is in itself omnicidal and in no small way clinically insane but having said that the whole culture is insane. Complex systems are vulnerable to minor perturbations and there is nothing minor about the larceny we are conducting. Tristan Sykes one of the co-founders of “Just Collapse” points out that we add the equivalent of 4 Hiroshima nuclear bombs of energy per second to our atmosphere, this is war.
When did the temperature start rising?
“Orbital changes are responsible for Milankovitch cycles that make Earth move in and out of periods of glaciation, or Ice Ages. Summer insolation on the Northern Hemisphere reached a peak some 10,500 years ago, in line with the Milankovitch cycles, and insolation has since gradually decreased.”
Oceans and the snow & ice cover have been acting as a buffer
“While temperatures rose rapidly in the past, especially during the period leading up to the insolation peak, the speed at which temperatures did rise was moderated by oceans and by the snow and ice cover, in a number of ways:”
Emissions by people
“While emission by people did accelerate since the start of the Industrial Revolution and even more recently, the rise in emission by people had already started thousands of years ago with the rise in modern agriculture and associated deforestation” “The temperature has risen accordingly since those times. In the year 1520, temperatures had risen by 0.29°C, compared to some 5000 years earlier. When also taking into account that the temperature would have fallen naturally (i.e. in the absence of these emissions), the early temperature rise caused by people may well be twice as much.”
“Conclusion“ “For thousands of years, people have been causing emissions that made the temperature rise. From 3480 BC, the forcing of these emissions became even stronger than the natural trend for temperatures to come down, in line with decreasing Summer insolation on the Northern Hemisphere. The term “natural” can be ambiguous, as forest fires and albedo changes are often regarded as “natural forcing”, but of course the deliberate acts of peat burning and cutting down trees can hardly be regarded as ‘natural’.”
“Anyway, the net effect was that the temperature started to rise from 3480 BC, so it makes sense to calculate temperature anomalies versus that year as pre-industrial base. The rise from pre-industrial to 2020 could thus be as much as 2.29°C, which would mean that the thresholds set at the Paris Agreement have already been crossed and the rise from pre-industrial may well exceed 3°C soon, in turn effectively making 3°C the (new) threshold that should not be crossed.”
As a footnote don’t forget the Aerosol Masking Effect or Global Dimming. Dr James E Hansen described the AME as our Faustian Bargain, more on that sleeping giant here; Global Dimming Keeping the Planet Habitable
We have been aware that burning fossil fuels would alter, destabilise and warm the atmosphere since at least 1847 and the narrative has been controlled since shortly thereafter. Had we described the phenomenon as creating what it is, a “Planetary Gas Chamber” for most, if not all complex life on the planet, perhaps we might have acted to save the biosphere rather than perpetuate the extraction industry which is in the accelerating process of incinerating the entire ecosystem. What an incredible irony that a Republican Congressman from the USA was the first person (that I am aware of, feel free to correct me below if I’m wrong) to give a lecture on human induced climate change. We have been through a raft of ‘slogans’ that have all downplayed the reality that the unfettered incineration of fossil fuels would negatively alter the atmospheric energy and ‘Green House Gas’ balance. “Green House”, such an innocuous term for an existential threat, tailored to not scare the serfs. A near-forgotten speech made by a US congressman warned of global warming and the mismanagement of natural resources in 1847 The 1847 lecture that predicted human-induced climate change. “But I would argue his defining moment came on 30 September 1847, when, as a congressman for the Whig party (a forerunner of the Republican party), he gave a lecture to the Agricultural Society of Rutland County, Vermont. (The speech was published a year later.) It proved to be the intellectual spark that led him to go on and publish in 1864 his best-known work, Man and Nature: Physical Geography as Modified by Human Action.”
To give some reference to the insanity of the current debate around “Green House Gas” emissions everyone is arguing and or lying about what degree we can destabilise the atmosphere. Think about that lunacy for a second. The Cognitive dissonance is a mind fuck for me. Cognitive Dissonance and Outright Lies at the Edge of Extinction The reality is, there was no safe level of destabilisation of our atmosphere. It’s pitifully obvious in hindsight. The next nonsensical aspect of the predicament is the debate around how much of a “Carbon Budget” we have left. The short, sharp Scientific Reality is there is no carbon budget, clearly, we are in early-stage nonlinear runaway and the atmosphere has been destabilised well beyond the point of no return. Every additional gram of carbon released speeds up the already unfolding collapse now dominated and driven by a multitude of feedback loops documented here. Climate Change Summary
1989, quoting “Noel Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program, or UNEP.”
“He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control.” You’ll note that the rogues at the UN are still saying the same thing 33 years later! The 1989 Associated Press article warning of the phenomenon, titled “U.N. Predicts Disaster if Global Warming Not Checked,”
There has been much debate about the time lag between when emissions are dumped into the atmosphere and when we feel the full effects. Warming from Methane is, to all intents and purposes, effective immediately after it is vomited into the atmosphere, hence some of the shocking heat we are currently witnessing in the Northern Hemisphere.
Abstract “The stability of widespread methane hydrates in shallow subsurface sediments of the marine continental margins is sensitive to temperature increases experienced by upper intermediate waters. Destabilization of methane hydrates and ensuing release of methane would produce climatic feedbacks amplifying and accelerating global warming. Hence, improved assessment of ongoing intermediate water warming is crucially important, especially that resulting from a weakening of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).”
Carbon on the other hand can take up to centuries to manifest depending on the scale of the pulse. As the Northern Hemisphere’s forest’s burn huge quantities of carbon are released in very short time frames.
The above peer reviewed paper debunks the Liar Michael E Mann who recently said for a dumbed down US audience that “If we stop emissions now warming will stop”. 1)That’s a blatant lie and 2) How, pray tell, do we Stop Emissions Now when every single thing we do in industrial civilisation requires fossil fuels.
Anyone paying attention to the rapidity of the changes we are witnessing can see non-linearity unfolding in the chaos we are witnessing daily now. The Rate of Change is the critical issue to remember as we chronicle the great unravelling. “If you think long-term exponential growth is interesting and disruptive, there’s another kind of growth that is even more curious and potentially disruptive. That is faster-than-exponential (superexponential) growth. Unlike exponential growth, where the curve looks the same at every point, superexponential growth has one or more “knees” in the curve, places where growth suddenly switches from a slower to an even faster (or sometimes slower) exponential mode.” Superexponential Growth (J-curves) Hat tip to Kevin Lister, author of “The Vortex of Violence: and why we are losing the war on climate change” who taught me about Super Exponential change. Kevin Lister can be followed on Twitter at @kevsclimatecol
I’m not saying that we are witnessing Super Exponential Growth, yet, but anyone following the Precautionary Principle is forced to consider it. Peter Wadhams and others have pointed out that the Feedback Loops are multiplicative. That’s the pathway to Super Exponential changes.
Have your say in the comments section below. I’ll add additional data to the comments as they come to hand. “I say to my soul, be patient and wait without hope, for to hope is to hope for the wrong thing” TS Elliot Good luck everyone, we sure are going to need it.
“On 4 August 2021, I participated in an online discussion with Bing Professor Emeritus at Stanford University Dr. Paul Ehrlich, Kevin Hester, Pauline Panagiotou Schneider, and Drs. Beril Sirmacek and William Kallfelz. The accompanying music was created by Dr. Sirmacek.” Intro courtesy of Professor Guy McPherson
The Likely Bunch
“Today’s view of normality is possible because everyday thinking about human history largely ignores its first 300,000 years and does not recognize how extremely abnormal the last few centuries have been, roughly just one-thousandth of the history of physically modern Homo sapiens. Knowing how genetic and cultural evolution over millennia shaped us helps explain today’s human predicament, how hard that predicament is to deal with, and underlines how abnormal human life is in the twenty-first century.” Paul mentioned his and Anne’s latest paper which is embedded following; New Paper by Paul and Anne Ehrlich: Returning to “Normal”? Evolutionary Roots of the Human Prospect.
In the interview I mentioned that French nuclear reactors were having to shut down because the intake water to the cooling systems was too hot. So much for nuclear energy playing a part in powering the system to replace fossil fuels. “Power plants halt temporarily as record-breaking temperatures sweep across Europe”‘ Heatwave forces France to shut down four nuclear reactors“
Guy and I have had three previous discussions with Paul about the ongoing “Annihilation of Nature“.
William mentioned the seminal work of Professor Albert Bartlett on humans inability to truly understand the Exponential Function. As we watch all of our latest graphs showing an exponential trajectory, the so called “Hockey Stick” that Michael E Mann can no longer see ,it’s imperative to understand how quickly what’s left of climate stability will collapse; Arithmetic, Population and Energy – a talk by Al Bartlett
“We assessed evidence of collapse in 19 ecosystems (both terrestrial and marine) along a 58° latitudinal gradient for which major signals of change have been reported.” Combating ecosystem collapse from the tropics to the Antarctic A better title would have been “We aren’t Combatting Ecosystem Collapse from the Tropics to the Antarctic” Click on the link above for the 19 ecosystems that are in collapse now. Below are other links to additional evidence of the unfolding catastrophe.
“Little blue penguins — a flightless bird native to New Zealand and the world’s smallest penguin species — have been washing up dead on the country’s beaches, in what experts say are more frequent mass die-offs amid changing climate patterns.” Hundreds of dead penguins are washing up on New Zealand beaches
“Pataua smelled “like death” on Saturday after thousands of dead and dying pipi were blanketed across a shellfish gathering hotspot.”
“A Whangārei Heads resident broke the news online, saying Pataua’s pipi beds were in jeopardy.”
“[…]millions of pipi in every size dead the place smells like death [sic],” they wrote.”
“Coastal darkening, an environmental threat researchers are only beginning to study, is found to dramatically reduce the productivity of kelp.”
“In New Zealand’s Hauraki Gulf, waves crash against cliffs and pull dirt into the ocean, while boats and storms stir up silt from the seafloor. Rivers carry fertilizer from the mainland that causes light-blocking algal blooms, which mingle with pollution from nearby Auckland. Together, they cloud the coastal ocean, depriving organisms living deeper in the water column of their main source of energy—sunlight.”
Jim discusses the Hauraki Gulf where I live and have been diving in for 4 decades. I can verify that our kelp beds have collapsed and have been replaced by ‘Kina Barons’.
“It appears scientists’ fears about the mass bleaching of sea sponges in Fiordland have been confirmed, with it likely the largest event of its type anywhere in the world.” “And there is emerging evidence that an ongoing marine heatwave is also causing damage in Hauraki Gulf.” Scientists fear mass bleaching of Fiordland sea sponges the largest of its kind
Shaun Lee has done sterling work on the marine ecosystem in the Hauraki Gulf. His blog, with a free subscription option, can be accessed here
Until today I have resisted having a donate option at this blog but readers have asked me to include that option. All donations will go to funding my studies, furthering my goal to create a marine reserve in the Hauraki Gulf and hopefully having an insurance population of the Wetapunga translocated to Rakino Island and perhaps a few beers! Here’s my Paypal Account I thank you in anticipation.
The latest war in Europe forces us to address the issue of warmongering and the responses to it as it adds to our already perilous climate and extinction crises. “In 2017, the US military bought about 269,230 barrels of oil a day and emitted more than 25,000 kilotonnes of carbon dioxide by burning those fuels. The US Air Force purchased US$4.9 billion worth of fuel, and the navy US$2.8 billion, followed by the army at US$947m and the Marines at US$36m.”
The US military with 800 off shore military bases and the independent states response to the threat it poses is grinding the living planet into dust. The article below is a year old so the damage will be worse than stated. Add the emissions from the war in Ukraine to this already dire prognosis. “If the US military were a country, its fuel usage alone would make it the 47th largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, sitting between Peru and Portugal.” US military is a bigger polluter than as many as 140 countries – shrinking this war machine is a must
Abby Martin interviewed Professor Guy McPherson in 2013; Human Extinction by 2030 Guy wasn’t as aware of the Aerosol Masking Effect when this interview was recorded.
I have previously written about the inevitably of a nuclear war and subsequent nuclear winter. Included in the blog piece below is an analysis from Carl Sagan on the effects of a nuclear winter; The Inevitability of Nuclear War and Subsequent Nuclear Winter Our rewilding project of planting native trees on Rakino Island can be followed here; Rakino Island Nursery.
Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water. I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.
My Submission to the Ministry of the Environment
Kevin Hester, Dropping Anchor in an Exponential World
Kevin Hester 