“MORE than 300 million people in the US and Canada face the growing possibility of electricity shortages beginning as early as this year and continuing to 2028. In a recent report, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation – an international regulatory authority – projected that a majority of regions in the US and Canada will have insufficient electricity supply to reliably meet demand during extreme weather conditions. A few may even see interruptions under normal weather conditions.”
“Let’s return to that first sentence: “MORE than 300 million people in the US and Canada face the growing possibility of electricity shortages beginning as early as this year and continuing to 2028.” Wait, what? Electricity shortages will stop after 2028? How? Naturally, there is no mention of aerosol masking, the best-kept secret in climate science. Professor James E. Hansen has said and written many times that the aerosols will fall out of the atmosphere in about five days. According to a peer-reviewed, open-access paper published on 15 June 2021, the loss of aerosol masking will lead to a substantial increase in planetary warming: 55% globally, and 133% over land. Most of us live on land. As I have indicated previously in this space, we passed the 2 C Rubicon several months ago, according to governmental bodies representing a few countries. These governmental bodies were catching up to Andrew Y. Glikson, who wrote that Earth had surpassed the 2 C mark in his 9 October 2020 book, The Event Horizon. Furthermore, as nearly as I can tell, additional heating of Earth is a one-way street. Once the planet warms, cooling it is a rather challenging task.”
“According to a member of a think tank in Washington, D.C. as published in the paper by United Press International: The report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation found that North America’s peak demand – the highest amount of electricity needed in a given period – is rising faster than at any time in the past five years. The sharp increase also represents a reversal of a decades-long trend involving falling or flat growth in demand.”
All of the above written, slightly edited, and spoken work, is from my friend and colleague Professor Guy McPherson. Subscribers to Guy’s Sub stack posts can comment directly and read the whole embedded script at the following link: Science Snippets: Much of North America Faces Electricity Shortages this Year
After being intrigued by this latest analysis, the electrician in me decided to dive in deeper and have a closer look at the threat.
For the record, I had full electrical registration in Aotearoa NZ and have a High Voltage Switching and Protection Qualification from the London Electricity Board. I worked at the Sun Alliance Computer Centre located at Lennox Wood, West Sussex in 1987, only after working there for 6 months did, I find out the computer centre, one of Britian’s first “Intelligent Buildings”, what an oxymoron, was a backup computer installation for the British Ministry of Defence. All of the Group 4 security guards were supposedly ‘ex’ military but over beers, after long runs together, I realised I was working in the belly of the beast. The entire property was surrounded by a moat, and we had the same electronic gate system that was installed at the US Embassy in Beirut.
One day my pager bleeped, and a message came up saying: “Blocker discharge”. I made my way to the security gate and found a small car with its rear axle and suspension ripped off and hanging form the blade of the ‘blocker’ that was built into the road, anyone following a pre-approved car into the complex without swipe access discharged the blocker and ‘bam’. The poor young woman who was running late for work just had her car ripped in two.
As a result of obtaining that HV qualification, I worked on high voltage substations when rehabilitating the port of Beira in Mozambique in support of the front-line states resisting the Apartheid State to the south.
The point of all of the above Is I have some expertise in this field and feel reasonably qualified to comment.
Delving into the story I discovered:
“Musk also indicates that the growth of generative AI in computing in the form of chatbots has been rapid, allowing users to generate content and images within a moment’s notice. He added that the adoption and rapid growth of the technology in computing is increasing by a factor of ten every six months. “I’ve never seen any technology advance faster than this,” says Musk.”
Can anyone else spot the exponential function here?
“Elon Musk says we’re on the verge of the biggest technology revolution with AI, but there won’t be enough power by 2025.
To my knowledge the energy required to power AI has not been fully incorporated into the paper above that Guy quotes so, as always, it’s worse than previously thought.
Elon Musk Predicts AGI, Self-driving, Unlimited Energy, Robots Coming SOON
Readers of this blog will know I have a long-standing involvement in the anti-nuclear movement. On that note, I’d like to specifically address this aspect of Guy’s blog piece: “As if those challenges are not bad enough, there is also the issue of nuclear facilities as one means of generating electricity. Nuclear power plants require grid-tied electricity to operate. What happens when the grid fails, even locally?”
“Vulnerability to extended power outages stemming from grid collapse triggered by terrorism, technological accident, cyber attack or geomagnetic storms is understood to mean the widest possible spectrum of immediate and downstream consequences for our nations critical infrastructure. Regrettably few realistic plans are in place for dealing with this risk especially as it pertains to three primary energy systems of strategic significance to the United States – nuclear power, chemical manufacturing and natural gas supplies. The author argues that greater sustained attention is needed to upgrade the resilience of these systems, foster greater sharing of remedies among them to offset the worst effects of grid collapse which exceeds 15 consecutive calendar days and build collective avenues of enhanced risk mitigation against such scenarios.”
From the ResearchGate paper: Grid Collapse Security, Stability and Vulnerability Issues: Impactful Issues Affecting Nuclear Power Plants, Chemical Plants and Natural Gas Supply Systems
Feel free to add your comments below and as always, I will update the comments section with additional information as it comes in, until the lights go out, pardon the pun.
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I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.
Kevin Hester 
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Exponential growth in use of electricity and a frail, aging grid. What could go wrong?
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Yesterday YouTube started putting in my recommended feed a man who did talks over 8 years ago telling people all this will happen. About the changes in atmospheric water due to climate change an also about shocks to utilities.
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Jeremy Rafkin is the man
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Hi Kevin,
Thanks so much for this. Yes, I’m also a subscriber to Guy’s feed.
And you have probably seen the Sid Smith talk https://youtu.be/5WPB2u8EzL8?feature=shared from 2019? I watched that again last night. He’s a mathematician by training and provides a “100K feet” perspective about energy availability and our inevitable consumption of all available resources.
So fascinating/sobering/horrifying/tragic to grapple with how little control we had over this entire trajectory.
Thanks again,
Nicola
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This showed up on Medium and I actually had two entire articles show up. Guess they were my ‘free’ ones to try to get me to subscribe at the start of the month. I cut them & pasted both to send to my retired biologist neighbor but forgot to copy the first one’s weblink. Both were on collapse.
So here is the link to the 2nd one which is…ummmm, rather dark but probably damned accurate knowing what we have discovered the other collapsed civilization of the last 9,000 year (all 21 of them):
View at Medium.com
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As for the ‘shortage’ of electricity, absolutely no doubt of that. And my solar batteries have all died and they are way too expensive to replace. I’m on the grid of the Columbia River dams but…with the kind of winter we’ve had (and Canada where the fires are still going from last year) I’m sure the water situation isn’t improving…
sealintheSelkirks
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Hi Kevin, Ironically enough Ontario is largely dependent on ‘renewable energy’ if you include nuclear power plants. Toronto is very near the Pickering plant, the oldest one in Canada, and it has just had its operating license extended well past its estimated lifetime. This is obviously the reason, but I was scared when I saw how close it really was to this city. Quebec now sells hydro to New York City. I wonder why they can’t sell it to Ontario; an arrangement had been bruited about for years but never seemed to jell. They still call electricity ‘hydro’ in Ontario since it all used to come from generators at Niagara Falls. Most of Quebec’s power is water generated.
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Hi Kevin,
This article from the GUARDIAN is chilling.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/02/ais-craving-for-data-is-matched-only-by-a-runaway-thirst-for-water-and-energy?utm_source=eml&utm_medium=emlf&utm_campaign=MK_SU_SOINewsletterv2Canvas&utm_term=Email_ROW&utm_content=variantA
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In response to Derek Baum’s piece…
In addition to growing food, learning to forage would be strongly advisable. We should have all been learning this stuff for years.
To get an idea of how people will react at prospect of “no food in stores”, reflect on Hurricane Katrina survivors: One was featured in a news clip, storming into a little shop asking for a loaf of bread, when there was none left, and then angrily turning down a bag of flour! Most of us will not do well. It will be worse than we can imagine.
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“Another problem with McKinsey’s and Goldman’s forecasts is their narrow focus. They largely ignore the feedback loops introduced by the new layers of complexity that AI will introduce into society.”
“For example, Elon Musk recently warned that AI and EVs (electric vehicles) will produce an electric power shortage by 2025.”
https://www.artberman.com/blog/technology-and-innovation-are-overrated-implications-for-ai/?fbclid=IwAR2UlhmagyIEitUzwj88WfBVWjMSuAEWFE4tGsk4YC5j3X8eJl5uj4JMIYw
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“New England could see resource adequacy troubles even with billions in investments: ISO-NE”
“Batteries make up 46% of ISO New England’s interconnection queue, but the grid operator said that as peak demand grows they may “struggle to recharge during the winter months.”
Fancy that!
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/electrification-extreme-weather-will-challenge-new-england-energy-resource-adequacy/710660/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue%3A%202024-03-19%20Utility%20Dive%20Newsletter%20%5Bissue%3A60198%5D&utm_term=Utility%20Dive&fbclid=IwAR234JvReLF8lTuBS9l_MgxS4EFr1BjzKcarY6nBLNy–oWiajlqUD64P_w
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Rethinking electricity grids. (youtube.com)
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What is the plan for an electric grid outage that lasts for months?
What is the plan for an electric grid outage that lasts for months? | Peak Everything, Overshoot, & Collapse (energyskeptic.com)
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“The relatively high probability of a nationwide grid collapse, which would lead to multiple nuclear disasters, emphasizes the need to expedite the transfer of spent fuel to dry cask storage.”
Spent nuclear fuel mismanagement poses a major threat to the United States. Here’s how. – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (thebulletin.org)
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Yep, all around us we are stewing in our own waste….
Landfills Bake the Planet Even More than We Thought
https://grist.org/science/us-landfills-emit-far-more-methane-than-previously-known/
and then there is this one:
Landfills in Washington and Oregon leaked ‘explosive’ levels of methane last year
https://grist.org/accountability/landfills-in-washington-and-oregon-leaked-explosive-levels-of-methane-last-year/
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sealintheSelkirks
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Another science snippet:
USFWS Proposes Plan To Kill Nearly A Half-Million Owls
https://weather.com/nature/wild-animals/video/usfws-proposes-plan-to-kill-nearly-a-half-million-owls
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Starvation has decimated gray whales off the Pacific Coast. Can the giants ever recover?
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-03-27/starvation-has-decimated-pacific-coast-gray-whales
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sealintheSelkirks
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The latest hard facts from Alice!
Tesla Semi trucks hauling corn chips
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It’s becoming clear that the aging US power grid won’t be able to support the surge in AI data centers and the electrification of the economy. In “The Next AI Trade,” we outlined investment opportunities for powering up America.
Sam Altman Powers Up America With Clean Energy Startup Investment | ZeroHedge
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Like everything right now, the cost of maintaining Maine’s power grid is going through the roof. The lines are old and the equipment is outdated which means they fail more often. That translates into higher bills for customers as utilities have to pass the costs on to us. Not to mention the recent 83% increase in the cost of supply of electricity and the 11.5% increase in the cost of delivery of that electricity for Mainers. Things are just getting expensive.
Read More: Why Have Power Outages Become Much More Common in Maine? | https://wcyy.com/why-have-power-outages-become-much-more-common-in-maine/?utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral
Why Have Power Outages Become Much More Common in Maine? (wcyy.com)
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“AI could drive a natural gas boom as power companies face surging electricity demand”
Fancy that:
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/05/ai-could-drive-natural-gas-boom-as-utilities-face-surging-electric-demand.html?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR2paQUZ2jv4yvg-t_BiTxCNdg7zaYT45JzZOsfPdPwp9iJGpp6jl9TvJRs_aem_AWHCaJcy5uIJKHHQwM3dJsM_xAGvN-wWffJkFKxdA8Whs57DpPHiei7ddr0vPFwq220R-ENEzyNgQckBo0Tyr6iZ
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Great stuff that ‘natural’ gas, eh?
Landmark Study Reveals Gas Stove Emissions Boost Childhood Asthma
https://popularresistance.org/landmark-study-reveals-gas-stove-emissions-boost-childhood-asthma-rates-adult-deaths/
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sealintheSelkirks
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“To meet that target, the country needs to more than double regional transmission capacity and expand interregional transmission capacity more than fivefold, a U.S. Department of Energy study said in November.”
Well, we know that won’t happen!
US overhauls electric grid to make way for more renewables | Reuters
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Oh hell no. Here in the US it’ll just be more brown-out due to building more of those fucking ‘internet cloud’ monstrosities that are already a main source of electricity over-use! Monsters like the one in Draper Utah is using up millions of gallons of drinking water, too, for that matter.
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And here’s a quick peek at how tornadoes in the US are not only increasing and getting stronger, but are shifting east towards far more populated areas of the US than the traditional grain-belt ‘Tornado Alley’ it’s always been:
547 between Jan & April this year? Holy fuck because MAY has always been the worst month for the damned things:
Something weird is happening with tornadoes
Tornado season is changing. That could have major consequences.
https://www.vox.com/climate/24155885/tornado-season-twister-clustering
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Funny how nobody seems to be ‘sure’ it’s caused by climate destabilization but everything they are blaming this on is directly climate related!!!
Wouldn’t want to piss of the dumbass right-wing Southern voting blocks who think shooting Clorox Bleach and drinking horse de-wormer will cure Covid and think Global Warming is just a leftie hoax, ya know?
So far 7 $1billion dollar+ disasters in the US this year. And May is the worse month for twisters, and we’re just waiting for hurricane season to start next month.
Still no word on the Category 6 designation for hurricanes yet.
sealintheSelkirks
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Latest hurricane forecast, and the Atlantic Ocean has off-the-charts heat cooking it still so…it’s likely going to be real bad. The breakdown continues:
https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/video/weather-company-hurricane-season-forecast-increases
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sealintheSelkirks
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Last year was the hottest summer worldwide in the last 2,000 years? How come this isn’t ‘common’ knowledge?
Scientists Reconstructed Summer Temps Dating Back Centuries
https://weather.com/news/climate/video/scientists-reconstructed-summer-temps-dating-back-centuries
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Houston Texas Mayor talks about somehow ‘preparing’ for obvious increase of storms after what just hit Houston Texas yesterday, and even mentioned “Global Warming!”
To hear that actually shocked me a bit as it’s always the bullshit ‘climate change’ equivalency comparing changing a baby diaper to something like this. A windstorm being compared to Hurricane Ike’s damage citywide, that’s how strong it was. And it WASN’T a hurricane! But 100mph+ winds roaring through the high rise office buildings raining blown-out windows from way up high covering the streets is a quite scary scenario, ya know?
Ramping up quick, Kevin. How is the insurance companies going to deal with this kind of shit? Answer: they won’t, they can’t. Just continue to cancel policies everywhere.
Mayor John Whitmire talks Houston’s deadly weather
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sealintheSelkirks
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Whoops! Looks like this is going to be worse since, without power, the coming temperature is expected to jump over 32’C/90’F next week.
Double Disaster Potentially Brewing In Houston, Where Power Outages Could Linger For Weeks
https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2024-05-16-houston-severe-weather-tornado-rain
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No power. That means no water flowing in pipes for drinking. OR flushing toilets. No refrigeration for food, no traffic lights, no gas pumps working, no hospitals except for whatever back-up they have..and there won’t be any gas/diesel to run generators for long because it takes electricity to run the gas pumps.
What, NO CELL PHONES? NO TV? The youth are going to freak the hell out!!!
And possibly for weeks in some areas. Those freaking giant transmission towers pictures are incredibly twisted, aren’t they? Destroyed by wind!
Just as Governor MAGA redneck Racist pardons a white guy who murdered a BLM protester three years ago and effectively ends Trial By Jury in that state, this happens! Coincidence? This could (almost) turn me into a believer because, in their way of thinking, god is really pissed at Fascist Texas and Texans who are Racist Fascists…but a whole lot of other people who are much better people are certainly going to…suffer a little discomfort, eh? Weeks they said?
And Texas decided years ago fuck the federal government (except for subsidies and hurricane relief and, you know, stuff like that). Hence they did NOT want to be connected to the US grid so they opted out. How’s that gonna work? Like it did a couple of years ago when Texas had that big freeze? At least you could burn your furniture for heat, yes?
Wait until the grid goes down for good.
sealintheSelkirks
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Venezuela is the first country to lose ALL of it’s glaciers? And they used to have ski lifts and competitions in the 1950s & 60s? I did know of a couple ski areas farther south in South America whose glaciers had melted off recently, too. They also no longer have enough snowfall to open. But right on the Equator like this had functioning ski areas just 60 years ago?
https://medium.com/the-new-climate/venezuela-once-had-skiing-competitions-now-its-the-first-country-to-lose-all-its-glaciers-3ab88885a6e3
My question is how many rivers that sourced from those glaciers have disappeared, dried up?
https://ground.news/article/a-thermal-cover-at-16-500-feet-maduros-strategy-to-save-the-last-glacier-in-venezuela
Like what’s happening across the rest of the world’s glaciers. The US Glacier National Park is shrinking down quickly, too, with the average loss since the 1960s in the 40% range. The worst have lost 80%. And it’s way far north of the Equator! No wonder the equatorial glaciers have disappeared.
Just a science tidbit I guess, eh?
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But not for the State of Florida!
DeSantis says he’s ‘restoring sanity’ by erasing climate change from Florida laws
While Floridians suffered through record heat, DeSantis signed legislation keeping “windmills off our beaches.”
https://grist.org/politics/desantis-signs-florida-law-removing-climate-change/
What a fucking moron. The US is run by morons, Kevin. it’s disgusting how stupid these people are.
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But, in a way, I agree. Let’s erase the term ‘climate change’ completely and replace it with more appropriate wording…such as Climate Collapse, Climate De-stabilization, Climate Chaos, Climate Crisis, Climate Emergency. Invented by Wbush’s little asshole propagandist Frank Luntz, I think would be a good idea to shift to something far more descriptive and alarming!
sealintheSelkirks
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More on Houston Texas that is now being called a ‘Derecho.’ Wet Bulb temperatures are hitting 37’C! And the ‘skeeters…
Sweltering Heat, Falling Glass: Houston’s Storm Recovery
https://weather.com/storms/severe/video/sweltering-heat-falling-glass-houstons-storm-recovery
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Gee, and all I had yesterday was a massive T-storm dropping huge bolts out the sky that started the first fire of the year (on my ridgeline). about 1.5 miles south and above me. That’s…upwind of me in the daytime. NOT a good place to see smoke!
A friend driving by down on the 2-lane hwy rang me up and told me, I went down with binocs and yep there sure was smoke swirling up from where a bolt stung in a patch of shrubs and scrub trees. Couldn’t see it from here or down my gravel road, but very visible from the valley with glass on it. Called it in immediately. They sent a crew. Bet I wasn’t the only person calling spot fires in yesterday.
But at least I don’t have any glass falling from a hundred feet, eh? I wonder how deep a hole a piece would make in your head? Small favors!
sealintheSelkirks
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Here is a consequence of Global Warming nobody thought about:
Severe Air Turbulence Launches Passengers at the Ceiling
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uak-Zm4qhBk
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And they tie it directly to “climate Change that makes jet streams less stable and windstreams faster.”
Another surprise result of a hotter world.
sealintheSelkirks
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Ummm, hold onto your butts? Wow, that’s so scientific-sounding, isn’t it?
By the way, the storm season starts in two weeks. But somehow I don’t think the tornado season is going to lessen anytime soon.
The Atlantic hurricane season begins soon—hold on to your butts One reputable forecast team predicts 33 named storms.
http://The Atlantic hurricane season begins soon—hold on to your butts One reputable forecast team predicts 33 named storms.
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I like this one comment (many are intelligent questions), and the one after it by equine_physics nails the consequences so well:
JohnDeL:
“Well, you do have to admit that there is nothing more natural than global temperatures rising after a bunch of greenhouse gasses have been dumped into the atmosphere.”
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And weirdly enough, Mann is doomer-ism-ing the coming hurricane season as he’s mentioned in this article. How odd is that? But then he seems to interject himself into every discussion he can. What a lime-light guy! I wonder if he’s got a bunker there in Pennsylvania? Tornado tracks are actually moving east, bigger area now and aiming for more densely populated metro areas.
Uh-oh.
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I really need to dump these two low-value double-lot properties in the Avon Parks area of south-central Florida that I inherited years ago. Not worth much but I have the highest offer ever on one for about half of what they are listed for by the realty company that’s had them listed for years. Maybe a counter-offer might be in order to include buying both properties together at a slightly higher price for each than offered for the one?
I’m not much good at this real estate stuff at all.
sealintheSelkirks
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Side effects continue, from Covid hammering the Brit economy which is pretty much crashed, too, where everybody is getting poorer except the filthy rich. Just like what’s happening in the US.
British pubs struggle to survive as drinkers stay home
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6moazPDWz0
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Warnings to expect more airplane turbulence as the atmosphere continues to warm:
https://www.thrillist.com/news/nation/airplane-turbulence-getting-worse-how-to-stay-safe?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us
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NOAA Predicts ‘Extraordinary’ Atlantic Hurricane Season as Ocean Temperatures Soar
“The fun-filled summer season has increasingly become a time of dread for the dangers that await,” said one climate scientist.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/hurricane-season-2024
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And so far, on this ‘Memorial Day’ weekend, the continuing daily tornado outbreaks are just smashing through towns in multiple Midwest states. I’ve followed a little of it, but realize that since last year’s start to the ‘Nado Season’ we haven’t had a single month that DIDN’T have a tornado hit somewhere. The youtube tornado weather sites have been screaming and I’ve been seeing a dozen monster cyclones spinning at the same time in numerous states from Texas to the Canadian Border.
The US sites don’t talk about the tornadoes in Canada but they are happening, too.
Tornado Season is now all year long.
sealintheSelkirks
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US seeing rise in climate-related power outages, report says
This article is more than 1 month old
High winds, rains, winter storms and tropical cyclones accounted for 80% of power interruptions over the last 20 years
US seeing rise in climate-related power outages, report says | US news | The Guardian
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Well, DUH!
Methinks this information is a few years behind, at least up here on the Canadian Border. As a matter of fact I would have to add an ‘s’ on the end of the word month because that’s reality in these mountains; extra MONTHS of heat. But hey, they are at least trying to catch up to reality:
Climate Change Blamed For An Extra Month Of Extreme Heat
https://weather.com/news/climate/video/climate-change-blamed-for-an-extra-month-of-extreme-heat
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Just a snippet!
sealintheSelkirks
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Absolutely way worse in other parts of the world. Another weather snippet:
https://weather.com/news/climate/video/climate-change-blamed-for-an-extra-month-of-extreme-heat
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Raining a bit here, expecting another ‘atmospheric river’ to hit by Monday but then heavy heat will also hit this month.
sealintheSelkirks
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Severe thunderstorms pummel Texas causing widespread power outages
Hurricane-force winds have left nearly 650,000 buildings in the greater Dallas area without electricity
Severe thunderstorms pummel Texas causing widespread power outages | Extreme weather | The Guardian
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Yeah, I have a couple, former Kenpo students, that live in Ft. Worth where he’s a Associate prof and she’s a math teacher in a Catholic school. 100mph hour cd-sized hail stones are just going right through roofs…
They are getting very nervous about the latest hurricane threats, as well they should be! It’s going to be really bad this year is the best estimate…
sealintheSelkirks
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It’s not even summer in the North yet.
48 C in Mexico: What happens when extreme heat hits? | About That
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPD3uxtLHcc
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What’s behind recent extreme heat events and record high temperatures
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqtmxmISDz4
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sealintheSelkirks
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Abstract
“The recent concurrence of electrical grid failure events in time with extreme temperatures is compounding the population health risks of extreme weather episodes. Here, we combine simulated heat exposure data during historical heat wave events in three large U.S. cities to assess the degree to which heat-related mortality and morbidity change in response to a concurrent electrical grid failure event.”
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.2c09588?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR1935v39p8jnaTMxqAPEE5_KakbWg3co_8Qxmd2U2elZeA3Szo_tJG_d88_aem_ARHBQWaYIvlwRc1ie1TcTlmtoz9_1Jds9Yy7GACIg1Wl-wymubOKRgYYwjo2OPM0hgK3wuOfwcdrN5dftJAq5WGE
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“Wait, what? Electricity shortages will stop after 2028? How?”
I think you misunderstand the context.
The initial statement mentioned “the growing possibility of electricity shortages… continuing to 2028.”
After 2028, electricity shortages will no longer be a “possibility.”
They will be a certainty.
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“The perceptions of low probability events (floods, hurricanes, droughts) which then translates into overall climate change risk; and so our perceptions of climate change risk are being cleverly manipulated by propagandists. In spite of the recent apocalyptic rhetoric, the climate crisis isn’t what it used to be.”
2024 Annual GWPF Lecture – Judith Curry – Climate Uncertainty and Risk
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I feel so much better now that I’m going to run right out and buy (on credit of course) a giant diesel 4×4 monster truck like the MAGA crowd drives and go ‘blow coal’ on any wimpy bicyclists I run across. Hell, maybe I’ll even run a few over like that guy in Texas! That’ll show them enviro-terrorist freaks!
Methinks this woman really needs to get out more, away from her air-conditioned ivory tower to experience what the rest of us are dealing with.
sealintheSelkirks
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Note: the previous post today isn’t showing me the youtube link, just some weird barista throwing coffee at somebody! Hopefully it will show up because the Curry lecture shows the disconnect…maybe it’s my computer doing weird crap that I don’t know how to fix? I certainly am not computer literate….
The Curry link probably needed to go on Rogue’s Gallery but I don’t know where that thread is located.
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This below is a short 40 second vid clip on ‘extra’ heat days in the US since last year vs the rest of the world. Bluntly, this country hasn’t seen anything yet, has it?
Adding Extra Days Of Extreme Heat
https://weather.com/news/climate/video/climate-change-blamed-for-an-extra-month-of-extreme-heat
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sealintheSelkirks
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The Judy Curry lecture is NOT showing up on my computer, and I’ve restarted it so I don’t know what is wrong. Still that stupid barista thing…so I broke the web link apart so it doesn’t load wrong again: I put spaces between.
2024 Annual GWPF Lecture – Judith Curry – Climate Uncertainty and Risk
the web link: www. youtube /watch?v=iqs ZV8i301E
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More T-storms here today, again, 3 so far all with lightning and heavy deluge rain mixed with the first storm at 11am for 45 minutes. Second was a little lightning and lots of hard rain but no hail starting about 2pm for another less-than-an-hour. Third was came in at 5pm for another half hour blast and thunder in the distance to the north. Temp never went over 14’C…
But no wind at my elevation, or not much. Trees moving a little but the clouds up high were shredding apart, they looked ripped up and all screaming to the east. The last three years on 18June: 2020 was like what’s happening now when the three La Nina mode started for the next three years; cold rainy windy etc etc but then hotter later. 2021 it was 34’C plus that went to 49’C by 29June for a new county heat record. 2022 was the same except ‘only’ 46’C, and 2023 same but went to 40’C…
VERY strange stuff here in the north.
sealintheSelkirks
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“According to estimates from the International Energy Agency, the total electricity consumption by Google’s data centers could be twice those of 2022 levels — 1,000 terawatt hours — in 2026, which is roughly the electricity demand of Japan, The Guardian reported.”
The super organism has a mind of its own!
Over the last decade and more Guy and I have tried to convey the importance of non-linearity.
Hardly any important analogue, isn’t in runaway!
Courtesy of the late great Albert Barrett “The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race is Our Inability to Truly Understand the Exponential Function!”AI Energy Demand Drives Google’s Emissions Up 48% in Five Years – EcoWatch
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Houston, we have a problem, more so if the answer is Nuclear Fusion, that old canard!
AI’s Rapid Growth Threatens Energy Industry, Economy, and Climate | OilPrice.com
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Toronto Ontario Underwater! Historic Rainfall Triggers Flash Floods and Sweeps Away Cars
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Again it didn’t load. How strange but I think it’s because I’m posting too fast. My bad.
Toronto Ontario Underwater! Historic Rainfall Triggers Flash Floods and Sweeps Away Cars
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGWG1IgrPik
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The US media rarely even talks about what goes on in Canada. But it’s the entire continent being hit with freaking damn weather. Hurricane Beryl did NOT stop at the border though you’d get that impression.
The world is off the rails.
sealintheSelkirks
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Definitely a snippet about melting ice!
Days Growing Longer; What You Should Know
https://weather.com/news/climate/video/days-growing-slightly-longer-due-to-climate-change
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They are NOT baffled, just covering up:
Authorities Baffled By Recurrent Fish Die-Off
https://weather.com/science/environment/video/thousands-of-fish-found-mysteriously-dead-on-brazil-river
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This Is How Hot Summer Pavement Can Get
https://weather.com/safety/heat/video/heat-wave-deadly-surface-temperature-study
Shows just how fucked it is to live in cities full of concrete and asphalt and what ‘heat islands’ really mean, eh? Dirt just doesn’t get that hot though sometime individual rocks can absorb enough to feel like they are scorching!
I’ve been out of city living for a long time now…
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Pretty hot temps here, 108’F/43C yesterday and due to be warmer today. We’re not even in August yet! Been a lot of 110’F scorcher days here but at least the night temp is down into the low 60s/high 50s by 1am and the house windows are opened up to cool it down. Dogs are mostly inside during the day as is the cat, and the adopted husky ran off yesterday into the woods and was run back by a coyote (saw it out the window standing there looking at the house and her running out of the treeline).
Sure is hot, Kev, but at least no local fires blowing up. Something to the west since there have been fire bombers droning over towards the Columbia but I don’t know where they’re heading. Can’t smell/taste smoke but there is that orange glare to the sun at sunset so something is burning… A younger friend just got called out to a big burn-18,000 acres-over the border in Oregon. This is summer for the rest of our life, eh?
sealintheSelkirks
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Holy shit!
Earth’s hottest day ever recorded on Sunday
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-W_TRFvdSM
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Faster and faster we swirl around the toilet bowl as we flush the planet down.
I’ve had exactly 2 days this month that were below 100’F/37C. The first day of 100’F was in MARCH when it should have been snowing.
And north of me there are at least 50 fires burning in Canada, and below me in Eastern Oregon there are what are now being called MEGA-FIRES they are so big. And can’t forget Canada… I’ve got a friend on one of them outside of Hermiston.
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sealintheSelkirks
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Oops, correction. It’s ‘can’t forget California’ since I already mentioned Canada!
Heading towards 110’F again today or at least sometime by the weekend when it will be just oven-baking. Of course it could always be hotter, yes?
sealintheSelkirks
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Always a first time, ya know? The first verified extinction…
Eulogy for a cactus Sea level rise has eradicated a U.S. species for the first time. What’s next?
https://grist.org/science/eulogy-for-a-cactus-florida-key-largo/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us
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sealintheSelkirks
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Killing the ocean one piece at a time with Mississippi River agricultural runoff and toxic chemical plant poisons being dumped:
Ocean dead zone is way beyond average
https://weather.com/news/climate/video/gulf-of-mexicos-dead-zone-is-roughly-the-size-of-new-jersey
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And nothing is going to change this because somebody is making money off it.
Big sigh.
sealintheSelkirks
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Sure are a lot of ‘unprecedented’ weather events happening everywhere, Kevin. One after another, daily, hourly, across the globe simultaneously, over and over but they are all unconnected…unless one thinks climate destabilization. Otherwise they’re just ‘god’s will’ I guess, eh?
Alaska Glacial Flooding Called ‘Unprecedented’
https://weather.com/news/climate/video/alaska-ice-dam-flood-juneau-damage-0
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So far this area of mountains just east of the Columbia River have been very lucky this year. Holding my breath, ya know?
sealintheSelkirks
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So it’s all about the words we use? Don’t use ‘big words’ because the US is, as Trump so eloquently put it, full of ‘under-educated’ people who don’t have the language skills to understand? Yeah, I definitely get that because, in this rural mountain county I live in, it IS a reality. I have to be careful to not ‘talk down,’ ya know? And I’m just a surfer so that’s kind of scary!!!
But I do like reading that the awful term ‘climate change’ that was invented by Wbush flunky Frank Luntz (who somehow became a current ‘pundit’ on this election) to desensitize the more widely used term of ‘Global Warming’ are, according to this article, about equal in use. Personally I use the term ‘climate destabilization’ when talking to better educated people but Global Warming is my go-to overall term still.
https://www.fastcompany.com/91171723/americans-prefer-climate-change-global-warming-more-heated-terms-research-shows?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us
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Looking at another mid-90s F day it looks like. Getting warm out there at noon with fire smoke haze still in the sky. Another red moon and blazing orange-red sunsets last night tells me I’m still breathing in this crap even if the weather site isn’t giving any warnings. Big sigh. I guess this is normal, huh?
sealintheSelkirks
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