Non-Linearity in the Climate System

“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to truly understand the exponential function”, Albert Bartlett.

I see a lot of hand wringing over DJT describing our predicament as a ‘Hoax.’ The man child at the helm of the not very United States has correctly figured out that the only way to keep the numbers down, is not add them up!

Last century all the large NGOs used to warn of crossing “Tipping points,” This century it’s ‘verboten’ to mention the expression, as if not mentioning something makes it go away!
The cognitive dissonance is incredible!

“If you have been following my work for more than 15 minutes, you undoubtedly know that Earth is amid abrupt, irreversible climate change. As a result of anthropogenic climate change, Earth is experiencing the most rapid change in planetary history. This change is irreversible. This abrupt, irreversible change was published in two reports produced more than six years ago by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an organization designed-to-fail when it was created during the Ronald Reagan administration. Michael Oppenheimer, a Professor at Princeton University, concluded that the IPCC was designed to fail.”
The quote and video above with additional analysis, can be found at Professor McPherson’s Substack: The Rate of Environmental Change
Proof of the IPCC being a corporate construct can be found at It’s Time to Acknowledge the Spectacular Success of the IPCC. Warning, satire alert.
I’ll drop a video below of the late great Albert Bartlett describing the exponential function, it’s critical to understand where our trajectory is taking us.

11 Animals We Have Lost in the Last 50 Years

“The extinction of animal species is one of the most tragic consequences of human interference with nature. It not only means the irreversible loss of unique creatures but also the collapse of ecosystems whose stability depends on these species. Estimates suggest that in recent decades, around 500 to 1,000 documented.”
I’ve just discovered the incredible website above, courtesy of Doreen Fräßdorf.

Above is a great graphic explanation of how feedback loops interact.
Six years ago, Guy and I interviewed Professor Andrew Glikson on Tipping Points in the Earth Climate System. Dr Andrew Glikson returns to Nature Bats Last

“The planet would be a whole lot hotter if it weren’t for fecal pellets. Across the world’s oceans, tiny organisms known as phytoplankton harvest the sun’s energy, gobbling up carbon dioxide and releasing oxygen. They’re eaten by little animals called zooplankton, which poop out pellets that sink to the seafloor. What is essentially a giant toilet, then, flushes carbon at the surface into the depths, where it stays locked away from the atmosphere, thus keeping the amount of CO2 up there in check.”

“But as humans pump ever more carbon into the sky, relentlessly raising ocean temperatures, worrying signals are flashing that this commode could be changing in profound ways.”
The ocean is a carbon toilet. Marine heat waves are clogging it.
Sam Carana from the Arctic News Blog has warned of the possibility of a double “Blue Ocean Event” at both poles, according to the Scripps Institute a BOE in the Arctic will be the equivalent of 25 years of current emissions.

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Asalamu Alaikum, Amandla ngawhetu, Tiocfaidh ár lá.

Unknown's avatar

I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.

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Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Nature Bats Last, Professor Guy McPherson
5 comments on “Non-Linearity in the Climate System
  1. nancybeiman's avatar nancybeiman says:

    Thank you for the excellet post, Kevin. I received one ostensibly from you yesterday that was actually a Swedish business article.

    I think that the reason why climate change is being denied is the same reason that it was denied for decades. The rich people think that it will not affect them, and they don’t care if the rest of us are.

    Like

  2. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    To quote Albert Bartlett: “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to truly understand the exponential function.”

    ‘Extreme melting’ episodes are accelerating ice loss in the Arctic

    Like

  3. Adam's avatar Adam says:

    I wonder whether the most pernicious feedback loop, the one actually preventing us from escaping this mess, is the one between human nature and the society we’ve built. We construct a society that reflects certain parts of human nature, those parts become exaggerated and normalised, which pushes society further down that path. The endpoint is where we are now: hyper-individualist societies locked in competition with each other and with the natural world.

    People argue that capitalism is natural because humans are competitive by nature but everyone they know grew up inside a capitalist society. The reasoning is circular. If we could break the loop, maybe we could rebuild around different parts of human nature – cooperation, altruism. But we don’t really have that time.

    Like

  4. sealintheselkirks's avatar sealintheselkirks says:

    We are experiencing some pretty interesting weather right now:

    US forecasts blizzard, polar vortex, heat dome and atmospheric river all at once

    https://apnews.com/article/heat-dome-snow-blizzard-cold-polar-flooding-55e3baf6877e81ee1961aade3cb361c3?utm

    __

    And it promises to only get wilder and more surprising…forever. Ain’t that a bitch?

    sealintheSelkirks

    Liked by 1 person

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Kevin Hester

Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water.  I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.

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