‘Our climate change emergency is gaining momentum at a non linear, exponential pace, with the massive bleaching event unfolding on the Great Barrier Reef and the extraordinary fires burning in Alberta which have precipitated the evacuation of 80,000 + people from Fort McMurray, two of the latest ” Canary’s in the coal mine”.
There are no shortage of indicators that we have entered the dangerous phase of the great unraveling of our biosphere, when we are at approximately 1.5 degrees c above baseline tracking to and beyond the IPCC worst case scenario of 6C which incidentally will be unsurvivable for most if not all complex life on this planet. So much for 2C being the safe limit.
In the link below, renowned climate scientist Michael E Mann, the co author of the Hockey Stick Theory discusses the fires and the bleaching event on the GBR in incredibly measure tones,which I have personally dived extensively over an 800 mile sail after crossing the Coral sea and sailing down the reef from north of Cairns to Brisbane. I detect no hint of an emergency
It takes about 15 years for a reef to recover from a bleaching event but it also requires the symptoms to abate first. The primary drivers of this latest and third bleaching event in the last 100 yrs, all of which have happened in the last 8 yrs is carbonate saturation and warming waters.
Much of the blame has been attributed to the recent record El Nino which has undoubtedly been a factor but the overall causation is a combination of circumstances that are not going away and are in fact increasing.
I don’t casually criticise a scientist of Michael Mann’s calibre but as a yacht skipper I always default to the precautionary principle which is to hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
The tone of the delivery of this information in no way conveys a planetary emergency which we are patently witnessing unraveling before our very eyes.
Climate scientists tend to be specialists in their field which can involve a narrow depth of experience which leaves them unable to extrapolate the overall consequences of simple ( sic) ice melt and sea level rise.
Conservation biologist Professor Guy McPherson, who will be coming back to NZ again in November to discuss our predicament, who has been studying climate change for over three decades believes that the combination of rising temperatures driven by our crack like addiction to carbon is driving us to extinction alongside the other 150 to 200 species that are going extinct very day on our beleaguered planet.
Here is a recent podcast with Guy McPherson speaking about species extinction from the 21:40 minute mark here, ‘Rising Up With Sonali – May 4, 2016‘
Professor McPherson and myself believe we are in runaway abrupt climate change leading to near term human extinction in the not to distant future. Mike Mann doesn’t seem particularly worried.
As I wrote here on the Collapse Of The Oceanic Reef Systems, you can decide for yourselves whose right and prepare accordingly.
As Thom Hartman says: ‘Dr. Michael Mann, Earth System Science Center-Penn State University/Dire Predictions: Understanding Climate Change (2nd edition) joins Thom. The oceans are literally starving now. Plus the Fires in Canada – Is this a preview of what the future will look like if we don’t do something right now to stop climate change?‘ Further shared here, with video: ‘Dr. Michael Mann on Dying Oceans & Intense Fires‘.
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Many further thanks also to David Korn for his strategic vision and steady, ongoing technical support of both starting and helping me maintain my new website here.
The subservient and traitorous decision by the eco-terrorist New Zealand P.M. John Key to allow US military ships back into our waters threatens to destabilise an already unraveling marine food web with the deafening, blinding and murderous uptick in marine noise that will accompany the arrival of the most powerful and murderous military on the planet back into NZ waters, alongside the added threat that this poses considering the USA, terrorist Nation #1,is stalking Russia in Europe and China in the South China Sea.
The entire marine food web is unraveling as a result of anthropogenic global warming and the re-introduction of these vessels and the ecological sub-marine chaos they create can only put the 6th great extinction on steroids.
The most obvious victim of this flawed decision will be the endangered Hectors and Maui’s Dolphins but these are the charismatic species we relate to, there are millions of less photogenic species in terminal decline like the phyto-plankton that together with other marine species provide 70% of the planets oxygen.
Another omnicidal decision by the eco-terrorist in control of our nation at this crucial juncture of the 6th Great extinction.
You can follow more of Dahr Jamail’s work at Truthout, Paul Beckwith and Guy McPhersons parallel work at Nature Bats Last.
‘When it comes to getting its way with war-gaming in the Pacific Northwest, nobody is better at the concept of “distributed lethality” than the US Navy. In 2015, theNavy introduced this concept “that promised to add more fire power to all manner of Navy vessels and operate them in a way that would spread thin enemy defenses.” The Navy seems determined to move forward with planned military activities like increasing jet dogfighting, electromagnetic warfare training and other actions, regardless of how many animals it kills.‘ Article continues here: ‘Exclusive: Emails Reveal Navy’s Intent to Break Law, Threatening Endangered Wildlife‘.
I was asked to submit a story for a upcoming book about the life of Neil Finn which has been accepted.
The Finn brothers and I have been sailing together now for 36 yrs mostly just in spirit but a couple of times, at sea together. We grew up about 50 km’s from each other in central North Island communities, clan Finn in Te Awamutu, clan Hester in Matamata. Word was already spreading about “ Enz”, then Tim’s little brother joined the band and the legend grew. I first saw them play / perform at the Nambassa music festival at Waihi in January 1979 when I was 19, I’ve been seeing red ever since.
We were once at the Finn home in Parnel, Auckland doing some renovations and I was using a reciprocating saw, Neil liked the action and flexibility of the saw and asked if he could help, naturally I said sure. He starts attacking the wall we were demo’ing and was bouncing around on the end of the saw. I didn’t like what I ‘saw’ and took it from him saying “ I don’t need the wrath of a nation for being the guy who cut the fingers off our most beloved guitarist”, Neil wasn’t impressed but Sharon waltzed by laughing saying “Good idea”!
Remarkably that day we were all working and the radio started playing some of Neil’s music, we all started cheering and Sharon said what’s going on, I pointed out who was on the radio and she gave me that gorgeous cheeky grin and said “ didn’t notice” !!! lol, you have to admit, she’s made an excellent man of him and their obvious love for each other has given birth to some wonderful love songs and two extraordinary young men, carrying on the legacy.
In over 30 yrs of back packing and sailing to 50 + countries the music of Split Enz, Crowded house and Neil’s solo work have kept me company. In September 2000 I was sailing a yacht to Tonga and stopped at Minerva Reef which is 700mls north of NZ and 350mls south of Tonga. Whilst at the reef, the skipper of another yacht anchored there was attacked by a shark. Being a NZ Coastguard trained first aider, I drew the short straw to treat the victim whilst waiting for the NZ Navy ship Resolution to steam to our position to medevac the victim to Tonga.
We kept him alive for 30 hrs until the handover was complete and we sailed off from Minerva, towards a total lunar eclipse shattered from the experience. We steamed out through the entrance to the reef with “ Shark Attack “ blaring, classic Kiwi gallows humor.. Later that night the eclipse took place and we were lucky enough to have perfectly clear skies, cue “ Always take the weather with you”.
In August 2011 Neil’s tour manager called me and asked if I could organise a boat to get the band to the wharf in down town Auckland. It was suggested that we drop them all on Pier 3 leaving them a 200m walk on a public street to the Shed 7 entrance!! My reaction was you must be joking! Walk the two most famous Kiwi rock stars through a throng of euphoric, inebriated Kiwis enroute to the biggest event held in NZ for a decade, through an estimated 70,000 people?? My suggestion was that we use the adjoining NZ Customs wharf which would be behind security fences and would provide a safe and secure entrance to the gig.
We were told that because it was a secure customs area, access was impossible and we would have to use Pier 3 and make the most of it. The tour manager looked at me with a quizzical look and I replied, “ Sweet, on that basis, I quit. I’m not signing up for the role of the guy who Didn’t get the Finn Brothers to the biggest gig in NZ for a decade”. There was a stunned silence followed by me suggesting they contact the Minister of Customs.
The power of rugby and rock n roll prevailed and we were granted access via the customs wharf with the surreal experience of us all having to bring passports to gain entry into the gig!!!!! I kid you not, HMNZ Customs officers cleared us off the boat after a two mile sail from Westhaven Marina! Kiwi rock royalty? Incidentally there turned out to be between 100,000 and 200,000 people waiting for us, the sailors prudence paid off. Another Finn brothers gig climaxed with the beginning of the competition and NZ defeating Tonga 41-10. Team Finn 1 Her Majesty’s customs nil.
In 2009 Jeff Tweedy, Glenn Kotche, John Stirratt and Pat Sansone of Wilco, Scottish singer-songwriter KT Tunstall, and some other friends of Neil’s put the Seven Worlds Collide team back together and while they were here Neil rang me and mentioned that some of the ‘musos’ and family were keen to get out on the water for a sail.
I cajoled my friends Martin Gillman and Cedric Allan into providing the good ship “Woolly Jumper” for what turned out to be a blast around the harbour. We all met at Westhaven Marina on a blustery 25 knt, gusting 30 knts day. I said to Neil “ It will be a wild ride but the boat is 50ft, has done a Sydney to Hobart and she is up for it if you are?” Neil pointed at the boat and said weigh anchor.
We headed out into the wonderful Hauraki Gulf with the boat on her ear, gunnels in the water, Seven Worlds Collide out on the rail as shown in the attached photo. We ‘hurtled’ around the harbour with everyone having a spell on the wheel, lots of fun was had by all and they were all returned to the marina early in the evening wind – blown but elated. As they disembarked, they all looked like they had been through a washing machine and were now supposed to head to the studio to record. The last thing I said to Neil as they departed in the minivan was “ Sorry mate, I didn’t mean to wear them all out”. Cue laconic grin and the ‘Finnsters’ wink.
I heard from the studio 5 hrs later that they were all ‘going off’, elated by their day on the water, the rest is history .
Last year the NZ government in its infinite lack of wisdom, decided to start deep sea drilling for oil off the coast of NZ even though we all know that we must leave 80% of the existing fossil fuel that has already been discovered in the ground and methane hydrate deposits have been discovered off our coast, methane being 50 to 100 times worse than carbon and was the driver of the Permian extinction, they obviously have an extinction wish that will soon be granted to us all and most other species on the planet .
I was involved with Greenpeace and we organised a protest on the beach at Piha where Sharon and Neil have a ‘bach’, (holiday home) . We had our “ banners on the beach” action and after, I called into the house for a beer and lunch, when Sharon heard what we had been doing she must have let Neil know in New York where he was playing, because when I returned home, I found a post on my Facebook ‘wall’ from an American friend Jeanette Eastman, who has been involved with Neil and his bands ‘fan club’ for many years.
Neil had tweeted his thanks for us getting out on the beaches to stop this lunacy, the amazing power of social media. I have been campaigning against deep sea drilling alongside another of Sharon and Neil’s friends Lucy Lawless, aka “Zena, Warrior Princes” , warrior all right, two years ago she was arrested climbing onto an oil drilling ship in Taranaki and to our amazement arrived at Sharon and Neil’s 20th wedding anniversary 8 months pregnant in a bikini, with her husband Rob Tappert dressed as a cardinal!
The spirit of protest that won N.Z. women the vote first in the world, that made us the first country in the world to declare ourselves “ Nuclear free” continues with the help of these two ecologists as we enter what both the World Wildlife Fund and National Geographic are now calling the 6th great extinction ( 150 to 200 species go extinct now every day).
Two months ago I received a call from Elroy, Sharon and Neil’s son, Liam was getting married and a ‘stag do’ was arranged on the same boat used for the Rugby World Cup, who said ‘History Never Repeats’?
I’ll sign off with “ Always take the Weather with you”.
Great images of the melting permafrost with surprisingly no mention of the methane and carbon released as the permafrost melts. 20% of the land mass in the Northern Hemisphere is permafrost.
All of that CO2 and CH4 will soon be released into our warming atmosphere:
‘Frontier Scientists joins Jason Dobkowski at his research site on the shores of Wolverine Lake in Alaska’s remote North Slope. He’s studying thermokarst, the destabilized and shifted ground that appears where permafrost fails. Thermokarst on the shore of Wolverine Lake is on the move.’ Article continues here: ‘Thermokarst: Melting Permafrost at Wolverine Lake‘.
This is an excellent round up of a growing phenomenon of raging wild fires unleashed on the planet converting carbon sinks into carbon emitters that will never sequester carbon again.
It is important to note that we are at 1.5 C approximately above the 1870 baseline as we track to and beyond the IPCC worst case scenario of 6C. I believe there will be neither trees no humans on the planet after about 4C:
‘A raging Canadian wildfire grew explosively on Saturday as hot, dry winds pushed the blaze across the energy heartland of Alberta and smoke forced the shutdown of a major oil sands project.
‘The fire that has already prompted the evacuation of 88,000 people from the city of Fort McMurray was on its way to doubling in size on Saturday, the seventh day of what is expected to be the costliest natural disaster in Canada’s history.’ Article ‘Absolutely Vicious Canada Wildfire‘, continues here.
This data for me undoubtedly represents runaway abrupt climate change. We have now entered the exponential phase of this catastrophe and have drifted, leader-less into uncharted territory.
My hope is that in a year from now I will be proven wrong. If so I will be the happiest and most surprised follower of the great Boomer Warrior blog:
‘The Warmest February on Record:
‘Global warming is speeding up. Just released NASA data shows that February 2016 was the first month ever that global average temperatures passed the 1.5C mark. The previous record was January 2016 at 1.14C hotter than average. That was broken by the December 2015 record of 1.10C. We are entering a new phase of accelerated heating up. We are now in global warming overdrive.
Never before have average temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere breached the 2C mark. It’s likely the first time since the beginning of human civilization‘. Article continues here: ‘Global Warming on Speed‘.
“In March, the temperature deviation in on islands in the Barents Sea was 12C.” 12C anomaly. This is a catastrophic level of anomaly !!!!!!!!!
“In most of the country, the temperature rose between 3 and 5 degrees.” If people can’t see that we are in runaway, abrupt climate change, as shown here, you are not looking. As I shared, here: Exponential Runaway Warning:
‘On 1 May 2016, the “Ob Sea” [Novosibirsk Reservoir], close to Novosibirsk, was completely clear of ice. Go back even a few years and locals expected to see an ice cover on this vast man made reservoir on the 3,650 kilometre Ob River at the start of May. Yet pictures taken on Sunday show it to be completely clear.
Compare these with images taken in several years between 2010 and 2015 when ice was plainly visible. One local researcher – who drew this to our attention – said: “It is my own observation. I often go to the Ob Sea in early May and previously there was always ice there, at least ice floats, even when the spring was early. This time it is completely free of ice‘. Continues here: Also, ‘Novosibirsk Reservoir in Siberia is completely ice-free‘, speaks volumes.
Climate-exodus is expected in the Middle East and North Africa. There is zero chance of emissions being restricted to 2 degrees C and with the “Business as Usual” scenario we are looking at 4C with no allowance for forcing from methane from the melting permafrost and the ocean clathrates which could and probably will lead on to 6 and 8C.
The absolute certainty that this region will become uninhabitable in the near term also guarantees the outbreak of habitat wars.
All wars are resource wars and on a planet of diminishing resources and habitat this guarantees our dystopian future.
Brace for imminent impact:
‘The number of climate refugees could increase dramatically in future. Researchers of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and the Cyprus Institute in Nicosia have calculated that the Middle East and North Africa could become so hot that human habitability is compromised. The goal of limiting global warming to less than two degrees Celsius, agreed at the recent UN climate summit in Paris, will not be sufficient to prevent this scenario. The temperature during summer in the already very hot Middle East and North Africa will increase more than two times faster compared to the average global warming. This means that during hot days temperatures south of the Mediterranean will reach around 46 degrees Celsius (approximately 114 degrees Fahrenheit) by mid-century‘. … article continues, here:
Excellent tutorial on the ongoing Arctic unraveling from Paul Beckwith who you can find at PaulBeckwith.net with a chilling reference to the inevitable desperate geo-engineering possibilities.
“Syria’s two main waste-water treatment plants, for Aleppo and Damascus, are virtually destroyed, according to the ICRC which helps disinfect nearly 80 percent of the country’s water.”
Attacking the water supplies and infrastructure is a War Crime against the civilian populations of these war ravaged regions as they get hotter and our carbon crisis gets worse, clean water and electricity for keeping food fresh and aircon when we approach our wet bulb temperature are imperative.
Denying either of these to the civilian population including those in hospitals, the very young and the elderly and infirm is nothing short of a War Crime under the much ignored Geneva Conventions.
Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water. I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.
My Submission to the Ministry of the Environment
Kevin Hester, Dropping Anchor in an Exponential World
Kevin Hester 