The Insurance Industry, soon to be the first pillar of Capitalism to succumb to Abrupt Climate Change

“Climate change could punch a hole through the financial system by making 30-year home mortgages — the lifeblood of the American housing market — effectively unobtainable in entire regions across parts of the U.S.”
“Climate change could end mortgages as we know them”

“Natural disasters are being recorded more frequently than ever before. “Since 1970, the number of disasters worldwide has more than quadrupled to around 400 a year,” and “there are six times more hydrological events now than in 1980,” The 10 Most Costly Natural Disasters of the Century
“There is a logistical hurdle: when a catastrophe bond experiences a so-called loss event, the capital in the investment is suspended until the full cost of a disaster is pinned down. The phenomenon of “loss creep”, where initial estimates of a loss balloon months or even years after the event, has also spooked some investors. The cost of Typhoon Jebi in Japan last year rose from initial expectations of $6bn to $15bn.”
“Over two years, natural catastrophes caused a record $225bn of insured losses”.
Why climate change is the new 9/11 for insurance companies

“For the insurance industry, global warming has advanced from a future ecological challenge to a present financial shock. Together, total losses to the economy from natural catastrophes and “man-made disasters” reached $165 billion in 2018; that followed a 2017 that, at $350 billion, cost more than twice as much. As a result, according to the Swiss Re Institute, the company’s research arm, 2017 and 2018 were for insurers the most-expensive two-year period of such catastrophes on record, requiring them to fork over $219 billion globally in checks.”
Climate Change Is Hitting the Insurance Industry Hard

“Regulators are starting to worry about climate change.”
“Jenkins points out that the Bank of England’s Prudential Regulation Authority is leading the way on stress-testing insurers against the risk that the world misses its carbon reduction targets.”

“In such a scenario, insurers, especially in the U.S. where price increases are restricted by regulators, may find it increasingly unattractive to offer coverage,” he writes. “Greater lay-off of risk to reinsurers is one option. But more restrictive policies or wholesale withdrawal of cover are also possible. At some juncture underwriters will need to remove their blinkers and acknowledge that a world awash with worsening climate change risks is not necessarily just bad for the planet. It could be bad for the insurance industry too. A bit like 9/11.” Climate Change Tops List of World’s ‘Extreme Risks’

“Venice is on its knees,” said Brugnaro. “The damage will run into hundreds of millions of euros.” Flood, fire and plague: climate change blamed for disasters
“Last year, insurance payouts caused by climate-related events totaled $2.4 trillion worldwide.” Can Insurance Companies Weather The Storm? What Climate Change Means For The Industry

Clearly the cost of disasters is on the same Hockey Stick trajectory as our climate crisis yet “Business as Usual” carries on as if nothing has changed. All ponzi schemes eventually implode and this one will be no different except in scale. There is no previous analogue to remotely compare with the coming collapse.

I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Collapse, Insurance
190 comments on “The Insurance Industry, soon to be the first pillar of Capitalism to succumb to Abrupt Climate Change
  1. Kevin Hester says:

    Led by the deadly and costly Hurricane Ida and massive flooding in Europe, the world racked up $329 billion in economic losses linked to severe weather last year, and only 38% of that bill was covered by insurance.


    • sealintheselkirks says:

      You did read about the monster Super-cyclone that just slammed the Philippines, yes? Latest count was 1,500,000 homes destroyed. So, being a Catholic country without birth control we’re looking at what, 8 million homeless from one storm? Six kids or so, mom & dad, and they tend to live with relatives also. Maybe 10 million homeless then adding in the aunties and grandparents etc etc?

      It wasn’t as strong as Hainan a few years ago but a much wider storm path. I mean, Hainan was a Category 6 at 200mph when it hit the beach but it doesn’t seem like anybody ‘in charge’ wants to reflect reality by increasing the threat level by upping the numerical value.

      Somehow I don’t think those poor people had much insurance for their rickety-built homes. Maybe businesses did, or the wealthy, but for most poor people insurance just doesn’t exist.

      Imagine the damage of 200mph Category 6 like Hainan hitting Houston TX or Miami FL? Or anywhere else along the US Gulf & Eastern seaboard? That wake up call is going to be a doozy for the insurance industry. And it will only get worse.

      But when we remember what Mexico Beach Florida looked like after Hurricane Michael hit with 160mph winds a few years ago? Mostly piles of broken wood and debris! I read that one storm cost $25 billion, and it’s ‘looking to the future’ as they build RIGHT BY THE BEACH EDGE again dead on against the same beach road. Bigger buildings, too, looks like more apartment blocks going up in the latest photos, and the ads are all about ‘getting back to normal’ and ‘city on the mend’ and ‘mexico beach on the move’ as if it could never happen again. Nobody really wants to understand climate collapse. Of course not! It’s all about real estate profits!

      I started laughing when I bumped into this; Mexico Beach voted ‘most favorite Southern beach town…in Garden and Gun magazine. So do old ladies garden with .40 caliber Glocks strapped to their hips? Probably. After all it IS Florida and them white folk are always on the lookout for Those People coming to rob them.

      For some reason I just don’t feel the urge to go live there. Noticed in the recent pictures that there is a lot of open space where houses used to be crammed together in the before pics….


      Liked by 1 person

  2. sealintheselkirks says:

    How far will an insurance collapse go? Can it fall so hard that it will affect this side of what they do?

    Exposing the Massive Hypocrisy of International Insurance Companies


    Liked by 1 person

  3. Kevin Hester says:

    “What If I Can’t Insure My Home At All?”
    Insurance companies are leaving homeowners at the mercy of climate catastrophes they helped create.


  4. Kevin Hester says:

    Pooling risk to insure against natural disaster
    We have to pivot to a new insurance model for climate change before we go under, warns University of Queensland expert.


  5. Kevin Hester says:

    Pooling risk to insure against natural disaster
    We have to pivot to a new insurance model for climate change before we go under, warns University of Queensland expert.


  6. Kevin Hester says:

    “Megan Cusack, a barrister whose chambers were filled almost to the ceiling with water, said she did not have contents insurance.

    “You can’t get insurance for floods here, unless you want to spend A$20,000 [US14,500] a year.” She estimated the damage at A$100,000.

    Robin Gilmore, who owns the Civic Hotel, where floodwaters reached the second floor, estimated his losses at A$2.5mn. Local resident Max, 74, who had to be rescued from his front porch in waist-deep water, said he would have to raid his pension to pay for the damage. Neither had insurance.”


    • sealintheselkirks says:

      Kevin, there will be a point where there isn’t anywhere to retreat to except high ground. And who owns the high ground and will they let people onto their property? Probably not.

      This popped up Friday:

      Thoughts From a Drought-Stricken, Flooded Australia

      And it was 68F yesterday, 70F today. Oh my. At the end of March in the PacNorthWest.This sure doesn’t look good.

      While the US Southwest is getting hit again and the entire ‘weather event’ of last weeks 56 tornadoes is about to be repeated this week. Starting tomorrow as a matter of fact. I’m guessing their god is extremely pissed at those racist slave-state Trump voters? Is there a correlation between them and Oz because it seems they’re being taught some kind of lesson at the same time Down Under is…floods and tornadoes instead of Bomb Cyclones but really let us not be picky because the end results are very much the same aren’t they?

      Is this how the Rapture starts? Inquiring minds want to know!


      Liked by 1 person

  7. sealintheselkirks says:

    Florida is freaking out with Hurricane season on the way. So this article wouldn’t separate from the others that are all under the same link (WPEC in Florida) so I’m pasting it. It’s short but damned telling on what Big Insure is expecting…or knows! The politicians can’t do anything but try pasting more band-aids on the disappearing insurance carriers…


    Lawmakers press for special session on Florida’s property insurance crisis

    WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (WPEC) – Florida lawmakers are warning the clock is ticking for the state to address a growing property insurance crisis before the impending hurricane season.

    Lawmakers press for special session on Florida’s property insurance crisis (WPEC)
    Sen. Jeff Brandes, R-St. Petersburg, sent an email to fellow legislators Friday, polling them on whether or not they would return to Tallahassee and take up the property insurance issue.

    The legislature did not address property insurance during its 60-day regular legislative session that ended in early March.

    At least five insurance providers have pulled out of Florida, leaving thousands to find new coverage. The companies that remain, including the state-backed Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, are drastically raising their rates, pricing many out of their policies.
    Nancy Hultman, a Citizen’s customer in Boca Raton, recently told WPEC she’s been forced to move out of Florida because of the high cost of her policy.

    “It’s just ridiculous. you shouldn’t be in a forced situation by an insurance company,” she said.

    WPEC contacted every lawmaker representing Palm Beach County and some from the Treasure Coast, asking if they would support a special session to address property insurance.

    Of the lawmakers WPEC contacted, nine responded. Nearly every single Democrat who responded said they would support a special session held as soon as possible.
    Rep, Matt Willhite, D-Wellington, Ranking Member of the Insurance and Banking Subcommittee, said he would also be in favor of a special session if lawmakers had a clear legislative plan to address the property insurance issue. He said, so far, he has not seen such a plan from his colleagues.

    Two Republicans responded: Rep. John Snyder, R-Stuart, and Rep. Rick Roth, R-West Palm Beach. Both said they wanted to tackle property insurance, with Snyder saying he would support a special session if the governor called for one.

    Some lawmakers have also signaled they expect to tackle the property insurance issue after the November election, which would come just before the end of hurricane season.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. sealintheselkirks says:

    This is gonna hurt. From yesterday…



  9. Kevin Hester says:

    “Insurance companies have started to change their policies to reflect the growing risk posed by these events.

    “Tower last year became New Zealand’s first insurance company to introduce [flood risk rating], so they’ve essentially modelling risk right across the country – especially in terms of flooding,” says Morton.

    He adds that it’s likely that we will see more changes in insurance policies in the coming years as these companies look to prepare for the growing regularity of extreme weather events.”


  10. Kevin Hester says:

    Here’s the Kiwi corporate media blabbering along about sea level rise but there are some interesting observations about Insurance


    • sealintheselkirks says:

      Just a little more blabbering but this time from suburbia and real estate moguls… Not only will the insurance run out but so is the water…and there isn’t any ‘insuring’ that! What does one do when you are in this situation which is spreading all across the globe turning into infighting between people/communities/states/countries because when the water runs out so do you.

      The Water Wars Come to the Suburbs

      A community near Scottsdale, Arizona, is running out of water. Amid the finger-pointing, the real question is: how many developments will be next?

      This is a foretelling I think. When MSM magazines actually publish an article like this do they realize that they are showing a snapshot what it coming for everybody?

      I don’t think so. It’s all about connecting the worldwide dots and different sciences into one large bundle and that’s NOT what they are inclined to do. So they break it up and just throw pieces out because ‘if it bleeds it leads’ but not when it’s the entire fucking planet. That would not be good for business profits, and would scare their readers and piss off their backers. Have to keep that income coming in to the last second this civilization exists I guess.

      I don’t understand that kind of thinking. The Ancient Greeks has a word for total addiction to greed and wealth but I can’t remember it. Read about it once, though. They knew 4000 years ago how this sickness takes over people’s minds to the exclusion of everything else.

      It’s worse that being a heroin addict because it devastates far more lives. So these who want to keep making money building in the Northern Sonora Desert as the Colorado River water quite literally runs out…

      Somehow I’m betting the insurance companies carrying the policies of these dams/power plants are already reviewing what they are liable for…


      Liked by 1 person

  11. Kevin Hester says:

    “Several other insurance companies have become insolvent recently. Gulfstream became insolvent Aug. 27, 2021, affecting 32,324 policies; Avatar Insurance became insolvent April 13, affecting 36,569 policies; Lighthouse became insolvent May 28, affecting 27,244 policies; FedNat Insurance was insolvent as of June 29, affecting 65,442 policies; and Southern Fidelity became insolvent as of June 15 with 78,000 policies affected, according to data from Citizens Property Insurance Corp.”


  12. Kevin Hester says:

    “That leaves 1.3 million households at ground zero without federal flood coverage.”


  13. I wrote a reply (usual large reply!), added links of course, and then tapped ‘post comment’ and did the required sign-in and it has NOT posted in the last couple of days. And no I didn’t happen to save it before I tried to post it.

    My mistake as this isn’t the first time something I’ve written has disappeared going to your website and I don’t think it’s you doing it. Something is not working with this WordPress algorithm or it is deleting because it doesn’t ‘like’ something? Just who owns this by the way? What kind of censoring might be going on? Some corporate neoliberal right wing asshole take the site over? Probably…and why was Sheila in Oregon getting blocked so much by WordPress? Hmmmm. I’m going to save this one to post elsewhere just in case…


    Liked by 1 person

  14. Kevin Hester says:

    “Numerous insurance companies in Florida have closed their doors in recent years in a slow-moving collapse for the industry, forcing rates to spike and property owners to turn to the state-owned insurer of last resort”.

    “Florida’s property insurance market was the most volatile in the U.S. before Hurricane Ian formed and will most likely become even more unstable in the wake of the storm,” said Mark Friedlander, a director at Insurance Information Institute in Florida.”


    • Ya think? Nobody is going to be able to afford the rate hikes of the few still in business. And not for very long since there isn’t anywhere safe in Florida anymore. Bank mortgage loans are absolutely tied to the insurance industry, Siamese twins so to speak, and it’s all about to literally go ‘under water.’ Ahahahahahahaha! I made a pun!

      FUCK ME, though, because I inherited two pieces of property in Highland County, Florida from my aunt. Double lots in two different places in a housing development in Avon Lakes in the middle of lower Florida. Where Ian just went over as a matter of fact. Wonder how the houses and double wides fared, ya know, the neighbors who built there? I’ve been trying to sell them for years and still am paying property taxes on the useless things (cheap as they are undeveloped).

      They may have blown away or been flooded by Ian since neither are actually High Lands as Florida is pretty much just a fucking disease-ridden swampy place full of assholes that I wouldn’t every want to live around. Hence this article for your head-shaking enjoyment!

      5 year-old & 14 year-old shot. A story of responsible gun owning fathers in Florida.
      I really wish somebody would buy these fucking lots. I’ll certainly NEVER even go see them.


      Liked by 1 person

  15. Kevin Hester says:

    “World rocked by 29 billion-dollar weather disasters in 2022
    Florida’s Hurricane Ian, a $20 billion drought and heat wave in Europe, and deadly floods in Pakistan are among the catastrophes so far this year.”


  16. Kevin Hester says:

    “Insured losses from global natural disaster events were estimated at $39 billion during the first half of 2022, 18% higher than the 21st century average of $33 billion, driven by persistent severe convective storm (SCS) events, according to Aon in its latest catastrophe report.”


  17. Kevin Hester says:

    “At least 29 billion-dollar weather disasters have rocked the planet so far in 2022, said insurance broker Aon in its quarterly disaster report issued October 18. Heat waves in Europe killed more than 16,000 people and nearly 1,700 died as a result of flooding in Pakistan.”


    • “We thought we had a bit of time but I think things are unraveling fairly quickly now.”

      “We’re now seeing that the system is not able to cope with climate change.”

      … maybe things are much worse than we would have predicted in certain places.”

      And you know what? It’s going to get a LOT worse and there is no way anybody can be ‘ready’ for it because nobody has really wanted to listen to those ‘alarmist’ scientists that have been hollering for 40 years… That “bit of time” was always a joke.

      Can they say they fucked up? No, they can’t.How do they mitigate an existential threat when nothing is really changing in the lifestyles of the species?

      Like me up here if/when a wildfire runs through this area no matter how much work I do pushing the forest back away from the buildings and keeping brush down etc etc there was nothing I could accomplish that my former insurance company was unwilling to take the risk of NO PROFITS! Can’t have that as that’s not why they are in business!

      They knew it and I know it. And bluntly, there is nothing any of us can do about it, not the flooding or the fires or the storms roaring across the planet. This just happened in Oregon:

      Oregon tried to inform residents about wildfire risk. The backlash was explosive.
      Homeowners fear the state will devalue their properties by publicizing their fire risk.

      Pretty crazy behavior, eh? Scream bloody murder when somebody tells you reality and get them to withdraw what they showed you because…you didn’t like it.


      Selkirk Range weather:

      I’m looking out the window at snow-covered conifers under a gray overcast sky. Temps have moderated to just below freezing at night and just above freezing during the day compared to the clear sky bone-cold of ten days ago. The additional 5 or so inches that fell a few days ago was, again like the last storm, very heavy and very wet for this area and more branches broke off my apple tree from the weight. My poor tree that has been here 50 years has no freaking idea what the weather is going to do because it is STILL covered in leaves with maybe a hundred apples still attached that the deer haven’t managed to reach (they showed up immediately as if they new a heavy wet snow would bend the tree limbs to nearly on the ground. Those branches were stripped of apples and leaves overnight. Opportunists!


      Liked by 1 person

  18. Kevin Hester says:

    “The world’s insurance bill from natural disasters this year: $115 billion
    That’s 42 percent higher than the 10-year average.”


  19. This popped up today:

    Psst, the insurance companies are going to cancel you.

    I started laughing (ironic humor) at the short list of ‘exemptions’ that insurance companies are using to still take money from people and not pay out when shit happens. So much for the 100 year storms, eh?

    The cartoon of the bomb shelter is pretty cute, too.

    At least this reality is starting to trickle out more and more in this country, and people are starting to wake up to the new reality, eh? Lots of stupid around…
    Selkirk Range weather:
    Buried in snowfall, far more in the last ten days that I had total either of the last two La Nina winters. I’m still digging out at this point. Had to fire up the snow thrower four time already to clear the road to the gate and paths to the shop and woodshed from the house.

    Last two winters I had to do that once each winter.

    As soon as the cloud cover moves the temps drop to bone-chill levels especially at night where it has been in the -10 to -17C range. Doesn’t crack above freezing in the daytime, either. Haven’t had paths through the snow like this in years. It actually is more like winter used to be in this area, at least so far.

    With this being the 3rd in a row La Nina it’s actually acting like one with more snow here but who knows what the hell is coming next. Weather predictions are shit at this point.

    I broke both v-belts on the snowthrower yesterday. Without this machine I’d be on my snowshoes and the vehicle would be parked in front of my gate probably buried by the county snowplow…if I could have moved it in the first place. Too much digging for my age but tea is steeping so I’d best go dig off the old 4runner so I can head to town in the hopes of finding the right v-belts to get this machine going again, then back to sewing snowgear orders!


    Liked by 1 person

  20. Kevin Hester says:

    “Christian Aid this week estimated that 2022’s 10 worst climate disasters alone cost more than $165bn, but that is likely to be nothing if action to adapt our infrastructure and economies is not taken urgently.”


  21. Kian F says:

    This is greeat

    Liked by 1 person

  22. Kevin Hester says:

    2022 was 3rd-costliest year for storms in US history: NOAA
    NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad joins ABC News Live to discuss the agency’s new climate report, which concludes 2022 was the third-costliest year for the U.S., among other alarming findings.–uVLXq5qVdaLQS4bPaCjiFbgejVBCWunTCbwI


    • No, I think the third costliest is going to be 2023 judging by this first month start to they year (combined with December’s freaky-deaky bomb cyclone like Winter Storm Elliot). Can’t wait to see the next few months before the El Nino heat slams in, eh? I’m assuming that the wildfires are going to start early again this year…and with all the rain there will be an explosion of plant growth that’ll dry out and…oh my!
      And the California news/weather guy is so thrilled that Lake Oroville is going to be at full pool by the time the Sierra snow starts melting. As if the 2-decade long drought has been broken as it’s now ‘only’ down to serious.

      He all but declared the drought over; at least that’s what I ‘heard’ listening to him. He’s was almost giddy, and that hand movement while saying the two top stages of drought “go way” was body English…out of sight out of mind.

      But wait! With this El Nino coming does having the lakes filled back up mean the expected massive heat the West Coast is facing isn’t going to affect anyone? Since it was 120 fucking degrees in a La Nina two summers ago will the El Nino this year push it to 125’F in these mountains? Lytton BC just north of me hit 122’F in 2021 and burned to the ground the same day so yeah, it’s a real possibility. I can’t fucking imagine that kind of heat here. Everything is going to die like 2021 but worse; plants, insects, mammals.

      In the Central Valley this year we can expect what kind of temperatures? Food plants don’t do well when it’s too hot much less humans without AC…and how much of the US fruits & veggies are grown in Calif? A huge percentage!

      Nothing has really changed except the destabilization has gotten to a point where it made the atmosphere (with its increased moisture content) flood like crazy. Just another added component of the climate breakdown. But don’t worry our little heads about it… The level of denial is stupendous here!

      And how’s Auckland doing? Seems like they just had a rather phenomenal level of rain in less than 24 hours. Like more than a summer’s worth all at once? Vids on youtube were pretty impressive, but your new PM didn’t impress me in the least. I understand that more torrential rain is due in to fall on Auckland again this week. North Island is getting sucker punched from what I’m seeing on the youtube vids.

      But I really appreciate hearing some of the NZ officials actually saying “They shouldn’t have built there” because this country continues to build wherever the fuck a developer bribes the politicians to allow them to. Oh wait, I guess I should use the term ‘campaign contributions’ instead, eh?


      Liked by 1 person

  23. Kevin Hester says:

    WFLA Jeff Berardelli
    “New from NOAA: Ian’s estimated cost surpasses Sandy and Maria, to place it 3rd on the list of costliest US hurricanes at $113 billion dollars. (this is an early estimated and will likely be amended once all costs are tallied) ”


  24. Kevin Hester says:

    “10 January 2023 (Munich Re) – With overall losses of around US$ 270bn (previous year US$ 320bn) and insured losses of roughly US$ 120bn (previous year US$ 120bn), 2022 joins the recent run of years with high losses. Overall losses were close to the average for the last five years, while insured losses were significantly above average (2017–2021: US$ 97bn). The continued high level of insured losses is impacting insurers at a time when they are having to deal with both high inflation rates and a shrinking capital base due to rising interest rates.”


  25. Kevin Hester says:

    “Following Auckland’s January floods, Insurance Council consumer affairs manager Sarah Knox told RNZ it would be years before all claims are settled for flood damaged homes, cars and contents.”


  26. Kevin Hester says:

    “Yellen will tell a new advisory board of academics, private sector experts and non-profits there has been a five-fold increase in the annual number of billion-dollar disasters over the past five years, compared to the 1980s, even after taking into account inflation.”
    Can anyone else see the “Exponential Function” here or is it just this old alarmist?


  27. Flooding Increasingly Pummels The Southeast U.S. These Organizers Are Fighting Back.

    As deadly flooding devastates more communities, often the poorest and most disinvested, residents are banding together to research the problems and press for solutions.

    And now California is about to be hit by ANOTHER atmospheric river ‘event’ which seems, this winter at least, never ending. Expected heavy rains again, probably more massive dumps in the high country (they’re still digging people out in the mountains and dropping food and medicine by helicopter after two weeks+ of being buried), and flooding is expected to wash away more homes and roads and bridges.

    On and on the strange weather goes…


    Liked by 1 person

  28. Kevin Hester says:

    “What Insurance Tells Us About Our (In)Capacity for Climate Resilience
    In a western country, because of climate change impacts and escalating costs of living, property insurance has become unaffordable for most, or no longer available”


  29. Kevin Hester says:

    “What is climate change really doing? It’s making risk spiral out of control. “Risk premia,” as economists call them, are rising. Try getting insurance for a house on a beach these days. But as risk premia rise, so too does the risk of bank failure, of financial crisis. Because, of course, everything’s getting more risky.


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Kevin Hester

Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water.  I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.

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