Collapse: The Only Realistic Scenario

This months guest on Nature Bats Last is Arthur Keller author of the You Tube Presentation “Collapse: The Only Realistic Scenario”.
Kevin and Guy were joined by Arthur Keller, who studies system dynamics. Initially a rocket scientist, Keller has become an author, screenwriter, and keynote speaker. We lost Arthur for a few moments but the technicians at the studio burst into life, recovered the signal with him and he saw out an interesting hour with us.

The episode is embedded here;


Arthur’s seminal You Tube Presentation: Collapse: The Only Realistic Scenario

I mentioned the work of Albert Bartlett and his contention that “The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race is our inability to understand the exponential Function” I’ve embedded that presentation for further reference

This interview continues a theme on NBL of non-linear changes we are witnessing. Grasping the significance of non-linearity is crucial to this predicament. Our previous guest Dr Andrew Glikson has a similar contention. That interview and corroborating evidence is embedded here;

Professor Paul Ehrlich was interviewed previously on this blog about his position on the coming collapse. That discussion is embedded here:

Good luck everyone

I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Arthur Keller, Collapse, Nature Bats Last, Professor Guy McPherson
31 comments on “Collapse: The Only Realistic Scenario
  1. I noticed on the Nature bats last pages podcast only people with CELL PHONES & the right app can comment on the program!
    So I cannot comment on the program because I don’t have a cell phone, I don’t need a cell phone & I can’t afford a cell phone, I agree however that collapse is in our future, we ignored scientific warnings for way too long.

    Overpopulation is the most IGNORED & critical problem we have, it’s the FOUNDATION of all our other problems & by ignoring overpopulation & only treating the symptoms, it’s just as “wise” as putting band aids over a growing CANCER!

    We are totally dependent upon fossil resources & the web is chock full of people claiming we can “transition” to “renewables” that are also DEPENDENT UPON FOSSIL RESOURCES!

    They claim their “cheaper” than coal, they claim their “clean & green” when in fact their only clean where they are being used not where they are produced, usually in China.
    They believe we can continue on as is on just “renewables”, wrong dupes!

    Fast or slow? I don’t know, most of us hope it won’t happen while we are still alive.

    When collapse does happen, ti will be back to being RULED by religious “leaders”, lords, kings & terrorist IF we survive what we have done to this wonderful living planet.
    Great show as usual & a fasinating guest Kevin!

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Kevin Hester says:

    The latest on the unfolding collapse from Arthur Keller.
    The English translation is a little ‘lumpy’ but the analysis continues to be excellent


  3. Bob Boldt says:

    I am not new to the Doomer philosophy so I have seen a lot of very impressive ecology/collapse videos, Notably “What a Way to Go.” Mr. Keller’s video is arguably the most sobering assessment of the perfect storm life on earth faces that I have seen. I know it is rare to find a documentary these days that isn’t exquisitely shot. But this one is especially visually awesome.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. […] My friend Kevin Hester wrote all this up a few weeks ago. you can read his roundup of such news at his website. But his sum-up of the situation is pretty direct: Clearly the cost of disasters is on the same Hockey Stick trajectory as our climate crisis yet “Business as Usual” carries on as if nothing has changed. All Ponzi schemes eventually implode and this one will be no different except in scale. There is no previous analogue to remotely compare with the coming collapse. […]

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Kevin Hester says:

    On the February episode of Nature Bats Last I mentioned to our guest Dr Andrew Glikson from The Australian National University that his colleague Dr. Joelle Gergis, a lead author on the IPCC’s sixth assessment report was under stating the amount of warming that we have already triggered because she refuses to use 1750 as a baseline. There was also considerable anthropogenic warming prior to 1750 from agriculture. Ignoring any warming is nonsensical and lacks academic rigor and fails the ‘Precautionary Principal’.
    Complexity is our achilles heel and we’ve never lived in such complex societies making this one much more vulnerable to perturbations.
    I would give us 2 to 5 years.


  6. Kevin Hester says:

    On the October episode of Nature Bats Last on the Progressive Radio Network my co-host Professor Guy McPherson and I interviewed Robert Hunziker about the great unraveling we are all witnessing and are a part of.
    In this latest article Robert discusses the inevitably of bio-sphere collapse! (How weird it is for me to write those words !!!!!! )
    In next months episode we will re-interview Stephen Jenkinson sometimes known as “The Grief Walker” when we will continue our mission to have the conversations most shy away from.
    The interview with Robert and a previous interview with Stephen Jenkinson can be found at the Nature Bats Last archive at PRN.FM


  7. Kevin Hester says:

    “Ultimately, the world economy may be headed for collapse.”
    I was of the opinion that the world economy was in early stage collapse before this event. It can only be closer as a result.
    “As soon as the shutdowns end, it will be obvious that the world economy is in worse condition than it was before the shutdown. The longer the shutdowns last, the worse shape the world economy will be in. Thus, when businesses are restarted, we can expect even more protests and more divisive politics. Some governments may be overthrown, or they may collapse without being pushed. I fear that the world economy will be further down the road toward overall collapse.”
    I will be very surprised if industrial civilisation survives this level of destabilisation considering it was teetering before we all got the bug.


  8. Kevin Hester says:

    “But the vulnerable, defenseless bottoms of things are also their foundations. The foundations of the most basic things of all — of democracy, of peace, of water, of air, of life itself. What kind of a fool would eat through the roots of his own orchard, just because he can?”
    Umair Haque has great style and forethought.
    The Age of Collapse
    Why Everything’s Collapsing, and What to Do About It


  9. Kevin Hester says:

    These guys totally get that there is a global financial coup being carried out and that the ‘virus’ is a spectacularly convenient trigger to invoke martial law everywhere with a lock down. How convenient as the entire global financial system goes into meltdown.
    One of the participants asks the other, I’m paraphrasing “How could this be a conspiracy between all these disparate nations” and the reply, verbatim was”Most of them are clueless”.
    Bank robbers have been running the global monetary system and it just imploded.
    These two assume there will be an economic system to follow this one. I don’t, I believe it will trigger biosphere collapse. The loss of the aerosol masking effect, the melt down of 450 nuke plants, 1300 spent fuel pool fires.
    I do not believe we are ever going back to the life we all had a month ago.
    The discussion is subtitled in a perfect translation from the German. Don’t let that deter you. It’s well worth the hour.


  10. Kevin Hester says:

    “King wrote: “The ‘comfort cult’, as Amalrik called it – the tendency in seemingly stable societies to believe “that ‘reason will prevail’ and that ‘everything will be all right'” – is seductive. As a result, when a terminal crisis comes, it is likely to be unexpected, confusing, and catastrophic,”
    In Hemingway’s 1926 novel “The Sun Also Rises” Bill asked
    “How did you go bankrupt?” .
    “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
    This is exactly how civilisations collapse, slowly and then suddenly. The cognitive dissonance around not seeing the obvious signs is amazing.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Kevin Hester says:

    “five days of prostitution followed by two days of resuscitation”.
    ‘Humans weren’t always here. We could disappear’: meet the collapsologists


  12. Kevin Hester says:

    “The system as a whole is pushed toward collapse.”
    “The situation we are headed for looks much like the collapses of early civilizations.”
    Gail has come to much the same conclusions as myself and our former guest on Nature Bats Last Arthur Keller.
    I would hazard that none of us want to be right but we don’t ‘do’ hopium.


  13. Kevin Hester says:

    “If the cement industry were a country, it would be the third largest carbon dioxide emitter in the world with up to 2.8bn tonnes, surpassed only by China and the US.”
    This is why only collapse will slow down this runaway freight train.


  14. Kevin Hester says:

    I’m in an email group with many scientists and researchers where we discuss the unfolding collapse.
    William Rees who is quoted in this article is one of the contributors and I often quote his contention that ” The scientifically relevant is politically unfeasible and the politically feasible is scientifically irrelevant”. It’s interesting that even the mainstream media are now forced to confront the issue of collapse.
    One of the most significant papers released recently is co-authored by two former guests on my and Guy McPherson’s radio show Nature Bats Last. Professor Corey Bradshaw from Flinders University in Oz and Professor Paul Ehrlich from Stanford in the USA. The paper is titled ” Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future”.
    Guy recently made a video where he contends that even this paper underestimates the severity and rapidity of the collapse.
    In two days we will re-interview Professor Paul Ehrlich and no doubt Guy will air his contention that even this warning doesn’t go far enough.
    Shortly after the live broadcast on the Progressive Radio Network it will be uploaded to the extensive NBL archive and I’ll post it on my website with all the corroborating evidence embedded.


  15. Kevin Hester says:

    In the immortal words of Kenneth Boulding “Anyone who considers economic growth can continue indefinitely in a finite system is either a madman or an economist.”

    Liked by 1 person

  16. Kevin Hester says:

    The only caveat I’d add to Umair’s brilliant analysis is the tense in the title, we have lost the “Battle for the Future”.


  17. I absolutely love the “Are you an idiot?” at the end of the ‘Nobody thoughtful,’ paragraph 12. I laughed out loud. Haven’t done that much lately though I did put in George Carlin’s ‘Jamming in New York’ dvd recently…

    As a species…yes. As an incredibly dense overpopulated mass of blithering primates greedily grasping for the banana? Yes. As a civilization owned and controlled by the wealth and power by a tiny minority of sociopaths/psychopaths?

    Absolutely. Fucking. Idiots. Bezos mindless interview comments after going up in his rocket proved that without a shred of doubt.

    Sucks to be us. Looks like the Fermi Paradox is gonna come true for this planet, too.


    Liked by 1 person

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Kevin Hester

Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water.  I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.

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