“Changes will happen decades earlier than previously thought.”
Now where have we heard that before?
“More rain than snow will fall in the Arctic and this transition will occur decades earlier than previously predicted, a new study led by the University of Manitoba (UM) and co-authored by scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at CU Boulder reports.”
New Climate Study Predicting More Rain Than Snow in the Arctic ‘Rings Alarm Bells’
“There are huge ramifications of these changes,” said the lead researcher, “all of which have implications on wildlife populations and human livelihoods.”
“There are huge ramifications of these changes, which we note in the paper, such as a reduction of snow cover, increased permafrost melt, more rain-on-snow events, and greater flooding events from increased river discharge, all of which have implications on wildlife populations and human livelihoods,” says lead researcher Michelle McCrystall, a postdoctoral fellow in UM’s Centre for Earth Observation Science in the Clayton H. Riddell Faculty of Environment, Earth, and Resources.
Rainfall in Arctic Will Soon Be More Common Than Snowfall – Decades Earlier Than Thought
“The Arctic is iconic for maintaining year-round ice and snow, but in the last decade, it has begun to transition to wetlands and open ocean. Emblematic of this change, in July 2020, the last intact ice shelf in the Canadian Arctic fell into the sea. Since first analyzed in 1902, the Milne ice sheet already lost 43 percent of its previous mass. Canada’s Ellesmere Island ice caps were also lost in the summer of 2020, as the ice deposited during the Little Ice Age (1600 to 1850) melted completely. Glacier melt, thawing permafrost and wetland expansion create a new landscape, changing ecosystems as well as altering the global atmosphere and ocean circulation.”
Climate tipping points: The Arctic is a bellwether for irreversible change
“It is fitting that we are meeting here in Arkhangelsk, a historical meeting place between the East and West. I approach the event in this spirit: Promoting a meeting of minds with a firm belief that the Arctic will indeed remain a “Territory of Dialogue,” said President Niinistö during his opening remarks at “The Arctic: Territory of Dialogue” forum in Arkhangelsk in North Russia. “My starting point today is the growing threat of climate change. Tackling this challenge is crucial if we want to ensure that the Arctic remains the place it is today. But the issue is of global significance: If we lose the Arctic, we lose the whole world.” President Niinistö of Finland April 3, 2017
President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’
“Siberian Permafrost Turns Carbon-12 Tap On: Radiocarbon Diminishing in Air – by Albert Kallio Today there are over 27,000 recorded methane craters discovered on the Arctic Ocean’s sea bed and many have diameter of 1 km or wider. The largest methane crater found so far is 750 km² in its area and has lost from its deposit thickness over 300 metres (and all of that is pure carbon-12 that was originally within methane ice, of course).From the post ‘Siberian Permafrost Turns Carbon-12 Tap On: Radiocarbon Diminishing in Air’, at: “Siberian Permafrost Turns Carbon-12 Tap On: Radiocarbon Diminishing in Air
“Losing the remaining Arctic sea ice and its ability to reflect incoming solar energy back to space would be equivalent to adding one trillion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, on top of the 2.4 trillion tons emitted since the Industrial Age, according to current and former researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego.”
“At current rates, this roughly equates to 25 years of global CO2 emissions.”
I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.
Kevin Hester 
[…] “If We Lose the Arctic We Lose the Globe” We’ve Lost the Arctic […]
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The sheer enormity of this should cause all of us to blanche. Loss of albedo equates to nearly 50% of what is already been emitted, and then, we can expect accelerated methane release of gigantic proportions… A melted arctic could hold none of the hydrates back from complete sublimation, not to mention the carbon releases from terrestrial permafrost. All this is occurring before our eyes.
Trinity/Hiroshima/Nagasaki was the global signal for everyone to pause, reflect, & reassess our priorities. Alas, being the species we are, with strong subconscious evolutionary drives for status/reproduction/growth, none of that happened. Thus, we now find ourselves in a situation of irreversible peril.
“A hundred thousand years from now — once the background radiation levels drop below lethality — a new Homo mutilus will crawl out of the caves to elect a leader. Although we have no idea what mutilus might look like, evolutionary theory can still tell us who will win the election. He will be the best liar running on a platform to end hunger by controlling nature.”
https://jayhanson.org/page181.htm
Not to be missed: Doug Stanhope – Sodomy is “Eco-Friendly”
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That one got me laughing. I love the mug of beer thing…
Especially since we HAVE lost the damned Arctic any time now and we fucking damn well know it… I am seriously dreading the coming warm period that will probably start in these mountains again in March with no snow on the ground. With the rain and 6’C temp today (in mid-Dec??), there isn’t really much of the thin layer left. There was mud today, and by sunset nothing on roofs and patchy-covered ground.
sealintheSelkriks
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“If We Lose the Arctic We Lose the Globe” We’ve Lost the Arctic
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[…] ““If We Lose the Arctic We Lose the Globe” We’ve Lost the Arctic” kevinhester.live/2021/12/10/if-we-lose-the-arctic-we-lose… […]
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Deep adaptation in the US…with a thousand homes burning down outside of Denver Colorado yesterday in a fucking wildfire. The tornadoes this month, another massive atmospheric river hits California, an old East Coast snowboarder friend driving truck delivering to food stores between Pittsburg and Maryland in warm almost 20C weather, same with my old friend Jani who moved to Missouri last summer, it’s 70’F there last email.
It was below 20C last night but I didn’t walk out to the woodshed where the mercury with the lower temp marks is hanging. The one on the house doesn’t go any lower but screw walking in this cold!
But this will save us!
Climate Brief: Big Money Bets on Nuclear Fusion to Save the Planet
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/12/27/2071036/-Climate-Brief-Big-Money-Bets-on-Nuclear-Fusion-to-Save-the-Planet
Scientists at MIT last week announced they are close to designing a nuclear fusion system that could be capable of creating clean energy by the end of the decade, providing hope of reaching “Zero 50” thanks to investments from the private sector.
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sealintheSelkirks
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Correction: Negative 20C! Subzero F.
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What can one say to this? Grieve for every living critter on the planet I guess…
sealintheSelkirks
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What can one say to something like this other than: Are you shitting me?
My question are, however, just who authored the reports that were not in the ‘than most climate models have predicted’ category? And why isn’t there a link to articles from exactly those who authored reports that were, shall we say, too frightening. You’d think that the MOST ACCURATE PREDICTIONS would be listed here so people could go read what they say. Perhaps it might be those that we read, eh Kevin?
‘Off the Scale’: Warmer Arctic Ocean Fueling Climate Feedback Loop Faster Than Previously Known
“This is one of the scariest reports I have ever seen,” said one climate scientist in response to new study.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/06/15/scale-warmer-arctic-ocean-fueling-climate-feedback-loop-faster-previously-known
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sealintheSelkirks
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This is pretty spooky. So the Methane is taking the place of 02 and suffocating other animals that are breathing at sea level? So what happens when that level rises above the ocean enough to do the same to humans on ships? Oh, yeah, we need O2 also now don’t we? Imagine one of those Godzilla-sized cruise ships being found adrift with a crew and a couple thousand or more of the wealthier privileged all suffocated to death onboard. Can you imagine the outrage?
Not so much when it’s a bunch of other mammals I guess…
Russia: Mass seal death likely due to oxygen deprivation
https://apnews.com/article/science-europe-business-caspian-sea-climate-and-environment-0c5fb75795484d1eb64ef4b8534d14f2
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sealintheSelkirks
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“The Caspian Sea has extensive natural gas reserves that are being tapped increasingly.”
Who had methane asphyxiating Seals for December?
This is a twist on the methane threat I never saw coming.
The quintessential “Black Swan”.
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I just learned that James Hanson has submitted a paper that acknowledges that enough CO2 is currently in the atmosphere guarentees a 10 temprature rise?! Hanson is not taking interviews until the paper finishes peer-review.
Holy cow, this is a bombshell. I have not taken the time to investage or look for his paper, but people in my community assure me it is thus. Have you guys, (or Guy) heard of this? Does Hanson read Arctic News Lol?
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Yes, I’ve read into parts of it. It’s a collaborative paper by a group of scientists but he’s got top billing being who he is.
I don’t think they’re kidding, ya know?
As for being under peer review, the only people that might contest this assessment are those controlled by the fossil fuel oligarchs. Or those that this concepts scares them so badly they just can’t accept it no matter what the science says. That cognitive dissonance thing is amazingly strong in some.
Of which there are quite a few of both types I’ll agree, but Hansen has a heavy reputation to buck up against. I’m waiting to read the entire paper. I’m sure it isn’t going to be a fun read…
But hold onto your hat because El Nino is going to hit this year after this last three unusual years of back to back La Nina ‘cooling.’ Anybody notice any cooling the last three years? No? Me, neither!
Seems as though the cycle is bypassing a return to normal sea temps (as if those exist any longer?) in favor of nothing but extremes. Isn’t that a kick in the pants? I’m somehow expecting to see above the 120’F/49’C temps of June 2021 during the middle ‘cooling down’ La Nina year. It’ll damn sure be over the 112’F/44’C of last summer. Deep doo-doo here in these mountains under the Canadian border, Hamlet.
sealintheSelkirks
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Oh, great. An El-Nino isn’t somethin’ to look forward to here in Cascadia. The 2021 heat event was madness, forgotten almost immediately. Our fire season is already off the charts, with crews overwhelmed, abundant fuel, and little recourse. I’d refuge someplace else, but alas, that someplace doesn’t exist.
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Yeah, I’m east of the Cascades in NE Stevens County, about 40 miles N/W of Spokane in the Selkirk Range (east of the Columbia River). You must be down in Oregon?
And I agree, there is no ‘safer’ place to run to at this point…except maybe New Zealand where Kevin is. And even then it’s only temporary. But their PM just got run out of office (burned out by threats etc) by their version of mad MAGA/wealthy conservative types so depending on who takes her place even there might radically change to the madness we are experiencing here…
You are correct, there is no escaping consequences. I think I can see where the tracks of this roller coaster ride are dangling off the edge of a cliff…
sealintheSelkirks
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