Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapse


As we watch the US banking system totter and begin to collapse, like the proverbial Jenga stack, we need to consider the implications this has for the global financial system and its supply chains.
I’ll begin with the stellar work of David Korowicz published on   


Overview

“This study considers the relationship between a global systemic banking, monetary and solvency crisis and its implications for the real-time flow of goods and services in the globalised economy. It outlines how contagion in the financial system could set off semi-autonomous contagion in supply-chains globally, even where buyers and sellers are linked by solvency, sound money and bank intermediation. The cross-contagion between the financial system and trade/production networks is mutually reinforcing.”

“It is argued that in order to understand systemic risk in the globalised economy, account must be taken of how growing complexity (interconnectedness, interdependence and the speed of processes), the de-localisation of production and concentration within key pillars of the globalised economy have magnified global vulnerability and opened up the possibility of a rapid and large-scale collapse. ‘Collapse’ in this sense means the irreversible loss of socio-economic complexity which fundamentally transforms the nature of the economy. These crucial issues have not been recognised by policy-makers nor are they reflected in economic thinking or modelling.” Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapse


The Modern Economy, Civilisation, Complexity & Collapse – David Korowicz

“Last year, vials of the decades-old chemotherapy drug fludarabine could be purchased for a wholesale price of around $110. Not so much anymore.”

“This year, one company—Areva Pharmaceuticals—has jacked the figure up to $2,736, Stat News reports.” 

“What’s going on with the aging chemotherapy used to prepare patients for cancer treatment?
It all comes down to supply chain problems triggering shortages that affect the only other two suppliers of the drug in the United States—Teva and Fresenius Kabi.” Drug shortages aren’t going away any time soon, supply chain expert warns
The link above courtesy of David Ferraro author of the The Collapse Chronicle

In the video discussion below, recorded seven years ago between Professor Guy McPherson and myself we discuss the tenuous state of the supply chain.

Edge of Extinction: Disruption of Supply Chain




“By 2027 the world could be facing a 214 trillion calorie deficit, says Sara Menker, founder and chief executive of Gro Intelligence, an agricultural data technology company.”
Published in 2018, do the math: We Have Five Years To Save Ourselves From Climate Change, Harvard Scientist Says”
So which goes first? The Supply Chain or the Food?


When not if Industrial Civilisation collapses we lose the “Aerosol Masking Effect” as pointed out by one of my readers in the comments section below, hence this edit on March 15th.
“The impact of the aerosol masking effect has been greatly underestimated, as pointed out in an 8 February 2019 article in Science. As indicated by the lead author of this paper on 25 January 2019: “Global efforts to improve air quality by developing cleaner fuels and burning less coal could end up harming our planet by reducing the number of aerosols in the atmosphere, and by doing so, diminishing aerosols’ cooling ability to offset global warming.”
From the post: “Global Dimming keeping the planet habitable”

Unknown's avatar

I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.

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167 comments on “Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapse
  1. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    The Banks are COLLAPSING and it’s getting worse

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0asYs4hZb8

    Like

  2. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    Guy dives into the Ponzi scheme that is the US economy and the irrefutable reality that it can never repay its $7.6 trillion-dollar, warmongering driven debt. It can only be a matter of time before Russia and China weaponize the US debt against the US war machine, why not?

    Jamie Dimon Issues Warning About 2024-2025 Economy (youtube.com)

    Like

  3. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    “The strong dollar is about to unwind the entire global economy.”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUJGij5pd4c

    Like

  4. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    17 million barrels of oil passes through the Straits of Hormuz every day.
    Iran could stop it tomorrow, if they get pissed off enough!
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/uILb1Pm6anw

    Like

  5. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    Financial crisis & bailoutRole in crisis & financial innovation

    “In her book Fool’s GoldFinancial Times columnist Gillian Tett focuses on the “innovation evangelists” in the firm. A team within JP Morgan developed many of the financial products like credit derivative, which almost brought down the financial system in 2008. The long subtitle of the book sums up her research: How the Bold Dream of a Small Tribe at J.P. Morgan was Corrupted by Wall Street Greed and Unleashed a Financial Catastrophe.[1] A JP Morgan executive told Tett, that the idea of creating markets for credit derivatives was first developed at a 1994 company retreat in Boca Raton (Florida):”
    JP Morgan Chase financial crisis – SourceWatch

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  6. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    “Sources close to The BRICS nations pointed to October when they will officially announce their dollar killer, their own currency backed by gold and commodities. Congressman Ron Paul, who accurately predicted the 2008 collapse, says the demise of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency is inevitable.”

    Brace for impact!

    (110) BRICS just announced the U.S. Dollar is about to COLLAPSE for good! | Redacted with Clayton Morris – YouTube

    Like

  7. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    BANK FAILURES: $517 Billion in Unrealized Losses, $9.3 Billion in Bad Loans Will Spark a Crisis

    🚨BANK FAILURES: $517 Billion in Unrealized Losses, $9.3 Billion in Bad Loans Will Spark a Crisis (youtube.com)

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  8. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    “Energy is the base layer of money”

    ‘Luke is an Author and Investor who gives us a completely new way to look at money, through the lens of energy costs.”

    “The essential learning of today’s show is that you can’t understand money until you understand energy markets. Apart from that Luke explains why the price of oil is about to force a monetary system change, why the 60/40 portfolio is dead and much more.”
    A great overview of how intertwined everything is to energy!
    Luke Gromen: Why you Should Prepare for a MASSIVE Economic Shift (youtube.com)

    Like

  9. sealintheselkirks's avatar sealintheselkirks says:

    Then there is this ‘market’ shift, eh? The edifice of the Petro-dollar is crumbling and that spells…what?

    How a Saudi pullback from a landmark US deal would be bad news for dollar dominance

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dollar-dominance-dedollarization-petrodollar-saudi-crude-greenback-china-yuan-brics-2024-6?op=1

    ___

    sealintheSelkirks

    Like

  10. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    The potential for this to trigger some degree of contagion seems inevitable.
    In reality we’re dealing with a nuclear armed bankrupt, led by a dementia sufferer and a cohort of psychopaths!

    Petrodollar Deal Expires; Why this Could Trigger ‘Collapse of Everything’ – Andy Schectman part1/2 (youtube.com)

    Like

  11. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    There is a high chance of contagion spreading between institutions.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bYndAG3XlU

    Like

  12. sealintheselkirks's avatar sealintheselkirks says:

    Are We Ready for the Financial Hurricane?

    How devastating hurricanes such as Milton and Helene could trigger the next big economic crisis.

    https://www.truthdig.com/articles/are-we-ready-for-the-financial-hurricane/
    ____

    Last ‘estimate’ I read is, between the two hurricanes in 2 weeks, is $250,000,000. At a minimum. And years to rebuild IF it is even possible to rebuild the infrastructure because the ground washed away that bridges etc were sitting on. Of course that is as long as no other hurricanes happen along. Which is, I think, far more likely than not.

    This weather destruction shit is going to bankrupt a hell of a lot of countries in the next few years.

    sealintheSelkirks

    Liked by 1 person

  13. […] a great lecture from David Korowicz published on June 17, 2012 embedded following: Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapseGood luck everyone, we sure are going to need it, soon we’ll all be walking around looking as […]

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  14. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    By over-riding concern is the potential for contagion amongst the banks. We know we can’t trust a word or a figure they tell us. No one really knows how big the derivatives and futures contracts really are!

    Office Property Meltdown Is Starting to Surface at Regional Banks

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  15. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    The clock continues to tick on the Insurance industry and the possibility of defaults in the banking system
    Climate disasters lead to billions in insurance losses. Could they trigger a financial crisis? | CBC News

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  16. sealintheselkirks's avatar sealintheselkirks says:

    This stupid wealthy Fascist idiot is doing more damage to the ‘financial system’ that we possibly can know:

    The Towering Idiocy of Tinkering With Treasury Code

    How Elon Musk’s access to the federal payment systems could trigger a global financial meltdown.

    https://www.truthdig.com/articles/the-towering-idiocy-of-tinkering-with-treasury-code/
    ___
    Could go down faster than any of us think it could. Balanced on a razor blade is what I’m thinking, especially with STUPID in control!

    Lawrence: Any rational thing Dems say to Trump, Musk ‘bounces off the solid wall of stupidity’

    ___
    sealintheSelkirks

    Liked by 1 person

  17. sealintheselkirks's avatar sealintheselkirks says:

    Start? Should have started when neoliberal Fascist Ronald Reagan was put in as President! It’s far too late to remedy any personal situation…unless of course if you’re disgustingly wealthy and psychopathic like those who are current running the US government into the ground.

    But all empires crash from internal rot and greed that also affected the surrounding environments that they over-used as their populations grew. Crashes come from too many directions to really ‘prepare’ for any eventuality and the too-numerous-to-list possibilities of utter horror.

    There are a number of these sites and they seem to be proliferating. I’ve read into a few, and they are pretty much all saying the same thing.

    And I sure the hell am not one of the independently wealthy. Elon’s fellow South African Peter Thiel who lives in NZ is part of this shit, too. It’s a coup, no doubt about it. Fascist Apartheid-raised MFs like Musk etc are just having a great time.

    sealintheSelkirks

    Liked by 1 person

  18. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    Will Tariffs Trigger Banking Collapse? Banks’ Top Risks Exposed | Christopher Whalen

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbJNofkUMm8

    Like

  19. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    As China Borrows USD Cheaper Than Washington, U.S. Supply Collapse Threatens Empty Shelves

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2YFy_m60Kw

    Like

  20. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    An excellent analysis of the great unravelling of the Empire of Chaos.
    We will all be collateral damage when contagion spreads through the banking sector.
    There was huge concern when Lehman bank collapsed that the contagion could spread. That possibility is higher today than then, due to “Quantitative easing”, formerly known as counterfeiting.
    ‘Fixing’ a debt crisis with more debt is the road to ruin.

    This Is How the American Economy Ends: And It’s Already Happening

    Like

  21. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    I can smell contagion in the air. The Ponzi scheme in the USA, masquerading as an economy, is as bloated, mal nourished and overhyped as the TV star chosen by the Military Industrial Congressional Complex to escort the American people and economy into the abyss.

    Market Panic: Dollar CRASHES Toward 3-YEAR LOW as Global Investors Dump US Currency For Safer Assets

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  22. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    I suspect the debt is even higher that reported, either way, like all Ponzi schemes and bubbles this two will pop, and we’ll all be collateral damage.
    The “Death Spiral” Threatening Your Savings & The Gold Standard of Protection

    Like

  23. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    “Planetary Insolvency”, what a catchall.
    I heard one commentator, when referring to the Davos summit, where our billionaire owners divvy up the world’s resources, as we broil the planet, they used the term “Juggling Chickens and Chainsaws”, in reference to how tenuous the global economy is and the lack of ‘solutions’ to the debt burden all countries are in.
    Add in abrupt, irreversible climate change, DJT and cohorts treating it as a ‘Hoax’ and we have the perfect storm.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FYFJNKgJR0

    Like

  24. sealintheselkirks's avatar sealintheselkirks says:

    (4June post)
    No, putrefaction in the air, Kevin. That sickly-sweet rot smell of a dead human body is becoming very apparent in my imagination because that’s what a crash of this magnitude does to . Probably emanating off DJT and all those you say are ‘escorting’ the masses to the abyss. It’s a loooooong drop, dude.

    And dipshit DJT just signed another of his un-Constitutional proclamations (not-a-law unless passed by Congress) saying local politicians now have the power to enforce ‘mandatory commitment of anyone who is deemed ‘homeless’. Lock them up in institutions! But since Reagan closed all the hospitals back in the 80s and kicked those people all out into the streets, I guess those concentration camps they are building will have to do, eh?

    Who is homeless? Anybody that can’t afford $2,000 a month for a 1 bedroom apartment on a $7.25 federal minimum wage job. That’s what 15 states, almost all of them run by right wing GOP governors and the majority are Southern Slave states. You know, Trump-voters! Plus people living on the streets in tents which are NOW ILLEGAL in most cities anyway.

    Add in people in RVs, the van life folks, and in their cars WHO GO TO WORK everyday are also included in that. It makes no distinctions between a crazy homeless, an addict, and somebody who can’t afford the rent. Like old retired people on fixed incomes, or NO income for that matter. A whole lot of those are living in RVs…and on the streets. Social Security checks don’t cover the rent for most people. And Trumpie wants to cancel that, too.

    We have entered the USA’s version of Stalin’s Soviet Union of getting rid of ‘undesirables’ I think. And political enemies. It’s coming.

    (30June post)
    Yep, I’m sure the debt is much higher, too. But I must ask; WHAT savings are you talking about? 60% of the country’s workforce is paycheck to paycheck, and doesn’t have $1,000 for an emergency. A majority don’t even have $500!!!

    (28July post)
    And the moron has de-funded FEMA (most definitely for states run by Liberals or Progressive governors), slashed the shit out of NOAA and National Weather Service firing hundreds of scientists including hurricane-hunter aircraft and weather balloons…perfect for being the start of an expected ‘over-active’ hurricane season we’re going into.

    I’ll be curious to see if by some chance a Cat 6 will take out his golden palace and golf course in Palm Beach Florida, the ‘millionaire’s paradise’ as it’s touted as being, this season. That would absolutely crush the insurance industry since so many have already bailed the state. All the big corporations have left.

    If only there was a vengeful god…oh wait, doesn’t he say he’s a ‘good’ christian? Revenge is that god’s prime directive as they say on Star Trek!

    Trump administration shuts down EPA’s scientific research arm
    https://www.npr.org/2025/07/20/nx-s1-5474320/trump-epa-scientific-research-zeldin

    sealintheSelkirks

    Liked by 1 person

  25. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    “Money, debt, and finance shape the lives of everyone globally, including through the policies and actions of national central banks – yet even those who are well-versed in these subjects often miss the full scope of these intricate relationships. For the average person, headlines about mounting government debt and surging interest rates often feel like a confusing and concerning trend. What can we learn from historical cycles, global energy dynamics, and the differing fiscal strategies of nations about the trajectory of the world economy?”
    Our Financial Predicament From a Systems Perspective with Lyn Alden | TGS 188

    Like

    • sealintheselkirks's avatar sealintheselkirks says:

      This popped up today on Counterpunch Plus. If you subscribe you can access it:

      THE TRUE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE MAY BE 25%

      BY PETE DOLACK

      How many people are out of work? What is the real unemployment rate? We don’t know. What we do know is that the true number is far higher than the unemployment rate at any given time
      __
      This country is SO fucking close to an economic collapse it isn’t even funny…

      sealintheSelkirks

      Liked by 1 person

  26. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    DJT tarrifying the USA into oblivion.
    Some great stats on supply chain break down and all the copper mines being discovered now are at great depths hence uneconomical.

    Like

  27. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    This is a fascinating analysis about how tenuous the supply chains are Without factoring in Peak Oil.
    The cognitive dissonance on the subject of PO is breathtaking!
    The thing capitalism hates most is uncertainty, the new emperor in the USA immolated that!

    Like

  28. sealintheselkirks's avatar sealintheselkirks says:

    Yep, DJT and his incompetent ijits are following the dictates of the wealthy class they belong to or that control them. Look how many billionaires are in his cabinet destroying the various federal departments they are ‘in charge’ of that tend to be what helps regular people survive and prosper.

    Now they are pushing the US into a complete economic collapse, just like Wbush did in his ‘Great Recession’ and the others plus, of course, the Republican Great Depression of 1929. Hartmann lays it out succinctly:

    The Coming Republican Depression: How the GOP Turned America Into a Powder Keg, and Is About to Light the Match

    Housing bubbles, financial scams, and political sabotage are converging into a historic, preventable disaster.

    https://hartmannreport.com/p/the-coming-republican-depression?publication_id=302288

    __

    Worldwide crash, dude, are you somewhat prepared for something like this? Though I have no idea how anyone can really prepare for something like this if you are just a normal person…

    sealintheSelkirks

    Liked by 1 person

  29. sealintheselkirks's avatar sealintheselkirks says:

    And now the moron-in-charge’s pick to head NASA that he’s already defunded the hell out of along with NOAA, the National Weather Service, FEMA, Public Health, and so many other agencies, wants to spend HOW MUCH to put a nuclear reactor on the moon. For what purpose? So they can charge their cell phones?

    https://weather.com/science/space/video/nasa-nuclear-reactor-moon

    __

    What’s really humorous is that they don’t have one that can fit on a rocket, nor one that can fit on a lander so it can be ferried down to the surface of the Moon where it will sit in -400’F nights (that last for weeks) and 250’F days. Rotting. Or probably blowing up.

    Isn’t this funny?

    sealintheSelkirks

    Like

  30. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    All Ponzi schemes unravel; this unravelling will be epochal!
    U.S. Debt Crisis: $1 Trillion Added in 48 Days

    Like

    • sealintheselkirks's avatar sealintheselkirks says:

      Please change that comment to ‘The Demented Leaders of the USA seem incapable of learning the ‘Law of Unintended Consequences’ because, believe it or not, there are a lot of people in this country that DO understand what is going on. Remember, this country has 330,000,000+ people in a continent-wide chunk of land, far larger than the majority of other countries in both population and territory. Wouldn’t most of Europe fit into fucking Texas and California? Something like that…

      So if 1/8 of the population has a clue, and half of those truly get it (and I submit there are millions that do who are absolutely powerless), the numbers are pretty dang large. Not, of course, that it makes any difference in how a Fascist Oligarchy corporate state operates. Hence the reality that we are all FUCKED in the end and not fun sex but brutal rape.

      But then our Dear Leader likes rape, doesn’t he? Seeing others in pain is a bonus. And the rest of his cultish sycophants are too incompetent, vicious, greedy, or just plain fucking stupid to care about anything but their own wants. But then he appointed them…

      Empathy has gone right out the door, and their jesus would be appalled at what his followers have created don’t you think? I have a bumper sticker still on my old truck that says:

      GET REAL AS IF JESUS WOULD EVER OWN A GUN AND VOTE REPUBLICAN

      I caught a woman in a local grocery store parking lot once reading all my stickers. She turned and looked at me and said, pointing at it, “NOT MY JESUS.”

      I never found one that also said ‘Republican OR Democrat’ or I would have replaced it.

      __

      sealintheSelkirks

      Liked by 1 person

  31. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    All Ponzi schemes eventually pop and clearly the global economies debt levels are unsustainable.
    There can be no coordinated global action because the major players are at war with each other and don’t trust each other.

    ‘Greater Depression’ Triggered: What Happens After Debt Default | Doug Casey

    Like

  32. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    Incredible work from Alex and Glenn on the unfolding great unravelling!

    Alex Krainer: Economic Collapse & Civil War Fears in Europe

    Like

  33. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    “Subprime Auto Lender Collapse Delivers Blow to Risky Debt Market [US].

    “The sudden collapse of a Texas subprime car lender [Tricolor] is sending shock waves from border-town dealerships all the way to the upper echelons of Wall Street, ensnaring giants including JPMorgan Chase and BlackRock and raising concern that pain in the multibillion-dollar market for bundled auto loans is starting to mount.

    12th September 2025 Today’s Round-Up of Economic News • Climate and Economy

    Tricolor Bankruptcy: Subprime Auto Lender Collapse Delivers Blow to ABS Market – Bloomberg

    Like

  34. sealintheselkirks's avatar sealintheselkirks says:

    You do realize he has access to Ft. Knox, right? Who would try to stop the Orange menace Dictator DJT from grabbing a few truckloads? That’s where this country is heading…

    At least his Eastern European high-priced bought & paid for ‘escort’ of a wife’s crypto coin has crashed in value, like a rock tossed into a mine shaft. Last I read it was worth 25 cents!

    As has the latest of DJT’s crypto coins for that matter, but not until making a boatload of money for him before it became essentially worthless because a bunch of the wealthy bought them so they get ‘access’ to him as president.

    The most corrupt government in US history is going to financially kill this country dead. Along with installing a Fascist dictatorship that will last longer than this decrepit dementia figurehead will I’m sure.
    __

    And the way the economic indicators are flashing bright red I’d say that pretty soon the US is going to find itself in another Republican Great Depression of unknown depth. With more than double the population of 1929, and 60% of workers living paycheck to paycheck, and rising unemployment and maxed-out credit card use combined with an ever-exploding increases in food etc; with what you’ve posted, and other readings that I’ve skimmed through, all of it is painting a very grim picture.

    I don’t have much but I also don’t have much debt, either. House & property is free & clear except for the yearly property tax and I’m on the county’s ‘low income partially disable senior citizen’ program which has 60% of it frozen. Even with the constant increase in ‘valuation’ that happens yearly or even twice a year sometimes due to so many people buying homes from out of state raising the prices, (hideout homes in the mountains mostly I’m guessing), I’m able to survive. For a while at least. And I’m old and am not going to be alive all that much longer most likely.

    But the Regime in DC just made being homeless or houseless, including van lifers and old folks in RVs etc etc, literally federally illegal and subject to arrest and/or confiscation so when they get out of jail they have nothing. There are a LOT of people living in RVs and van etc, uncounted numbers of people. And the homeless counts are also always under-counted but they can’t sleep anywhere, either.

    Shit be fucked up in the USA, sailorman!

    sealintheSelkirks

    Liked by 1 person

  35. Kevin Hester's avatar Kevin Hester says:

    Charles Hugh Smith

    1h ·

    The consensus holds that central banks–the Federal Reserve in the US–will gradually inflate away the world’s rising debt burden while propping up assets and the economy with the usual bag of monetary magic: suppress interest rates so debt service costs ease, increase the money supply and credit to prop up asset bubbles in stocks and housing, and thereby generate growth in consumption via the elixir of “the wealth effect:” as assets loft higher, everyone feels richer and so they borrow and spend more.

    Well, not everyone, because only the top 10% own enough assets to feel “the wealth effect,” but since they account for 50% of all consumer spending, that’s enough to maintain the status quo, in which the bottom 90% lose ground (especially the bottom 60%) and the top 10% are doing splendidly.

    Should the bubble du jour pop, no worries, central banks will rush to the rescue as they have for 25 years, goosing money supply and credit, opening the floodgates of liquidity, pushing interest rates down so everyone and every entity can borrow and spend / speculate more, more, more.

    This is a nice story, and proponents have the past 25 years of history to back it up. But beneath the surface appeal of this story–a Hollywood ending every time, as the Fed will inflate another bubble, one after the other in an endless loop–there are stirrings in the deep that suggest the Everything Bubble is the last bubble of its kind, and attempts to inflate another bubble when this one pops will collapse the entire rickety contraption.

    In other words, everything is forever until it is no more. Let’s consider some points that speak to the nature of speculative bubbles.

    1. Speculative bubbles don’t require central banks increasing money supply and manipulating interest rates. Recency bias leads us to imagine that central bank policies inflate and pop speculative bubbles via monetary levers, but the colossal South Seas Bubble in 1720 that popped with such devastating consequences arose and fell in the pre-central bank era. The madness of crowds–or more specifically, the greed-driven madness of greedy crowds is the core driver of speculative frenzies / bubbles.

    2. Confidence is the foundation of speculative frenzies. Yes, confidence, as in a con. Back in 1720, the South Seas Company was supported by the establishment, and so confidence was high that it was a can’t lose proposition. The riches skimmed by early investors encouraged this confidence.

    Today, confidence that the Fed will rush to the rescue should the Everything Bubble pop is high, as is the confidence that the AI Bubble isn’t a bubble because AI is going to change everything and that transformation will be immensely profitable–if not for the gold miners, then for those selling the miners picks and shovels.

    3. Quasi-religious fervor, confidence, staggering gains and speculative frenzies all meld into one overflowing river, sweeping all before it. The primary force here is the belief that this isn’t irrational, or speculative–it’s all based on solid facts. That this was the exact same belief that powered bubbles in 1720, 1925-1929, 1998-2000 and 2004-2008 is brushed aside, for as we all know, this time it’s different. Of course it is, but perhaps not in the way that the consensus anticipates.

    Just as a break from all the fun and games, let’s consider a chart of M2 money supply, generally conceded as the driver of stocks rising, and compare it to GDP–a measure of economic expansion–and the S&P 500 stock index (SPX). More– https://www.oftwominds.com/blogsept25/last-bubble9-25.html

    Like

  36. sealintheselkirks's avatar sealintheselkirks says:

    Dang, and I was hoping for my slice of the pie to arrive at some point in the form of a nice big fat check from our Great Leader DJT the Dictator who is saving us taxpayers all this money from dismantling the federal government.

    And GDP is a jokes since selling bombs and missiles to drop on GAZA is considered a ‘boost’ to GDP…

    sealintheSelkirks

    Liked by 1 person

  37. sealintheselkirks's avatar sealintheselkirks says:

    WTF? And how is this going to keep the US supplied with intelligent trained workers, like the Koreans specialists that were just hijacked from the $5 billion Georgia battery plants by ICE Gestapo and jailed (though they were here LEGALLY), that are NOT coming back to finish getting the plant up & running because there are NO US workers qualified or skilled enough to take their place. It sounds like they do NOT want come back to the US and KIA has so far shut the entire plant down costing the State of Georgia (a big DJT state) thousands of jobs that were coming once it went online…and a boatload of tax revenue.

    So now these highly skilled workers, H-1B Visa holders, are going to have to pay $100,000 to enter the country??? Is this neo-liberal bloated fuckwit stupid? Oh wait! Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett of Texas just released his 1965 SAT scores…and DJT was NOT in the upper 50 percentile. Oops, guess it was daddy’s $2 million bribe that got you that diploma, eh?

    But this…WTF???

    Trump adds $100,000 fee for skilled worker visa applicants

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2zk4l8g26o?utm
    __
    sealintheSelkirks

    Liked by 1 person

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Kevin Hester

Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water.  I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.

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Kevin Hester, Dropping Anchor in an Exponential World
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