On the Verge of Starvation

“By 2027 the world could be facing a 214 trillion calorie deficit, says Sara Menker, founder and chief executive of Gro Intelligence, an agricultural data technology company.”
We Have Five Years To Save Ourselves From Climate Change, Harvard Scientist Says

“We have exquisite information about what that state is, because we have a paleo record going back millions of years, when the earth had no ice at either pole. There was almost no temperature difference between the equator and the pole,” said James Anderson, a Harvard University professor of atmospheric chemistry best known for establishing that chlorofluorocarbons were damaging the Ozone Layer.”

“The ocean was running almost 10ºC warmer all the way to the bottom than it is today,” Anderson said of this once-and-future climate, “and the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere would have meant that storm systems would be violent in the extreme, because water vapor, which is an exponential function of water temperature, is the gasoline that fuels the frequency and intensity of storm systems.”

“People have the misapprehension that we can recover from this state just by reducing carbon emissions, Anderson said in an appearance at the University of Chicago. Recovery is all but impossible, he argued, without a World War II-style transformation of industry—an acceleration of the effort to halt carbon pollution and remove it from the atmosphere, and a new effort to reflect sunlight away from the earth’s poles.”

“This has to be done, Anderson added, within the next five years.” Oops, Published Jan 15, 2018

“The chance that there will be any permanent ice left in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero,” Anderson said, with 75 to 80 percent of permanent ice having melted already in the last 35 years.

“Can we lose 75-80 percent of permanent ice and recover? The answer is no.”

Not mentioned in Guy’s latest work is that as CO2 levels in the atmosphere increase, the nutritional value of the crops decreases, in a double whammy. I doubt that Sara Manker’s analysis factors in the non-linearity we are witnessing in the climate system, nor the war in Ukraine, that will drastically lower its food production this year and for the foreseeable future.
Rising CO2 is reducing nutritional value of food, impacting ecosystems.

“Things are far worse than you are being told.  Over the past few months, I have been carefully documenting facts that show that global food production is going to be way down in 2022.  Unfortunately, most people out there don’t seem to understand that the food that isn’t being grown in 2022 won’t be on our store shelves in 2023.  We are potentially facing an absolutely unprecedented worldwide food crisis next year, but the vast majority of the population doesn’t seem very alarmed about this.”
A List Of 33 Things We Know About The Coming Food Shortages

Abstract
“In the 1972 bestseller Limits to Growth (LtG), the authors concluded that, if global society kept pursuing economic growth, it would experience a decline in food production, industrial output, and ultimately population, within this century. The LtG authors used a system dynamics model to study interactions between global variables, varying model assumptions to generate different scenarios. Previous empirical-data comparisons since then by Turner showed closest alignment with a scenario that ended in collapse. This research constitutes a data update to LtG, by examining to what extent empirical data aligned with four LtG scenarios spanning a range of technological, resource, and societal assumptions. The research benefited from improved data availability since the previous updates and included a scenario and two variables that had not been part of previous comparisons. The two scenarios aligning most closely with observed data indicate a halt in welfare, food, and industrial production over the next decade or so, which puts into question the suitability of continuous economic growth as humanity’s goal in the twenty-first century.”

“Let’s fast-forward nearly four years to an article published August 8th, 2022 in Australia’s leading daily newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald. Titled, ‘We’re in trouble’: Australia risks food insecurity, expert warns, the article from more than eight months ago includes this line, quoted from the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group: “Only about five days’ worth of perishable food exists in the supply chain at any given time.”
Science Snippets: On the Verge of Starvation

Edit on 11/07/024
“The article in Reuters closes with a quote from a land analyst at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit: “In 2021, the government warned that climate change was the biggest medium to long term threat to our food security. This analysis suggests that it is the biggest risk now, not at some far off point in the future.”
subscribers can comment on Guy’ personal subtack below
Denial and Lies Reign As Climate Change Threatens Food Supply

About Kevin Hester

I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.