“The rockets falling in the Middle East are sending shockwaves straight to your dinner plate. When the U.S.-led military intervention in Iran escalated, most expected an energy crisis. They watched the oil markets and the gasoline pumps. And indeed prices have soared, with the Brent barrel hovering at around $105 and U.S. gas prices topping $4 for the first time since 2022.”
But the real casualty of this war may be far more insidious, and it starts in the soil.”
“Our modern food system is based on a foundation of natural gas, and now that foundation is cracking. It’s becoming clearer as the war drags on that the world is bound to face a historic global fertiliser shortage. With the Strait of Hormuz restricted by the Iranian military, shipments of critical agricultural chemicals have effectively stopped.”
“The result is a cascading failure across the global supply chain. This bottleneck is pushing food prices toward record highs not seen since the 1970s energy crisis, threatening millions of people with severe food insecurity.”
The above three paragraphs from ZME Science: Why The War in Iran Could Trigger the Worst Global Food Crisis Since the 1970s
All of the above is the best-case scenario, Professor McPherson and I believe the predicament is an existential threat, to us all and especially to our complex industrial civilization.
Professor McPhersons video analysis below with all of the verifying links following.
“The first two paragraphs of the story at HR News provide a daunting overview: “On March 27, 2026, Stanislav Krapivnik — a former U.S. Army officer, supply chain executive, and military-political analyst now based in Russia — gave his assessment of two converging crises: an attack on a key Russian position on the Baltic coast, and what he describes as a permanent or near-permanent collapse of Gulf energy infrastructure.”
“His conclusion is that these developments, stacked on top of an already-disrupted global fertilizer supply chain, will produce a food crisis by mid-summer 2026 — not as a possibility, but as a predictable consequence of conditions already in place.”
The above two paragraphs and video from this Substack post from my friend and colleague Professor Guy McPherson. Means of Extinction: Global Mass Starvation this Summer
I first encountered former US Army Officer Stanislav Krapivnik’s work via Danny Haipong’s YouTube channel.
I trust him.
“Russian born, former US Army officer, software engineer and director of Supply Chain in oil-gas services and EPC. At present, military-political analyst, part time journalist, on various Russian and international TV programs and podcasts.”
The following, embedded link will take you to Stanislav Krapivnik’s Substack channel.
Readers of this blog will know that Guy and I have covered this issue previously.
“By 2027 the world could be facing a 214 trillion calorie deficit, says Sara Menker, founder and chief executive of Gro Intelligence, an agricultural data technology company.” On the Verge of Starvation
“Disaster preparedness expert, author and U.S. Air Force veteran Christopher Armitage issued a dire warning recently that the supply chain disruptions caused by the U.S. war against Iran had set the United States on track for a “total collapse” within six months, with the bleak conditions only exacerbated by the Trump administration’s cuts to social safety net programs.”
US barreling towards ‘total collapse’ within six months if Iran war continues:
One final note: Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapse
Overview
“This study considers the relationship between a global systemic banking, monetary and solvency crisis and its implications for the real-time flow of goods and services in the globalised economy. It outlines how contagion in the financial system could set off semi-autonomous contagion in supply-chains globally, even where buyers and sellers are linked by solvency, sound money and bank intermediation. The cross-contagion between the financial system and trade/production networks is mutually reinforcing.”
“It is argued that in order to understand systemic risk in the globalised economy, account must be taken of how growing complexity (interconnectedness, interdependence and the speed of processes), the de-localisation of production and concentration within key pillars of the globalised economy have magnified global vulnerability and opened up the possibility of a rapid and large-scale collapse.”
Embedded in the hyper-link below is a March 29, 2015 video discussion, where Guy and I discuss supply chain breakdown
Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapse
How much is the Iran war costing American consumers? We track the extra cost paid for gasoline and diesel since the conflict began on February 28, 2026. We use actual prices that are updated daily. Fuel costs are just one part of a war’s consequences, but they come directly out of Americans’ pockets. These costs are rising everyday.
$20,541,000,000 at time of publishing.
Iran War Energy Cost Tracker
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Asalamu Alaikum, Amandla ngawhetu, Tiocfaidh ár lá.
I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.
Kevin Hester 
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