Wet Bulb Temperature Soon to Become Leading Cause of Death

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As our Abrupt Climate Change Catastrophe becomes more extreme the leading cause of death on the planet will be humans hitting their   Wet Bulb Temperature.

Robertscribbler has written about this phenomenon here:

Never-before-seen high temperatures and high humidity are resulting in thousands of heat injuries and hundreds of heat deaths across India. In some places, wet bulb readings appear to be approaching 35 C — a level of latent heat never endured by humans before fossil fuel burning forced global temperatures to rapidly warm. A reading widely-recognized as the limit of human physical endurance and one whose more frequent excession would commit the human race to enduring an increasing number of episodes of killing heat. A boundary that scientists like Dr. James Hansen warned would be exceeded if a human-forced warming of the world was not halted.’  Article continues.

Wet Bulb Near 35 C — Heatwave Mass Casualties Strike India Amidst Never-Before-Seen High Temperatures.’

Short cut to calculating Wet Bulb Temperature

“In a recent study with Matt Huber, we showed that it doesn’t take that many degrees of global warming to permit peak heat summertime heat stress to (occasionally) become unsurvivable, in many parts of the world that are currently highly populated.”

“We came to this conclusion by considering a meteorological quantity called the wet-bulb temperature. You measure this quantity with a normal thermometer that has a damp cloth covering the bulb. It is always lower than the usual or “dry-bulb” temperature; how much lower depends on the humidity. At 100% humidity (in a cloud or fog) they match. In Sydney and Melbourne, even during the hottest weather, the wet-bulb usually peaks in the low 20’s C. The highest values in the world are about 30-31C, during the worst heat/humidity events in India, the Amazon, and a few other very humid places.
Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC) – The University of New South Wales Sydney NSW  Australia, paper shared here:  ‘What is Wet Bulb temperature?

Orange – Heat stroke probable, Red – Heat stroke imminent

Heat Index

I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.

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Posted in Habitat, Rapid Climate Change, Warnings
84 comments on “Wet Bulb Temperature Soon to Become Leading Cause of Death
  1. Kevin Hester says:

    Mamals especially will be suseptable to hitting their wet bulb temps. Sadly, that’s us as well, not just the 200 species that go extinct every day.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/07/falling-out-of-trees-dozens-of-dead-possums-blamed-on-extreme-heat-stress?fbclid=IwAR3sCd2Z8f7Z6q6Up0S755TSEk5RxbVA2aUN3tSecfoK52HTJnKtZtqso74

    Like

  2. Kevin Hester says:

    Around the 12 minute mark in this chilling ( pardon the pun) episode of Radio Ecoshock Alex’s guest discusses nuclear power stations having to shut down in heatwaves in Russia, so much for Nuclear being an alternative to fossil fuels.

    Like

  3. KEVIN NOTE: my dial-up disconnected while this was posting and didn’t do anything when I re-connected. The page was froze. Please delete if it doubled!

    This may be what knocked me down three weeks ago. I’m on the ‘dry’ side of Washington State but the humidity in these mountains has been abnormally high even with the somewhat cooler temperatures (compared to last year). Haven’t cracked 38C/100F here yet but I’ve been pretty close. It was around 35C/92F and maybe above 50% when I dropped after coming back inside after cutting firebreaks for a couple of hours. Today it’s 32.5C/90′ in the shade and 23%…but I was cutting firebreaks last night after dark! I learned my lesson no doubt. Stay the hell out of the heat ’cause I’m getting too old for that shite!!!

    But having to breathe in 53C/123’F in India in JUNE? Look up the city of Chennai and the drought and water crisis they are in. Trainloads of 2.5 mil litres of water each being brought in daily, and all the reservoirs are dry. Combined with “a daily water deficit of at least 200 million litres” and the monsoons (IF they happen on time, no telling with the crazy Jet Stream) is months away.

    I’m sort of guessing that area of the planet may be where the Great Dying that is coming will probably start. Too many humans, too hot, not enough water, and radical Wet Bulb Effects are already in progress.

    Here’s a thought. The Colorado River Aqueduct comes from Arizona to Riverside SoCal. I have a friend that just drove a Uhaul to Salton Sea (people moving from here to there no less paid him to!) and stopping for the night in Ridgecrest where the 7,1 earthquake and hundreds of aftershocks continue to hit. Said the motion of the ground was causing seasickness and the locals in the motel and local restaurants were very, very nervous. The aqueduct is stretched across east to west maybe a hundred miles south. What do you think is going to happen when a major quake hits (it’s overdue) and suddenly there 14% less water coming in? Maybe the Federal Government will be hauling trains…oh wait the railroads get destroyed by large quakes. And the roads. And it’s getting hotter earlier in SoCal these days…might have to let all those lawns in the desert go, eh? There I go, being the cynical surfer dude again!

    sealintheSelkirks

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Kevin Hester says:

    Another wide ranging interview from my co-host on Nature Bats Last on PRN.FM
    Around the hour mark Guy discusses Wet Bulb Temperatures.

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  5. Kevin Hester says:

    “Intolerable bouts of extreme humidity and heat which could threaten human survival are on the rise across the world, suggesting that worst-case scenario warnings about the consequences of global heating are already occurring, a new study has revealed.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/08/climate-change-global-heating-extreme-heat-humidity?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR3N4L4eCroPhXKoup4iUrhjxlA0Re-XzrTg2fm6zCFMhqfJyPX_RC4-9Pw

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  6. Kevin Hester says:

    Wet Bulb temps are discussed below;

    Like

    • And it just keeps getting more and more scary, doesn’t it? And is it me? But seems like this reality is running at us faster and faster. This came up yesterday:

      10C Above Baseline

      https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/05/22/10c-above-baseline/

      Earth at 10°C above pre-industrial is unimaginable. It’s a deadly horrifying thought, but as shall be explained herein, it should not be dismissed out of hand.
      ________

      It has been raining here for two weeks at 49’N in the Selkirks. Since June 2nd it has rained 15 days. Mostly T-storm blasts, heavy overcast days, windstorms blowing my 30 meter red firs & ponderosa to 60′ of arc. Incredibly heavy deluge rains, too, often all night. In between, the few sunny days, there have been temps up to 81F/28C. Hottest April on record last month really does bode very ill for this coming fire season because, bluntly, I can’t keep up with the undergrowth’s growth the last few weeks! Everything stays so wet (night temp down to 3C) that pushing the mower just clogs it with wet everything. Still doing firebreak clearing, too, when it’s dry enough. Using a chainsaw when everything is wet I find seriously stupid… But then I think about this Pandemic and realize it is going to rip through fire camps and decimate the crews so I have to keep plugging away at it.

      Too many people I know, including my oldest stepdaughter, did or still do fight fires for a living and I know how crowded together those big tent camps get. All it takes is one asymptomatic carrier coming in. Oh my.

      Then there was that monster hurricane blasting Bangladesh the other day before the season started…and, oh, the Arctic:

      It Hit 80 Degrees in the Arctic This Week
      https://earther.gizmodo.com/it-hit-80-degrees-in-the-arctic-this-week-1843606717
      AT LINK: video: Nothing to see here. GlF: Climate Change Institute

      This story will provide important context for the headline, and I encourage you to read it—but really, the headline tells you what you need to know: It was 80 degrees Fahrenheit above the Arctic Circle this week.

      A little farther south, in Siberia—you know, the region of world we reference when we want to connote something cold—it was 86 degrees Fahrenheit. Arctic sea ice in the neighboring Kara Sea took the deepest May nose dive ever recorded. Oh, and random swaths of the region are on fire. Things are extremely wrong.
      __________

      This is bad. This is real, real bad. And all we get to do it watch it come. Sucks to be us, eh Kevin?

      sealintheSelkirks

      Liked by 1 person

    • Wed 17June

      Since 2May I have had some amount of rain fall for 36 days!!! Still going, too, from deluge t-storms to all night rainfall to just daytime showers to squalls blowing in. That’s counting today’s massive T-storm at 4pm after the smaller one at 11am actually missed me as I watched it go by n/w to s/e around 11am.

      Hot bright sunshine blue sky not a cloud in the sky all morning. I put out the cannabis plants into their garden area, then this wall of dirty dark gray front wall came barreling in but was just to the south of this property by just a few miles. It went by with bolts flying and thunder booming and gray swaths of rain falling from the mass. And I was still in sunshine.

      The one that hit in the late afternoon at 4pm was a freaking doozy. This is the dry mountains of Washington State, I’m 300 miles from the Cascades across the very dry Washington Scablands, and it’s not supposed to be 60% humidity here. Bolts blowing out of the sky everywhere again, major deluge rains, and I beat it home from Chewelah by 10 minutes which gave me enough time to lash things down.

      This is nuts. Back to sunshine and above 28C today. Not quite as hot as last year but I’ve already hit 34/35C and that was in early May…

      Faster and faster we swirl around the drain, Kevin. I’m getting dizzy!

      I may have already posted this somewhere on this site but…don’t remember so:

      Living With Global Warming

      https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/06/16/living-with-global-warming/

      I modeled mathematically the thermal imbalance of our biosphere, which we call global warming, so as to gain my own quantitative understanding of the interplay of the two major effects that give rise to this phenomenon. This is a “toy model,” an abstraction of a very complicated planetary phenomenon that teams of scientists using supercomputers have been laboring for decades to enumerate in its many details, and to predict its likely course into the future. (continues at link)

      sealintheSelkirks

      Liked by 1 person

  7. More stuff you may have not read:

    In Dozens of Cities East of the Mississippi, Winter Never Really Happened
    Something called the Arctic oscillation helped keep the polar vortex at bay. And then there’s climate change.

    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/04032020/winter-southeast-united-states-polar-vortex-warming

    _____

    Fading Winters, Hotter Summers Make the Northeast America’s Fastest Warming Region
    Connecticut’s average temperature has risen 2 degrees Celsius since the late 19th century, double the average for the Lower 48 states.

    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26062020/hotter-summers-northeast-united-states-warming
    ______

    This one seems…optimistic. I expect it will happen much quicker thinking about how the term ‘exponential’ just isn’t a concept the human mind grasps very well:

    50 Years From Now, Many Densely Populated Parts of the World Could be Too Hot for Humans
    Unless steps are taken to check global warming, up to 3 billion people will find themselves in areas too warm for human comfort, a new study finds.

    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/04052020/hot-climate-niches-50-years-human-population
    _____

    ‘Genocidal Negligence’: New Democratic Climate Action Plan Criticized as Woefully Inadequate
    The roadmap “underscores the establishment’s continuing refusal to address this existential crisis with the scale, speed, and intensity required to ensure a future for our next generation.”

    https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/06/30/genocidal-negligence-new-democratic-climate-action-plan-criticized-woefully

    _____

    Locust Swarms, Some 3 Times the Size of New York City, Are Eating Their Way Across Two Continents
    Climate change is worsening the largest plague of the crop-killing insects in 50 years, threatening famine in Africa, the Middle East and the Indian subcontinent.

    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/20032020/locust-swarms-climate-change
    _____

    Yeah, as if we need more evidence! Kevin, I’ve been hit by another t-storm this afternoon, after a whole 4 days without rain. Five days since the last massive lightning storm/heavy deluge downpours. Nobody has ever seen anything like this last couple of months of rain. It just DOESN’T do this here. So far there hasn’t been any of the predicted lightning, and I haven’t heard any thunder off in the distance but the music has been pretty loud in the house today. Maybe around dark, the t-cells are obviously building out the window and getting darker as I write.

    sealintheSelkirks

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Kevin Hester says:

    “Humans’ ability to efficiently shed heat has enabled us to range over every continent, but a wet-bulb temperature (TW) of 35°C marks our upper physiological limit, and much lower values have serious health and productivity impacts. Climate models project the first 35°C TW occurrences by the mid-21st century. However, a comprehensive evaluation of weather station data shows that some coastal subtropical locations have already reported a TW of 35°C and that extreme humid heat overall has more than doubled in frequency since 1979. Recent exceedances of 35°C in global maximum sea surface temperature provide further support for the validity of these dangerously high TW values. We find the most extreme humid heat is highly localized in both space and time and is correspondingly substantially underestimated in reanalysis products. Our findings thus underscore the serious challenge posed by humid heat that is more intense than previously reported and increasingly severe.”

    https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/19/eaaw1838?fbclid=IwAR2s2-jsilU_TnM199Na0LV73WMbIcTaDIq-mgkvvYsQHINsHMhEZA7UOwI

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    • Yeah, well, I’m really glad I’m on the dry side of Washington State at this point because my thermometers read 106F/roughly 42C by 4:30 in the afternoon. It was take your breath away hot. It’s on the northside of the woodshed under the eves, no direct sunlight, so I’m assuming air temp not sunlight on skin temp which felt much worse. Yesterday was 103F, the day before 101F. At least the humidity is pretty low…and the nighttime temps start kicking in as soon as the sun drops behind the Huckleberry Range to the west.

      Last night I was out watering my cannabis garden at 1am. Trying to not shock the girls with the quite cold well water, so I’m letting them cool down for a few hours beforehand. The fabric grow pots I make are drying out but they are doing wonderfully well as long as I put lots of water in to get them through the next day.

      It was about 60’F last night, felt wonderful, and all my east-facing windows go open as it gets dark because this property is on the west-facing south side corner part of the ridge of an east to west heading down into the valley creek-fed canyon, and the cooler air starts trickling in after dark. The house cools down by midnight and keeps that air in for most of the day if I get up early enough to close up the windows. I’ve been trying to do that lately!

      Today’s inside temp hit 79’F but only because of an old style metal-body swamp cooler/floor fan in the music room facing the front room that also had a ceiling fan going, plus the dojo/meditation added-on room on the house’s n/e corner that opens into the music room had a big floor fan blowing air towards it, too. Upstairs in the office is miserable, southside of the house and blasted by direct sunshine all day. Even with an identical swamp cooler going and a Bioaire tower fan on the other side of the office blowing at it the room was not habitable without a wet towel around my neck. I stayed downstairs all day… Never had AC anywhere I have lived, always have used fans and swamp coolers.

      We went to extreme heat danger notices yesterday, but this evening they were gone from the weather site! I have no idea WTF is going on as it’s now saying a high of 91’F tomorrow. After 106 today? Highly unlikely!

      Okay, about all I can take up here because it still is pretty dang warm. Inside thermometer says 27C…the cooler night air hasn’t made it in yet. Back downstairs to the more comfortable environment.

      seal

      Liked by 1 person

    • Well dang, it’s already becoming too hot for me! It’s been…35-40C+ this summer after a seriously strange sopping wet Spring that started in freaking January at my elevation. But haven’t had rain in months now. And yesterday I got slammed but not by rain!

      A freaky howling windstorm came through in the morning with 50mph sustained at least, with higher gusts. Weather.com was calling for 48mph but I think it was higher here in these mountains. Canyon effect channeling and increasing the wind speed I’m sure. The 3 meter + conifers were bending through 30′ of arc, broken limbs and twigs and needles flying sideways, and major dust devils whirling across the property. Big dust devils! Mini tornadoes.

      The gusts just shredded tarps into tatters, picked up and lofted everything possible into the air (too much grit in the eyes, had to put on safety goggles), and the wind was trying to lift the roof off the house which I need to get up on and check today along with the shop roof. Even blew a couple of my cannabis girls over in their pots, poor dears! Power went out immediately, about 11am after the initial wall of wind slammed into the area, and that was not just up here in the mountains. Ate soup and crackers on a butane camp stove reading by camp light last night sitting in the kitchen with the window open to suck out the residual gasses…

      The weirdest thing about this storm was it came down from Canada. Some off the wall low pressure front racing over the border heading south/southwest. Huge black/dark gray cloud masses brought extremely low humidity so an instant Red Flag Alert for catastrophic wildfire danger came out, and there were fire crews everywhere battling downed power line arcing over the entire my county. So many that the electric utility didn’t have enough people to send out which wasn’t good news when a fire truck went screaming up the dirt road past me and stopped within hearing distance. Then my neighbor called saying there was a bunch of fires on the next property that has been being butchered of its trees this last month and one went over taking the power line to the house so the new owners were in deep stinky with it (trees need other trees to survive windstorms after all!), and she said it was arcing and snapping like a snake with a broke back so bad the fire guys couldn’t get close to it. There were no crews left to come shut it off…and the winds were freaking screaming through. Looked around my house and wondered what I would be able to save… in the three minutes it would have taken to burn me down from there if the fire would have run…probably just the dog and the backpack/tent/bag Earthquake bag I’ve kept since the Alaskan quake evacuated us off my beach as a kid…

      Didn’t happen. I’m happy about that. It did keep heading down into the valley but n/w to me instead of due south into me. My retired biologist neighbors were directly between me and the fire, and his wife called again and let me know it shifted directions. They were out watching it across the creek canyon…

      So it’s been so hot here for months that a huge cold front got sucked down from Canada. How odd is that? I expect (and hope for) those Canadian ‘Yukon Express’ blizzards in winter because it brings incredibly light powder. But this is September and the wind pattern is only from the s/w or west. Always. And humidity has been higher this year, no doubt about that, but this drop was radical.

      The BBC article pretty much sucked to read by the way, and I moved this far north for more than one reason 16 years ago. And Covid does nothing but make it all so much worse. People with AC are breathing in everybody in the building’s exhalations. All it takes is one asymptomatic carrier…bad enough in summer but what happens when it starts snowing? Of course it will get cold and the heat will go on and people will congregate where they can to be warm and….oh my hell.

      sealintheSelkirks

      Like

  9. Kevin Hester says:

    Sam Carana

    TEMPERATURES THREATEN TO BECOME UNBEARABLE

    Many people could face unbearable temperatures soon.

    Temperature anomalies on land in the Northern Hemisphere (red) are spread out much wider and they are more than 0.5°C higher than global land+ocean anomalies (blue).

    Red and blue trends are added to show the potential rise due to El Niño, changes in aerosols and feedbacks kicking in more strongly as tipping points get crossed.

    The second image shows two such tipping points. Crossing the latent heat tipping point threatens to cause the methane hydrates tipping point to be crossed.

    Keep in mind that above images show temperature anomalies from the 20th century average. As an earlier post points out, when using a 1750 baseline and when using ocean air temperatures and higher Arctic anomalies, we may already have crossed both the 1.5°C and the 2°C thresholds that politicians at the Paris Agreement pledged would not get crossed.

    Also keep in mind that there are further tipping points. As discussed in an earlier post, at least ten tipping points apply to the Arctic.

    From the post ‘Temperatures threaten to become unbearable’, at:

    https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/09/temperatures-threaten-to-become-unbearable.html?fbclid=IwAR2gRDrcinMyYOvjcV6TeRYIzlzo6VCm9Jgs_Ob49lW1YPEOuXi3SvfyE_4

    Like

    • Yeah, there has been a couple of articles out recently on this that I’ve read, from other sources. CommonDreams had one I think, and maybe another was on InsideClimateNews. Sure isn’t something to look forward to as I’m just not a ‘desert heat’ kind of guy. Too much the old surfer I guess. When the thermometer reads 90’F/32C I’m kind of looking for shade to sit in with a book and a jug of cold water (or chilled sun tea!).

      That recent 50’C/121’F temperature in Los Angeles a week ago…Woodland Hills in the Valley. How the hell does one survive that without AC? And in a city with all that heat-soaking reflective asphalt and concrete glaring it back at you? It’s like living in Arizona, millions of people in Phoenix and when the power goes out, if it happens in summer, they’re all freaking dead within a couple of days! Along with those incredibly stupid cotton fields they are growing there in the desert…madness!!

      The hubris of our species, eh?

      I’ve been talking about the total evacuation of SoCal/AZ/Nevada/Utah for a long time based on the science I was reading, but those figures were expected to be decades in the future. Somehow I don’t think that applies at this point; it’s closer than that.

      I’ve never lived in a house that had AC. And when I walk into a building that has it I…don’t like it. I don’t know if it’s the machine smell to the air or what, but I just don’t like it. If it’s that hot…don’t live there is how I look at it. Here in these dry mountains I use swamp coolers and fans which at least doesn’t change the air, just wets it down and moves it around so the body can cool down better. It does get damn hot on this side of the state, no doubt about it, but AC feels like it’s shocking my body when I walk into somewhere with it running, and then it shocks again when I walk back outside. Adapted somewhat to the heat seems like a better idea for some reason. And, as I said, too hot I find a spot to sit!

      Temps went to 82F/28C yesterday, even under the smoke cloud which is thinning a bit and starting to let in more heat. It is, after all, September here and what were the normal patterns of weather…aren’t valid any longer. It stays hotter and dryer longer now, into October and even into early December some years. I’ve seen the changes in the 16 years I’ve been here, my retired biologist neighbor has seen massive shift in the 50 he’s been here! He used to talk on NBL about it many years ago…

      sealintheSelkirks

      Liked by 1 person

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Kevin Hester

Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water.  I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.

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