It is imperative that people understand the exponential nature of where our climate catastrophe is and how it will quickly unravel.
We were lied to about the ‘safety’ of a 2C temperature increase, when in fact 2C was always going to trigger a multitude of “Tipping points” that would ensure the unraveling of the bio-sphere that all of the complex life on this planet depends.
It is important to remember that there is a 10 to 30 year lag between the emission of carbon and when we can see the consequences manifest.
Sixty-three percent of all human-generated carbon emissions have been produced in the last 25 years.
Myself and Professor Guy McPherson will be touring NZ in November 2016 giving the people of New Zealand mine and Professor McPherson’s perspective on what we are calling ” The Great Unraveling”.
Facebook Event here;
Brilliant video on Tipping points from Joe Tyndall below;
Climate Change: Beyond the Tipping Point – Joe Tyndall
I’m editing this link on the 20/10/2018 to add this important presentation from PaulBeckwith.net
I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.
Kevin Hester 
Another day, another feedbackloop.
https://mailchi.mp/climatenewsnetwork/erosion-may-be-carbon-source-not-sink?e=04c79ce326
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Fulfilling ‘Feedback Loop’ Fears, New Study Shows Melting Ice Could Spell Disaster Faster Than Previously Thought;
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/04/24/fulfilling-feedback-loop-fears-new-study-shows-melting-ice-could-spell-disaster?utm_term=Fulfilling+%27Feedback+Loop%27+Fears%2C+New+Study+Shows+Melting+Ice+Could+Spell+Disaster+Faster+Than+Previously+Thought&utm_campaign=News+%2526+Views+%7C+New+Study+Fulfills+Climate+%27Feedback+Loop%27+Fears&utm_content=email&utm_source=Act-On+Software&utm_medium=email&cm_mmc=Act-On+Software-_-email-_-News+%2526+Views+%7C+New+Study+Fulfills+Climate+%27Feedback+Loop%27+Fears-_-Fulfilling+%27Feedback+Loop%27+Fears%2C+New+Study+Shows+Melting+Ice+Could+Spell+Disaster+Faster+Than+Previously+Thought
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“The tiny particles from the fires lingered in the Northern Hemisphere’s atmosphere for a month, each molecule of black carbon trapping 3,200 times more heat than CO2 over a 20-year span.”
Wow, how’s that for a feedback loop?
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/4/24/1759260/-Expect-abnormally-high-ice-loss-from-Greenland-in-2018-Melting-is-feeding-on-itself-scientists-say
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“Methane emissions from lakes in the northern hemisphere could almost double over the next 50 years because of a novel “feedback loop” say scientists.”
Another day, another feedback loop;
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-43990403#
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Do the math;
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Another feedback loop;
http://today.oregonstate.edu/news/streams-may-emit-more-carbon-dioxide-warmer-climate
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Another day, another feedback loop or Black Swan, call it what you will!
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/28/invisible-scum-on-sea-cuts-co2-exchange-with-air-by-up-to-50?CMP=share_btn_fb
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We have to be careful here, in characterising such research. There is nothing in the article that suggests the scum microlayer is caused by warming, or is likely to be made worse by warming. So not a feedback loop. Also, there is nothing in the article which says how this affects atmospheric CO2 concentration, if at all. It is restricting exchange of CO2, which goes both ways. So I don’t think we should read too much into it, at this stage, at least not so far as climate change is concerned.
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“But the general gist of the study is considerably more ominous: not only have we discovered a climate tipping point, but we’ve spotted it after the system has probably already flipped into a new regime.”
https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/06/barents-sea-seems-to-have-crossed-a-climate-tipping-point/
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Antarctic oceans now emitting carbon is a classic feedback loop.
http://www.washington.edu/news/2018/08/14/diving-robots-find-antarctic-winter-seas-exhale-surprising-amounts-of-carbon-dioxide/
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There is no mention of feedback, in the article. Data were sketchy before; this is really just measuring the carbon transfer accurately for the first time. One of the researchers also mentioned that the outgassing is not suprising, though the magnitude of it is. So why do you mention that this is a “classic feedback loop”?
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Agreeing with Mike — this is new data, not necessarily new emissions. Gotta keep the facts straight and the logic correct.
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The quintesential tipping point.
https://www.thenation.com/article/tropical-forests-are-flipping-from-storing-carbon-to-releasing-it/
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“Lister told Truthout that “methane emissions [in the Arctic] are already a severe risk,” and that he and Dr. MacCracken’s UN paper shows that once temperatures started rising they would be largely unstoppable due to the interacting nature of the feedback mechanisms.”
Dahr Jamail steps up to the plate and confronts the issue of feedback loops in our climate crisis and how rapidly the effects will kick in. Time now for the large NGO’s to face the reality of our predicament.
If everything holds together Dahr and I will be touring Aotearoa NZ together in July next year after he launches his latest book “The End of Ice”. He will be touring the US and Australia also keep an eye out on our Facadebook walls and via the Truthout website.
I’ll be discussing these issues with Paul Beckwith in tomorrows episode of Nature Bats Last on PRN.FM. Dahr will be my guest again in January when the book is released.
I
“One of the greatest shortcomings of the human species is it’s inability to understand the exponential function” Albert Bartlett.
https://truthout.org/articles/how-feedback-loops-are-driving-runaway-climate-change/
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Todays tipping point comes to you from Scotland;
http://www.thebigwobble.org/2018/11/another-tipping-point-breached-salmon.html?fbclid=IwAR07FU4DP311eHizlJMTXvXccAPMfMsKTW1zuAsGtCPeCP3920o8HeJqXDo
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A sad quote from that article, “Absolutely there’s a crisis in salmon fishing.”
What about the crisis for the salmon population? Who cares about a pastime!
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Possibly the feedback loop that concerns me the most is the albedo feedback loop associated with the loss of sea ice and the potential for a 50 gigatonne release of methane from the ESAS.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/20/risks-of-domino-effect-of-tipping-points-greater-than-thought-study-says?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR22Dzify8QJRy8V0u1WiuD2Gvc0aDEaFz6mdZ0X2OYc5eCqs9FHu1r9DEY
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Here’s a bit more info or Arctic feedback loops for anyone interested;
https://climatetippingpoints.info/2016/10/21/arctic-sea-ice-and-positive-feedback-loops/
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Every feedback loop had a tipping point which was crossed when they began.
Feedback loops once started is incredibly hard or impossible to stop once started.
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I’m sure I commented on this before but I don’t think that statement is true (that every feedback loop was started by crossing some tipping point). For example, any increase in temperature would cause some extra melting of Arctic sea ice, which causes a bit more heat to be absorbed by darker liquid water, but what was the tipping point which started that feedback loop? Without human forced global warming, that feedback loop would be short lived (that is, there would be nothing that could have been described as a tipping point).
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Albedo feedback loop!
https://climatetippingpoints.info/2016/10/21/arctic-sea-ice-and-positive-feedback-loops/
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Tuitorial on Tipping Points
http://climatestate.com/2019/01/16/climate-tipping-points-existential-threat-to-our-life-support-systems/?fbclid=IwAR2vMlZG4wyBZbSWVmE9j1ozYFjjDbqgqsFEB51Uej2RRhD47N1zulVy6F4
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There are so many it’s hard to know which is the worst. Methane or the loss of albedo from the Arctic Sea Ice.
https://thinkprogress.org/dangerous-permafrost-climate-feedback-loop/?fbclid=IwAR238adjwl5-visZ4vIVjmQ6VsBzYWts69k8eFxFtlWr5mm6Ybr1WKHKYx0
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“Climate change tipping point could be coming sooner than we think.”
Tipping points can only be seen in the rear view mirror. We know they exist, then next minute we have crosed them.
https://m.phys.org/news/2019-01-climate-sooner.html?fbclid=IwAR23YwKP9sGkBfoEHyZ4-7dQK4kER4y9eDDveIzQ5YZmn1feiph2Kv-1ISs
—————————————
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0848-x?fbclid=IwAR1-C_YvWDfD98Jyo8yaRGF_mk-uXzwEhZUGt-73Wq2OSK66Ycjtb2rQtk8
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Another feedback loop come to notice.
https://futurism.com/the-byte/co2-plants-processing-carbon?fbclid=IwAR2cR-FJAmRnwHicSYxFLZfEqZGP8PzGNng1bCxkV8oj3k28sdKIZOYwVYA
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Another nail in the coffin courtesy of Robin Westenra from the Seemorerocks blog;
https://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2019/01/the-mixing-of-fresh-and-saline-water.html?spref=fb&fbclid=IwAR0qeklVSrjaWhqxCJ1Co3KE6pxrHjVKf3qIrwnH6sFW2XNbJ2S98o5nT1Y
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I’ll be surprised by anyone who can truly estimate the level of CO2 increase with feedbacks included so what Sam is indicating is probably the bottomof the estimated increase.
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/02/co2-levels-reach-another-record-high.html?fbclid=IwAR0wCyIP9WyMuO7kt1lp16F-rThD7awlpCz67b42KiSx3NuMZtuJjgEv-nI
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“During the melting season, lakes may form on the surface of ice shelves, pooling the weight of melting snow and ice into many areas of liquid water”.
“Meltwater lakes can contain water weighing fifty thousand to two million tons each, and that pushes downward on the ice, creating an indent. If the lake drains, this indent pops back up. If the resultant stress is large enough, the ice surrounding the lake basin weakens, and may start to break, the researchers predict.”
I’ve learn’t a shit load about feedback loops in the last 5 years. I can’t believe that things can continue with another 5 years of feedback loops, especially considering that they like the climate crisis are now non-linear !!
Good luck everyone.
https://cires.colorado.edu/news/ice-shelves-buckle-under-weight-meltwater-lakes?fbclid=IwAR3-vVna61e4dVLIdYsIFW9H5eEVfvoJHApZd5pqu46OUOqMLpey7rkfP0c
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I had thought ice and liquid water had the same weight for the same amount of water. Apologies for not reading the link but I don’t see how a pool of liquid water could weigh more than the ice that was there.
Remember that a lot of these proposed positive feedbacks aren’t necessarily yet having an effect and may not yet be fully understood. That doesn’t give me any comfort except that it may be that we aren’t quite as close to a tipping point as some think. In some ways, that isn’t good because humans, being what they are, won’t respond until the impacts are knocking at everyone’s door.
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But wait, there’s more;
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-019-0797-2?fbclid=IwAR2KKRg4ImnCL469BudvtjuPZRS74YbAq4f7f245NuxAfbtd80HtZ-atRhA#article-info
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The spring rain feedback loop.
Good article with a nonsensical use of the word ‘could’ in the title.
Not could or will, ‘is’, is the right descriptor. Because the methane feedback loop is so dire authors often want to leave the door open to the consequences, it’s a degree of cognitive dissonance, the same affliction that affects Michael Mann who recently became the methane feedback loop denier in chief.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/19022019/arctic-bogs-permafrost-thaw-methane-climate-change-feedback-loop?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR2BdX394aMqMM-10qis5ucz0yx0TPO1Ua72tEQh0Ktk9F0v_9L9yty9EHU
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Just another feedback loop, tipping point on the road to armageddon;
https://www.quantamagazine.org/cloud-loss-could-add-8-degrees-to-global-warming-20190225/?fbclid=IwAR3Y7gaS2cRdVEqfcNX-dUXRzCk2R8x8gasefQR37Zr-5qpYLqFP0FA8uFU
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Torstein and Wolfgang discuss ‘Tipping Points’.
https://www.fasterthanexpected.one/talking-south-interview-by-torstein-vidall/?fbclid=IwAR3MYEcG26Ol6hhc57jWXq74wWAS5naNp69ZdZUKCTLw1IqVd00R6ZgbPSQ
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More analysis of the cloud tipping point from Dahr Jamail staff reported at Truthout.org;
https://truthout.org/articles/if-emissions-arent-curbed-clouds-may-disappear/
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Another day, another tipping point crossed on the road to armageddon!
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/11032019/forest-wildfire-climate-change-tipping-point-study-douglas-fir-ponderosa-pines-west?fbclid=IwAR0rHs_3UYQTFJiaee_vRtFGWGnVhTShgax66eoL2Tvoe69LxtzRjWoG6Go
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There’s no shortage of evidence is there.
At the edge of extinction only cognitive dissonance remains;
https://guymcpherson.com/2019/03/edge-of-extinction-eight-distinct-paths-to-loss-of-human-habitat/?fbclid=IwAR17Tf6YqKdnD6qWWvupllm3g7yykw5KonwPM3VSZO5M6Eg38_E9ud4GNWw
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Another day, another feedback loop;
https://thebulletin.org/2019/03/end-of-a-carbon-dioxide-sink/?fbclid=IwAR0ZwgHY2ebmsgXbwuR7eyIzEO5oZbxJWfzZwnjh44g895MAbXNC3CEwi7A
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The Albedo feedback loop. More proof by the day.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-38109-x?fbclid=IwAR16LZ8e9m7atfPtwRO1As-yU93k2LuoXo_1l_vvOBcvnH96VWzJh5b9rPU
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“We need to accept the fact that climate change is out of control and we have crossed many catastrophic tipping points that are beyond any technological solution.”
https://globalwarmingclimatechangemethane.blogspot.com/2019/04/abrupt-climate-change-summary-2019_10.html?fbclid=IwAR29MuViNWyx3AOabu5El69WRltiVySMiI3IopPLXp-1qaruB6GbkxhZ5kI
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‘It’s already begun’: Feedback loops will make climate change even worse, scientists say.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/its-already-begun-feedback-loops-will-make-climate-change-even-worse-scientists-say-090000011.html?fbclid=IwAR3EME1aHSsxDN2IqTiuN1Vtis6J7P5gTkViEtuhWHohSOoECxa0hfkMQVM
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“the time to act against climate change is right now (1994)” “Any further delay in ending the international community’s reliance on fossil fuels and reversing global carbon emission trends places the planet on an irreversible path toward climate catastrophe”
https://www.theonion.com/the-time-to-act-is-now-says-yellowing-climate-change-1819578751?utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SF&utm_medium=SocialMarketing&utm_content=Main
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“This fire effect on snowmelt is much more widespread and persistent than we originally thought,” said Gleason. “Forest fires could have a big impact on the timing and availability of our water resources and trigger, potentially, more, bigger, hotter fires in the future.”
This is a classic feedback loop and reinforces why those of us monitoring the albedo feedback loop in the Arctic are concerned (to put it mildly).
I remember many years ago when the corporate NGO’s would warn of feedback loops kicking in, now that they have, those same NGO’s have gone silent, apparently it’s bad for fund raising drives to mention the elephant in the room of feeedback loops being in the drivers seat.
https://www.rgj.com/story/news/2019/05/08/research-finds-link-between-wildfire-accelerated-snowmelt-across-west/1133438001/?fbclid=IwAR2xwni_yhN6mPnPZHArZ3Kyj25au9bZJ09X0XX11C5GWDx1EoImwBaDGJs
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This is a new paper just published on “Tipping Points”.
Click to access 1905.05476.pdf
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So much evidence, so little action.
“The issue now is that Arctic permafrost is melting at an unprecedented rate, unlocking large amounts of carbon. A recent study suggests that a rise of 1°C in surface temperature equates with the loss of 1.5 million miles of permafrost.”
https://www.polartrec.com/expeditions/carbon-in-the-arctic/journals/2019-05-11?fbclid=IwAR2eHlHyjC2pzTxQ5HiA2sp1Ab9cuhqrszWHbhkPjqCj5vhUV1mqS_Bj1eU
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Even the conservative Joe Romm conceded that feedback loops are now driving the Arctic death spiral.
https://thinkprogress.org/arctic-death-spiral-coastal-permafrost-collapse-23d650acea99/?fbclid=IwAR33zI6mLLBHyZ3T93UYwJR-xnTP5HsVZAWy6lP_26Wyp8B_CT82rjooMXM
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