Climate Change Beyond the Climate Tipping Point

It is imperative that people understand the exponential nature of where our climate catastrophe is and how it will quickly unravel.

We were lied to about the ‘safety’ of a 2C temperature increase, when in fact 2C was always going to trigger a multitude of “Tipping points” that would ensure the unraveling of the bio-sphere that all of the complex life on this planet depends.

It is important to remember that  there is a 10 to 30 year lag between the emission of carbon and when we can see the consequences manifest.
Sixty-three percent of all human-generated carbon emissions have been produced in the last 25 years.

Myself and Professor Guy McPherson will be touring NZ in November 2016 giving the people of New Zealand mine and Professor McPherson’s perspective on what we are calling ” The Great Unraveling”.
Facebook Event here;

Brilliant video on Tipping points from Joe Tyndall below;

Climate Change: Beyond the Tipping Point – Joe Tyndall

 

 

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I’m editing this link on the 20/10/2018 to add this important presentation from PaulBeckwith.net

Activist, sailor, passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour . Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.

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100 comments on “Climate Change Beyond the Climate Tipping Point
  1. Kevin Hester says:

    “The tiny particles from the fires lingered in the Northern Hemisphere’s atmosphere for a month, each molecule of black carbon trapping 3,200 times more heat than CO2 over a 20-year span.”
    Wow, how’s that for a feedback loop?

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/4/24/1759260/-Expect-abnormally-high-ice-loss-from-Greenland-in-2018-Melting-is-feeding-on-itself-scientists-say

    Like

  2. Kevin Hester says:

    “Methane emissions from lakes in the northern hemisphere could almost double over the next 50 years because of a novel “feedback loop” say scientists.”
    Another day, another feedback loop;
    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-43990403#

    Like

    • Mike Roberts says:

      We have to be careful here, in characterising such research. There is nothing in the article that suggests the scum microlayer is caused by warming, or is likely to be made worse by warming. So not a feedback loop. Also, there is nothing in the article which says how this affects atmospheric CO2 concentration, if at all. It is restricting exchange of CO2, which goes both ways. So I don’t think we should read too much into it, at this stage, at least not so far as climate change is concerned.

      Liked by 1 person

  3. Kevin Hester says:

    “But the general gist of the study is considerably more ominous: not only have we discovered a climate tipping point, but we’ve spotted it after the system has probably already flipped into a new regime.”
    https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/06/barents-sea-seems-to-have-crossed-a-climate-tipping-point/

    Like

    • Mike Roberts says:

      There is no mention of feedback, in the article. Data were sketchy before; this is really just measuring the carbon transfer accurately for the first time. One of the researchers also mentioned that the outgassing is not suprising, though the magnitude of it is. So why do you mention that this is a “classic feedback loop”?

      Like

      • LN says:

        Agreeing with Mike — this is new data, not necessarily new emissions. Gotta keep the facts straight and the logic correct.

        Like

  4. Kevin Hester says:

    “Lister​ told Truthout that “methane emissions [in the Arctic] are already a severe risk,” and that he and Dr. MacCracken’s UN paper shows that once temperatures started rising they would be largely unstoppable due to the interacting nature of the feedback mechanisms.”
    Dahr Jamail​ steps up to the plate and confronts the issue of feedback loops in our climate crisis and how rapidly the effects will kick in. Time now for the large NGO’s to face the reality of our predicament.
    If everything holds together Dahr and I will be touring Aotearoa NZ together in July next year after he launches his latest book “The End of Ice”. He will be touring the US and Australia also keep an eye out on our Facadebook walls and via the Truthout​ website.
    I’ll be discussing these issues with Paul Beckwith​ in tomorrows episode of Nature Bats Last on PRN.FM. Dahr will be my guest again in January when the book is released.
    I
    “One of the greatest shortcomings of the human species is it’s inability to understand the exponential function” Albert Bartlett.

    https://truthout.org/articles/how-feedback-loops-are-driving-runaway-climate-change/

    Like

  5. Kevin Hester says:

    Possibly the feedback loop that concerns me the most is the albedo feedback loop associated with the loss of sea ice and the potential for a 50 gigatonne release of methane from the ESAS.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/20/risks-of-domino-effect-of-tipping-points-greater-than-thought-study-says?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR22Dzify8QJRy8V0u1WiuD2Gvc0aDEaFz6mdZ0X2OYc5eCqs9FHu1r9DEY

    Like

  6. Kirk Brent says:

    Every feedback loop had a tipping point which was crossed when they began.
    Feedback loops once started is incredibly hard or impossible to stop once started.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Mike Roberts says:

      I’m sure I commented on this before but I don’t think that statement is true (that every feedback loop was started by crossing some tipping point). For example, any increase in temperature would cause some extra melting of Arctic sea ice, which causes a bit more heat to be absorbed by darker liquid water, but what was the tipping point which started that feedback loop? Without human forced global warming, that feedback loop would be short lived (that is, there would be nothing that could have been described as a tipping point).

      Like

  7. Kevin Hester says:

    There are so many it’s hard to know which is the worst. Methane or the loss of albedo from the Arctic Sea Ice.
    https://thinkprogress.org/dangerous-permafrost-climate-feedback-loop/?fbclid=IwAR238adjwl5-visZ4vIVjmQ6VsBzYWts69k8eFxFtlWr5mm6Ybr1WKHKYx0

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  8. Kevin Hester says:

    “Climate change tipping point could be coming sooner than we think.”
    Tipping points can only be seen in the rear view mirror. We know they exist, then next minute we have crosed them.
    https://m.phys.org/news/2019-01-climate-sooner.html?fbclid=IwAR23YwKP9sGkBfoEHyZ4-7dQK4kER4y9eDDveIzQ5YZmn1feiph2Kv-1ISs
    —————————————

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0848-x?fbclid=IwAR1-C_YvWDfD98Jyo8yaRGF_mk-uXzwEhZUGt-73Wq2OSK66Ycjtb2rQtk8

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  9. Kevin Hester says:

    I’ll be surprised by anyone who can truly estimate the level of CO2 increase with feedbacks included so what Sam is indicating is probably the bottomof the estimated increase.
    https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/02/co2-levels-reach-another-record-high.html?fbclid=IwAR0wCyIP9WyMuO7kt1lp16F-rThD7awlpCz67b42KiSx3NuMZtuJjgEv-nI

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  10. Kevin Hester says:

    “During the melting season, lakes may form on the surface of ice shelves, pooling the weight of melting snow and ice into many areas of liquid water”.

    “Meltwater lakes can contain water weighing fifty thousand to two million tons each, and that pushes downward on the ice, creating an indent. If the lake drains, this indent pops back up. If the resultant stress is large enough, the ice surrounding the lake basin weakens, and may start to break, the researchers predict.”
    I’ve learn’t a shit load about feedback loops in the last 5 years. I can’t believe that things can continue with another 5 years of feedback loops, especially considering that they like the climate crisis are now non-linear !!
    Good luck everyone.

    https://cires.colorado.edu/news/ice-shelves-buckle-under-weight-meltwater-lakes?fbclid=IwAR3-vVna61e4dVLIdYsIFW9H5eEVfvoJHApZd5pqu46OUOqMLpey7rkfP0c

    Like

    • Mike Roberts says:

      I had thought ice and liquid water had the same weight for the same amount of water. Apologies for not reading the link but I don’t see how a pool of liquid water could weigh more than the ice that was there.

      Remember that a lot of these proposed positive feedbacks aren’t necessarily yet having an effect and may not yet be fully understood. That doesn’t give me any comfort except that it may be that we aren’t quite as close to a tipping point as some think. In some ways, that isn’t good because humans, being what they are, won’t respond until the impacts are knocking at everyone’s door.

      Liked by 1 person

  11. Kevin Hester says:

    The spring rain feedback loop.
    Good article with a nonsensical use of the word ‘could’ in the title.
    Not could or will, ‘is’, is the right descriptor. Because the methane feedback loop is so dire authors often want to leave the door open to the consequences, it’s a degree of cognitive dissonance, the same affliction that affects Michael Mann who recently became the methane feedback loop denier in chief.
    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/19022019/arctic-bogs-permafrost-thaw-methane-climate-change-feedback-loop?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR2BdX394aMqMM-10qis5ucz0yx0TPO1Ua72tEQh0Ktk9F0v_9L9yty9EHU

    Like

  12. Kevin Hester says:

    More analysis of the cloud tipping point from Dahr Jamail staff reported at Truthout.org;
    https://truthout.org/articles/if-emissions-arent-curbed-clouds-may-disappear/

    Like

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Kevin Hester

Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water.  I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.

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