Baseline Temperature dishonesty at the Edge of Extinction

As we get closer to the collapse of the biosphere, I have been noticing a huge distortion, if not outright lying, in the use of baseline figures for the planetary temperature increase that humans have caused with our crack like and sadly terminal addiction to carbon.
“The Industrial Revolution, which took place from the 18th to 19th centuries, was a period during which predominantly agrarian, rural societies in Europe and America became industrial and urban. Prior to the Industrial Revolution, which began in Britain in the late 1700s, manufacturing was often done in people’s homes, using hand tools or basic machines. Industrialization marked a shift to powered, special-purpose machinery, factories and mass production.”INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

“In 1698, Thomas Savery, an engineer and inventor, patented a machine that could effectively draw water from flooded mines using steam pressure.
Thomas Savery Steam Engine
Savery used principles set forth by Denis Papin, a French-born British physicist who invented the pressure cooker. Papin’s ideas surrounding a cylinder and piston steam engine had not previously been used to build a working engine, but by 1705, Savery had turned Papin’s ideas into a useful invention.” additional information here; Who Invented the Steam Engine?
So in 1698 Thomas Savery had a patent on a steam engine powered by coal and this warming influence on the global mean temperature is casually ignored by the much vaunted IPCC

“The IPCC is currently in its Sixth Assessment cycle. During this cycle, the Panel will produce three Special Reports, a Methodology Report on national greenhouse gas inventories and the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).The 43rd Session of the IPCC held in April 2016 agreed that the AR6 Synthesis Report would be finalized in 2022 in time for the first UNFCCC global stocktake when countries will review progress towards their goal of keeping global warming to well below 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C. The three Working Group contributions to AR6 will be finalized in 2021.”
So the IPCC plans to reassess the 1.5C and 2C Voluntary targets in 2021! Considering we are now in early stage runaway  for them to pretend that we will be below a 1.5C temperature increase in 2021 is a monumental dereliction of duty in my humble opinion, especially now that our oceans have reached carbon saturation and are now out-gassing carbon instead of being carbon sinks. It appears all the ‘heavy lifting’ that our oceans have been doing has drawn to a close. Yet another feedback loop/ tipping point crossed.

From the good but very conservative Christian and  Hilary Clinton supporting climate blogger!!!! Robertscribbler
“Temperature averages for 2016 are so far about 1.22 C above the 1951 to 1980 baseline or about 1.44 C above 1880s averages.”
Scribbler has us in 2016 at 1.44C above the 1880 average  and Thomas Savery et al has been burning coal since 1698! What happened to that 182 years of emissions?
Admittedly the emissions in the early days of burning coal and later oil were low but ignoring them is in breach of the “Precautionary Principal”
The purpose of this blog post is to get my readers to question every article that quotes warming levels that ignore emissions before some arbitrary  date.
Common people, everything is at stake, lets keep these shylocks honest until the lights go out. Question Everything, brace for imminent impact.


I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Feedback loops, Near Term Human Extinction--NTHE, Uncategorized
24 comments on “Baseline Temperature dishonesty at the Edge of Extinction
  1. On this graph I note a difference between 1880 and mid-20th baseline of 0,5 C° at first sight. So 1,5 is history. It is said data from before 1880 are to be considered as ‘uncertain’, so they become ignored. I realy hate these baselines. We must be close to two degrees right now. Thanks for warning, Kevin !

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Jimbot says:

    Thanks for pointing this out Mr. Hester and for your important voice in the ongoing demise of everything.

    It’s another slight of hand trick they’re pulling like when 1.0 degrees C limit became 2.0 degrees thanks to an economist’s opinion at one of the climate change meetings.

    Previous to that, in the1980s, an economist declared that Limit to Growth was a failed idea and got lots of press attention for it.

    And the organization continues to spout rhetoric about cap and trade while we’re at 410 currently.

    Like back in 1987 when The Bruntland Commission announced the new goal and paradigm of “sustainable development”. All any developer had to do was include these buzzwords in any development package, no matter how excessive and over the top, to gain instant approval from all regulatory boards. After it was pointed out that the phrase was an actual oxymoron they revised it to “sustainability”, with the implicit understanding that it would have the same instant approval magic wand effect.

    All development is unsustainable, it puts increased stress on an already totally overstressed biosphere.

    I wonder how your compatriot chemist Kevin Moore is doing these days in his battles with the local developers. Very few scientific people will mention his ( and Malcolm Light’s ) hypothesis about using the actual instantaneous value of methane’s atmospheric forcing potential, or it’s CO2e value as it’s referred to. IPCC uses a decay value of 100 years and pegs it at 20 times CO2 or so. In 100 years it won’t matter. The instantaneous value is much more realistic if the amount is constantly increasing, which it is. More tricky lying by the officials.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Reblogged this on Move for Change and the Brooklyn Culture Jam and commented:
    My FB friend and writer Kevin Hester blows the lid off a story that those who aren’t climate change experts are being mislead by. Various organizations in the climate monitoring business are busy moving the goalposts. If we agree that the Industrial revolution started in earnest in 1698, then we are some 1.6 C above baseline. But now, groups like the IPCC are moving the starting gate, which makes total warming less–1.4 C if you accept 1880, 1.2 C if you talk turn of the century. It’s mendacious bullshit, and somebody needs to call them out.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Kevin Hester says:

    In 2005 Dr James E Hansen said that 1C was the upper limit.
    The goal posts keep moving.


    • dev says:

      James hansen has really been a big liar according to me as Guy Mcphereson has said in his previous interviews james hansen and other scientists but still they are misleading the people by saying we still can solve this.Humans have nothing but caused destruction on this planet and defying laws at every step forcing other species to go extinct for our greed.So according to me this planet will thrive without human animals on it and i will be glad the day when this happens.

      Liked by 1 person

  5. […] CounterPunch radio guest, Kevin Hester, argues we need to use the year 1698 as a baseline since the planet was burning coal during that […]

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Kevin Hester says:

    Paul reiterates my position on baseline dishonesty and how important it is for us to understand exactly where we are relative to the real baseline.
    Anything other than 1750 is a distraction;


  7. […] on the global mean temperature is (…) ignored by the (…) IPCC. “ Quelle: Kevin Hester (Blogbeitrag vom 1. Mai 2017; link in 1698… u. herv. […]

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Kevin Hester says:

    I have been rallying against the dishonesty surrounding the baseline dates and Michael Mann’s outright lies for some time,that we can still meet the 2C target. Even the most junior student of climate change can see we can never meet the 2C target.
    The narrative around where we are really at is being controlled to hide from everyone the true state of the runaway situation we find ourselves in.


  9. The “independent media” using Christian identity politics makes a joke of itself by the quantity of it: Self anointed interpreters of iron-age literature calling themselves reporters are abundant, united in party chants of climate change denial. Alex Jones is simply more well known, but there many of these. SGTreport, The Official Hagmann Report, Wells’ CTM, you can only see a guy so many times who has a “rap-sheet of goofiness” like Monckton. This Titanic i doomed, the only tools left are full scale spam.

    Liked by 1 person

  10. Kevin Hester says:

    “Global temperatures have been steadily rising over the past 20 years, and in each of the last three years averages have topped the 1C threshold.”
    They are lying about the temp rise by setting a very late baseline. I believe above the 1700 baseline we are already over 1.6C


  11. Anthony says:

    You are completely correct. Thank you for your voice of reason and truth with regard to this most critical issue.

    Liked by 1 person

  12. Kevin Hester says:

    Fascinating story that is a veritable novel.
    “Indians were here far longer than previously thought, these researchers believe, and in much greater numbers. And they were so successful at imposing their will on the landscape that in 1492 Columbus set foot in a hemisphere thoroughly dominated by humankind”.
    This quote plays to my contention that using baseline dates after 1700 ommits considerable anthropogenic warming.
    If this civilisation was dominating the natural world in 1492 then the amount of carbon in the atmosphere would have been less than the accepted 280ppm that is taken as being steady state.
    I contest that ignoring any warming in a sensitive climate breaches the precautionary principle.


  13. Kevin Hester says:

    New paper shows how a genocide reduced the anthropogenic carbon loading of the atmosphere via Patrick Farnsworth of “Last Born in the Wilderness” blog and podcast.

    Combines multiple methods estimating pre-Columbian population numbers.

    Estimates European arrival in 1492 lead to 56 million deaths by 1600.

    Large population reduction led to reforestation of 55.8 Mha and 7.4 Pg C uptake.

    1610 atmospheric CO2 drop partly caused by indigenous depopulation of the Americas.

    Humans contributed to Earth System changes before the Industrial Revolution.


  14. Kevin Hester says:

    What Sam’s latest post on the Arctic News Blog shows is the true level of anthropogenic warming that we have already seen.
    Anyone using a date after 1750 as a baseline is complicit in the coverup, considering agriculture, 1700 would be better.
    FFS, Thomas Savery had a coal fired, steam driven pump happening in 1698.
    Climate sensitivity has been grossly underestimated at the biosphere’s peril.


  15. Kevin Hester says:

    “Before Price’s work, fisheries biologists used figures from the 1960s as the baseline for a healthy wild population, even though the commercial fishery on the Skeena began in 1877.”
    Baseline dishonesty is endemic.
    The same thing happened in the climate crisis hence the unfolding crash there as well.


  16. Kevin Hester says:

    Sam Carana from the Arctic News Blog calculates using 1750 as a baseline we are already over 2C hence the chaos unfolding.


  17. Kevin Hester says:

    My co-host on Nature Bats Last on PRN.FM reiterates both mine ad Sam Carana’s position above;


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Kevin Hester

Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water.  I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.

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