Tipping Points in the Earth Climate System. Dr Andrew Glikson returns to Nature Bats Last

Todays guest on Nature Bats Last was Dr Andrew Glikson from the Australian National University. Dr Andrew Glikson is a geologist living in Australia. He is an Earth scientist and paleo-climatologist currently serving as Visiting Fellow at the Australian National University. He is the author of dozens of articles and ten books, notably including his 2015 masterpiece Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene. 

Put your feet up, relax and enjoy, episode 129 of Nature Bats Last which is embedded here;
NBL

I’ve posted below corroborating links to the discussion.
We discussed Dr Glikson’s recent article titled: Beyond Climate Tipping Points: Greenhouse Gas Levels Exceed the Stability Limit of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

I additionally quoted an article from Scripts Institution of Oceanography titled ; Research Highlight: Loss of Arctic’s Reflective Sea Ice Will Advance Global Warming by 25 Years

“The 4.3 million hectare fire – an area now larger than Denmark – is contributing significantly to climate change.
Since the beginning of the year, a total of 13.1 million hectares has burned.” A climate catastrophe that can not be stopped by human means! Russian fires now bigger than Denmark: 13 million hectares gone

I mentioned that both Dr Glikson and Professor McPherson are concerned about the methane threat and how they both respect the work of Dr Natalia Shakova and her colleagues. A link to a recent paper from Dr Shakova titled ” Understanding the Permafrost–Hydrate System and Associated Methane Releases in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf”can be found here;  A video interview with her courtesy of Nick Breeze is embedded here;
As well as discussing the scientific aspects of what we are witnessing, we discussed the psychological roller coaster we are all on and Dr Gliksons’ Poetry and the role it plays in absorbing and expressing the psychological challenges this knowledge of the predicament we find ourselves in entails. Finding an emotional and artistic outlet  we believe is imperative.
Mine is to volunteer at the not for profit Rakino Island Nursery on a rewilding program. It’s both my “Antidote to despair” as Edward Abbey wrote but also proof that just because I recognise the severity of the multiple crises we face it doesn’t mean I have ‘given up’, an accusation often leveled at Professor McPherson and myself.

Guy spoke about “Scientific Reticence”, he has covered it previously on his You Tube Channel and blog Nature Bats Last   Here is an excellent edit on the subject via the Tim Bob Channel  featuring Guy.

“At the risk of seeming ridiculous let me say that the true revolutionary is guided by a great feeling of love. It is impossible to think of a genuine revolutionary lacking this quality.” Ernesto Che Guevarra.

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Look after each other, be gentle, time is short, Only Love Remains
Q&A: Dr Andrew Glikson on the Plutocene age

Dr Andrew Glikson

I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Dr Andrew Glikson, Professor Guy McPherson
91 comments on “Tipping Points in the Earth Climate System. Dr Andrew Glikson returns to Nature Bats Last
  1. Kevin Hester says:

    “It is often assumed climate change will proceed gradually as we increase the amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere. Over the last 15 years, however, it has become increasingly clear that the Earth’s climate system or subsystems thereof—such as sea ice cover, monsoon systems, and ocean currents—might shift abruptly and with little warning as CO2 levels go up. This is known as climate tipping.
    “Two studies from the European TiPES project now add to the evidence that tipping could be imminent and might be more widespread in the climate system than usually anticipated.”

    https://phys.org/news/2021-07-climate.amp?fbclid=IwAR1LTYk8EgSHZcH0Mtr_E25af4LeSksG8yIyVwlBR6dhtI811vmnaFaGsRE

    Like

  2. As the 20th day of above 38C bakes the world outside my windows I’ve been of the mind that this isn’t ‘just’ a frigging heat dome but that this could be more like a sudden climatic shift from one stabile state to…whatever this is going to be. Until of course next Spring and Summer, then worse the year after that. The 30 year lag time between emissions and effects is going to be huge.

    I mostly check my thermometer after 3pm but only once. I don’t go outside much at this point, Kevin. I’m an ocean person, a born & raised beach kid, who never enjoyed desert heat and this is acting like I’m living in Phoenix. But of course Phoenix is 118’F at this point…it’s almost 3pm my time so I’ll be going out to do that before I post this. It will be grim because just poking my head out a bit ago took my breath away.
    _____

    I was cornered by a local woman in her early 50s maybe on Monday out back of the 2nd hand store where I fix furniture once a week as I was emptying trash. She’s local and not exactly raised to think for herself and had little if any ideas on how critical thinking skills work. Not a bad person, just ignorant and unquestioning. She has however talked with me for years on different subjects including climate and admitted that she was raised to think the world is 6,000 years old which she somehow got past that indoctrination and became a better person for it… She knows me as the noisy old surfer dude no doubt about it but to her I’m like some kind of exotic alien species in the way I think and what I talk about. Funny that she actually likes talking with me.

    She came up asking for HER HUSBAND about websites to read up themselves on what the hell is going on. She’s freaking at this weather, so is he. It was hot as f**k at 8pm so we ducked into the shade of the building. She’s a cleaning woman, closes up and cleans the public laundry business on the street west of where we were, and then walks to the bank across the alley afterwards. I see her just about every week and we at least wave to one another.

    Kevin, she literally asked me how long before it all collapses. She said her husband was saying we might only have ten years and she was reading into stuff and told me that she thinks five years if we’re lucky!

    What the hell was I going to do, lie to her? They have no idea about the 50gt of methane and everything else going on etc etc because they read corporate-approved climate stuff (ie Michael Mann and that ilk) and what the TV news doesn’t censor.

    Well DUH! I gave her both your website address and arctic_news.blogspot.com figuring that would keep them busy. Then we talked for about ten minutes and I pretty much threw out a freaking list of this leads to that which does this and creates that that makes those…you know, connect the dots. Her face looked pretty grim.

    I asked her if they had kids and she said no, they never did. I told her that was good. She understood why I said that because she nodded. I’ll see her next week and hear what she thinks…if things don’t burn down or choke out on wildfire smoke from elsewhere or blow up into a full-on 2nd Wave of Delta & Gamma CoVid-19 mutations emergency because NOBODY is wearing masks around here and this county has a 22% vaxx rate…like it’s doing all over the US in non-vax populations.

    Gonna be fewer Trump voters if this keeps up. The 1918 Pandemic had three waves in three years. We’re in 1 1/2 years with the 2nd Wave roaring. Read about Sidney AUS and their scary goings-on today. Ouch. Sounds really familiar.
    ____

    Okay, 3:30 time to go out and check the thermometer. With an umbrella over my head even with my Aussie wide-brim river-runner hat. Yeah, it’s that hot.

    Temp is: 41’C/106F. And windy as plants are blowing around and the tops of the conifers are swaying. TWENTY DAYS OF THIS, Kevin! At least here in the mountains the temps drop at night unlike a lot of other places on the West Coast I could name.
    ____

    Yesterday the hot tub guy came by to fix a leak. Then we filled it. He’s slowly been working on it trying to get it back up and running, rebuilding motors etc for barter/trade. I only pay for components needed bought. But it’s a 2002 Hot Springs model so it was well worth the money to keep my lower back injury loose enough to function all these years. It’s been down for almost two years and I’ve definitely gotten stiffer in the meantime…

    It’s not yet working, looks like it needs a new power/test/reset cord (maybe the last problem?), but it now has 325 gallons of 43’F well water in it. Way cool! The little tub is warming up of course, nothing is exempt from that at this point with this heat, but taking a below-body-temp soak sounds like a pretty good idea in the evenings don’t ya think? Even if the water ends up being 80’F it will feel cooler and help lower core body temps. I’m surprised more people around here haven’t died as there has never been much AC. Besides being too damned expensive to install for most, the electric bills alone would break budgets. And nobody realizes that what they do is put the hot air outside the building so it actually causes measurable increases in temperatures to the surrounding area if there’s enough of it (like urban settings). Is that Irony or what? A very sick form!

    sealintheSelkirks

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Yep, and this guy is saying “within a decade or two or several centuries.” I have a real bad feeling about that…

    sealintheSelkirks

    Liked by 1 person

    • At the end of the article they list methane. That one alone, when the Burp lets loose, will end this un-civilized civilization, Not much doubt it will as it has before in the geological record.

      A 50GT burp and a staggering AMOC…oh my this just isn’t looking good.

      Oh wait, this article’s comment is that ” these deposits can be released into the atmosphere and present a risk of enhanced warming.” Enhanced warming? Really? Sounds so relaxing that we can all just go to the beach and have a fish fry. Just a little climate change after all, and the weather is always changing, right?

      Yep, there’s always more and sometimes they even mention it a little but always make it sound not so bad. Why is that?
      ____

      9/11 and the World Trade Centers countrywide mourning all day today everywhere I’ve read. Why so glum? Dick Cheney and the US Fascists got their new Pearl Harbor they said they needed to install their ‘Project for a New American Century’ just a couple years after they published it. How…coincidental. God must have been on their side.

      sealintheSelkirks

      Liked by 1 person

    • And this article is talking about 80 years from now saying “could be weakened 34-45% by end of the century” and then up pops Mann’s name at the end of the sentence.

      Excuse me? It’s always ‘decades away’ when it comes to him, why is that? And then the next science name puts in his two cents saying we need to be conservative and cautious, then the next couple are screaming ‘why aren’t they using our decades of research on this?’

      Permanent disruption of life that isn’t happening yet so what me worry as Alfred E. Nueman was so fond of saying in Mad Magazine. It’ll be decades and you’ll be dead anyway.

      Wow.

      Weather here:

      Freezing hard at night, ice only melts when the sun gets to it in the early morning or later under the canopy as it’s been above 10C in the afternoons. The monster category 5 atmospheric river didn’t get this far north as predicted like it did down in Cali (my friend in Utah said it has been raining for 3 weeks with 45″ of snow above Salt Lake City already). But there were some decent rain showers at least. Deficit in water still obviously.

      The fire station sign was at ‘low danger’ last week finally dropping below moderate for the first time since March. The local snowboarding hill has zero snow on the peak but some Euro rich guy bought my hill two years ago and put in a $2.5 million new quad lift to replace the 1960s 2-seater bought from Sun Valley Idaho decades ago. And this hill has had nothing for snow the last two years even as last season was also a ‘La Nina’ that was supposed to be wetter. Well, it wasn’t. I can’t do mm conversions from inches in my head but there wasn’t more than 75″ of base last season and the totals including every speck of melted-off early season dustings added in. Used to be 305″ a year when I moved here, now at 250″ a year. But I guess this rich dude has full confidence that snowfall is going to turn around and dump because why else would he be spending so much, eh?

      sealintheSelkirks

      Liked by 1 person

  4. Kevin Hester says:

    The Guardian catching up to Nature Bats Last.
    This is just one of the tipping points listed in Professor Guy McPherson’s monster climate change essay.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/05/climate-crisis-scientists-spot-warning-signs-of-gulf-stream-collapse?fbclid=IwAR1Avq4CJmiyiR9XrM7UEbO5lcVrF9HKeehF9QG5w0bzDevT3DBfOzKvpJI

    Like

  5. Kevin Hester says:

    Guy’s latest video concentrates on the abrupt climate change we have triggered & references the work of Professors Corey Bradshaw and Dr Andrew Glikson. Guy and I interviewed both of them on Nature Bats Last, those interviews can be found at the NBL archive at PRN.FM

    Like

  6. […] on Nature Bats Last on PRN.FM , that interview and links to his previous work is embedded below; Tipping Points in the Earth Climate System. Dr Andrew Glikson returns to Nature Bats LastProfessor Glikson emailed me PDF’s to his more recent work. I’ve embedded links to the […]

    Like

  7. Kevin Hester says:

    Classic BBC propaganda repeating 2100 three times when in reality all the tipping points are in our rear view mirror now, not long off in the future.

    Like

    • At the very end…’triggered something you can’t undo.’ Yeah, that pretty much sums up how we are thinking.

      But the wealthy who control everything don’t care, hence nothing will change.

      Do something fun every day if at all possible. All we take with us is our memories…

      sealintheSelkirks

      Liked by 1 person

  8. Kevin Hester says:

    A CLIMATE OF BETRAYAL
    – by Andrew Glikson
    As indicated by the International Monetary fund, greenhouse gas emissions are funded world-wide by government subsidies totaling $5.9 trillion in 2020, about 6.8% global GDP, expected to rise to 7.4% of GDP in 2025, or $11million a minute.
    According to Climate 202, the Biden administration has approved more oil and gas drilling permits on public lands per month than the Trump administration did during the first three years of the Trump presidency.
    In Europe, the year 2020 was supposed to be when the European Union would launch its ambitious plan to tackle the climate crisis, so why does Europe sabotage its own climate goals by subsidizing the fossil sector by more than €137 billion per year? (from: Investigate Europe).
    As the UK prepares to host the G7 summit, new analysis reveals that the countries attending committed $189bn to support oil, coal and gas between January 2020 and March 2021. By comparison, the same countries, the UK, US, Canada, Italy, France, Germany and Japan, spent $147bn on clean energy.
    In Australia, business as usual continued, where fossil fuel subsidies reached $10.3 billion in 2020-21. Fossil fuel subsidies cost Australians a staggering $10.3 billion in 2020-21. Plans are made for a huge Beetaloo gas field in the Northern Territory. The Galilee coal project is proceeding and the Adani coal project gets ready to ship coal. Coal and gas works, if approved, would result in a nearly 30% increase in emissions within Australia.
    Who or what would save nature and humanity from the accelerating destruction of the livable Earth atmosphere and oceans?
    From the post ‘A Climate of Betrayal’, at:

    https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/a-climate-of-betrayal.html?fbclid=IwAR3OJfEJtbKds8zd02-giaqUUo-ytkQ9WCUhiO94Ji8yxlldp46104ePQ2Q

    Like

    • You been paying much attention to what’s happening this ‘winter’ in the US? Holy crapola, Kevin.

      Massive tornado outbreak yesterday. In December! Leveled entire towns. One tornado supposedly destroyed shit in a solid one hundred mile line in two states that was on the ground for HOURS! That ain’t normal!

      Then the huge wildfire in Montana that not only burned forest but burnt a town down that just happened to be in the way. In mid-December? A wildfire!

      A week ago a Kona Low nailed Hawai’i with e-fucking-normous amounts of rainfall that DP sent pictures of. Then yesterday another of those massive ‘Atmospheric Rivers’ from Hawai’i is throwing 8 feet of snow on Kirkwood Resort today but ‘only’ 22 inches of rain in the valleys. Oops.

      And another round of ‘record warmth’ is now moving across the country so expect a few more funnel clouds dropping on people this coming week perhaps? I mean, if it was thunderstorm season yeah, but in mid-December this isn’t supposed to be happening. The towns in the pictures are nothing but rubble. All they need is others smashing over the same piles of rubble where they are digging out bodies. There isn’t any cover to hide in anymore. Everything is destroyed. How about all that rescue equipment that was rushed to those states that got hit; imagine watching it get sucked up into new tornadoes.?

      Somehow itt wouldn’t be much of a surprise.
      __

      Email from my old snowboarder friend on the East Coast today:

      Yeah. The weather here in Central PA and Western Maryland is totally fucked up.
      I’m back at work since SS Disability Review figured I can work and do something.

      (Note: He is just coming back from a 2 year bout with cancer, major surgery, chemo & radiation).

      So I’m back at driving a semi delivering groceries to supermarkets.
      Drove down interstate 81 Monday night and the winds were at a steady 45 miles an hour.
      Saturday there was a high wind gust warning up to 50 to 60mph. By the time I was done at work at 5 PM it was 64°.
      Of course some people think climate change isn’t real, just like Covid isn’t real. 😂😆🤣
      My former colleague who is morbidly obese is basically dying in the Covid section of the local hospital. He asked if I’m gonna come and visit him, fat chance of that!
      I don’t think we’re going to have a winter here in Maryland the weather is going to be in the low 50s and then 65 around Wednesday.
      Jesus freaks are calling it the apocalypse I just call it the reckoning.
      Hold onto your hats and get the popcorn out!
      -Ollie
      ___

      It’s sure feeling like we’re tipping over even more this winter, Kevin. The lean is getting awfully noticeable.

      The Jet Stream may shift to a more normal pattern and I’ll get slammed with some real winter weather.Or not. At this point who the hell knows? My local ski hill is now claiming 14″ on top of the Peak. Anything new blew off in the winds yesterday so it’s rock-hard freeze-thaw nasty icy stuff. And the snow cams today definitely did not support their depth claim! Same as last year. Same as the winter before that. I’ve been watching the shift happen in these mountains for 18 winters now. I’ve got daily weather on calendars from the first year I was here.

      Today the sun was quite warm on my face (though the windchill was pretty cold). Tomorrow it’s supposed to snow. The Jet Stream is still doing the looping thing.

      sealintheSelkirks

      Liked by 1 person

      • Kevin Hester says:

        How come no one warned us? 😉
        Guy and I would have preferred to be proven wrong.

        Like

      • No doubt about that. There is truly no fun to be had by being able to shake your finger and loudly proclaim ‘I told you so’ over any of what we are facing.

        No matter how much we as individuals were against all this back a number of decades ago and where we are today, we are here for the show that’s already in motion. In human terms, the Equator is going to go beyond the livability threshold first I would imagine, already is in some places. But there is no getting off this ride. No matter how much Elon Musk pours his wealth into moving to Mars the technology just isn’t there. It just isn’t feasible unless there really is ‘alien space bats,’

        But I’m sure Elon and his contemporaries have a number of well-stocked hidden bunkers in different places around the world. Just in case.That, too, is just a temporary short-term patch as they will have to come out sometime.

        I’m in a serious mountain burn zone that hit 44C/116F last June. I’ve got no other place to go, excepting as a refugee literally on the road. Not only insurance companies going to crash, but the ability to respond to large masses of refugee humanity has never been enough. much less replacing the infrastructure etc etc. The 2005 Hurricane Katrina damage is still visible…

        Just finished John Feffer’s third book of his Eco/Greenhouse dystopia ‘Splinterlands’ series. Recently published and…it’s disturbing as he used ongoing real events that have happened since the first two came out but as history in the timeline of twenty years from now. Been a pretty good read though current events keep bumping up against his fiction writing. Funny how that happens with people who are paying attention to the world around them, eh? He’s the Director of Foreign Policy in Focus which I may have posted article links on your site before.
        ___

        House fire is warm, temps going down quickly outside, and my thumb is twice the size it was yesterday morning but isn’t broken and the puncture is not showing signs of infection. The windstorm got me good. Time for hot chocolate and maybe a bowl of homegrown Blue Permafrost. Helps my aching lower back along with my head! Probably won’t do much for the thumb, though.

        sealintheSelkirks

        Liked by 1 person

  9. Kevin Hester says:

    “The “Doomsday Glacier” may partially collapse. If it does, Earth’s sea level will rise by 2 feet
    The melting of at least part of the Antarctic Thwaites Glacier, long predicted, may finally be upon us”

    https://www.salon.com/2021/12/16/thwaites-glacier-sea-level-rise/?fbclid=IwAR0fwBG7FSh9fIMfdM5Aj37iNWmZYWY_JtCO7ynff8Cadxmz6I4SXNegBqc

    Like

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Kevin Hester

Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water.  I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.

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