“By 2027 the world could be facing a 214 trillion calorie deficit, says Sara Menker, founder and chief executive of Gro Intelligence, an agricultural data technology company.”
We Have Five Years To Save Ourselves From Climate Change, Harvard Scientist Says
“We have exquisite information about what that state is, because we have a paleo record going back millions of years, when the earth had no ice at either pole. There was almost no temperature difference between the equator and the pole,” said James Anderson, a Harvard University professor of atmospheric chemistry best known for establishing that chlorofluorocarbons were damaging the Ozone Layer.”
“The ocean was running almost 10ºC warmer all the way to the bottom than it is today,” Anderson said of this once-and-future climate, “and the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere would have meant that storm systems would be violent in the extreme, because water vapor, which is an exponential function of water temperature, is the gasoline that fuels the frequency and intensity of storm systems.”
“People have the misapprehension that we can recover from this state just by reducing carbon emissions, Anderson said in an appearance at the University of Chicago. Recovery is all but impossible, he argued, without a World War II-style transformation of industry—an acceleration of the effort to halt carbon pollution and remove it from the atmosphere, and a new effort to reflect sunlight away from the earth’s poles.”
“This has to be done, Anderson added, within the next five years.” Oops, Published Jan 15, 2018
“The chance that there will be any permanent ice left in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero,” Anderson said, with 75 to 80 percent of permanent ice having melted already in the last 35 years.
“Can we lose 75-80 percent of permanent ice and recover? The answer is no.”
Not mentioned in Guy’s latest work is that as CO2 levels in the atmosphere increase, the nutritional value of the crops decreases, in a double whammy. I doubt that Sara Manker’s analysis factors in the non-linearity we are witnessing in the climate system, nor the war in Ukraine, that will drastically lower its food production this year and for the foreseeable future.
Rising CO2 is reducing nutritional value of food, impacting ecosystems.
“Things are far worse than you are being told. Over the past few months, I have been carefully documenting facts that show that global food production is going to be way down in 2022. Unfortunately, most people out there don’t seem to understand that the food that isn’t being grown in 2022 won’t be on our store shelves in 2023. We are potentially facing an absolutely unprecedented worldwide food crisis next year, but the vast majority of the population doesn’t seem very alarmed about this.”
A List Of 33 Things We Know About The Coming Food Shortages
Abstract
“In the 1972 bestseller Limits to Growth (LtG), the authors concluded that, if global society kept pursuing economic growth, it would experience a decline in food production, industrial output, and ultimately population, within this century. The LtG authors used a system dynamics model to study interactions between global variables, varying model assumptions to generate different scenarios. Previous empirical-data comparisons since then by Turner showed closest alignment with a scenario that ended in collapse. This research constitutes a data update to LtG, by examining to what extent empirical data aligned with four LtG scenarios spanning a range of technological, resource, and societal assumptions. The research benefited from improved data availability since the previous updates and included a scenario and two variables that had not been part of previous comparisons. The two scenarios aligning most closely with observed data indicate a halt in welfare, food, and industrial production over the next decade or so, which puts into question the suitability of continuous economic growth as humanity’s goal in the twenty-first century.”
“Let’s fast-forward nearly four years to an article published August 8th, 2022 in Australia’s leading daily newspaper, The Sydney Morning Herald. Titled, ‘We’re in trouble’: Australia risks food insecurity, expert warns, the article from more than eight months ago includes this line, quoted from the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group: “Only about five days’ worth of perishable food exists in the supply chain at any given time.”
Science Snippets: On the Verge of Starvation
“With food scarcity driven by falling water tables, eroding soils, and rising temperatures, control of arable land and water resources is moving to center stage in the global struggle for food security. “In this era of tightening world food supplies, the ability to grow food is fast becoming a new form of geopolitical leverage. Food is the new oil,” Lester R. Brown writes.“
I’m going to miss eating, it was one of the few things I excelled at!
Edit on 11/07/024
“The article in Reuters closes with a quote from a land analyst at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit: “In 2021, the government warned that climate change was the biggest medium to long term threat to our food security. This analysis suggests that it is the biggest risk now, not at some far off point in the future.”
subscribers can comment on Guy’ personal subtack below
Denial and Lies Reign As Climate Change Threatens Food Supply
I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.
Kevin Hester 
Whoever controls the food controls the world.
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Exactly.
That quote is from the mass murderer Henry Kissinger!
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Words of wisdom from Hannibal the cannibal.
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Global Fresh Water Crunch: UN thinks we will be facing a 40% Deficit by 2030
11:39
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This new paper was emailed to me by the author Jem Bendell.
He brilliantly delves into the siloing of science and how and why it’s failed so badly leaving the planet on the brink of famine.
“Six hard trends that drive food system breakdown – globally
An IFLAS Occasional paper analyses the trends driving the breakdown of the global food system.”
http://iflas.blogspot.com/2023/02/six-hard-trends-that-drive-food-system.html
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“According to early estimates, the inclement weather has damaged more than 523 000 ha (1 292 332 acres) of wheat crops in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, leading to concerns of massive yield losses for farmers and harvesting difficulties. India, a major producer of wheat, is experiencing this crop damage amid persisting global high inflation and food security issues due to geopolitical uncertainties.”
https://watchers.news/2023/04/03/unseasonal-rains-and-hailstorms-threaten-wheat-harvest-in-india/?fbclid=IwAR3751mHDCrV4CoiuYRN-c1jdlXZFYpIO9B2ud7qNcel3WcziWwkzTA5Wlo
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The evidence is clear.
We are witnessing the collapse of the world grain supply!
Remember that old expression to be on or below the “Bread Line”?
There’s a reason for it!
https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/world/asia-pacific/20230405-101753/?fbclid=IwAR0NuxINmPalrZEkAoHiCR0z4-G3yJDSw-ZE_yJ_lhyDkoylHmdqMkpXFSs
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“All of the crops are completely flooded and ruined,” resident Martina Sealy said as she held her baby daughter and gazed out across white-capped water, where vast fields of cotton and alfalfa had grown all her life. “It takes a lot of jobs for people. That’s a lot of food that we provide for up and down California and all around the nation. It’s pretty scary.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/15/us/tulare-lake-california-flood-climate/index.html?fbclid=IwAR3MgqvUwaJmubcf9tszXeWcLv9JiWRcWRh-V5SRnUDeEYrPnroMuafn3ys
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“Michael Dowd ·
Here’s my half-hour audio narration of a truly excellent April-May 2023 GQ (UK) feature article on Deep Adaptation and Jem Bendell: “The doom seer of climate chaos”. It’s well worth your time, I promise!”
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Thanks so much, Kevin!
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No food growing here for a while, the land will be toxic after the flood waters recede!
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And then there are the continuing never-ending stream of tornadoes ripping through the US Midwest. With the shifting and spreading out of what has been traditionally considered ‘Tornado Alley,’ along with the seemingly year-round season… Wrecked farms across the grain-growing regions means nowhere to live and all the farm machinery gets wrecked.
This was yesterday and posted a few hours ago. Multiple vortices clearly visible. Dr. Reed Timmer is nuts to get this close:
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Then there is the extremely fast melting off of the California snowpack this last couple weeks. Reservoirs are filling back up but so is the Central Valley farmlands. Overflowing rivers & creeks as the huge snowpack ‘atmospheric river’ covered the Sierra with. There’s plenty of that going also posted to youtube. That’s going to cause some problems in food production but once the heat hits with El Nino the water is going to disappear fast I would think.
Damn Kevin, it’s going off everywhere isn’t it? Add the sudden heat in the Indian sub-continent for the start of their growing season…too much to keep up with at this point. I could spend all day reading current conditions in the world-wide ‘grain’ band…
And last night it snowed here after raining for a few hours. By 1am my roof was coated and all melted off this morning. Still only 6’C outside after Noon and that’s with windchill not added in. Coat weather even with the Sun popping out as the cloud masses stream quickly s/e. Strong upper level winds.
The ride gets wilder…
sealintheSelkirks
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More confirmation that we’re on the highway to hell
https://desdemonadespair.net/2023/04/global-rice-shortage-in-2023-is-set-to-be-the-biggest-in-20-years-at-the-global-level-the-most-evident-impact-of-the-global-rice-deficit-has-been-and-still-is-decade-high-rice-pr.html?fbclid=IwAR3r8ee27hY_85Cf1M7jr5GKULasz6BzUkpNhyLPw21kWpGymQwW-C62LNg
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“The government has requested emergency funds from the European Union to support farmers and ranchers whose crops are being affected by the situation.”
https://desdemonadespair.net/2023/05/spain-records-hottest-and-driest-april-on-record-this-is-the-worst-period-that-we-have-had-for-the-last-100-years.html?fbclid=IwAR0rLMsB03v6HWAPCfKuWZIknF0X9djt70IXFQwucP_TuuCp0TPtJPi_P7M
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“Drought now affects 60% of the Spanish countryside, with crops like wheat and barley likely to fail entirely in four regions, the main Spanish farmers’ association said on Thursday.”
“Spain’s long-term drought is causing “irreversible losses” to more than 3.5 million hectares of crops, the Coordinator of Farmers’ and Ranchers’ Organizations (COAG in its Spanish acronym) said in a new report.”
https://apnews.com/article/spain-drought-andalusia-agriculture-crops-climate-change-8c6f8be6b09dc0e905c9c7fcf0a89f6f
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Drought in Spain, heat dome in Canada getting stronger, Africa absolutely dead dry farms, shutting down river deltas with more dams to be built in Southeast Asia the fisheries collapse due to blocking needed nutrients. And the entire region is seeing extreme heat temps, too. Look at Thailand, Laos, others this last week.
So here is about rivers:
https://nautil.us/the-oceans-are-missing-their-rivers-302187/?utm_source=pocket-newtab
sealintheSelkirks
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It’s nice to see another person writing about the unfolding global famine.
https://collapsesurvivalsite.com/reasons-theres-going-to-be-a-global-famine/?fbclid=IwAR09t6ZXvoVji40HdH7Fl7ALk_yu40obGmPQFZJRlc1yeoRcuI7Kh_qWywo
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A key detail in this post is that the critical food growing region is parched.
This is just one area that food production will plumet.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151366/spain-browned-by-drought?utm_source=FBPAGE&utm_medium=NASA+Earth&utm_campaign=NASASocial&linkId=215918208&fbclid=IwAR1DIjN10xCqVv-FjmHP2IA3zmIpxNzncmVZjqy9RljVYzz-Mjvw83c3kUE
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This popped up yesterday from Pakalolo with quite scary heat and rainfall prediction maps added. Isn’t looking good but you already knew that:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/23/2170699/-Billions-will-be-pushed-out-of-their-climate-niche-by-2030-from-rising-temperatures
sealintheSelkirks
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Great that you’ve sorted out your connection issues mate, we would have missed you!
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The old webmaster called me this morning and he walked me through the new hosting site he sent me to, and then told me what to do and what to tab to get it all up and running since he’s out of the loop now. I don’t know how to be my own webmaster!
Hopefully it all will stay up and working correctly again since I was able to post this. It tried a couple days ago and WordPress wouldn’t let me in since it couldn’t find my email to verify that there was such an email address on the web. That’s insane, isn’t it?
I did find, however, that due to the couple of months of turmoil that led to what I sent you in the email, there are emails that are now just getting to me as they were backed up somewhere in web nowhere land. Some are two months old!
Another order for my book came in a couple of days ago, too, that I didn’t know about. Since I have almost 300 emails to go through today Wed 24May, I probably won’t get to do much of anything else but answer people!
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Southern Selkirk Range Weather:
Shifted again to a flow from the south with giant very dark gray T-cloud masses full of booming thunder and lightning bolts (but I’m not seeing those yet) quickly heading for Canada after a mostly blue sky morning. Concussions are vibrating the walls so some are close. Splatters of rain, too, but not like the quick micro-burst downpours on Monday yet. From the look out the window, I should be expecting those anytime.
sealintheSelkirks
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As if the food predicament wasn’t bad enough!
https://www.kxan.com/top-stories/ap-top-headlines/wheat-prices-rise-following-collapse-of-major-dam-in-southern-ukraine/amp/?fbclid=IwAR2U5JO4C8fBHl5iN2HIPN6Uvvopn61adRBpLwmosrnz9HUhTMVxADfxaCo
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Don’t shoot the messenger.:
https://globalnews.ca/news/9761043/dry-spring-southern-albertan-farmers-zero-production/?fbclid=IwAR2IFINyeZ3JS-szh-wKuAAicxFLg93h4Y1_oD0XSqR4iY_JN1jJtGCFfb8
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“New Research Suggests Wheat Crops May Be Threatened by Unprecedented Heat and Drought
A new study from the Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University shows the likelihood of extreme weather in wheat-producing areas of the U.S. and China has increased significantly.”
https://now.tufts.edu/2023/06/02/new-research-suggests-wheat-crops-may-be-threatened-unprecedented-heat-and-drought?fbclid=IwAR3KDTB4Z2dSRmm8mQDP6VQWfcJ8Ka4CiuZ87x55CDUvWzEdGt8ogxYpGrM
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More evidence:
https://www.legalreader.com/a-moment-to-consider-food-system-collapse/?fbclid=IwAR0nWj07ZsAl5SDnHWLMJYSknoQe6fDH6FY9TqXaHcrWKxd8ZObL9FRRWNk
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Violent derecho flattens corn crops in Illinois with 100-mph winds
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/derecho-with-100-mph-winds-flattens-corn-crops-illinois
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Impact of deficient rainfall
“The overall shortfall in pulses area is a result of cumulative rainfall during the ongoing monsoon season from June 1 to July 11 being 23% below the historical normal average for this period in Maharashtra, 26.2% in Karnataka and 30.9% in Telangana. This is as against a rainfall surplus of 155.4% recorded by Rajasthan during this period.”
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/why-arhar-could-be-the-problem-pulses-crop-this-time-8827232/?utm_source=Express_Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletterid-26,newslettername-ie-explained-daily,itemposition-3,
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George Monbiot catching up to me and Guy!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/15/food-systems-collapse-plutocrats-life-on-earth-climate-breakdown?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR1vlJJqw7uHLwmAPLziLY-_S6RDD5NeHzL_CTQNwf1wcbBVBlD6YIjXSaM
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Italy’s cereal harvest could be 60% down – farm groups
Copa and Cogeca blame poor weather conditions.
https://www.ansa.it/english/news/2023/07/17/italys-cereal-harvest-could-be-60-down-farm-groups_f7c67fec-2830-4213-a502-db2fa96ca0d0.html?fbclid=IwAR3Sj4MZQosT6yebELjV-AqjrU_xOvdYuIKp6g_HO9nLnzLs4kDpYH0H8ZM
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USA to register its smallest wheat harvest since 1957 in year 2023/24: USDA
https://www.millingmea.com/usa-to-register-its-smallest-wheat-harvest-since-1957-in-the-year-2023-24-usda/?fbclid=IwAR3JKRVBS0zMIYx7h87_L9dEOtIz7GDJro4f5RX_Zc252gTEsyb296okm_A
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Big agribusiness corporations have covertly captured key talks on the future of global food systems.
https://www.thecanary.co/global/world-analysis/2023/07/25/big-agribusiness-corporations-have-covertly-captured-key-talks-on-the-future-of-global-food-systems/
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“We are entering a humanitarian doom loop — where we save people who are starving, at the cost of millions of others falling closer into that same category,” he said.
Voila, it’s a predicament, not a problem.
The implications of this for the poorest of us is terminal.
This unavailability of food will destabilise large cities, it could easily collapse an entire city, province, country.
Once it’s happened anywhere all faith in this set of living arrangements will go up in flames.
The dominoes are teetering.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-05/global-rice-crisis-el-ino-ukraine-war-cause-food-security-fears/102660990?fbclid=IwAR2fjJ3g47bcv-DLZyZFfr0CzwvyD-bZuD856XT0vYN1QV4_ttIIo2x4Xjk
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As we predicted.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/sep/07/major-disruptor-el-nino-threatens-the-worlds-rice-supplies?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco&fbclid=IwAR3DJDXGkZQUb948i4FxRxJ8UXujZ1vNlB26KaorIOhvjJwZGj6xN-tS2Yg
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I have no idea about this controversy, but since it’s down in your neck of the woods and it concerns local food production:
Tanzanian farmers are paying for “conservation” with their land and lives
For over 15 years, small farmers and pastoralists in Tanzania’s Mbarali have been facing threats of eviction, criminalization and violent attacks by the state to expand the Ruaha National Park
https://peoplesdispatch.org/2023/10/16/tanzanian-farmers-are-paying-for-conservation-with-their-land-and-lives/
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sealintheSelkirks
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It isn’t just human that are running out of food supplies. Many whale species are plankton and krill eaters, and I noticed that there is a new cure-all vitamin supplement being touted as a cure-all: Krill Pills!
No shit. Costco has this new wonder prominently displayed in an ad recently so I’m guessing there are giant ships sailing the Southern Ocean vacuuming up krill in huge amounts while killing and dumping over the side all sorts of other species they don’t want.
Big sigh. Stupid humans.
It’s bad enough that the oceans are so fucking noisy with human-produced sound that whales can’t even hear one another’s songs to be able to find a mate, but now even the Weather Channel (owned by IBM) is saying…wait for it…climate ‘change’ is causing mass strandings/death of whales.
Oh ya think?
https://weather.com/nature/wild-animals/video/scientists-find-reason-for-mass-whale-strandings
sealintheSelkirks
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“A climate scientist and research associate at Dartmouth College, Corey Lesk, offers the final quote in the Axios paper: “It’s pretty much every summer now that a record-breaking heatwave is happening, not just in one breadbasket, but multiple breadbaskets around the world. We are currently heading into a climate regime that we have never seen before.”
https://guymcpherson.com/hubris-essay-november-2023/
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This popped up on the weather channel:
https://weather.com/news/climate/video/el-nino-expected-to-increase-food-scarcity-in-some-places
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“This could be one of the strongest El Ninos on record.” That does NOT bode well for parts of the planet.
sealintheSelkirks
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How to Collapse: Mass Starvation
The biggest threat to human survival is the sustainability of key crops under the stresses of rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns.
https://www.collapse2050.com/how-to-collapse-food-scarcity/?fbclid=IwAR1LxNr3sdVNXveAet5hcc_yWvfexEPjp8tlQFQja4u46VO0w1Sgl4Bmteg
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