“I have reported on the dire impacts of global peak oil at guymcpherson.com for many years. My reports from August 2007 onward indicate the potential for peak oil to terminate industrial civilization. Information I discovered a few years later indicates that stopping or even slowing industrial activity will cause our extinction. Our extinction could result from a reduction in aerosol masking or the meltdown of some of the world’s nuclear facilities. The latter phenomenon would cause stratospheric ozone to be stripped away, thereby causing extremely rapid planetary heating. Again, I have reported these findings previously in this space. Responses to my freely available work, rooted in evidence, have included denial, non-evidentiary argumentation, and a coordinated defamation campaign that effectively removed me from public service. But enough about me.”
“A reduction in aerosol masking has caused regional increases in temperature that have led to regional increases in precipitation, as indicated by peer-reviewed research I have shared in this space. Fortunately, these impacts have not yet gone global. Rather, they have remained regional in scope, beginning in the area around Wuhan, China, where the pandemic broke out. Regional increases in temperature and subsequent increases in precipitation followed the pandemic to India, Europe, and the northeastern United States.”
All of the analysis above is via Professor Guy McPherson’s Substack post Titled: Science Snippets: Global Peak Oil Remains an Existential Threat
Colleagues and I in the dynamic group Peak Oil have previously debated this subject. Join us for the latest developments as we circle the drain of Peak Oil triggered collapse.
Readers of this blog know that I concentrate on the climate and extinction crises and the contemporaneous issue of the re-rise of fascism and unfolding collapse. Collapse isn’t an event, it’s a process, a process that is clearly underway.
Aotearoa New Zealand has just closed it’s one and only oil refinery, yes, you read that right! I filled out an Official Information Act submission to find out what are NZ’s strategic reserves. The government department responsible refused to divulge what we have in reserve! We are led by Donkeys.
Not having a refinery means we’d suffer societal collapse in a matter of weeks of a blockade of our territorial waters being enforced, by whoever, “Friend or Foe”. Remember France was supposedly our ally when they blew up the Greenpeace Rainbow Warrior murdering Fernando Pereira in downtown Tamaki Makaurau.
The Insanity of Aotearoa New Zealand Closing it’s One and Only Oil Refinery
I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.
Kevin Hester 
“Donkeys” is an extremely NICE way of describing current leaders.
They are leading us…over the cliff!
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“As of Monday, outage volumes stood at about 240,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. However, the ultimate damage to production will likely exceed that number.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/17/wildfires-burn-millions-of-acres-in-canada-send-oil-prices-higher.html?fbclid=IwAR1U9eAsehlN0qxmRxmZuFSc68V0vju33EFBKm1Fr5SuHBLtHEs3KSaYKWQ
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I still miss Mike Rupert.
I just discovered this masterpiece from 2005. Mike didn’t get it all right but he was on point.
R.I.P. Scout.
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[…] Global Peak Oil Remains an Existential Threat […]
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“One barrel of oil has the same amount of energy of up to 25,000 hours of hard human labor, which is 12.5 years of work. At $20 per hour, this is $500,000 of labor per barrel. The average American consumes over twenty-five barrels per year. So each of us has a huge subsidy of energy behind the scenes that we often take for granted. Less oil, and much more expensive oil, will have huge implications.”
https://www.collapse2050.com/looming-oil-crisis/?fbclid=IwAR0QIMJhiQhWUsaPmjplsA8QQ_F6d0ErEkdYyxbQCuJWpQsUStO6-jkbt8A
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Gails latest masterpiece delves into the compounding consequences of “Peak Oil” and the reality that we are now seeing the Peak Oil – Oil Wars.
The empire of chaos has been stealing Syria’s oil since they tried to overthrow Bashar Al Assad 13 years ago.
As we watch the Apartheid State carpet bombing Gaza, and Damascus airport a few days ago, we see them trying to link Iran to the unrest in occupied Palestine, when the real issue is the occupation.
In a recent video Nate Hagens said that 50% of the world’s oil is located within a 1000miles of Israel. That’s why the settler state of Israel was formed in 1948. The USA’s unsinkable aircraft carrier in the Middle East
Iran has the ability to close the Straits of Hormuz, through which over 25% of the world’s oil and gas is shipped.
What’s the long-term forecast? More and more war.
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Alice Friedemann8 m · When I first published this post in February of 2022, I said that peak world oil production might have arrived, but it takes 5 years in the rear-view mirror to call it. Now peak “crude oil including lease condensate oil” is officially here! Production was less in November 2023 than the peak of global oil production in November 2018. See for yourself at the U.S. Energy Information Administration site here. You can ignore all the other liquids, they do not make diesel fuel for heavy-duty trucks, locomotives, and ships that do the actual work of civilization. Mainly the other categories are good for plastics, which we have more than enough of. Or ethanol for gasoline, but you’d destroy a diesel engine if you added this to extend diesel fuel. I suspect these categories were added to keep people from panicking like they did in the oil crises of 1973 and 1979. Why would they panic? There is a very tight correlation between fossil production, GDP, and population.Unconventional shale oil was responsible for over 90% of the increased production above the 2008 plateau with a little help from Canadian tar sands.Seven of the eight U.S. shale basins are past peak, with only the Permian producing the majority of fracked oil. And it may peak in 2024 (Geiger 2022). Or not, some scientists think the USA shale oil production could be on a plateau until 2040. But at any rate, when shale oil and gas decline, will be a hell of a rollercoaster ride down, since shale oil declines 80% over 3 years. And already 81% of all the other oil production is declining at 8.5% a year, offset by 4.5% enhanced oil recovery.As the energy crisis in Europe deepens, there could be a sudden mad rush of capital to explore, drill, and produce more oil which would keep the plateau going a bit longer.But wars, natural disasters, the export land model (the few oil producing nations left keep the oil for their own population and factories), plus other factors and black swans could also throw a monkeywrench in the works and cause oil production to fall rapidly.
Peak Oil is Officially Here! World oil production peaked November of 2018 | Peak Everything, Overshoot, & Collapse (energyskeptic.com)
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(91) Global Oil Depletion | Alister Hamilton – YouTube
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“Oil consumption and GDP have a statistically perfect correlation—the correlation coefficient (r²) is 0.95. “
Peak Oil is Dead–Long Live Peak Oil | Art Berman
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A Tale of Two WorldviewsMatter-energy systems vs socioeconomic-political monetary culture
A Tale of Two Worldviews. Matter-energy systems vs… | by Eric Lee | Apr, 2024 | Medium
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Champagne anyone?
LNG the Champagne of Energy (youtube.com)
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The Oil Crash Is Coming Sooner Than We Think
We’re running out of time to make choices
The Oil Crash Is Coming Sooner Than We Think (planetcritical.com)
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At the 3m mark Scott Ritter said that Biden has reduced the strategic reserve down to only 17 days and then he discusses Iran closing the strait of Hormuz. This is the pointy end of Peak Oil!
US Marine Scott Ritter: “As an American I’m am SCARED over what’s about to happen” | Redacted News (youtube.com)
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17 million barrels of oil passes through the Straits of Hormuz every day.
Iran could stop it tomorrow, if they get pissed off enough!
~1/2 of the world’s exportable oil travels through a ~2 mile wide channel in the Strait of Hormuz. (youtube.com)
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Behaving like junkies
The Oil Crash Is Coming Sooner Than We Think – resilience
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$200 a barrel of oil?
There is one glaring mistake. He said if Iran closes the straits of Hormuz, China would side with the USA.
Iran won’t close the straights to the independent states, they are way to savvy for that!
(2) The Trigger For ‘Full On War’, Energy Price Explosion | Robert Ryan – YouTube
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“What happens after fossil fuels?
My comic Energy Slaves is a companion piece to my earlier comic Peak Oil, which reflects on the history and future of the petroleum industry.
The take-home message from Peak Oil is that no matter how much we may want to keep increasing our fossil fuel production, we are limited by geophysical factors. Unfortunately, we have already tapped the largest and easiest oil wells. We now face declining discoveries and, therefore, al”
Diminishing returns: understanding ‘net energy’ and ‘EROEI’ (stuartmcmillen.com)
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This is a great explanation of peak oil
How To Boil A Frog presents Peak Oil pt. 3 – EROI (youtube.com)
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Popular Barrel of Oil Equivalent Conversions
Start with one of the Barrel of Oil Equivalent conversions below:
Barrel of Oil Equivalent Conversion Chart and Calculator (citizenmaths.com)
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“War in the East, war in the West, war up North, war down South, everywhere there’s War!” Bob Marley
Art often uses the term “Energy Blind”, it sums this culture up brilliantly!
All wars are resource wars, and the low hanging fruit has been picked long ago.
At the 31-minute mark Art describes this civilisation as a “Jenga Stack” an analogy I’ve used myself and it came up on a Zoom call earlier today with Guy McPherson
As always, the discussion slips into “Hopium”, Art doesn’t grasp that it’s a predicament not a problem!
Planet: Critical: Energy Wars | Art Berman on Apple Podcasts
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What a fascinating, thought-provoking discussion. One screaming conclusion for me was the reality of enormous amounts of money, borrowed from the future, to repair existing infrastructure. This new debt isn’t Capital Expenditure, It’s “Maintenance.” There is no new income or dividends from that expenditure. It only gets us back to where we were before the storm! Rinse and repeat until the lights go out!
Dustbowl Diatribes S 3, Ep. 18: David Holmgren on Energy Descent Scenarios and Climate Change (youtube.com)
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How about Global Peak Methane? Oops!
Methane Emissions Worldwide Rising at Fastest Pace in Decades, Study Finds
https://www.ecowatch.com/methane-emissions-rising-climate-change.html
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I really can’t find any good news anymore, Kev. I apologize!
sealintheSelkirks
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Orban is punished for not playing the NATO lap dog role currently occupied by Germany.
We’ll see much more of this as we hear that slurping sound of “Peak Oil”!
🔴 EU and Zelensky Cut Off Oil for Hungary & Slovakia to Send a Message as PM Orban Pushes for Peace – YouTube
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Another fascinating dive into the “Carbon Pulse” which hurtled us to total domination of the planet.
Neils slides on the coal seams and extraction going back to 1712 reiterate my point that the IPCC using 1880 as a baseline ignores centuries of anthropogenic emissions.
Why ignore the Bronze age and Iron age emissions?
This is a really cool series of discussions that are only getting better:
https://guymcpherson.substack.com/p/rocks-for-jocks-part-two-a-discussion
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Imagine burning Whales, Birds and Fish so we can read at night?
Yes, burning oily fish and birds as a lantern! WTAF? WTH worked that out?
In the days of square rigger ships, the navigators used the stench from Whaling stations in the Pacific to assist in navigation!
A yacht skipper I sailed with hit a whale in his steel yacht just off Great Barrier Island once. The impact killed the whale and sprayed blood & blubber on the yacht, he told me he could smell it months later, despite washing the boat continually!
Then came the “Carbon Pulse” of gasoline becoming an endemic fuel around the planet when it was originally a waste product!
In 2021 we produced 99 million barrels of oil per day, digest that for a second. There is no other addiction on that scale
Incredible to know there were over 600 electric car recharging stations in 1916 in Chicago, over a hundred years later, there’s only about 3500!
This article has some incredible data and slides showing how we got corralled into this mess!
The collaboration between these two academics gets better every time, I highly recommend the series!
https://guymcpherson.substack.com/p/rocks-for-jocks-part-three-a-discussion/comments
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[…] I’ve added the video below to the comments section of my blog post on Peak Oil titled “Global Peak Oil Remains an Existential Threat” […]
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The Return of Peak Oil: Why It Matters and What’s Next – Peak Prosperity
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvxA5gi-fuM&t=1335s
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Brilliant blog from Tim:
Peak oil returns
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$150 bucks a barrel?
I’ve been rabbiting on about the straits of Hormuz, here I go again!
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And yet this is reality. A cut from counterpunch’s weekend Roaming Charges list:
Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory on Hawai’i’s Big Island peaked for the year at 430.5 ppm, 3.6 ppm higher than last year and the second largest May-May increase in the 67-year Mauna Loa record. In 2023, the CO2 peaked at 424 ppm. Just wait until you see next year’s numbers!
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Burn baby burn, eh?
sealintheSelkirks
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Doug dives into the dynamics around the war on Iran. All wars are resource wars, and the black, liquid gold is the most important of them all!
(128) It’s Happening — And It’s WAY Too Late to Stop It | COL. Douglas Macgregor – YouTube
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This is a spectacularly good analysis, bringing up many aspects of our predicament I hadn’t considered, added below for additional context. Happy to be a new subscriber.
The World Isn’t Prepared for What Just Happened to Oil
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Another absolute master class yet again from Gail.
I’ll parse out a few important paragraphs.
“I expect that the methods used to try to work around oil limits will lead to fragility in many parts of the economic system. The financial system and international trade are particularly at risk. Ultimately, collapse over a period of years seems likely.”
To reiterate my interpretation of collapse, it’s not an event, it’s an unfolding process.
“It is also well known that OPEC’s (unaudited) oil reserves appear to be vastly overstated.”
I’ve been saying that Saudi reserves especially can’t be trusted. When they first started looking at taking ARAMCO to the stock market there reserves ‘remarkably’ jumped up.
I think the same about Fort Knox, I bet there isn’t have the gold inside that appears on the balance sheet.
“Recession seems to happen, with a lag, as shown on Figure 6. Recessions on this figure are noted with gray bars.”
I note in Figure 6 that the USA hasn’t had a deep recession since 2007. The Great Recession was a severe and global economic downturn from 2007 to 2009 that was triggered primarily by the collapse of the U.S. housing market and the resulting financial crisis. We barely dodged contagion in the banking system, we won’t continue to be ‘lucky’, soon ‘quantitative easing’ will be exposed as the counterfeiting it really amounts to.
The next ‘blip’ was the 2020 ‘event’, where all of the Western nations, NZ included plucked billions out of the air to stay afloat, so the USA is long overdue a recession based on cyclical history, for what that’s worth anymore.
[9] The climate change narrative is another way of attempting to reduce oil demand, and thus crude oil prices.
When I first read climate change narrative I cringed because it’s widely used by the denier clique but Gail brilliantly frames it: “This narrative makes trying to work around a fossil fuel shortage a virtue, rather than something that needs to be done to prevent calamity from happening.”
Absolutely laser guided.
” When oil supply is stretched, we don’t recognize the symptoms. One symptom is refinery closures in some oil importing areas, such as in California and Britain. This will make future oil supply less available. Other symptoms seem to be higher tariffs (to motivate increased manufacturing near home) and increasing hostility among countries.”
Another example is Aotearoa NZ insanely closing its only oil refinery.
I wrote about that idiocy; “The Insanity of Aotearoa New Zealand Closing it’s One and Only Oil Refinery.”
I had to read/listen to this great work twice to grasp its intricacies and then again to write this critique.
Why oil prices don’t rise to consistently high levelsOur Finite World
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This was from yesterday:
BREAKING: TRUMP DEPLOYS MARINES TO VENEZUELA & SENDS WARSHIPS | The Kyle Kulinski Show
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFdtdp8ivvs
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This popped up today:
Venezuela mobilizes 4.5 million militia members as US deploys troops to the Caribbean
Maduro activates Bolivarian National Militia in response to US “threats”, vowing to defend the country’s sovereignty and independence.
https://peoplesdispatch.org/2025/08/20/venezuela-mobilizes-4-5-million-militia-members-as-us-deploys-troops-to-the-caribbean/
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DJT’s fossil fuel backers, the men who own this country and funded his ‘campaign,’ not only paid for his “Drill, Drill, Drill’ platform of cutting all environmental regulations (along with so much more!), but certainly have been wanting total access and control to the largest known oil fields on the planet. And having some ‘Socialist’ government overseeing it is most definitely not to their liking!
Along with making his financial backers happy, he probably wants to be in a war so he has an excuse to cancel the mid-term elections next year. About the time the Trump-caused Republican Great Depression II really starts roaring…just like the last Republican Great Depression of the 1930s.
But historically this country has always voted during wars because there have been so many of them that if the politicians had cancelled elections every time we’d only be on maybe our 15th president not the 47th I would guess…
Shit be fucked up in this Fascist Militarized Police State, dude.
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I find Nate overtly optimistic but there are some great graphs and details confirming that all the ‘low hanging fruit’ has been harvested.
The USA is currently stalking Venezuela; it’s no coincidence that they are a Petro state!
Let’s not lose sight of the reality that all the current war mongering is squandering the primary lubricant of industrial civilisation, that can’t function without liquid hydrocarbons.
Peak Oil, Ponzi Pyramids, and Planetary Boundaries | Frankly 109
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A veritable masterpiece from John!
World Fossil Fuels Discoveries and Production
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