“The last time the tropical Pacific ran this hot, millions of people starved. The El Niño of 1877 triggered crop failures from India to Brazil and is considered one of the deadliest climate events in recorded history. Now, three of the world’s most authoritative climate forecasting centers are converging on a signal that has not appeared with this level of agreement in modern meteorology: a Super El Niño that could match or exceed that catastrophic benchmark before the end of 2026.”
Super El Niño could surpass the 1877 record — every major forecast model now shows 100% probability
Will Climate Change Terminate the United States?
“A developing El Niño could bring more than shifts in seasonal storm tracks as humanitarian officials are warning that a possibly strong event could disrupt food production, water supplies and fisheries in vulnerable regions around the world.”
“AccuWeather meteorologists say El Niño is expected to develop around the start of summer and could reach “super El Niño” status as early as October or November. Later in 2026 or around the start of 2027, it may rival some of the strongest El Niño events in history.” Super El Niño could strain food and water supplies around the world
What happened in 1877
“A historic super El Niño occurred from 1877 to 1878. A NOAA paper found that the 1877/78 super El Niño may have been one of the strongest such events on record.”
“According to The Week, this resulted in droughts and mass famine across the world. At least 50 million people were left dead – around three to four per cent of the world’s population – in the Great Drought.”
In 1877, a super El Niño killed millions. How deadly will it be this year?
I’ve been anticipating this El Niño since 2023, the time of consequences beckons.
At the link below Professor McPherson and I discuss the implications the El Niño on the Arctic Sea Ice minimum that usually occurs around mid-September.
The Convergence of the Next El Niño–Southern Oscillation & the Arctic Sea Ice Minimum
Professor Steve Keen is predicting severe famines due to the loss of fertilizer from West Asia, where Western Barbarians are laying siege to the Cradle of Humanity.
Will the Iran war trigger a global famine? Professor Steve Keen explains the 5 scenarios.
Did El Niño Cause the Worst of the Previous Mass Extinction Events?
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Asalamu Alaikum, Amandla Ngawhetu, Tiocfaidh ár lá.
I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.
Kevin Hester 
This is a good follow up analysis.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yu7oJpkrl2M&t=18s
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But wait, there’s more:
https://futurism.com/science-energy/el-nino-weather-historic-warming?fbclid=IwY2xjawR58Y9leHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZBAyMjIwMzkxNzg4MjAwODkyAAEeOvX-iEo89W7yRwOErYigXq4jSceZ38Yqlnal3GZ8q8trTPahMy-weAXFSXU_aem_yuIrsk7yA_0UBS1a4Pyvuw
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Great work from Wion.
India’s Extreme Heatwave, Deadly China Floods: | Super El Nino Threat Grows | WION Wideangle
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More confirmation of trouble on the horizon.
El Niño Is About To Explode Across The Pacific!
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And in the North Pacific, marine scientists are just a wee bit nervous so to speak? At least according to this article.
“recent weeks has left climate scientists gobsmacked” sure doesn’t do much for my expectations. As in, HOLY SHIT!
Why an immense marine heatwave off the US west coast has alarmed scientists
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/22/marine-heatwave-west-coast?utm
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It’s most been above 80’F/25’C in the shade during the day these last few weeks..mixed with occasional t-storm blowing in and cooler temps, but the first 65’F day was the 1st of March! Which used to be considered ski season….
Looking at my calendar, it went from 40s-65’F until mid-April when it just flat spiked into the mid-70s and landed the first 85’F on the 20th. First 90’F day was 12May, and have had a couple big T-storm lightning/heavy downpours since mid-May along with heavy hail covering roofs and the ground out the window. I had to run out at one point to cover things up, and those little rocks from the sky hurt! Glad it wasn’t the absolutely gi-fucking-gantic hail hitting the south and mid-west parts of the country being blasted with tornadoes again. Have you seen the size of those damned things?
April used to bring surprise snowstorms. May had frosts right into June. Now it’s looking more like another 2021 when it hit the absolute record of 120’F in June. I see a very hot spot off the NW coast out in the Pacific. Where it should be much colder. I’m worried that’s going to go off again.
This really is not looking too good up here, Kev.
sealintheSelkirks
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Sam Carana
RECORD HIGH SST FOR TIME OF YEAR
On May 22, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E, inset also shows anomalies) sea surface temperature (SST) was the highest on record for this time of year.
Sea surface temperatures peak twice each year: in March/April (when it’s Summer in the Southern Hemisphere) and in August (when it’s Summer in the Northern Hemisphere).
There were La Niña conditions in early 2026, yet 2026 SST were close to and at times exceeded the record high SST reached in 2024, which was an El Niño year.
From now on, there will also be an El Niño in 2026. According to NOAA, there is 82% chance of an El Niño in May-July 2026 and 96% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.
Forecasts of sea surface temperature anomalies in El Niño regions partly exceeding 3.5°C indicate that the 2026-2027 El Niño will be even stronger than the 2015-16 El Niño and will be the strongest El Niño on record.
The immensity of the danger justifies keeping a close and watchful eye on the data, on research, on forecasts and projections.
From the post ‘Ocean heat threatens sea ice’, at:
Arctic News: Ocean heat threatens sea ice
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Brace for impact
The Atmosphere Is Doing Something It’s Never Done Before — Here’s What Comes Next
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How a monster ocean heatwave could fuel a super El Niño
How a monster ocean heatwave could fuel a super El Niño – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
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First tropical depression forms in the Eastern Pacific
Tropical Depression One-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific and is expected to become the first named storm, Amanda. There is a second area of interest, which could become Boris, that may threaten Mexico.
https://weather.com/2026/05/31/storms/hurricane/first-tropical-depression-forms-in-the-eastern-pacific
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My partner and his wife on Windward Side of O’ahu are quite worried, and they should be. El Nino could be hell for them, and wildfires for me.
sealintheSelkirks
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Coming El Niño will be the strongest ever recorded, new forecast predicts
“A June update by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggests that the coming weather event will be the strongest ever measured.”
Coming El Niño will be the strongest ever recorded, new forecast predicts | Live Science
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This Could Become the Most Powerful El Niño Ever Recorded
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