Isostatic rebound and our rocky future

“One example of where relatively small changes to geological stress can have a big impact on volcanic activity is the Pavlov volcano in Alaska. As McGuire describes, this volcano only erupts during Autumn and Winter. At that time storms ride up into a nearby ocean zone, pushing an average 10cm or 15cm rise in sea level. The added weight of the water is enough to torque the crust and push magma out. Now imagine the kind of extra volcanic activity that could result from 1, 6, or 250 feet of global sea level rise under the raging rate of human-caused warming and you begin to understand the concern.”We have let the Genie out of the bottle, It will never be the same again. 6C will melt most if not the entire ice caps. imagine how much ‘Torgue’ that will put on the plates?
Another great link from Robertscribbler

“Between about 20,000 and 5,000 years ago, our planet underwent an astonishing climatic transformation. Over the course of this period, it flipped from the frigid wasteland of deepest and darkest ice age to the – broadly speaking – balmy, temperate world upon which our civilisation has developed and thrived. During this extraordinarily dynamic episode, as the immense ice sheets melted and colossal volumes of water were decanted back into the oceans, the pressures acting on the solid Earth also underwent massive change. In response, the crust bounced and bent, rocking our planet with a resurgence in volcanic activity, a proliferation of seismic shocks and burgeoning giant landslides.
Climate Change will shake the Earth

“The disappearing ice, sea-level rise and floods already forecast for the 21st century are inevitable as the earth warms and weather patterns change – and they will shift the weight on the planet. Professor McGuire calls this process “waking the giant” – Something that can be done with just a few gigatonnes of water in the right – or wrong – place.The untold – and terrifying – story behind the earthquake that devastated Nepal last Saturday morning begins with something that sounds quite benign. It’s the ebb and flow of rainwater in the great river deltas of India and Bangladesh, and the pressure that puts on the grinding plates that make up the surface of the planet.Recently discovered, that causal factor is seen by a growing body of scientists as further proof that climate change can affect the underlying structure of the Earth.”

Our planet is always on the move, but sometimes it is more restless than usual. As the last ice age came to an end, around 10,000 years ago, there was a surge in volcanic activity as ice caps melted, decreasing pressure on the Earth’s crust.

Since then our planet has reached a steady state, with around 50 volcanoes erupting each year and around 150 earthquakes greater than magnitude six. But geo-hazards expert Bill McGuire is concerned that human-induced climate change may bring a resurgence in activity in the coming centuries. “In areas of major ice loss, such as Alaska, Iceland, the Andes and Himalayas we may see a rise in earthquakes, volcanism and landslides” says McGuire, who describes this scenario in Waking the Giant. “It only takes the pressure of a handshake to trigger a quake or volcanic blast in a primed system.”
Releasing the pressure on a restless earth
This blog has been edited on the 17 May 2018 to include this interview on Radio Ecoshock titled:  Earth Quake Time Bombs.

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Dropping Anchor in an Exponential World

I was interviewed in March by Nick Burk from Relief Analysis

“Kevin Hester’s unique journey has led him to the conclusion that we are perilously close to the extinction of all complex life on the planet. It is a passage that has encompassed a career of heartfelt activism in his native New Zealand that began by instilling a value system to never be prejudiced to his fellow human beings.”

“As a teenager, Mr. Hester was active in New Zealand’s anti-apartheid movement. During these formative years, the organization he worked for, H.A.R.T. (Halt All Racial Tours), received a letter from Nelson Mandela on Robbin Island, saying that his work had “shined a light into a very dark cell.” Mr. Hester has a broad and rich career in advocating for social and environmental justice that even included blockading a  vessel during the height of New Zealand’s anti-nuclear movement.”

Balance of the Relief Analysis post and interview here

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I’ve been caught plucking rubbish from the sea.

Paul Judge caught me plucking rubbish from the sea.

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“Love in the Time of Coral Reefs” by Ruth Mundy

My new , favourite,poignant  love song.
Lyrics here, You Tube performance embedded below.

“If only I had known you, in the time of coral reefs, before we lost the permafrost when there were Bears up there, were Bears up there.
We could have met, fallen in love, could have got  married and had kids, If we wanted, it could have been simple for us two simple for us  do you think we could have travelled, could we have managed a mortgage,sent our kids to local schools and campaigned to change the rules so that we wouldn’t pull the ladder up behind us like our parents did to us.
Could we have been better, done better?
If we’d loved before the seas  swallowed the coasts before the wild fires spread our heads only full of love, I would have loved you.

We would have made our vows on a Island nations drowned we’ve let them go ’cause we were richer they were poorer, we were better, they were worse … off.
So we watched them sink without a word, ignored the screams, ignored the screams, ignored the Gulf Stream slowing down, ignored the drip of melting ice,the drip drip drip of melting ice.

Do you remember when we still had time, if not to reverse things well at least not to cause worse things we decided not to, it was, easier not to.

Remember when we thought that it was windmills on hills that spoiled the landscape, remember the landscape? Remember the land?
If only I had known you in the time of coral reefs, before we lost the permafrost, when there were Bears up there, were Bears up there.”

Ruth Mundy “Love in the time of Coral Reefs”
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US Warships Returning to NZ – Nuclear Hotseat

I was interviewed for this show on Nuclear Hotseat due to a erroneous news item published in the US where it was reported that NZ has dropped our Nuclear Free legislation.
Whilst the US  has been invited back by Prime Minister John Key he has Yet to jettison the Nuclear legislation. We will have to keep the acid on the quisling on that issue.
Nicky Hager asserts that the dropping of the ” neither confirm nor deny” position confirms that our legislation has prevailed. NZ Herald article quoting  Valerie Morse for reference is  here
We will be organising demonstrations both on the water and the streets when the most brutal military in the world returns to NZ in November.

In the early eighties my yacht was sunk by the NZ Police, the parallels with what happened to Harvey Wasserman and Mimi German on their yacht as mentioned in the interview are stark.
My sinking was covered in previous blog post here

I’d like to thank Libbe HaLevy for the opportunity to put NZ’s case on Nuclear Hotseat.
The interview can be heard here

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Professor Guy McPherson on American Freedom Radio

Professor Guy McPherson will be touring New Zealand with me in November 2016 speaking about our unfolding climate catastrophe.
You can listen to his recent appearance on American Freedom Radio here
In the interview Professor McPherson discusses the phenomenon of Global Dimming.
There is a fantastic BBC documentary  which is embedded in a previous post from this blog here 

When Guy was in NZ in 2014 he had 39 feedback loops, now there are more than 65. His monster climate change essay with the list of positive feedback loops is embedded here

Guy mentions another superb article from Dahr Jamail, staff reporter at Truthout entitled Agriculture on the Brink which is embedded here

We are in the early stages of planning the tour but further details will be posted on this blog and Facebook Events will be created as the time draws closer.
If you are in NZ and want to be involved in hosting myself and Guy and / or organising a presentation in your area feel free to contact me here at the blog, via my Facebook wall or by email at kevin@iconicproperties.co.nz
Professor McPherson has a website GuyMcPherson.com and together with his colleague Mike Sliwa has a weekly radio show of the same name at prn.fm
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Global Dimming Keeping the Planet Habitable

If you have not already seen it,  visitors to this blog  will have an interest in this 50-min documentary, “BBC Global Dimming Documentary”, via Gail Zawacki at her Wit’s End blog.

It relates to evidence obtained from the three-day aircraft grounding that occurred after 9/11 and the profound effects that just the U.S. Commercial Aircraft Flying has on Earth’s atmosphere. (One degree Centigrade increase  within three days.)
Quoting Professor Guy McPherson ;
“The impact of the aerosol masking effect has been greatly underestimated, as pointed out in an 8 February 2019 article in Science. As indicated by the lead author of this paper on 25 January 2019: “Global efforts to improve air quality by developing cleaner fuels and burning less coal could end up harming our planet by reducing the number of aerosols in the atmosphere, and by doing so, diminishing aerosols’ cooling ability to offset global warming.” The cooling effect is “nearly twice what scientists previously thought.” That this February 2019 paper cites the conclusion by Levy et al. (2013) indicating as little as 35% reduction in industrial activity drives a 1 C global-average rise in temperature suggests that as little as a 20% reduction in industrial activity is sufficient to warm the planet 1 C within a few days or weeks.”
Guy and I both believe a serious economic crash could be the end of us!
None of these risks operate in a vacuum, they are all connected.

Imagine what the carbon footprint of the largest most brutal military on the planet must be?
“According to its own study, in 2013 the Pentagon consumed fuel equivalent to 90,000,000 barrels of crude oil. This amounts to 80% of the total fuel usage by the federal government. If burned as jet fuel it produces about 38,700,000 metric tons of CO2. And the Pentagon’s figures do not include carbon produced by the thousands of bombs dropped in 2013, or the fires that burned after the jets and drones departed.”
The Pentagon’s enormous, unacknowledged contribution to climate change
A reduction in US warmongering would buy the bio-sphere some critical time, fat chance of seeing that happen.

The documentary explains how global dimming fits within global heating, as well as reduced pan evaporation rate. (Sunlight photons serve as the most important variable in water evaporation, and global dimming reduces these photons by about 10%!). Increased small particle pollution turns clouds into sunlight mirrors because of water condensation on the small particles: at least ten times the number of particles and condensation than without the pollution. This greatly reduces the amount of the Sun’s energy coming through the atmosphere. Global heating (GH) due to CO2 tends to increase average atmospheric temperature while global dimming (GD) tends to reduce it, therefore reduced GD will greatly increase GH, within days, just as Professor Guy McPherson has emphasised in many of his presentations.

Guy  McPherson references this documentary often and we will be speaking about this phenomenon on his upcoming November 2016 New Zealand speaking tour.
Guy discusses the phenomenon here .

When the Industrial Revolution grinds to a halt and we cease emitting particulate pollutants into the atmosphere, more solar radiation will hit the earth and the oceans, vastly increasing the warming which will compound all the other effects happening now, remember also though there is a 10 to 30 year lag in cause and effect with our emissions and the ones now being generated as a result of the multitude of feedback loops that are now kicking in .
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Yet more evidence that we are absolutely fucked and can’t turn this unfolding catastrophe around. Brace for imminent impact, ” Only Love Remains” GMP.

This excellent documentary is embedded below;

BBC Global Dimming Documentary
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The Great Barrier Reef, Catastrophe Laid Bare

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I first dived the Great Barrier Reef about 15 years ago. At the time, a marine biologist in Cairns conducted a seminar that I attended, and said that the reef had only a generation of life left in it. Those we the days before abrupt climate change, when contemporary climate change awareness was in it’s infancy (George Perkins Marsh 1847 accepted) .
I don’t believe that my marine biologist tutor really understood how fast our climate change catastrophe would unfold, but his estimate on the reefs life expectancy appears spot on.

Read the below scientific analysis baring in mind the conservative default. I believe that they all know in their hearts that the reef systems on this planet are doomed to collapse and very soon, taking with it the oceanic incubator that forms the basis of the marine food web, that produces 50% of the human populations protein and 70% of the planets oxygen.

The biosphere of this planet is in dire peril.  In your heart, the readers of this blog knows it. I’m not here to sugar coat anything.

Despite the conservative U.N. calculates that we will be losing 150 to 200 species/day,  the real loses from the collapse of the marine food web would make those numbers pale to a fraction of what we could expect.

Cyclone Winston pummelled Fiji with wind speeds in excess of 220 miles/ hour then dumped an enormous amount of rain on the Australian coast and in the Coral Sea  cooling both had not Winston wrought it’s havoc, consider that the reef would have been in far worse shape.

Jack Williams Extreme Weather Events:  “The mechanism behind this incredible new trend is obvious and well understood. As Bloomberg Business week famously said on its cover after Hurricane Sandy, “It’s global warming, stupid.”

Since 1950, more than 90% of the excess heat our carbon emissions that have been trapped in the atmosphere, has gone into the oceans. As a result, their surface temperature has increased by 1C in just the past 35 years.

That puts the water,that much closer to the limit of what coral can bear. Then, when a surge of even warmer water comes through – often as a result of the irregular El Niño cycle – corals over large stretches get stressed, bleach and die.

So well understood is that mechanism, that satellite data on water temperature is a good proxy for coral bleaching. Using that understanding, the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration looks at satellite data and produces “bleaching alerts” that represent a predicted stress response from coral.

In data produced exclusively for the Guardian by Mark Eakin, head of Coral Reef Watch at Noaa, we can now reveal exactly how much stress ocean temperatures have been impacted the Great Barrier Reef over the 34 years that satellite data has been available.

Since 1982, just after mass bleachings were seen for the first time, the data shows that the average proportion of the Great Barrier Reef exposed to temperatures where bleaching or death is likely, has increased from about 11% a year to about 27% a year.

Looking at the data, Eakin says a clear trend that hadn’t been quantified before is upon us.  “In seeing that what it immediately showed was that there was a real background pattern of increasing levels of thermal stress.

Combined with other stressors hitting the reef, this is having a devastating impact.  Over that period, half the coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef has been lost – and that’s before the mass bleaching this year has been taken into account.

That data has limitations – it’s not direct bleaching, but stress inferred from temperature readings. And it lumps extreme levels of stress – like what is being seen around Lizard Island now – with anything that is expected to cause mortality.” End quote from Jack Williams.

Richard Vivers, The Ocean Agency: “It’s one of the largest die-offs in History“. Within the Guardian article below, be sure to watch the two embedded videos which are shared there:  The Great Barrier Reef A Catastrophe Laid Bare

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The Inevitability of Nuclear War and Subsequent Nuclear Winter

“So Far We Have Survived Nuclear Armageddon By Luck” Paul Craig Roberts

“The long lucky streak can’t go on forever. President Reagan understood this and focused on ending the Cold War. This achievement has been overturned by the evil neocons operating through the last three US presidents.”  click here for additional P.C.R. sourced article Ticking Closer to Nuclear Midnight.

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 “In a nuclear war, immense nuclear firestorms in burning cities would create millions of tons of thick, black, radioactive smoke. This smoke would rise above cloud level and quickly surround and engulf the entire Earth. The smoke would form a stratospheric smoke layer that would block sunlight from reaching the surface of Earth for a period of about ten years.  Heated smoke in the stratosphere would cause massive destruction of the protective ozone layer. Huge amounts of harmful Ultraviolet light would penetrate the smoke and reach the surface of the Earth.Warming sunlight would be blocked by the smoke layer and cause the Earth to rapidly cool. In a matter of days, Ice Age weather conditions would descend upon all peoples and nations.”

I believe that this will be how they slow down our runaway climate change catastrophe.  The concept of a nuclear orchestrated global dimming and hence cooling is laid out below:  Nuclear War Threatens Human Existence.

Carl Sagan on the possibility of a nuclear winter



I’m editing this blog post on 16/03/2022 in Aotearoa New Zealand to include this analysis from Caitlin Johnstone titled “The Huge Gap Between How Serious Nuclear War Is And How Seriously It’s Being Taken”.
There is an audio option in the link above.

An absolutely brilliant panel discussion on the nuclear precipice we are perched on.
Edited into my blog post on December 8, 2024.
WW3 is underway in Europe and West Asia, it’s the Military Industrial Congressional Complex!

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Each 1 Degree C We Warm the Planet adds an additional 7% Increase in Moisture into the Atmosphere.

For every 1 degree C we increase the temperature on the planet we see 7% more moisture in the atmosphere. We are heading to and beyond the IPCC worst case scenario of  6C minimum which will generate another 40% of moisture in the air. This will lead to a greater number of flooding events and increased number of lightning strikes and Tornadoes.
This is an enormous amount of energy and associated warming as water vapour is in itself a green house gas.

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The impact of climate change may be worse than previously thought, a new study suggests”:  As world leaders hold climate talks in Paris, research shows that land surface temperatures may rise by an average of almost 8C by 2100, if significant efforts are not made to counteract climate change.”

Personally I disagree with the suggestion that it will take until the magic 2100 for our locked in 8C temperature rise. Factor in the myriad of feedback loops and we could be there in a few decades,not that humans will survive that long to bare witness.

Such a rise would have a devastating impact on life on Earth:  ‘Climate Outlook May be Worse than Feared.’

The amount of water vapor in the atmosphere exists in direct relation to the temperature. If you increase the temperature, more water evaporates and becomes vapor, and vice versa. So when something else causes a temperature increase (such as extra CO2 from fossil fuels), more water evaporates. Then, since water vapor is a green house gas, this additional water vapor causes the temperature to go up even further—a positive feedback.”

Explaining how the Water Vapor Greenhouse effect works; Sceptical Science.

How much does water vapor amplify CO2 warming? Studies show that water vapor feed back roughly doubles the amount of warming caused by CO2. So if there is a 1°C change caused by CO2, the water vapor will cause the temperature to go up another 1°C. When other feedback loops are included, the total warming from a potential 1°C change caused by CO2 is, in reality, as much as 3°C.

“A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, and globally water vapour increases by 7% for every degree centigrade of warming.”

Excellent article and Q & A from The Guardian in the following link:  ‘How Will Climate Change Affect Rainfall?

Editing this new information into the blog from Sam Carana 06/09/2024


“How much more water vapor currently is in the atmosphere compared to pre-industrial depends on how much the temperature has risen since pre-industrial. The February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, which could be as much as 2.75°C above the pre-industrial temperature. A 2.75°C rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere.”
Water Vapor Feedback
Update 28th of January 2025:
Whilst this latest analysis of the interaction between the hydrological cycle and nitrogen runoff from land to creeks, rivers and eventually oceans, is based on a peer reviewed study in the Gulf of Mexico it is equally applicable in Aotearoa New Zealand.
The full script of this analysis and hyperlinks to the sources can be found at Professor McPherson’s Substack post titled Science Snippets: How Climate Change Causes a Polluted Gulf of Mexico

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Kevin Hester

Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water.  I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.

My Submission to the Ministry of the Environment
Kevin Hester, Dropping Anchor in an Exponential World
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