Collapse: The Only Realistic Scenario

This months guest on Nature Bats Last is Arthur Keller author of the You Tube Presentation “Collapse: The Only Realistic Scenario”.
Kevin and Guy were joined by Arthur Keller, who studies system dynamics. Initially a rocket scientist, Keller has become an author, screenwriter, and keynote speaker. We lost Arthur for a few moments but the technicians at the studio burst into life, recovered the signal with him and he saw out an interesting hour with us.

The episode is embedded here;


Arthur’s seminal You Tube Presentation: Collapse: The Only Realistic Scenario

I mentioned the work of Albert Bartlett and his contention that “The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race is our inability to understand the exponential Function” I’ve embedded that presentation for further reference

This interview continues a theme on NBL of non-linear changes we are witnessing. Grasping the significance of non-linearity is crucial to this predicament. Our previous guest Dr Andrew Glikson has a similar contention. That interview and corroborating evidence is embedded here;

Professor Paul Ehrlich was interviewed previously on this blog about his position on the coming collapse. That discussion is embedded here:

Good luck everyone

I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Arthur Keller, Collapse, Nature Bats Last, Professor Guy McPherson
101 comments on “Collapse: The Only Realistic Scenario
  1. Kevin Hester says:

    Via Just Collapse on Facadebook
    4 February at 17:53 ·
    At a ground-breaking event on collapse (Oct 2021), academics and activists spoke at the University of Tasmania, including the authors of the highly read and controversial Energies paper, ‘Through the Eye of a Needle: An Eco-Heterodox Perspective on the Renewable Energy Transition’.
    One audience member observed: ‘I listened to it live and constantly found myself asking, “Is this actually happening? Is this University legit? Are these academics truly telling it like they see it?” I concluded with the same take-away – that they’re no longer concerning themselves with “what ifs” or the typical “we can still act to save it all!” type of approach. Instead, they seemed like they were genuinely “bracing for impact” – and some of them looked and sounded downright scared. That freaked me out and threw me off in a way that I wasn’t expecting.’
    #TalkCollapse because everyone has a right to know what’s coming.


    • sealintheselkirks says:

      Here we go as this ‘progressive’ Democrats-will-save-us-if-only-we-get-rid-of-Trump oriented website (always posts whatever Mann is spouting, too, by the way) throws down some really bad news to its readership.

      There’s always a lot of comments that bleed hopium on so I’m sure you’ll appreciate the first paragraph of “scientists increasingly concerned” and “potentially resulting” which is about as close as they can get to saying YOU ARE FUCKED, PEOPLE. Yeah, well…

      Scientists Fear Soaring Methane Levels Show Climate Feedback Loop Has Arrived
      Rapidly rising levels of atmospheric methane are “very bad news for humanity and the planet,” warned one observer.

      It was 9C three days ago, brilliant sunshine warm sun through the windows…on 7Feb in the Selkirk Range? I’m kidding, right? Night-time temps are what the daytime temps should be. Yeah, well…again.

      Yesterday cooled some but today did the same, blue sky sunshine. It’s starting to give a scary feeling that winter is over already…like it did last year when the wildfires started up in March in this district instead of the last frost being in June. I’d have to look back on my old calendars to see when that last happened as I don’t remember right off the bat.

      This is not good but also not unexpected as how can I possibly not anticipate worse and worse outcomes?

      Remember the old adage ‘Knowledge is Power?’ Weeelll, I’m not feeling too good about the knowledge at this point because there isn’t a fucking thing I can do to change what’s coming. So I do what I can and handed out the Approaching Collapse Forum link to people that asked what the latest was on Monday in Chewelah. That’s about all I can accomplish anymore. It doesn’t feel like enough, Kevin, but there isn’t any more to give.


      Liked by 1 person

  2. Kevin Hester says:

    Andy has hit the nail on the head with the insanity of closing our only oil refinery. When war breaks out in the Pacific we’ll see the disruption of fuel supplies to Aotearoa New Zealand. Not having a refinery means we’ll see society break down within weeks of the blockade.
    Disclaimer; I worked on the Marsden Point Expansion project in the early 1980’s, I have oil and it’s emissions on my hands.


    • sealintheselkirks says:

      Yeah, you might find out that things will fall apart very quickly in New Zealand if the only way to move anything is by horse-drawn wagon or a person’s back! I expect we’ll find that happening all over.

      Here in these mountains the ignorant are all about becomes lords of all they survey from their armed compounds full of their followers/believers.

      Along with professing a deep and faithful love that they all worship Jee-sus who assures them that might makes right as usual. As if those two wildly opposing thoughts could possibly co-exist but the human brain is quite squishy…like putty, eh? What caliber weapon would Jee-sus carry I wonder?

      But regardless they’ll end up walking, too, because without their mechanized farm equipment and lot of gasoline there is no way that they can grow, move, and store enough feed for their horse-mounted army past the first winter. Not without ongoing shipments of petroleum just like NZ. The horses will starve to death except the ones in the wild maybe…

      No refineries around here, either, Kevin. And I’m sure whatever remains of armed gov authority will be ‘requisitioning’ any and all private fuel supplies they can get.

      Gas just jumped a dollar a gallon here supposedly due to the ‘sanctions’ on importing Russian oil. But then I recently read that the US is the number one oil producer in the world (adding in all the fracking wells everywhere I guess) so my question is why does the US need to import oil from anywhere? Much less from Russia or the Saudis who financed the World Trade Center attack. So why is the US exporting oil only to buy it from somebody else and import it? Ah, the subtleties of profit!

      The link was more not-fun reality. Seems to be a lot of that lately. And in 2 hours the mask mandates end in Washington State as Omicron’s baby, the new strain BA.2, spreads out like a gasoline fire in Asian and Europe. 61,000 died in the US in February but let’s get back to ‘normal’ so the wealthy can keep making money off of our labor as the elites threaten nuclear war over Ukraine. Collapse, baby, comes in many different shades of ugly.


      Liked by 1 person

  3. […] and extinction crises and the contemporaneous issue of the re-rise of fascism and subsequent collapse. Not having a refinery means we’d suffer societal collapse in a matter of weeks of a blockade […]


  4. Kevin Hester says:

    Excellent analysis from Jordan Perry


    • sealintheselkirks says:

      Had to load it from youtube as the link says unavailable.

      I’m 20 minutes in and I am aware of everything I’ve heard. These explanations seem more for people who just don’t get it. Or haven’t really accepted down in their guts that this is flat-out going to end and pretty goddamned soon.

      The reality is that we cannot ‘go out into the world and find food, and the invasive species that overruns the native ones make it even harder for the very few who can, is quite obvious. Who has the skills to even know that is edible beyond a few obvious ones.

      The fact that farming/ability to store food is what helped us get to this point in the destruction of the ecosystem that gave us life due to creating massive overpopulation that is quikly consuming the last of the resources so that even he admits we can’t change spit.

      Big sigh. So I’m doing what I can on this little piece of ridgeline. That’s all I can do. I even let loose Chinese Knapweed flying weevils in 2008, a biocontrol instead of using fucking herbicides. This property hasn’t had anything sprayed over it since I’ve lived here. I will, as David B suggested, just enjoy what little wild life is still left while it is still alive because there will be a time when it won’t be…along with this body I inhabit.

      50% of U.S. Lakes and Rivers Are Too Polluted for Swimming, Fishing, Drinking

      Fifty years ago, the U.S. passed the Clean Water Act with the goal of ensuring “fishable, swimmable” water across the U.S. by 1983.
      Now, a new report from the Environmental Integrity Project (EIP) finds the country has fallen far short of that goal. In fact, about half of the nation’s lakes and rivers are too polluted for swimming, fishing or drinking.


      Liked by 1 person

  5. sealintheselkirks says:

    More reality:

    99% of Humans Breathe Unhealthy Air, Latest WHO Data Shows

    The Ocean Is Having Trouble Breathing

    A drop in oxygen levels is putting ocean ecosystems on life support.

    I just can’t find any good news anywhere.


    Liked by 1 person

  6. sealintheselkirks says:

    Watching this tonight. Interesting that New Zealand should expect this “much much sooner than anyone thought” excepting of course those scientists they have refused to even acknowledge. And I love this next part: “and that’s IF we stick to the Paris Agreement.”

    Which NOBODY on the planet is doing. WTF? Your news faces are just as fucking ignorant as ours are, Kevin! Just in the first two minutes of this 7 minute vid…

    Significant sea level rise on its way for NZ much sooner than first thought – scientists | Newshub

    Then the next 10 second “I’ve been a climate scientist for 20 years and I thought we had more time…”

    I’m not sure I’m going to bother watching the next five minutes because, I’m sorry to say, I think I have read science that is far more accurate.

    And just before this was a weather reporter talking about what to expect in the next couple of months because winter in NZ isn’t going to happen like anyone expects:


    It ain’t just India is it, Kev?


    Liked by 1 person

  7. sealintheselkirks says:

    I am definitely not seeing the usual number of bugs so far this year. It was 78’F yesterday and the air was mostly empty. Not many robins left as they can’t find any worms and bugs in the ground that was baked hard in last summer’s ‘heat dome.’ This is spooky.

    UK Survey Finds ‘Terrifying’ 60% Plunge in Flying Insect Population
    “We cannot put off action any longer, for the health and well-being of future generations this demands a political and societal response. It is essential that we halt biodiversity decline now.”

    Today I woke up to heavy rain and on & off the rest of the day. Right now, 3am, the sky is washed so clear that the starfields above my head are literally twinkling so bright that I can see…until I look down at the ground.


    Liked by 1 person

  8. sealintheselkirks says:

    We just had a Derecho AND a Habob at the same time rip through Iowa and South Dakota six days ago. Think the farmers are having a good time this year in their fields? Windstorms have been hitting, too, Cat. 2 hurricane speeds (one clocked at 105mph) tearing things up not counting the tornadoes this year. Gi-freaking-gantic Wall Clouds that are spanning the country from Texas to Michigan spinning off all sorts of weird weather day after day after week after month. I am still shaking my head at the EF-5 that totally destroyed Mayfield KY in December. That just doesn’t happen…or it didn’t used to is probably more accurate.

    That hurricane was still in the Gulf of Mexico last I looked and that was shocking the weather folks. Nobody expected it to last this long.

    5/12/2022 Sioux Falls Derecho in real time

    Right now I have two friends driving through Colorado and South Dakota to drop south into Missouri with his 30 foot trailer to pick up most of a ‘Lincoln Log’ put-together home that they could afford. He’s been calling for updates of what I’m seeing on the satellite and radar maps. He’s literally between two fronts right now, one ahead of him and one following!


    The lower Selkirk Range weather:

    Air full of debris as the frosty morning turned into a rainy noon to a sunshine afternoon to more rain from very large dark cloud masses that also dropped some hail (quickly melted). Then about 3pm the wind gusts came howling in to bend the 100 foot trees to near where a couple broke two weeks ago. High today was maybe 17C at its warmest.

    Now it is nearing dark, the sky has dust haze from what blew in from the flats and Scablands between here and the Cascades to the west. Not quite gritty in the eyes but close…

    Another night below freezing predicted. Did see weather for NZ and there was a storm either about to hit or hitting you a day or two ago.

    May we live in interesting times, eh?


    Liked by 1 person

  9. sealintheselkirks says:

    So here is another Mann-like climate scientist but using the ‘protect the kids’ argument/dog whistle. Go ahead, have plenty of kids because the world is going to be BETTER for them than it is for you. In 50 years the grandkids will be better off than we are now.

    Holy Fuck! Who IS this goddamn climate professor? But then Mann is doing the same thing in his own way at another university. De Nile is a big river syndrome strikes again.

    So the best strategy is to pretend everything is JUST FINE and to tell your kids that they’ll go to university (not at these ever-rising costs) because kids just like them grew up and ended Smallpox. Even had a psychologist get her view in…

    And Greta Thunberg was slapped down, too. Kids shouldn’t bother their little heads with anything but…celebrity scandals on twitter and school dances, eh?

    One link in this article (tab ‘As many climate scientists have been telling us’) goes directly to twitter and the general consensus is calling this rosy scenario total bullshit. I’m not the only one that was gobsmacked by this hopium article. But maybe it’ll make her as famous a personality as Mann? Could be lucritive, yes?

    Stop telling kids that climate change will destroy their world

    Some “climate anxiety” is the product of telling kids — falsely — that they have no future.

    Just shaking my head in bafflement.


    Liked by 1 person

  10. Kevin Hester says:

    “And the unraveling could begin as early 2024.”
    An otherwise good article undermined by the authors misunderstanding of how collapses unfold.
    Collapse isn’t an event, it’s an unfolding process. I’d say the USA has been collapsing for decades, only because it has the most ruthless military outside of occupied Palestine has it been able to stave off collapse with robbing and looting countries like Iraq, Syria, stealing Russia and Venezuela’s overseas bank deposits etc.


  11. Kevin Hester says:

    I might add the quote from Albert Bartlett “The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race is our inability to truly understand the exponential function”.


  12. sealintheselkirks says:

    This is what just happened slightly to the east of me. Yellowstone is closed!

    Climate Chaos Arrives in Yellowstone

    Starting to get pretty damned real, eh? In your face real especially for those that are…were…planning on their summer vacation in the ‘Great Outdoors.’ I know people over there that have freaked, one lives in Gardiner Montana that got hit really hard. Climate will do to the weather what has been predicted by the ‘Alarmists’ and there isn’t going to be any ‘mitigation’ that will be effective as I posted above (Hayhoe’s words).

    We are SO fucked we really can’t imagine how existential that truly is.


    Liked by 1 person

  13. Kevin Hester says:

    “This is the brutal reality of social collapse. This is what I tried to warn you of. Now maybe you finally, finally understand why I warned of it for so long.”
    View at


    • sealintheselkirks says:

      I keep hitting paywalls with the NY Times. Which has always been a pretty heavy hitter for Empire and War most of the time. Another mouthpiece for the owners and militarists…

      So far no fires but 5 out of the last 8 days have seen rain so everything is pretty dang wet still.

      Last year I was in EVAC Level 2 three times, and almost four before the Ford/Corkscrew Fire turned east on the ridge before it got this far north. Far fewer fires this year.

      It isn’t going to last of course. This is just an anomaly, a hiccup, in the onslaught I face in these mountains. Luck always runs out…


      Liked by 1 person

  14. Kevin Hester says:

    “Climate change is already doing immense damage, and it’s probably only a matter of time before we experience huge catastrophes that take thousands of lives.”

    Haha, even Paul Krugman has joined the party;


  15. Kevin Hester says:

    “It’s entirely possible that doomsayers of the world, though widely ridiculed, could be on target about the prospects for global societal collapse.”
    Noam Chomsky and the United Nations Warn of Collapse –


  16. Kevin Hester says:

    “But societies that are riven by internal social dynamics of any sort – which could be wealth differences, racial disparities or other divisions – are fragile because of those factors.”
    They thought collapse couldn’t happen.


  17. Kevin Hester says:

    Judge for yourself;


  18. […] the point of no return. Every additional gram of carbon released speeds up the already unfolding collapse now dominated and driven by a multitude of feedback loops documented here. Climate Change […]


  19. Kevin Hester says:

    I first became intrigued with civilisational collapse when I visited Mayan ruins in Mexico and Guatemala. Tikal, Palenque and Tulum. I visited some of these monuments in Burma, now known as Myanmar.
    A commonality in the collapses was climate change triggered by deforestation, over population, pathologically insane leaders disconnected from reality, military overreach and complexity.
    Ring any bells folks?
    Collapse isn’t an event, it’s a process, a process that is clearly underway.
    Paul Cooper is doing brilliant work in this field.


  20. Continuing to speak truth to power is a no-no. Hence this from Hunziker:

    The Foreboding Hyperthreat Looms Large

    Elizabeth G. Boulton, PhD, Australian National University and MA/Climate Policy, University of Melbourne is a former army major in the Australian Defence Force…Over time, someone somewhere decided Boulton went too far. Thereafter, her tome has been the subject of cold shoulder treatment amongst sources and venues that usually post or publish such work.

    Don’t really have the money for books right now but this is one that goes on my list…


    Liked by 1 person

  21. Here’s another I just watched. 14 minutes discussing AMOC collapse. 10 meters of sea level rise is already baked in:

    What Will Earth Look Like When These 6 Tipping Points Hit?

    Of course there is always the ‘there’s still time’ that is always dangled…

    Don’t know anything about this scientist…


    Liked by 1 person

  22. Kevin Hester says:

    I will have to delve deeper into Graham Hancock’s work


  23. Kevin Hester says:

    The incomparable Donella Meadows from 1977
    We were warned


    • Peter Gleick, Pacific Institute. Start at 6:59, about 20 seconds long.

      Who is this guy and who is he kidding? Everybody move off the coast? Everybody abandon flood zones? Somehow I’m sure there won’t be any damn volunteers! At some point just refugees fleeing, and we certainly are expecting that to turn into human flood all over the planet. But of course the gov will help, yes? Since the politicians are SO KIND to the US military I’m sure they are SO CONCERNED with climate devastation that they’ll be GLAD to help the rest of us….

      And the ‘need to RE-Design flood insurance policies’ was…REALLY? Did he just say only insure people that AREN’T in danger of flooding and everybody else just leave, go somewhere else without actually stating that thought? How does that work again?

      I almost spit my tea out on the keyboard which definitely wouldn’t have been good for it…

      Mandatory evac’s for different areas in and around the tiny town of Ft. Bragg, NorCal where my younger brother lives in an RV due to the unaffordability of the ridiculous US rents. And he works full-time. I haven’t talked with him since 2:30am when the 6.4 quake hit. Which was weird in itself as I have never been on the phone when a large quake hit who I was talking to. But now the area is being drowned by one after another Pineapple Express storms.

      Selkirk Range weather:

      Freaking raining again, all day. Some snow yesterday but not much then back to rain and of course it melted off very quick. Then it stopped & started and got heavier after dark. A 5″ thick slab of ice 15 feet wide and sticking two feet out hanging off this upstairs office roof this morning. It was 1 foot yesterday… Nothing I can do as I’m not going to stand under it trying to break it off nor lean the ladder against the slab edge to climb up then stand on the slab trying to break it off…and fall off the roof with it if the entire roof lets go.

      It broke off to slam down on the tool room roof below the window this afternoon. I was writing an email when it happened. No idea how much weight it was but it definitely shook everything up and probably did some damage to the new metal roofing I put up a few years ago.

      Above freezing temps all day and the icy snowpack has a sheet of water on it. 2nd week of January and…this ain’t normal.

      But then we never thought it would be, did we? Collapse is so messy and will get more terrifying the farther we drop off the cliff.

      This isn’t fun anymore. It never was going to be. So can we switch channels now? Oh wait, all I have to do is follow Gleick’s advice and move. Somewhere. There must be a place that is safe from the destabilizing climate disasters that are going to continue to increase in number and damage. As long as I have lots and lots of money.


      Liked by 1 person

  24. Kevin Hester says:

    This is shear brilliance from Steve Bull, I highly recommend subscribing to his blog.


  25. It looks like I’m about to get slammed again next week. Trying to prepare for serious cold again after weeks of above 0’C (it was 45’F yesterday again). Stock the firewood in the house, that’s for sure! Some crazy shit going on in the Arctic, Kev.

    Major Warming Disrupts Polar Vortex: Cold West, 6 Weeks of Extreme WX for U.S. Ahead


    Liked by 1 person

    • I had to take this vid in three parts. Some of his concepts I agree with, others are pie-in-the-sky thinking especially near the end of it.

      Does this guy even personally know and interact with local farmers and ranchers? Especially of the right wing/neoliberal variety that fills the US rural areas that are completely controlled by the MAGA GOP insurrectionists that pulled the Jan 6 2021 coup d’etat? Maybe in his country the rural farmers aren’t crazies wanting to use their numerous guns on people but that ain’t true in this country because I DO know and interact in this county that doesn’t even have a so-called ‘opposition party’ that puts up candidates for office. They are ALL Republicans running against one another for office each trying to out-Trump the other and show what a fucking violent Christian nutcase they are.
      And then there was this call for the War on Doomerism:

      But of course this stupid shit continues:

      (from counterpunch roaming charges 7April2023):

      + Don’t be a climate doomsayer, we’re admonished. You’ll scare the children. Okay, okay. We’ll try to be more upbeat. Look for the bright side. Emphasize the positive developments, such as they are. Then you read that globally new oil and gas projects either approved in 2022 or slated to be approved between 2023 and 2025 “could cause 70 gigatons of carbon dioxide emissions,” an amount that is more than 30 times the United States’ total carbon dioxide emissions in 2021.


      I suggest readers should pop in and read today’s ‘Roaming Charges’ because it’s just full of reality tidbits to chew on. Like rabbit turds:

      Sure has been a lot of tornadoes ripping through the US slave states this year, eh?


      Liked by 1 person

  26. Kevin Hester says:

    Courtesy of Joe Black!


    • Oh yeah, this is freaking hilarious. This actually should be under The Rapture posting as it is absolutely a religion.

      Yep, primary necessity of life is money because without enough of it you cannot eat, drink, sleep under a roof. Keeps the wealth in their mansions with servants/slaves dependent on paychecks, yes?

      And I thoroughly agree with the subtle premise underlying this vid that it is going to kill our species off.

      One way or another.
      More madness:

      Why would anybody build the ‘Climate Exchange University’ on a low-lying island next to New York City? My search engine Duck Duck Go says the highest point is supposedly 70 feet above seal level, but if you look at the pictures I’m guessing maybe 10 feet.

      Are they fucking stupid? Well, yeah, they are.
      And then there is this shit the wealthy are building all around the world proving that money does not make intelligent people smart.

      I mean, WTF are they thinking?

      Ordered the Oldevai trilogy PDF version tonight. Got an email from Steve Bull in reply to a question I sent about payment, ended up ordering directly from him no Amazon which I’m grateful to not have to do! Hate Bezos… He’s trying to be…hopeful even as he writes reality but then he has teenage daughter(s). He’s right, we don’t know exactly what the future will do. Maybe we’ll have one of those UFOs from a civilization a million years old that’s gotten through this bottleneck decide to give our species a hand to fix all this shit. Ya never know And I’m being a kind of old surfer dude grandpa to a 4 yr old who has zero men in her life so I know how he’s feeling in a minor way. The joy Ara throws at being alive is…contagious in some ways.

      But in the back of my mind is not fooling myself. Big sigh.

      Nine days ago it was snowing on the property. Today was 27C. Next week is expecting to be just as warm. My body isn’t ready for this, and the apple tree is still leafless. No bees yet, no flowers, no hummingbirds. This is freaky, dude!


      Liked by 1 person

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Kevin Hester

Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water.  I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.

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