Irreversible Runaway Abrupt Climate Change Unfolding Now. Not long off in the future.

In the last few days articles have been appearing in the corporate media detailing methane releases in the Arctic with the East Siberian Arctic shelf which is close to many of our hearts and minds due to it’s shallowness and vulnerability to destabilisation of the carbon and methane clathrate reserves reported on by Dr Natalia Shakova and her colleague Dr Igor Semiletov and by the worlds leading expert Dr Peter Wadhams.
“There are large uncertainties about tipping points that may be ahead of us, but for some systems, especially biological evidence in the oceans, we have already evidence that the tipping point has been passed.”
“Professor Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at the University of Cambridge, said the report had failed to mention the “very serious threat” of methane rising from the seabed of the Arctic continental shelf as its permafrost thaws, potentially contributing large amounts of extra greenhouse gas.”

Methane Fire

Methane Bubbles

Professor McPherson and I covered “Tipping Points” in the August  episode our NBL interview with Andrew Glikson from The Australian National University

I take one exception with this paragraph in The Telegraph article ; “The planet has warmed to 1C above pre-industrial temperatures, and around 90 per cent of that excess heat has been absorbed by the oceans, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said.” That is simply not true and down plays the severity of the crisis in real time. The IPCC is playing fast and loose with baseline dates that have beed covered on this blog previously and by  my esteemed colleague   Sam Carana from The Arctic News Blog who had us at 1.73C above the 1750 baseline in April 2018

“Unveiling the latest report in Monaco on Wednesday, panel-member Valerie Masson-Delmotte, said: “Climate change is already irreversible due to the heat uptake in the ocean.”

“We can’t go back, whatever we do with our emissions.”

“According to the new forecasts, approximately 70 per cent of the world’s permafrost will thaw if emissions continue to rise. This in turn could free up “tens to hundreds of billions of tonnes” of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere, further heating the planet.”

“Scientists in Siberia have discovered an area of sea that is “boiling” with methane, with bubbles that can be scooped from the water with buckets. Researchers on an expedition to the East Siberian Sea said the “methane fountain” was unlike anything they had seen before, with concentrations of the gas in the region to be six to seven times higher than the global average.”
The primary significance of this response form Igor Semiletov saying the discharges were “unlike anything they had seen before” is a very, very disturbing development. Very few scientist have his level of field research.

“The team, led by Igor Semiletov, from Tomsk Polytechnic University in Russia, traveled to an area of the Eastern Arctic previously known to produce methane fountains. They were studying the environmental consequences of permafrost thawing beneath the ocean.”
For those of us researchers following the seminal work of Dr’s Natalia Shakova and Igor Semiletov this latest data whilst not being surprising is terrifying in it’s implications.
Have a listen to this seminal presentation from DR Shakova;

Finally this sailor will give you an indication of how large there methane plumes can be;
A TRAWLER found at the bottom of the North Sea may have sunk after being trapped in a giant gas bubble.”
“Scientists from the University of Sunderland discovered the fishing boat off Aberdeen, 450ft below the surface, on a patch of sea bed known as Witch’s Hole. They think the crew were the victims of a rare and terrifying phenomenon.”

“Methane gas bubbling up from the seabed reduces the density of water to a point where a trawler can no longer float, said Alan Judd, a marine geologist who led the investigation. He said: “Any ship caught above would sink as if it were in a lift shaft. No trace of the vessel or its crew would remain. Even those who jumped overboard in lifejackets would sink.”

Giant methane gas bubble ‘sank trawler’

Good luck everyone.

 

Activist, sailor, passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour . Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Arctic Sea Ice, Early Stage Runaway, Feedback loops, Methane
37 comments on “Irreversible Runaway Abrupt Climate Change Unfolding Now. Not long off in the future.
  1. David Petraitis says:

    Great summary my friend!

    Liked by 1 person

    • alan says:

      We humans must realize that we are in natures playground ,”It’s not that nature is malicious, it’s that nature just doesn’t care

      Liked by 2 people

      • Distorted Jet Stream as it was described recently elsewhere has just stuck in my head. Disrupted is good, too, I guess, but the former seems to have impacted my brain a little more severely. How about Mutant Jet Stream? Is that appropriate?

        Watching weather shifting over the Northern Pacific… the satellite maps and the Blob of Ocean Heat…oh my.

        44South: Prepping is only for the wealthy and their well-stocked bunkers. Most of us around here are unable to afford much more than the normal winter prep one does living in mountains that (used to) get down into the -35’C/-35’F. Firewood, stock of candles and matches along with lantern fuel and batteries with a couple of no-battery flashlights. Add a couple of 5 gal glass water bottles in the house, some camp stove fuel and gas for a generator if you have one. Maybe that crazy armed christo-cult that owns the town of Marble up north of me about 40 miles (by the Canadian border) has tunnels full of prepper stuff but mostly it just doesn’t happen with folks barely paying the bills every month. I think the majority of people around here have enough for a week or maybe two, but then severe shortages will start hitting. Add in the people living on Big Pharma drugs and insulin that is delivered weekly or monthly at best, I know quite a few older folks that live from week to week with their shipped insulin. Some younger, too, for that matter.

        There will be a lot of very hungry people within days of the ending of imported food by truck or train into this area. I know few that actually have food supplies. Within 2-3 weeks after refrigeration stops I expect there won’t be a cow, goat, deer, squirrel, moose, or elk easily hunted in this county. Not when you have to walk everywhere (horses are going to die out the first winter without trucked-in fodder).

        Every dead civilization I’ve read about, and that history is interesting if not necessarily pleasant, have always had anthropologists finding human bones cracked for the marrow in an old refuse pile or firepit… When all there is to eat is the neighbor, you eat the neighbors you dislike first??? Yeah, I know, I’m getting more and more cynical…

        And it’s looking like the Methane monster is starting to roar, doesn’t it? That should increase the acceleration rate of every negative consequence we talk about on your site, Kevin. Everything you’ve posted spikes upwards into more positive feedback which feeds even more methane leakage…which make the Blob get warmer and the storms get weirder and who the hell knows, eh?
        __________

        21October

        Absolutely pounded on the roof last night again about 2am, a thousand ball-peen hammers above my head with large heavy drops coming in sheets. Rain due through the week but with this much going on in the Arctic and ocean; by then the predictions will probably have changed. Been raining for days now but it looks like no cold winter temps heading in to make snow at my elevation. Maybe on the peaks.

        I’m guessing that The Blob is shifting the Bering storms temperatures upwards… Used to be that Halloween always had snow on the ground for the trick or treat kids. This was noticeably changed 20-25 years ago by those paying attention in these mountains.

        Fresh snow on the ski hill cams this morning down to the Lodge level where yesterday it was dirt. Water running off the roof out the windows. It’s trying to turn into winter.

        Watch a sunset, Kevin, or maybe a sunrise. Don’t forget to breathe in and out.

        sealintheSelkirks

        Liked by 1 person

    • andrea renee hall says:

      I thank you for your service to the world welfare. I think it’s time to punish the assults on mother earth by jail time for CEOs of companieis that abuse. It’s the only way.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. William Powell says:

    I’d heard many years ago that methane releases may have been the cause of otherwise unexplained lost ships (and planes) in the bermuda triangle where ancient underwater deposits of organic material exist. Hmmm.

    Liked by 2 people

  3. You do realize what using the term ‘Good Luck’ actually means in this context, don’t you Kevin? With what we are seeing happening around the world and what we all suspect is about to happen…that could easily be translated into…well, there ain’t gonna be much good luck involved I would imagine. Over the precipice we are. At least not what I’d consider good luck. This is flipping scary, dude.

    Too much information coming out every damn day. All of it overwhelmingly depressing. I read somewhere a while back about climatologists and other science folk going to therapy about how to talk to their kids about what their work is telling them…no good answers that anybody wants to hear I’m sure.

    Oh hey, The Blob is back off my coast. Not good news. It was very bad over on the coast last time, in Puget and the outside ocean. Sea life died, all kinds, birds, up the food chain over the entire North Coast up into Alaska. Another hammer slams the ocean…The last time, 2014, it didn’t snow at my elevation. A couple of dustings is all, and the local hill barely opened very late with bare slopes and closed six weeks later with zero snowpack. I never went up, unused season pass. Far too dangerous and they shouldn’t have opened at all.

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2219501-return-of-warm-water-blob-in-the-pacific-threatens-marine-life/

    It is very bad for the surviving forest when the dryer side of this state doesn’t get much winter moisture snowpack. Not that winter snowpack lasts into Spring anymore…but we’ll take what we can get.
    ___________

    I enjoyed the colorful photos you posted. Both having the blue at the bottom turning to angry red that catches the eye as it goes up into the sky. An intentional metaphor in a picture perhaps?

    And the IPCC has always played fast and loose with any subject that made some of its members ‘uncomfortable.’ So much left out, so much science not ‘agreed to’ by the politicians and just deleted from the rough draft reports.

    And I really, REALLY wish these freaking people on all these panels etc etc would quit using that totally inappropriate term invented by that W bush political hack ‘climate change.’ I get a bad taste in my mouth every time I hear or see it! If you cut off your toe you didn’t just stub it a little.

    A satellite earth/heat (infra-red?) map popped up the other day showing the Arctic at 4C from ‘Berkeley Earth’ but I don’t have the link, just a copy. I think it also originally had a NOAA tag on it… Oh, and that is 4’C rise since 1960 not the 1700s…oh darn.

    Continue to do something fun every day, Kevin and others reading these words.

    sealintheSelkirks

    Liked by 1 person

  4. 44 south says:

    The problem is New Zealand is having one of the slowest springs in many years. Not the sort of thing you associate with a warning planet… unless you understand “climate chaos”.
    And not one of the local government mayoral candidates even mentioned climate in their promotional blurb for the coming election.
    I responded by feeding the voting papers into the log fire.
    Good luck? I think prepping tops wishing, though both will likely prove futile. That said I have been working on erecting a recycled tunnel house today.
    Thinking of planting sweet corn and pumpkins as the first crop, both still hard to grow down here as yet.
    How many more happy harvest days to come?

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Kevin Hester says:

    Our recent guest on Nature Bats Last has just covered the methane risk
    https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/10/11/methane-sos/

    Like

  6. brodog49 says:

    Dead people walking.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. And just for a touch of eyebrow-raising irony a little humor, I just had to post this. In the capital of this ‘exceptional’ country life is truly all about profit and power…and how the facade looks in the neighborhood. I couldn’t help it, I laughed reading this. Is it me or am I getting a warped sense of humor?

    sealintheSelkirks

    Grappling with the climate crisis, DC’s preservation board rejects front-facing solar panels

    https://ggwash.org/view/74166/dc-preservation-hprb-denies-front-facing-solar-panels-takoma-climate-crisis

    Liked by 1 person

    • Kevin Hester says:

      #Dystopiaisnow !!!!!!

      Like

      • No doubt, Kevin! After I read the article I was sitting there thinking about how the HELL these people can justify anything they are making decisions on. I mean, it’s not like it’ll make any damn difference at this point, ya know? That coastline is going to be underwater no matter how many solar panels ‘destroy’ the look of the old buildings…and how good are those buildings going to look underwater anyway? It’s just freaking insane thinking, like they have compartmentalized their thinking so they don’t have to think of what the science is actually saying is ahead of them.

        I just couldn’t wrap my head around it, and I still can’t! It’s like when I try to ‘put myself in their shoes’ I run into a place in my mind that needs to be broken to be able to think that way. Is this one of those ‘in the land of the insane’ analogy?

        Wow. Just wow.

        Nice article you added. Like Sheila down in Oregon who hasn’t said much lately, I should just go smoke a big fat bowl after reading it!
        Then I went to a link on the page about the ‘Earth Stopped Getting Greener 20 years ago’ article. Plant growth has finally hit its CO2 limit! The anti-science crowd has been using CO2 as plant food for decades…and so this shows that argument is also bogus.

        Big sigh.

        Not changing the subject…sorta shifting it in another connected kind of way… I read into Wm. H. Kotke 1993 book last night, Chapter 3 Soil: The Basis of Life which has a sub-chapter list ranging from Organic Rights to Process of Soil Collapse, Exhaustion, Compaction, Erosion, Abuse by Grazing, Irrigation Projects…oh my my brain was busy correlating all of it. Talk about our being over the freaking edge of the climate/survival cliff!!! And I blew right on through into Chapter 4 ‘The Forest’ with sub-headings on ‘How Forests went down, Deforestation following Empires, Poison air & rain, Vanishing Tropical Rainforest, Planetary Greenhouse, and Ozone. Then I fell asleep on the couch until 6am… woke up to rain hitting the windows and to the sense my reading made to my waking mind.

        This is a really good book, very concise and explanatory without being condescending. It’s not a novel so I’m not blowing through it but taking time to ponder while I’m reading. Shifting things around in my mind. This guy had one HELL of a picture in his head about where we were headed. And he documents everything he’s saying step by step.

        A subtitle to the book on the chapter list page starts with “The History of Disintegration” which is absolutely appropriate. From the earliest dawn of agriculture and Ethiopian Empire to present.

        I’ll be reading Chapter 5 ‘The Phantom Agriculture’ and #6 ‘The Exhaustion of the Industrial Empire’ next. You can probably imagine what the sub-chapters are in them…

        Time to heat more water for tea. Maybe grab that cannabis bowl, too, for that matter, go outside and watch it rain for a bit, bundle up in coat and hat, sip hot tea and smoke some stinky homegrown from my garden. Do something fun today, Kevin!

        sealintheSelkirks

        Liked by 1 person

  8. Kevin Hester says:

    “Small Temperature Bumps Can Cause Big Arctic Methane Burps”
    “Warming can encourage the growth of microbes in permafrost that produce more greenhouse gases”
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/small-temperature-bumps-can-cause-big-arctic-methane-burps/?fbclid=IwAR2gjpm1FaPP-Bct3_LmApz7l4eI16U3IQzhaPbus_N2fmK7DOHuZEI10LU

    Like

    • Kevin, you’ve been expecting this, or something like this, just as I have. Your writing and posting showed this to anybody that was paying attention. And you knew it was bound to happen sooner or later…sooner it seems but this has been stretching out for decades while our species pumps ever-more crap into the atmosphere.

      It’s like how many beers can you drink before you suddenly realize that you are throwing up? The planet is starting to throw up. It has been for a while but…projectile vomit is so much more real than puking over a toilet. The Arctic becomes projectile vomit? That’s not a picture I want in my head.

      I can’t read the article, just the first two short paragraphs and the start of the third. It wants me to subscribe which I can’t afford, but that is enough words. “Across the region as a whole” pretty much tells us that what we fear is becoming reality. Or has become reality. Just how fast is this going to happen is the question now.

      I pulled out a dusty article of a secret Pentagon report a few minutes ago that was published 22Feb 2004 from the Observer/UK and summarized in a commondreams.org article (which is what I printed out) titled: “Now the Pentagon Tells Bush: Climate Change Will Destroy Us.” On page 2 it says ‘by 2020 ‘catastrophic’ shortages of water and energy supply will become increasingly harder to overcome, plunging the planet into war. ‘This is depressing stuff, he said, ‘It is a national security threat that is unique because there is no enemy to point your guns at and we have no control over the threat.’ end quote.

      I just re-realized that I filed divorce and had moved here within four months after this article came out. I guess I didn’t think they were kidding?

      Collapse was never was going to be ‘clean’ and ‘gentle’ and ‘nice’ though, was it? Not according to history of the smaller collapses our species’ empires have caused across the planet in the last 9,000 years. That reality was always in the back of our minds, too, if we wanted to turn around and look at that darkest part of all this. That area scares the hell out of me as it obviously does you. Never wanted to be right about all this is EXACTLY what I’ve been saying for years to my friends and family, those that actually listened.

      Being a Cassandra of bad news has never been a happy place to exist in. Being right is no consolation, either, as we well know. I have family and friends that never talk about what I’ve been reading lately. You probably do, or like me many of those former friends have stepped back out of the picture because they didn’t want to know. Lots of those, eh? Most people do NOT want to know.

      Big sigh.

      Regards,

      sealintheSelkirks

      Liked by 1 person

  9. Kevin Hester says:

    None of us, not a single one of us wanted to be right about this.

    https://theaimn.com/the-methane-gun/

    Like

  10. Yeah, I know, Kevin. I have people telling me that this cannot happen, that it just isn’t possible. Or that I’m just too pessimistic. I have family that told me this and they live in a burn zone of NorCal (Mt. Shasta area). It’s truly disheartening but my ex never did want to hear about GHG or the Arctic or anything that I was reading back in the early 90s much less now…and they were her kids so I don’t have much contact with them anymore. And NorCal has been lighting off every year, too…

    It was -15’C this morning. Brrrrrr. At least I’m at ‘low’ fire danger, yeah?

    All of you are Cassandras. Doesn’t it suck?

    sealintheSelkirks

    Liked by 1 person

  11. For a weekend read:

    https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/11/01/our-vanishing-world-insects/

    I have never read from this next link’s site but this piece is worth posting for others. A link to extinction by 2026 written a year ago:

    https://www.transcend.org/tms/2018/08/human-extinction-by-2026-a-last-ditch-strategy-to-fight-for-human-survival/

    a cut & paste of paragraph 6:

    “Well, despite the number of elite-controlled intergovernmental processes and corporate scientists paid to promulgate delusion about our timeframe, an increasing number of scientists are now warning that existing and accumulating evidence indicates that human extinction is likely to occur by 2026 (assuming that we can prevent nuclear war and prevent the deployment of 5G in the meantime).”

    Happy reading!
    ___________

    Kevin, weather problems up here are not the extreme burning of California but the Heat Blob off my coast is shoving every storm that aims this way back up into eastern Alaska and then the deformed Jet Stream drops them into eastern Montana and further east into the upper Midwest. Blue sky and sunshine here…roughly -15’C +/- every morning with very hard freezes. Nothing ‘feels’ normal but then we know better, don’t we? By now there should be snow on the ground out the window. It’s green instead.

    The local snowboarding hill 49’N barely has a dusting of frozen icy crap on the Peak much less around the bottom of the lifts. Dirt for the most part. Big sigh.

    sealintheSelkirks

    Liked by 1 person

  12. Kevin Hester says:

    “New research says major climate threats to Arctic communities, ecosystems and infrastructure could come much sooner than expected as vast areas of permafrost continue to thaw. ”

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/abrupt-arctic-climate-change-study-1.5351019?fbclid=IwAR0i9bsMa42KKeP428R3UVZZJroYNx9TIsxjyJZoNZLCao9q207YdOWlrHU

    Like

    • Hey Kevin,

      This popped up today. I’m not sure what if any effect this could do except to maybe GPS and compasses. I only have the latter…

      World Magnetic Model Out-of-Cycle Release

      https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/world-magnetic-model-out-cycle-release

      Earth’s northern magnetic pole is moving quickly away from the Canadian Arctic toward Siberia. This movement has forced NCEI’s scientists to update the World Magnetic Model (WMM) mid-cycle.
      __________

      Why is it always ‘COULD’ come sooner? Crap! The link you posted…dang people it’s already affecting just about everything and everywhere! A friend’s son just came down from their home in Alaska (brought the g-kids) and said it was absolutely freaky the changes he’s seen in the last 15 years. He was a bit…scared about it. Then we had a talk that ended up being at least an hour long. Gave him websites to read and ponder. I caught him looking at his kids later with this sad downcast look on his face. Yeah, facts will do that to you sometimes. I don’t like being the bearer of an uncomfortable reality wake-up call but he wanted to know and asked me. I don’t lie about what I’m reading or talk fluffy bunny crap. I guess his mom warned him and he sat down with me anyway.
      __________

      It snowed here today, woke up to it. Flakes not just Styrofoam-like ice balls or groppel. I’d actually call it a dusting. Then it started raining lightly about noon. Now it’s foggy as hell outside. Possibly more rain later in the week but no guarantee. Not acting like November winter. Last year my snowboarding hill opened two days ago.

      Is it me or is it getting harder for the experts to predict the weather even a couple of days out now? I does seem as if they are less accurate than they used to be…but then the weather was a product of a somewhat stabler climate…or am I imagining that, too?

      Radical shit going on in AUS and Cali. Again both of them burn. Every year it gets worse and there is so little allowed in most of the corporate worldwide MSM:

      Demands for Bold Climate Action Mount as ‘All But Rainless’ Australia Faces ‘Catastrophic’ Fire Danger

      The extreme weather comes as a new report on G20 nations reveals that “Australia is behind [on] climate action in nearly every dimension.”

      https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/11/11/demands-bold-climate-action-mount-all-rainless-australia-faces-catastrophic-fire
      __________

      And everywhere else, in both large and small measures, if you are paying attention to the world around you, it should jar you. I guess most people really aren’t, though. Or plain don’t wanna.

      Big sigh.

      sealintheSelkirks

      Liked by 1 person

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Kevin Hester

Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water.  I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.

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