As the triple dip La Niña wanes, we need to consider the consequences of the next El Niño on the Arctic Sea Ice minimum, which ‘normally’ unfolds in the middle of September. That could soon stretch into October, adding weeks to the melt season, with its attendant consequences.
The critical issue Professor McPherson and I wish to convey is the rapidity of the unravelling. To quote Professor Albert Bartlett: “The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race is our Inability to Truly Understand the Exponential Function.
Good luck everyone, we sure are going to need it! Soon the living will envy the dead. Have your own say on our predicament below & subscribe to the blog to keep up with my interpretation of the great unravelling of the biosphere. Aroha Nui from Aotearoa New Zealand. If you feel the urge to buy me a pint or two you can do it via Paypal: email@example.com
I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour.
Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of.
To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.
8 comments on “The Convergence of the Next El Niño–Southern Oscillation & the Arctic Sea Ice Minimum”
Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water. I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.
My Submission to the Ministry of the Environment
Kevin Hester, Dropping Anchor in an Exponential World
The first graph in this link clearly shows the temperature spike from the 2016 El Nino!
“On the docket, there’s a trigger mechanism for much more rapid loss of Arctic sea ice looming in the wings, ready for attack. It is El Niño, which sounds innocent enough until it’s examined in more detail. Indeed, it’s a wolf in sheepskin.”
Robert Hunziker reiterating my contention that the El Niño will be an accelerator of the great unravelling!
“Stronger El Niño events may speed up irreversible melting of Antarctic ice, research finds”.
This chaos unfolding in the Antarctic is happening during a persistent La Nina that looks to be drawing to a close.
The next El Nino will be an accelerator and we’ll all get schooled in Feedback loops!
“La Niña is over. Scientists eye ‘rapid’ switch to planet-warming El Niño.”
[…] had also blogged about the expected transition frnom La Nina to an expected heat wave from an emerging El Nino come April. Im always careful to point out that I am NOT a scientist . but theres a convergence of opinion that […]
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With the sea surface anomalies Sam has documented we’ll see a potentially severe El Nino evolve.
Contemporaneous with that, we’ll see increased cyclonic activity as cyclone form when the SST is above 26C.
Good luck everyone, we sure are going to need it.
“According to a press release from the World Meteorological Organization dated March 1st, 2023, there is a relatively high probability that the ongoing, persistent La Niña phase will soon end. According to World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas, “If we do now enter an El Niño phase, this is likely to fuel another spike in global temperatures.”
We’ll be more certain of the ENSO status in May or June. If the El Niño phase kicks in it will have a disastrous impact on the Arctic Sea Ice which is already looking precarious.
The Sea Ice low in the Arctic usually happens in mid-September, combined with a El Niño phase that might extend into October adding weeks of melt season.
Most the older “Fast Ice” has already melted so the chances of a large acceleration in the chaos becomes more likely by the day!