The Convergence of the Next El Niño–Southern Oscillation & the Arctic Sea Ice Minimum

As the triple dip La Niña wanes, we need to consider the consequences of the next El Niño on the Arctic Sea Ice minimum, which ‘normally’ unfolds in the middle of September. That could soon stretch into October, adding weeks to the melt season, with its attendant consequences.

Senior Management Pauline Schneider, First Mate Guy McPherson, Skipper Kevin Hester.

“The ENSO Outlook continues at LA NIÑA, but La Niña is weakening.”
“Although NINO indices in the tropical Pacific are similar to two weeks ago, cool sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and particularly the eastern tropical Pacific have weakened. However, the atmosphere remains indicative of La Niña.”
“Climate models anticipate neutral ENSO during February 2023.”
“La Niña typically increases the chance of above average summer rainfall in northern and eastern Australia.”

We’ll have more certainty in May or June 2023. I expect it to be a catastrophic tipping point and “Step Change” in the great unravelling of the biosphere. The Great Barrier Reef and I wait with bated breath, sigh. ENSO Forecast; An alert system for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation

To stay in touch with the Arctic Sea Ice levels, I highly recommend both Zack Labe and Kris Van Steenbergen

Michael Dowd courageously brought up the subject of “Climate Grief”. Michael has a superlative series of interviews under the “Post Doom” framework. The series including one interview with me can be found here: Post Doom, Regenerative conversations exploring overshoot grief, grounding, and gratitude.
We discussed Stephen Jenkinson’s seminal work which can be found here: Stephen Jenkinson returns to Nature Bats Last

I’ve previously delved into the issue of climate grief: The Coming Tsunami of Grief
Managing our grief and more importantly the grief of our youth, is our biggest pre-collapse challenge.

It’s impossible to have this discussion without addressing the issue of tipping points we’ve already triggered. Guy McPherson has chronicled over six dozen in his monster climate change essay “Climate Change Summary”.

One of the audience questions concerned the slowing down of the AMOC. My reply was that its current consequence has been the disruption of the Jetstream’s.
Jennifer Francis has done excellent, if conservative work in this field. Jennifer Francis – Understanding the Jetstream

Below is an image of what the Jetstream’s used to look like. To see what it looks like today check out “Climate Reanalyzer” for the latest meandering!

The subject of pestilence came up and the fact that “Smallpox” formerly eradicated, has remerged from the melting permafrost. More on that threat: Pestilence: Another Consequence of Losing the Cryosphere and the Permafrost

Professor Paul Ehrlich’s new book was discussed and can be found here: Life: A Journey through Science and Politics

Our interview with Professor Corey Bradshaw on his paper “Extinction Cascades “is embedded below: Professor Corey Bradshaw explains the unfolding “Extinction Cascades” on Nature Bats Last.

The critical issue Professor McPherson and I wish to convey is the rapidity of the unravelling.
To quote Professor Albert Bartlett: “The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race is our Inability to Truly Understand the Exponential Function.

Good luck everyone, we sure are going to need it! Soon the living will envy the dead.
Have your own say on our predicament below & subscribe to the blog to keep up with my interpretation of the great unravelling of the biosphere. Aroha Nui from Aotearoa New Zealand.
If you feel the urge to buy me a pint or two you can do it via Paypal:

I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.

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Posted in Aerosol Masking Effect, Climate Grief, Corey Bradshaw, Early Stage Runaway, Feedback loops, Nature Bats Last, Pestilence, Professor Guy McPherson, Zack Labe
8 comments on “The Convergence of the Next El Niño–Southern Oscillation & the Arctic Sea Ice Minimum
  1. Kevin Hester says:

    “On the docket, there’s a trigger mechanism for much more rapid loss of Arctic sea ice looming in the wings, ready for attack. It is El Niño, which sounds innocent enough until it’s examined in more detail. Indeed, it’s a wolf in sheepskin.”
    Robert Hunziker reiterating my contention that the El Niño will be an accelerator of the great unravelling!


  2. Kevin Hester says:

    This chaos unfolding in the Antarctic is happening during a persistent La Nina that looks to be drawing to a close.
    The next El Nino will be an accelerator and we’ll all get schooled in Feedback loops!


  3. […] had also blogged about the expected transition frnom La Nina to an expected heat wave from an emerging El Nino come April. Im always careful to point out that I am NOT a scientist . but theres a convergence of opinion that […]

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Kevin Hester says:

    With the sea surface anomalies Sam has documented we’ll see a potentially severe El Nino evolve.
    Contemporaneous with that, we’ll see increased cyclonic activity as cyclone form when the SST is above 26C.
    Good luck everyone, we sure are going to need it.


  5. Kevin Hester says:

    “According to a press release from the World Meteorological Organization dated March 1st, 2023, there is a relatively high probability that the ongoing, persistent La Niña phase will soon end. According to World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas, “If we do now enter an El Niño phase, this is likely to fuel another spike in global temperatures.”
    We’ll be more certain of the ENSO status in May or June. If the El Niño phase kicks in it will have a disastrous impact on the Arctic Sea Ice which is already looking precarious.
    The Sea Ice low in the Arctic usually happens in mid-September, combined with a El Niño phase that might extend into October adding weeks of melt season.
    Most the older “Fast Ice” has already melted so the chances of a large acceleration in the chaos becomes more likely by the day!


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Kevin Hester

Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water.  I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.

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