“A new study published Tuesday in the journal Nature found that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current – of which the Gulf Stream in a part – could collapse around the middle of the century, or even as early as 2025.”
It could shut down in the same length of time it takes for a human to reproduce: IE: 9 months, that’s how precarious our predicament has already become!
“A vital system of ocean currents could collapse within a few decades if the world continues to pump out planet-heating pollution, scientists are warning – an event that would be catastrophic for global weather and ‘affect every person on the planet.”
No mention of the six dozen “Feedback loops” that we have already triggered nor the ongoing war mongering that ensures that all emissions will continue on the “Hockey Stick Trajectory” That Michael E Mann can no longer see!
We are just one “Black Swan” away from this set of living arrangements unravelling, but the slowing down of the AMOC doesn’t meet the definition of a “Black Swan”, it’s entirely predictable and underway now, not long off in a future we don’t have.
From Professor Guy McPherson’s substack post: Will AMOC Kill Us All?
“More than 12,000 years ago, the rapid melting of glaciers caused the AMOC to shut down. Within a decade, temperature fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere reached 10-15 degrees Celsius, or 18-27 degrees Fahrenheit. The president of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, who was not involved in the research studies mentioned in this video, said the shutdown of the AMOC “would affect every person on the planet – it’s that big and important.”
One observation I would make is that the changes we are witnessing today are happening at orders of magnitude faster than any previous similar event. Science Snippets: On the Rate of Environmental Change
Study Pinpoints Links Between Melting Arctic Ice and Summertime Extreme Weather in Europe
“New research shows how last year’s warming melted ice in Greenland that increased flows of fresh, cold water into the North Atlantic, upsetting ocean currents in ways that lead to atmospheric changes.”
The January 2021 episode of Nature Bats Last featured a discussion with Arctic research scientist and oceanographer Jim Massa. The episode is embedded here:
Jim has also delved into the slowing down of the AMOC, he quotes Professor McPherson’s work on the AME.
“The peer-reviewed paper in Nature Communications echoes the article at MIT News. The Abstract of the peer-reviewed paper includes this important line: “reduced Meridional Overturning Circulation nutrient upwelling decreases biological activity.”
Science Snippets: Ice Melting, North and South
I’ve recently covered that issue in depth quoting both Professor McPherson and Leon Simons:
The Aerosol Masking Effect, a Deep Dive into Our “Faustian Bargain”
We have destabilised the atmosphere and the ocean currents, we are rapidly spiralling into a completely new paradigm.
Capitalism and Industrial Civilisation is a “Confidence game”, we face multiple threats that could trigger a collapse that another former guest on Nature Bats Last, Arthur Keller labelled “The Only Realistic Scenario”.
I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.
Kevin Hester 
AMOC run Amok ?
Yahoo Mail: Search, Organize, Conquer
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Your Jim Massa link is another sex site. Gotta start checking for these things.
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Thank you, I’ll edit, I’m sorry that happened to you, my apologies.
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Why is there no link to the new study published in Nature? The only one I can find is from 2 months ago. Please provide a link.
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ATLANTIC OCEAN HEAT THREATENS TO UNLEASH METHANE ERUPTIONS
The image shows monthly Atlantic surface temperatures through February 2024 (background image), highlighting the potential for the slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to contribute to more heat accumulating at the surface of the Atlantic and methane to erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.
Increased ocean stratification (due to rising temperatures), heavier melting of Greenland’s ice and freshwater runoff from land and rivers can all contribute to slowing down of AMOC. While this is causing less ocean heat to reach the Arctic Ocean at the moment, a huge amount of ocean heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic that threatens to abruptly move into the Arctic Ocean.
The inset illustrates that, as people’s emissions heat up the air and oceans, strengthening wind, ocean currents, rainfall, etc., the potential increases for a lid to form and spread at the surface of the North Atlantic. As temperatures rise, more evaporation takes place and more rain falls further down the path of the Gulf Stream, an ocean current that extends into the Arctic Ocean, as part of AMOC. This rain further contributes to the freshwater accumulation at the surface of the North Atlantic.
The danger is that, due to strong wind along the path of the Gulf Stream, huge amounts of ocean heat will abruptly get pushed into the Arctic Ocean, with the influx of ocean heat causing destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.
From the post ‘Atlantic ocean heat threatens to unleash methane eruptions’, at:
Arctic News: Atlantic ocean heat threatens to unleash methane eruptions (arctic-news.blogspot.com)
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“The Engine That Drives Our Oceans Is Slowing—And That Could End Life as We Know It”.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/the-engine-that-drives-our-oceans-is-slowing-and-that-could-end-life-as-we-know-it/ar-BB1krECc?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=11ea5313167a4800bba6dd579697a2d6&ei=11&fbclid=IwAR038tTU4yCeExEoh1Xago-2g93y_y9JBTYIPRu8U4EPL7JrH9NINMSK5JA
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As Antarctic Blue Ocean Approaches, Global Ocean Circulation System Weakens (youtube.com)
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Ocean Heat Is Accelerating and Setting New Records (youtube.com)
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And I’ll agree with this dude that the Atlantic is dang hot for this time of year. Mind-boggling hot actually. Wait for the hurricane season hits this year and ask him again in October…
Haven’t heard anything lately about the new Cat 6 designations that were being talked about. I do think that they are appropriate at this point.
That graph at the start? Uh-oh, it’s only the end of March!
Climate researcher on what’s causing the record rise in ocean temperatures
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKsHaiPd3gk
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Scientists are getting excited? Not the term I’d use here…but with an engineering background? So why was this guy interviewed to talk about ocean heat? I expect because he is so obviously a hopium guy!! Big sigh.
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sealintheSelkirks
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Dr. Roy Spencer, formerly a senior scientist for climate studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Centre, has an interesting take on how fast the climate is unraveling. But of course Sky News Australia reports this:
Google pulls ads on meteorologist tracking climate for ‘unreliable and harmful claims’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZy8mgD05QA
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What was that Marley Reggae tune ? Oh yeah, Don’t Worry, every little thing gonna be alright. Guess the mid-20’C + weather I’m having up here all month is nothing to worry about then according to this guy…
Until the freaking heat hits sometime soon.
sealintheSelkirks
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Since I don’t have a WordPress account now, my comment on “AMOC or Not?” is below:
Is it possible that the slowing of such a huge mass of moving oceanic water could alter the rotation of the earth a bit? (Linda Tanner)
Sent with Proton Mail secure email.
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I read a couple weeks ago that the Earth’s rotation is already changing due to ice loss, but that was my last ‘free’ article. Now it is behind a paywall but I don’t remember anything connecting it to AMOC:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-warming-is-slowing-the-earths-rotation/
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seaintheSelkirks
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How AMOC Slowdown over Recent Decades has Likely Prevented an Arctic Blue-Ocean Event from Happening (youtube.com)
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This article misses the point of civilisation collapse but otherwise it’s ok!
‘The Day After Tomorrow’ Style Apocalypse Awaits In 2025 |The Atlantic Ocean Is Collapsing To Create A Mini Ice Age! (trendingamerican.com)
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I’m assuming that the article is only okay if you don’t read the ‘Conclusion’ paragraph whose last sentence is laughably ridiculous. I mean, really? Call to action for ‘heightened attention and proactive environmental “conservation?” REALLY? NOW? Wait, invent more technology, that’ll be sure to fix it!
Too late of course. And the only thing I see going on is more wars starting, ever-increasing GHGs into the atmosphere, more babies born every day.
I did, however, enjoy the “collective acknowledgement of our responsibility” part at least. It’s going to be an absolutely bitch which I don’t think the author truly understands. And we’re going to take SO many species with us…
I’ve got this VHS on the shelf. Haven’t watched it in years. Is it time to re-visit it?
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In the meantime, it looks like an extreme hurricane season on the US Atlantic & Gulf coasts. Methinks they had best adopt the new ‘Category 6’ standard quickly because it is likely going to be needed this year!
sealintheSelkirks
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is weakening in the deep sea of the North Atlantic Ocean, study finds
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is weakening in the deep sea of the North Atlantic Ocean, study finds | NOAA Climate.gov
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(6) How Changing Ocean Temperatures Could Upend Life on Earth – YouTube
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Science Snippets: Expect Extreme Weather Events – Nature Bats Last (guymcpherson.com)
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Jan Umsonst
·
Some aspects of recent Southern Ocean dynamics
Main changes in the Southern Ocean are the lowest ever recorded sea ice minima in the past two Austral summers, rapid melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and the warming and freshening of the abyssal waters formed in the Southern Ocean (1).
Another point are growing and warming warm water masses that freshen in the mid-latitudes (mode water layers at shallower depths) and subpolar Southern Ocean (intermediate water layers at deeper depths) graphs attached (2).
Another non-linear change are stratifying surface waters around Antarctica due to melt water (fresher lighter) from the melting glaciers around Antarctica (3).
Another interesting change is the Ross Gyre which is responsible for the transport of warm water towards the ice shelfes. Here we observed a recent expansion and intensification of this gyre in 2018. Which weakened somewhat in recent years – graphs attached (4).
The Antarctic Circumpolar Current is the strongest current of Earth, which is driven by the winds around Antarctica and sinking water when the surface waters cool down and get denser (surface buoyancy forcing). What is interesting that this current could have speed up during past warming phases (5).
I attached also a graphs showing the currents around Antarctica from the review.
(1) “Closing the loops on Southern Ocean dynamics: From the circumpolar current to ice shelves and from bottom mixing to surface waves”; https://essopenarchive.org/…/651899-closing-the-loops…
(2) “Recent acceleration in global ocean heat accumulation by mode and intermediate waters”; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42468-z
(3) “Intense ocean freshening from melting glacier around the Antarctica during early twenty-first century”; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-04231-6
(4) “Ross Gyre variability modulates oceanic heat supply toward the West Antarctic continental shelf”; https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01207-y
(5) “Orbital- and millennial-scale Antarctic Circumpolar Current variability in Drake Passage over the past 140,000 years”; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24264-9
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This isn’t good news for any part of the ocean, but it’s looking particularly sticky for the US and any other nation or island that stares down the barrel of the shotgun aimed at them…and the AMOC is cooking right this minute:
Sea surface temperatures still rising above last year’s alarming surge
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/22/2248100/-Sea-surface-temperatures-still-rising-above-last-year-s-alarming-surge
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Torandoes are still rampaging across parts of the US, too. I’m only going to mention the heat here on my thermometer at 4pm this afternoon: it blew up completely after a hole opened in the solid overcast that has been hanging around most of the day, from 29’C to 36’C within an hour after the blazing orb appeared overhead. Ambient air temp just spiked!
sealintheSelkirks
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Past a tipping point acutely!
“It is approaching its tipping point”: https://ifls.online/3UzPhze
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Arctic news
Sam Carana ·
Favourites · 3h · Study: Weaker ocean circulation could enhance CO2 buildup in the atmosphere
New findings challenge current thinking on the ocean’s role in storing carbon. https://news.mit.edu/2024/study-weaker-ocean-circulation-could-enhance-co2-buildup-atmosphere-0708
Ocean iron cycle feedbacks decouple atmospheric CO2 from meridional overturning circulation changes – by Jonathan Lauderdale https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-49274-1
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How much longer can the AMOC last with this going on month after month? Hell of a hurricane that just hit up here, eh? Earliest Cat 5 ever that started the farthest out in the Atlantic ever, and just smashed flat everything it rolled over. The Lesser Antilles to Jamaica to Yucatan Peninsula to growing back into a very strong Cat 1 before it hit Texas, and now the remnants are still heading N/E on its way back to the Atlantic while doing more damage across the eastern US!
People were lucky it was so narrowly defined and not a wide-ass monster, but the eye was amazingly distinct. A perfect eye. There are some predictions that are saying up to 33 named storms with who knows how many over a Cat 3 hurricane strength?
13 Months of Record-Smashing Heat Called ‘Another Red Alert’ for Humanity
“This alarming record underlines the need to urgently phase out fossil fuels, and to hugely increase climate finance,” said one campaigner.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/hottest-june-on-record-2668701286
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And at noon today, a half hour ago, the thermometer read 100’F. It read 108’F yesterday at 5pm… I’m getting work done outside before 10am at the absolute latest depending on what I’m doing.
sealintheSelkirks
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Paul Beckwith’s analysis of new data and his interpretation of what could unfold.
All Paul’s sources are hyper linked in the video description!
Has the AMOC gone Amuck? Investigate Yourself!! (youtube.com)
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On and on the bad news goes, but I don’t think it’s quite yet gone amuck, but it is bound to at some point, eh? Especially with all the ice falling off Greenland as fresh water.
Now, as an addition to this AMOC report, here’s the next tidbit for consumption on the worldwide ocean that I’m sure is also going to affect the Gulf Stream; from the UN:
UN Issues ‘SOS’ Due To Rising Seas
https://weather.com/news/climate/video/un-issues-rising-sea-levels-sos
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So how much and how fast can the effects of the rise in levels directly affect the current that is already slowing down? Or will it add?? I didn’t quite hear anything on that but then he isn’t the most commanding public speaker, ya know, and I might have missed something as I just often listen to these in the background?
Is it just me thinking that the bad news about…most everything is speeding up and being published quicker, or maybe it’s just that there is so much bad news it just seems like it’s speeding up?
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Heading back into the 36’C+ range here in these mountains this weekend and on into next week. But I’m waiting to see the Atlantic, that is about as hot as it can get (not boiling but…), will start throwing more invest tropical lows at the Caribbean and will they blow up into another Beryl or ….
My old partner DP & his lady are watching it happen in the Pacific right now, four more TS aiming at Big Island which tends to block the full blast of these hurricanes and break them up some before the grind into the other islands where they are on Windward Side. That monster volcano acts like a shield…until it doesn’t. So far luck is with them!!
sealintheSelkirks
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Dr. James E. Hansen
4h ·
Why a complement to IPCC and its cottage industry is needed. See – Feb 12 Global Warming Has Accelerated. Why? What Are the Consequences?
https://mailchi.mp/…/global-warming-has-accelerated-why…
Watch our video: https://drive.google.com/…/1dfFcauJBL3ejI…/view…
Read our paper: https://www.tandfonline.com/…/10…/00139157.2025.2434494
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Now Jens Terhaar says it isn’t happening:
https://medium.com/the-environment/is-the-atlantic-oceans-circulation-collapsing-or-have-scientists-been-misreading-the-signs-611c28fb7e4a
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The link it is talking about:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-55297-5
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Hopium or science?
sealintheSelkirks
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This subject recently triggered lots of debate in the scientific community with the conservative sources doing mental gymnastics to deny the reality of what the science tells us.
We’ve disrupted the most significant ocean circulation current in the Arctic and we are beginning to see the same in the Antarctic!
Such a stupid experiment to be conducting!
One Of The World’s Most Important Ocean Currents Really Is Slowing Down | IFLScience
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Jan Umsonst
AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) collapse causes El Nino like surface warming in the Atlantic and the Pacific
When Arctic sea ice vanishes during summer it will become interesting with the AMOC, as this could lead to a spill out of freshwater from the Beauford gyre disrupting the AMOC deep water formation. Sea ice could vanish (<1Mkm2) even before 2030 the first time. Just a chain of extreme weather events needed starting in winter/spring.
Here what they write:
The Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Niño/Niña change oppositely in the 21st century. Here, we find the weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a key role. Via reducing the equatorial Pacific trades and the Atlantic poleward heat transport, the weakened AMOC contributes to, at surface, a similar Niño-like sea surface temperature (SST) warming and a strengthened atmospheric stratification in both basins, while, at subsurface, a western Pacific cooling in comparison to an intense Atlantic warming. The distinct subsurface changes induce strengthened Pacific oceanic stratification to enhance Bjerknes feedback, in contrast to an insignificant change in the Atlantic. Moreover, the similar surface changes exert different impacts, with a strengthened atmospheric stratification suppressing the Atlantic Bjerknes feedback, an influence offset in the Pacific by an eastward shift of deep convection due to Niño-like SST warming. Such offset is absent in the Atlantic owing to the northern-hemisphere-located deep convection.
Source: “Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Contributes to Opposite Responses of ENSO and the Atlantic Niño/Niña to Greenhouse Warming”;
Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Contributes to Opposite Responses of ENSO and the Atlantic Niño/Niña to Greenhouse Warming – Yang – 2025 – Geophysical Research Letters – Wiley Online Library
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Fancy that
The decline of key Atlantic currents is underway, and it’s been flooding parts of the US for 20 years | Live Science
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A great little doco on the AMOC
The End of Europe Is Coming | AMOC
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John Doyle
8h · Jonathan N Fuller
12h ·
The UK media is suppressing crucial news …. again.
Two days ago Tim Lenton (pictured) and Exeter University brought 200 scientists together for a global tipping points conference. The closing press release called for much faster action to decarbonise and said this:
“Particularly alarming is the risk of collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which would plunge northwest Europe into prolonged severe winters, while radically undermining global food and water security.”
In 2020 one scientific paper said AMOC collapse would reduce UK arable land from 32% to 7%. In the near future the UK will be unable to import food and our own food production will collapse. The data suggests the UK might be able to support around 7 million people. But if we fight over dwindling food supplies, far fewer will survive.
This news is absolutely crucial, but there’s been nothing on the main BBC, ITV or C4 News bulletins.
Here’s the news release:
https://news.exeter.ac.uk/…/tipping-points-experts…/
Meanwhile the southern hemisphere ocean circulation system appears to have flipped. There is a grave risk we are in for abrupt climate breakdown. See:
https://www.icm.csic.es/…/major-reversal-ocean…
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Pauls latest on the great unravelling:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0iCLdRhRHSs
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This has to be linked to the Amoc stalling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkJuKLrxQ4c
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In a new CU Boulder-led study published July 30 in Nature, scientists revealed that even a modest slowdown of a major Atlantic Ocean current could dry out rainforests, threaten vulnerable ecosystems and upend livelihoods across the tropics.
Rainy tropics could face unprecedented droughts as an Atlantic current slows
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Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research that he controls are abrupt climate change deniers, they won’t admit that we have totally underestimated climate sensitivity.
His body language has changed, you can see he is lying.
Collapse of critical Atlantic current is no longer low-likelihood, study finds | Oceans | The Guardian
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IF carbon emissions continue to rise? WTF? I didn’t even want to read any farther than that in the fourth paragraph!!!
Are they fucking kidding, or are they just too damned afraid of what is obviously happening all around the planet? Don’t want to cause mass panic? Maybe it’s a complete inability to grasp the concept of Too little too late. ‘
We’re cooked it looks like. It just depends on how fast it all unravels, eh?
And in this show I watched today it was FAST!!!
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It was 100’F/38’C at 2pm this afternoon, another ‘stay inside’ day, so why not watch something that makes me think ‘cold?’
A climate AMOC collapse 2011 English mini-series version of the Hollywood ‘The Day After Tomorrow’ disaster movie. It all starts with the break-up of the Greenland Ice Sheet (instead of Antarctica) by a fucking oil drilling rig whose owner didn’t want to listen to the British scientists… It’s a 3 hour flick.
And yes, there are some silly tv shit moments but it’s a movie, ya know? I’ve lived in -30’F (coldest was -32′ in both the Utah mountains in the late 80s hiking with snowboards on our backs over 3,000 meters up, and here in these mountains back 20 years or so ago on my front porch, so I KNOW what it feels and looks like and what you HAVE to wear or you lose fingers and toes, noses and ears, as they freeze within minutes… The air is so cold it’s hard to inhale, and you can’t touch metal with your bare hand or your skin freezes to it instantly and rips off your hand when you try to pull away. One NEVER goes outside without hats, gloves, balaclava or neck gaitor on the face etc etc.
Of course there is lots of ‘luck’ that keeps happening to the actors, too. Amazing how they keep finding the rest of the family in all that snowfall, Blinding white-outs and suddenly there they are! In reality they’d all be fucking dead by the end of the movie but then it IS a movie and they can’t kill all the actors off though at least 5 billion probably died in the Northern Hemisphere! I love how they never once puffed smoke out of their mouths when they were outside. But I did like the blackened hand/fingers of the oil baron’s PR princess when the gangrene started setting in…
Original name was Icetastrophe and was a tv doc/miniseries.
Ice FULL MOVIE | Disaster Movies | Richard Roxburgh & Sam Neill | The Midnight Screening
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxGDBOwe0WY
It did get pretty silly at the end, like they’re going to walk with no survival gear/tents/food/water from a buried London to…wherever the hell they were going. South! That was left quite vague and left to the imagination of the viewer. As if the government was going to evacuate the entire population, ya know? HA!
But the show was better than being out in this freaking heat, Kev! I didn’t go outside again until after sunset when it had dropped to 94’F. Dogs had to go pee…
It was probably better than reading this Pottsdam feel-good article I guess. I read a couple more paragraphs about ‘we have to act really fast to cut emissions’ crap and stopped. Sorry dude, smell the flowers just doesn’t cut it at this point. 20 years ago I’d be getting ready for the first frost and picking the apples off the tree afterwards….now it’s goddamned boiling up here at 49’N Latitude!!!
sealintheSelkirks
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Guy’s latest
Science Snippets: The Living Planet on the Brink
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Another threat to the AMOC from my former guest on Nature Bats Last Jim Massa.
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