“John Doyle is a long time EU staffer stationed in Brussels. Stuart Scott was asked to make a ‘reality-check’ presentation to UN aid agencies with responsibility ( for) climate change in May 2019 in Geneva, Switzerland. Here is John’s ‘catastrophe-check’ to UN aid agencies. Diplomacy is the art and science of posturing, distortion and fabrication about underlying false and ideological mental positions about reality. We are operating under a global political network of self-delusional agencies and individuals who seem to believe that if they just keep repeating a false narrative about Reality it will become true and real.”
In the above presentation John Doyle mentioned the imminent threat of European cities facing “Wet Bulb Temperatures”, I have covered that issue previously here:
Additionally it was mentioned that we could lose the Arctic Sea Ice later this year! The consequences of that are described in the following embedded link; Cascading Consequences of the Loss of Arctic Sea Ice
“Losing the remaining Arctic sea ice and its ability to reflect incoming solar energy back to space would be equivalent to adding one trillion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, on top of the 2.4 trillion tons emitted since the Industrial Age, according to current and former researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego.”
“At current rates, this roughly equates to 25 years of global CO2 emissions.”
Our former guest on Nature Bats Last on PRN.FM Robert Hunziker has recently published the following on Counterpunch: “Earth at 10°C above pre-industrial is unimaginable. It’s a deadly horrifying thought, but as shall be explained herein, it should not be dismissed out of hand.”
“The following story might be labeled as reckless, and it might be criticized as a fearmongering piece of journalism and probably will be. Nevertheless, “10C Above Baseline” explores a dystopian world envisioned by John Doyle, Sustainable Development Policy Coordinator of the European Commission in Brussels.” 10C Above Baseline
John Doyle mentioned the President of Finland saying “If We Lose The Arctic We Lose The World”, that quote can be substantiated here:President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’.
Corroborating John Doyle’s analysis is the following post from Sam Carana’s Arctic News Blog:
“How much could temperatures rise? As the image shows, a rise of more than 10°C (18°F) could take place, resulting in mass extinction of many species, including humans.”
“How fast could such a temperature rise eventuate? As above image also shows, such a rise could take place within a few years. The polynomial trend is based on NASA January 2012-February 2017 anomalies from 1951-1980, adjusted by +0.59°C to cater for the rise from 1750 to 1951-1980. The trend points at a 3°C rise in the course of 2018, which would be devastating. Moreover, the rise doesn’t stop there and the trend points at a 10°C rise as early as the year 2021.“Abrupt Warming – How Much And How Fast?
Don’t expect the psychopaths at the helm of our sinking, burning ship to stand idly bye as the planet incinerates. I expect to see a false flag attack on Russia or China by the empire of chaos creating a nuclear winter. If you think that’s an insane suggestion have a close look at the lunatics in power in Britain and Washington. The Inevitability of Nuclear War and Subsequent Nuclear Winter
Time is very short, seize the moment.
I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.
Kevin Hester 
Just going to ignore that the temperature did not reach 3 in 2018?
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We’re in a World of accelerating Climate Change caused by multiple tipping points. But a cumulative mega tipping point could now be happening from the aforementioned which would be curtains for Homo Saps The End.
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Anything the EU says ………… ??!
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It’s seems we are going round the bend of an exponential temperature increase and all he’ll will break loose for Billions of people and other living thinks.
There will be population collapse of many species and many will go extinct.
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In a not-too-distant future, we will long for these days of being able to shelter safely in our homes.
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Thank you for telling us the truth. Too bad so many people don’t know how dire our situation is. CNN MSNBC CBS etc aren’t even giving viewers a slight inkling of the devastation shortly coming our way. Governor Cuomo so optimistic about building a new NYC airport that will soon be under water. The denial is extraordinary.
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They don’t dare tell the truth! Can you vision what would happen if people were told we as a species have less than 20 years to exist? Can you vision what would happen if people were told we have no “fix”, we are in a climate CATASTROPHE that can’t be stopped, that we & our children will die from heatstroke, diseases, border wars & cannibalism? Tell your children that each year it’s going to be hotter & hotter until we go mad & die?
I don’t think so!
We can’t stop the disaster we started, there is no “fix”, it’s going to get worse no matter what we do so go ahead & LIE! Keep hope & PROFITS going for as long as possible while the few super rich hide away in luxury bunkers that in reality can only buy them a little more time & if a little more is all they have, that for them is good enough.
So rather than start a storm they can’t control or profit from, they LIE, tell us nice lies to keep us buying, docile & working.
Go ahead & BUY that EV, put solar panels on your roof as long as your not a renter, splurge, live it up royally, SPEND, support the economy, it’s also doomed.
Feed the birds, trap “outdoor” cats, if you have land, stop using pesticides & herbicides, plant native plants that are favorable to wildlife, undo some of the harm we have done before we go.
Perhaps something will survive us, life is tough, something will carry on & evolve, let’s hope “nature” doesn’t evolve a creature that behaves like we did.
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Black Bear News has covered this as well.
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You know we can’t just “shut it all down”, we are too dependent upon OIL, too many mouths demand to be fed & we add 80 million more mouths each year & that adds to the demand for more resources.
If we had been “wise” we would have recognised that there are limits to our growth & we should have stabilized our population decades ago. Instead, our rulers endlessly push for more growth, growth until we race over the cliff.
To stop using FF would lead to grid failures, economic collapse, massive unemployment & mass starvation not to even mention violent, mass protests as well.
To keep control, they must keep BAU going for most as long as possible, as that fails, more force will be used against civilians.
Even that will fail, then there will be no more laws ~
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[…] We’re actually heading for a 10C global mean temperature increase in the coming decade or two.… […]
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In your bio “bear witness” is spelled “bare witness” (which actually might be more apt)
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Thanks Kevin for this urgent message which is a sobering wake up call !! Not surprised and definitely very disappointed in what a mess the greedy have made the earth. Time to savor & love each day…XOX
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Nuclear winter is no solution. The dust would settle out after a few years, leaving a lot of dead vegetation that would add CO2 and methane to the atmosphere and skyrocket the temperatures even more. A few years of freezing cold followed by millennia of unlivable temperatures is a stupid solution, to say the least.
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Brace for imminent impact;
https://www.livescience.com/oldest-climate-record-ever-cenozoic-era.html?fbclid=IwAR2cvP6JO5zmNOQICUTvtjlEDdjrQmAZgqeZj0Jo7LcGVhsMp3Hc8JeAHL0
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“The study indicates that if calculations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of global warming by 2-4°C in the century ahead become a reality, the result may be a doubling of the harmful effects of new mutations in tropical species.”
“Since mutations are inherited and also arise in every new generation, a marked increase in their damaging effects would have major implications both for organisms’ adaptability and for the types of adaptations we can expect to see in them if global temperatures keep rising. Our results may therefore be important for understanding how future global warming may affect biodiversity,” Berger says.
That’s somewhat problematic considering we’re heading for 10C !
https://phys.org/news/2021-02-warmer-climate-mutations.html?fbclid=IwAR2LA7D4xg-34IorlIFVTwGD-BU5dv4bj12G7x9VgyEIIL7w-v6ALNbGalQ
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“Freshwater release from the Arctic Ocean might also serve as an explanation for some abrupt climate change events during the last glacial period. During such events, temperatures in Greenland could rise by 8-10 degree centigrade within a few years, only returning to the original cold glacial temperatures over the course of hundreds or thousands of years.”
https://sciencebulletin.org/the-arctic-ocean-was-covered-by-a-shelf-ice-and-filled-with-freshwater/#:~:text=The%20Arctic%20Ocean%20was%20covered%20by%20up%20to,from%20the%20Alfred%20Wegener%20Institute%20and%20the%20MARUM.
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More confirmation from Michael Dowd and Robert Hunziker
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Similar conclusions from Sam Carana
A potentially catastrophic summation of our predicament. The conclusions are based on following the precautionary Principal.
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/06/greenhouse-gas-levels-keep-rising-at-accelerating-rates.html?fbclid=IwAR35PGh757xzd8rjqPYLxB6R7_DsQY4FnbCw5XIq6uwZbhdgLKZAc6J5qOM
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Our former guest on Nature Bats Last Oceanographer Jim Massa sums up some recent papers on photosynthesis and comes to the same conclusions as myself, John Doyle, David Wasdell, Sam Carana and my co-host on NBL Professor Guy McPherson that a 10C temperature rise is baked in.
We would all prefer to be proven wrong than right.
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Many people think that myself, Guy McPherson and John Doyle are exaggerating that a 10C temperature increase could be baked in.
This link shows that it has happened before.
https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/the-alarming-power-of-melting-arctic-ice/?fbclid=IwAR2Qk857Xqq0Wx6VkxbivId8knPeY9LI8KQiJLynmw5ufSCHOK3BPDjATrA
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10C in the next 10-20 years does seem like a massive exaggeration
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To quote Albert Bartlett “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is it’s inability to truly understand the exponential function”.
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I AGREE WITH KEVIN, GUY & JOHN…AS LONG AS THE ICEBERGS KEEP MELTING…THE LAKES KEEP DECREASING & THE TEMPERATURES KEEP RISING…WE STAND EVERY CHANCE OF CONTINUAL TEMPERATURE INCREASES TO BE “BAKED IN”….MOST SCARILY…UP TO 10C OVER THE NEXT 10 TO 20 YEARS.
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Brace for impact
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/07/a-temperature-rise-of-more-than-18-degrees-celsius-by-2026.html?fbclid=IwAR39BPe8oaghqx9O6-WTHqZ4LtTLDxOZiO-wbPzd2bPjcGMLurhI1Dapezw
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“But climate change has occurred with frightening rapidity in the past and will almost certainly do so again. Perhaps the most famous example is the reverse hiccup in a warming trend that began 15,000 years ago and eventually ended the last ice age. Roughly 2,000 years after it started, the warming trend suddenly reversed, and temperatures fell back to near-glacial conditions; Earth stayed cold for over a thousand years, a period called the Younger Dryas (named for an alpine wildflower). Then warming resumed so abruptly that global temperatures shot up 10 °C in just 10 years.
Note the date of publication; September 2008 !!!!
https://newscenter.lbl.gov/2008/09/17/impacts-on-the-threshold-of-abrupt-climate-changes/?fbclid=IwAR1DcTnUBJp4dfd3X1f_kndYNL5GBidAg-AVZjpwCsBEFAXMD1V3kZhreZk
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EARTH IS ON THE EDGE OF RUNAWAY WARMING
A 2013 study by Ravi Kopparapu et al. concludes that a 4°C rise would push Earth into a moist-greenhouse scenario, destroying the ozone layer and ice caps, with the water of oceans evaporating into the stratosphere.
From the post ‘Earth is on the edge of runaway warming’, at:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/…/earth-is-on-the-edge…
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[…] “Losing the remaining Arctic sea ice and its ability to reflect incoming solar energy back to space would be equivalent to adding one trillion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, on top of the 2.4 trillion tons emitted since the Industrial Age, according to current and former researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego.”“At current rates, this roughly equates to 25 years of global CO2 emissions.”We’re actually heading for a 10C global mean temperature increase in the coming decade or two. Pro… […]
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…like lots of dogs yapping at lots of passing cars.
Oh for fuck’s sake! And he says he’s only interesting and entertaining! Holy hell, he’s so dead on in his observations that…all I can do is grin at this vid even though it’s completely black death-is-coming for all of us.
And yes we are all damaged.
What do we do to get them to listen? asks a guy who leans in.
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26:39 minutes and look at the people in the background. The arm-crossed woman on left is looking at the ceiling, then pulls up her leg and leans her head on her knee which is a resigned body stance deep sigh move. The red shirt guy in back’s shoulders are slumped, the woman in glasses is laying her head on her arm and looking away, the burgundy shirt guy in front of her is on his cell phone. Nobody likes what they are hearing but….nobody is surprised. At the start there were some laughs and chuckles, not 30 minutes in. The audience seems somewhat stunned and depressed.
Why isn’t that a surprise? These people are obviously knowledgeable enough to be there to listen, and when it’s the worst of news that there is no answer on how to get the fucking so-called ‘leaders’ of the world to actually understand when those leaders are cognitively INCAPABLE of understanding (like Doyle’s consultant psychologist sister with the moon boots!); what’s left but holy fuck I’m depressed let’s go smoke a joint?
Which, by the way, I’m doing except with a bubbler pipe and a little pile of my homegrown God Bud mixed with Blue Permafrost out of the airtight glass jars. Both sativa hybrids grown in 2020 and it definitely helps with the constant lower back ache. Funny that I can focus better on listening to this very…informative conversation, too, eh?
Ten minutes left, best turn it back on and drink some of this hot tea that I just brought upstairs. The sun is just baking the right side of my body through the south window at the moment, it’s 1:15pm Wednesday, and last I checked the temp is -14C. It was very cold last night, I slept downstairs on the couch next to the woodstove last night so I could get up a couple of times to stoke it up.
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We no longer have agency. Did we ever?
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This was a good interview, Kevin. Very down-to-earth way of talking. I try not to overload people with links or articles they’ll never watch, but this is one I’m going to send to a couple of people.
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The Selkirk Range: Here are a couple of my current veiwpoints:
Covid Omicron is starting to slam this country even while Delta is still dropping people. Fast overtaking Delta around here I’m betting as I talked to the woman jeweler that is fixing my silver necklace (around my neck since 1980) and she went down with Covid. So did her entire family as I’m guessing since they were all vaxxed they got together. Vax doesn’t stop it, just lessens the intensity and potential hospitalizations/death. Hopefully. So far even her elderly mom (my age!) didn’t have to go to the hospital. I’m guessing they’re all at least a week to 10 days down with it as I sent her my necklace three weeks ago. She said she can barely get out of bed to pee in the morning, kind of like she was hit with a truck. A ‘mild case’ don’t ya know. Didn’t lose taste or smell so it wasn’t Delta that killed the native artist Govedare we both knew a few weeks ago in Chewelah. She laughed when I told her I keep reaching for it thinking I’d lost it, so she must be getting better.
A former Kenpo student in the late 90s in Mt Shasta lives in Chico California
(who still calls me his ‘sensei’ by the way) called late Sunday night saying he just tested positive on a home test. He wasn’t feeling well last week one day, worst headache he’s had in his life, threw up a couple times with a fever of 38’C but woke up the next morning feeling achy but okay. He called last July about the vaccines and I gave him the science I’d read about them and he got vaxxed but is on the waiting list for the booster. This time I told him to go to a hospital testing site in the morning (it was 1am phone call), don’t go to work get tested and call and let me know what’s up. We’ve been talking for a couple years, and if you know the Hawai’ian word Kapuna, that’s what I’ve sort of become to him.
This is how insane shit is here; his younger sister the Nurse at a local hospital who caught Covid last year (orig. strain, quarantined) told him to GO TO WORK because he needs to pay his rent. She had a very mild case…and was one of the nurses that balked at the mandated shot. She is married to an ex-military ex-cop and they watch FoxNoise etc etc. Probably both voted for Trump the Chump I’m sure.
Katie was much more intelligent when I was her High School Senior Project Mentor in 2002!! But David did not call me Monday morning after he went for the test. Been three days of silence. He’s…37yr olds. A very good cook, current works in a bakery, and is also a certified welder. Good snowboarder, too. At this point I’m worried about him. He may be in the hospital.
But it’s likely the US is going to shut the fuck down in the next two weeks or so because so many people are getting sick. No joke, it’s already started as I just read that a Walmart in New Jersey had so many people out sick (90 of that shift) they closed. I walked into the NAPA autoparts store on Monday to not one of the three employees behind the counter or four other customers were masked. I’m sure none of them were vaccinated, either, as why would they be? Another guy walked in after me with a mask on and another employee came out of the back with one on as the woman cashier closed up and went home sans mask.
No problem, it’s all over, we’ll deal with it, mentality, Kevin. These people are stupid.
Brutal reality is much worse but it is EXACTLY like what Doyle is talking about! Just unable to cognitively process and think on any of this. It’s like…there’s nobody home. Blank looks of barbie and ken dolls…except they’re all fatter than fuck from eating fast food and watching tv
I’m living around bio-terrorists because they won’t get vaxxed or mask. I only leave my property once a week for about 5-6 hours to work in the back of the 2nd hand store fixing things after it’s been closed for three days. And I’m avoiding grocery stores, haven’t been to a concert or a theater, haven’t played music in a bar
I went into the post office to pay my 6 month box rent (that just increased 300% this month without any warning whatsoever. Even the post office employees weren’t warned! I just went from $94/yr to $284/yr and had to pay the 6 month rent because I could not get everything switched to my rural route mailbox (that been ‘baseball bat’ practice target and was recently deliberately run over and crushed by a vehicle that swerved to hit it looking at the tracks in the gravel. Lots of rural route theft of mail, too. This is insane behavior but the Trump ‘postmaster general’ DeJoy just decided to crush local revenues at local post offices in his continuing attempt to kill USPS. The local postmasters are strenuously arguing as they have lost half their box customers already, it’s crippling them. And there is no mail delivery in the towns of Chewelah or Valley or Loon Lake or Waitte’s Lake or Springdale… But there is out here in the county and the rural route delivery people are going to be swamped and overwhelmed as those of us close our boxes. I just need the 6 months because I need to put in a new steel pipe in concrete and a locking mailbox…and it’ll take me that long to switch everything and everybody over to the property address that I had to apply to put in after I bought this place. 18 years with this po box..
The condition of the USA in a nutshell, dude!
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I’m going back to the escapist movie I was watching last night. the 1962 sci-fi Day of the Triffids seems an appropriate movie for this afternoon as it’s too damned cold to go outside except for brief excursions (I’ll be bringing in another wheelbarrow of wood here in a bit just to have it inside). Thanks for this link, Kevin.
sealintheSelkirks
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Within Decade, Planet’s Natural World Facing Largest Mass Extinction Event Since Dinosaurs
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2021/12/30/within-decade-planets-natural-world-facing-largest-mass-extinction-event-dinosaurs
What more can we handle, eh?
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Still no word from the former student. Bummer.
sealintheSelkirks
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Guy and Beryl collaborating on a new peer reviewed paper.
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“Altogether, the global temperature could rise by more than 18°C above pre-industrial, as also discussed at the Extinction page.
In conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly and drive humans into extinction as early as in 2025. Temperatures could continue to rise afterwards, and drive most life on Earth into extinction soon thereafter, making it the more important to do the right thing now and help avoid the worst from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.”
Sam Carana’s 18C makes my 10C seem tepid !
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/07/human-extinction-by-2025.html?fbclid=IwAR3LpqOiYhd6yO1hCRTW-i5tGX_IwPlWgSDW-fvFCInOAMi5hKLO74yz5QM
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This is happening, and coming, now and next week. Europe is..fucking going to burn.
Just the first 2 minutes.
Not quite going to blast me here by the Canadian border with the insane heat dome like last year. Yet. It’s hot, staying just in the 35-38C range. Damned close to 100F by 5pm every day is what I’m seeing on my thermometers (both mercury on the the north side of the woodshed and the digital under the west-facing front porch roof). At least there has been wind blowing that keeps the temps felling a bit cooler on the skin…
What I just read from arcticnews is…the new normal except it will only get worse. As it gets hotter the crazies running rampant in this country will only get more loonie-tunes. Like wasps they get more excitable the hotter it gets….
sealintheSelkirks
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Thank you for telling us the truth so we won’t be caught back on our heels as these events unfold and rapidly accelerate… if i had a fatal disease I would want to be told the truth and not told it’s just a normal flu, take a few aspirin you’ll be fine… we all deserve to be told the truth so we can, as Guy MacPherson has so eloquently said, ‘Pursue excellence. Pursue love’ in this time of hospice for our world.
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Read the first little section of Roaming Charges
https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/09/02/roaming-charges-68/
Pakistan. Look at the numbers quoted. I mean, can we say ‘accelerating collapse’ now or is it still not politically correct in a neoliberal corporate world? Is there any coming back from this? The first totally collapsed country from Global Warming?
And the oil money-drenched politicians are still spouting idiocy while kicking the can down the road that ends in…ouch.
sealintheSelkirks
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Confirmation from the Grand Father of Climate Change that 10C is locked in.
https://justcollapse.org/2022/12/16/10c-warming-locked-in/?fbclid=IwAR39DNOohqiFDe63jx7dPonC2mleJwdK6uRZtOfeKHqDuOC3pDsC6McDrRI
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And here’s another that is happening now. The droughts are chopping into food production areas big time, and that can’t be good. Sure isn’t for the Horn of Africa people 50 million who are about to starve to death while the ‘experts and politicians’ gather in wonderful glitzy wealthy enclaves and talk about it on and on and on…and it’s happening across the planet.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/12/16/multiple-breadbasket-failures-as-radicals-stop-private-jets/
There is so much bad going on that there is no way anyone can absorb this much information…
Weather in the Selkirks:
Feet of snow has fallen at my elevation. Pretty much buried everybody in at the higher elevations. January temperatures started in Fall, like somebody flipped a switch, and storm after storm has been barrelling in since about the 22Nov that dropped the first half foot. But I also had above freezing temps (and sunshine in between). Great for creating ice when the sun set!
That increased 7% precip in the atmosphere from rising global temperatures is sure showing its face this year. The 3rd La Nina year in a row and this one, compared with last year and the one before, is trying to make up for the incredible lack of snowfall they both had. A couple feet on my roof on the 29th & 30th, then another impulse came in 1Dec and put another half foor down. Clear and very cold on Friday, 10’F/-12C at 9pm, and never was above18F/-9C until more snow fell on Monday 5Dec.
Snowing again 8Dec at 11am with another 16″ by nightfall 9Dec. Was snowing hard at 9am, another 6″ by then, about an inch an hour and by dark had another 10-12 inches.
Sunday 11Dec it was sunny and 42’F!!! Same with Monday. A couple more inches fell on Wednesday but the last three days have been heavily overcast and chill with daytime temps not above 22’F. Spit some snow this afternoon and is expected to have snow on Sunday.
I haven’t seen this much snow on the property at one time in years. Been a lot of work for this old surfer dude…and it’s only halfway through December. Feels like it’s already nearing February….
sealintheSelkirks
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Dr James E Hansen’s 13C already baked in with existing emissions in the atmosphere makes my 10C approximation sound positively tepid!
The only question now is how rapidly it will unfold.
https://mailchi.mp/caa/global-warming-in-the-pipeline-2y56b01d8q?fbclid=IwAR0x4NkpDiL5fsxM_vGD61CeGKFmUmf4fCOmhCK6P3e9ECOVsp2i3TaGnDg
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