Not 1.5C, Not 2C, a 10C Temperature Increase is Baked in.

“Losing the remaining Arctic sea ice and its ability to reflect incoming solar energy back to space would be equivalent to adding one trillion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, on top of the 2.4 trillion tons emitted since the Industrial Age, according to current and former researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego.”
“At current rates, this roughly equates to 25 years of global CO2 emissions.”
We’re actually heading for a 10C global mean temperature increase in the coming decade or two. Probably much sooner.


The three of us discussed the seminal work of Professor David Wasdell and his analysis that 10C is now baked into the climate system.
Peter Wadhams says: May 28, 2019 at 2:59 am(Edit)

“The analysis of climate sensitivity by David Wasdell is very important. I have been through it with him several times and am convinced of its validity. I mentioned it in “A Farewell to Ice”. The point is that here is a big difference between the short term sensitivity, which is used to calculate warming over a few years, and the long term sensitivity which represents how much warming the earth is going to be subjected to if you don’t add more CO2 but let the effects of the present levels work their way fully through the climate system. Short term sensitivity is 2-4.5 C, but long term is more like 10C. The crime of IPCC and other modelling outfits is that they are aware of this difference between short and long term, but still use the short term value even when they are doing hand-waving studies of what is going to happen over the next century or two. In fact it;’s not just the case that the magic 1.5C or 2C warming is already “baked in” to the global system – in fact the baked in figure is more like 4-5 C. Hence the vital need for carbon drawdown. Best wishes Peter Wadhams”


Professor Wasdell’s analysis is embedded here; Full Earth System Sensitivity to CO2 has been Grossly Underestimated
John Doyle mentioned the term Wet Bulb, I have covered that boiling issue here’ Wet Bulb Temperature Soon to Become Leading Cause of Death

We discussed the work of Dr Natalia Shakova, I highly recommend this interview with this great scientist; Methane Hydrates extended Interview Extracts With Natalia Shakhova

We discussed the issue that even Shell Petroleum admits that 5C is baked in, the evidence is embedded here; Oil Giants admit to a 5C Temperature Increase being baked in but no one else will!

This is the geo-engineering issue I mentioned; The Inevitability of Nuclear War and Subsequent Nuclear Winter

“Looking further forward to when all the methane will be released from under the World’s thawing permafrost Sir David warns us to expect not a few degrees of warming but as much as 20 degrees over the next few centuries.” Few Centuries, where have I heard that before ?

Sir David King: Climate Leadership, COP26, and 20 Degrees of Warming?



I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.

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6 comments on “Not 1.5C, Not 2C, a 10C Temperature Increase is Baked in.
  1. Happened on your three-way interview/discussion and thoroughly enjoyed it! I could blather on all day in response to it but will be brief for now.
    If you haven’t caught the 2011 movie called “Melancholia”, please do so. I’ve watched it a couple of times and plan to again. It’s very slow and almost boring early on, but persevere and I think the three of you will really enjoy the ending. I won’t give it away except to say that the three characters near the end were priceless in their roles: the child playing an innocent child, the aunt who showed all of us how to behave when we know the end is near, and the mother who turned out to be a sniveling idiot when presented with looming disaster.
    Thanks again and enjoy.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Paul Chace says:

    Thank you Kevin

    New England heating faster than ROW, restofworld
    I’m gettin excited for the end
    Couple of volcanoes lately
    I think we are def in runaway
    Tornado in KY. For 200 miles!!!!!!! Nuts

    Good luck

    Good to know you, Guy ,Pauline, beckwith,wadhams shakova Anderson especially glickson and many others
    Love your candor

    Liked by 1 person

  3. […] Not 1.5C, Not 2C, a 10C Temperature Increase is Baked in. […]

    Liked by 1 person

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Kevin Hester

Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water.  I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.

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