The Convergence of the Next El Niño–Southern Oscillation & the Arctic Sea Ice Minimum

As the triple dip La Niña wanes, we need to consider the consequences of the next El Niño on the Arctic Sea Ice minimum, which ‘normally’ unfolds in the middle of September. That could soon stretch into October, adding weeks to the melt season, with its attendant consequences.

Senior Management Pauline Schneider, First Mate Guy McPherson, Skipper Kevin Hester.

“The ENSO Outlook continues at LA NIÑA, but La Niña is weakening.”
“Although NINO indices in the tropical Pacific are similar to two weeks ago, cool sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and particularly the eastern tropical Pacific have weakened. However, the atmosphere remains indicative of La Niña.”
“Climate models anticipate neutral ENSO during February 2023.”
“La Niña typically increases the chance of above average summer rainfall in northern and eastern Australia.”

We’ll have more certainty in May or June 2023. I expect it to be a catastrophic tipping point and “Step Change” in the great unravelling of the biosphere. The Great Barrier Reef and I wait with bated breath, sigh. ENSO Forecast; An alert system for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation

To stay in touch with the Arctic Sea Ice levels, I highly recommend both Zack Labe and Kris Van Steenbergen

Michael Dowd courageously brought up the subject of “Climate Grief”. Michael has a superlative series of interviews under the “Post Doom” framework. The series including one interview with me can be found here: Post Doom, Regenerative conversations exploring overshoot grief, grounding, and gratitude.
We discussed Stephen Jenkinson’s seminal work which can be found here: Stephen Jenkinson returns to Nature Bats Last

I’ve previously delved into the issue of climate grief: The Coming Tsunami of Grief
Managing our grief and more importantly the grief of our youth, is our biggest pre-collapse challenge.

It’s impossible to have this discussion without addressing the issue of tipping points we’ve already triggered. Guy McPherson has chronicled over six dozen in his monster climate change essay “Climate Change Summary”.

One of the audience questions concerned the slowing down of the AMOC. My reply was that its current consequence has been the disruption of the Jetstream’s.
Jennifer Francis has done excellent, if conservative work in this field. Jennifer Francis – Understanding the Jetstream

Below is an image of what the Jetstream’s used to look like. To see what it looks like today check out “Climate Reanalyzer” for the latest meandering!

The subject of pestilence came up and the fact that “Smallpox” formerly eradicated, has remerged from the melting permafrost. More on that threat: Pestilence: Another Consequence of Losing the Cryosphere and the Permafrost

Professor Paul Ehrlich’s new book was discussed and can be found here: Life: A Journey through Science and Politics

Our interview with Professor Corey Bradshaw on his paper “Extinction Cascades “is embedded below: Professor Corey Bradshaw explains the unfolding “Extinction Cascades” on Nature Bats Last.

The critical issue Professor McPherson and I wish to convey is the rapidity of the unravelling.
To quote Professor Albert Bartlett: “The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race is our Inability to Truly Understand the Exponential Function.

Good luck everyone, we sure are going to need it! Soon the living will envy the dead.
Have your own say on our predicament below & subscribe to the blog to keep up with my interpretation of the great unravelling of the biosphere. Aroha Nui from Aotearoa New Zealand.
If you feel the urge to buy me a pint or two you can do it via Paypal:

I'm an anti-imperialist, environmental activist and blue ocean sailor, who is passionate about the earth and all it's inhabitants without favour. Brace for imminent impact as we bare witness to the non-linear unraveling of the biosphere and habitability disappearing for most if not all complex life on the only habitable planet we know of. To quote President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’. Folks we have lost the Arctic.

Tagged with: , ,
Posted in Aerosol Masking Effect, Climate Grief, Corey Bradshaw, Early Stage Runaway, Feedback loops, Nature Bats Last, Pestilence, Professor Guy McPherson, Zack Labe
35 comments on “The Convergence of the Next El Niño–Southern Oscillation & the Arctic Sea Ice Minimum
  1. Kevin Hester says:

    “On the docket, there’s a trigger mechanism for much more rapid loss of Arctic sea ice looming in the wings, ready for attack. It is El Niño, which sounds innocent enough until it’s examined in more detail. Indeed, it’s a wolf in sheepskin.”
    Robert Hunziker reiterating my contention that the El Niño will be an accelerator of the great unravelling!


  2. Kevin Hester says:

    This chaos unfolding in the Antarctic is happening during a persistent La Nina that looks to be drawing to a close.
    The next El Nino will be an accelerator and we’ll all get schooled in Feedback loops!


  3. […] had also blogged about the expected transition frnom La Nina to an expected heat wave from an emerging El Nino come April. Im always careful to point out that I am NOT a scientist . but theres a convergence of opinion that […]

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Kevin Hester says:

    With the sea surface anomalies Sam has documented we’ll see a potentially severe El Nino evolve.
    Contemporaneous with that, we’ll see increased cyclonic activity as cyclone form when the SST is above 26C.
    Good luck everyone, we sure are going to need it.


  5. Kevin Hester says:

    “According to a press release from the World Meteorological Organization dated March 1st, 2023, there is a relatively high probability that the ongoing, persistent La Niña phase will soon end. According to World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas, “If we do now enter an El Niño phase, this is likely to fuel another spike in global temperatures.”
    We’ll be more certain of the ENSO status in May or June. If the El Niño phase kicks in it will have a disastrous impact on the Arctic Sea Ice which is already looking precarious.
    The Sea Ice low in the Arctic usually happens in mid-September, combined with a El Niño phase that might extend into October adding weeks of melt season.
    Most the older “Fast Ice” has already melted so the chances of a large acceleration in the chaos becomes more likely by the day!


  6. Kevin Hester says:

    “Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius”


  7. Kevin Hester says:

    More incredible record braking data from the tireless Sam Carana.
    I dread what the effects of the coming El Niño will unleash!


  8. Kevin Hester says:

    “We’re due one. However, the magnitude of the predicted El Niños shows a very large spread, everything from blockbuster to wimp,” he said.”
    I’ll be spending the next 8 weeks watching closely to see if the El Niño kicks in
    Because of the precarious state of the Arctc Sea Ice.


  9. Kevin Hester says:

    The transition from La Nina is already visible!!


  10. Kevin Hester says:

    The El Niño is coming, ready or not!
    In the last year we have had more ferry cancellations to Rakino Island, than I can remember in the previous 20 yrs, I’ll expect many more this year, as we can expect the next El Niño to bring “sweeping shifts to weather patterns worldwide.”
    As if it wasn’t shifty enough.
    “The big picture, according to Axios, is that “forecasters now expect that a moderate El Niño, the climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures, will develop this summer, bringing sweeping shifts to weather patterns worldwide.”
    The 2016 El Nino triggered the worst ever bleaching event on the Great Barrier Reef. It takes a reef up to 15 years to recover from a strong bleaching event, if it can recover at all. Clearly the Great Barrier Reef will be attacked again, when, not if, the ENSO kicks in.
    Both Guy and I have written about the threat the El Niño poses to food production, I’ll post corroborating evidence below for further reference and scrutiny.


  11. Kevin Hester says:

    Via David Ferraro author at the Collapse Chronicles:
    “Water brokers cash out, El Niño to return, boosting heat, Fungal attacks threaten global food supply, The thinking error that makes people susceptible to climate change denial, Five climate myths pushed by Big Beef, ‘Epidemic of Loneliness,’ Is the Fed trying to cause a depression? No stopping the allergy apocalypse, and more… in The Collapse Chronicle!


  12. Kevin Hester says:

    “While El Niño conditions can bring marine heatwaves to some areas of the Pacific, the oceans around Aotearoa New Zealand, especially to the south, are already experiencing nearly constant marine heatwaves.”
    The crucial detail is that we now have permanent marine heatwaves, even during a La Nina! This is new ‘behaviour’ outside the normal parameters.
    The building El Niño can only be an accelerator of our predicament!


  13. And the heat is ramping up across the freaking world already, Kev. Look at Southeast Asia:

    Holy smokes! And it’s been 36’F above normal north of me in Canada (NW Territories) and massive fires already going throughout Alberta Province. Then look at the Indian subcontinent/Pakistan etc. and the temps hitting there in April. Oh my freaking hell. This is getting freaky, dude.

    This is literally going to be a burning in hell summer for a huge portion of the planet. It’s getting real, isn’t it?



    • Grant Bond says:

      I emigrated from US to northern Quebec. Locals tell me just a decade ago winter temperatures reach -40C for days. My first winter here and it reached -28C. For one day. Just like my old home, Northeast USA, winter starts much later and spring stays cold longer with occasional super hot anomalous days. PS I can smell the smoke from BC and Alberta. Well, at least we get a pretty apocalyptic sunset.


      Liked by 1 person

    • This guy packs a lot of info and links into his climate summaries on the Kos site. Glad somebody is doing it there!

      A bunch of links in this as usual but some are paywalls:

      Everywhere is the frontline for climate crisis as the Beaufort Gyre set to release its freshwater.
      Some of the comments:

      “Chemically the old Arctic Ocean is gone, and we now have a dipole of sorts. Fish Out of Water is a geochemist, he can probably elaborate on it. From my background in geophysical fluid dynamics it seems that there will be density, temperature, and salinity gradients that will create instabilities we’ve never seen.”

      “This is not the domino effect, because it is not linear, but rather multi dimensional, making outcomes much more difficult to predict. News like this makes it hard for me to keep my head above water”

      At least some people get it, ya know? People are getting more aware and it’s just too damned late and the wealthy don’t want to stop their revenue streams anyway. The failure of our species are numerous and compounding daily…


      Liked by 1 person

  14. Kevin Hester says:

    “According to US NOAA observatory recordings, in early April 2023 average surface temperatures of the oceans, excluding polar waters, hit an all-time high of 21.1°C (70°F). More than a passing interest, that all-time high might be goosed much higher by an upcoming El Niño weather phenomenon, triggering the ocean heat bomb by loading more onto the climate system. As such, the 2022 unprecedented disaster year, whacking every continent with destabilizing floods, droughts, heat, and fire may be bush-league when compared to what’s in store for 2023-24.”


    • It’s already getting hot here, Kevin. Not as bad as a couple hundred miles north but fuck, it’s only mid-May and I’m seeing near 30’C temps and it’s freaking hotter 300 miles west of me in Seattle and Portland!

      I’ve got a monster heat dome north of me blasting Canada with Alberta (the tar sand lands) burning the hell up with multiple wildfires and expected record temps the next few days. The Jet Stream is doing really weird shit, dude!

      Full throttle El Nino heat by July here in the Pacific N/W was the latest I read. I’ll be hiding inside again. Just like I’ve been doing the last few years already…


      Liked by 1 person

  15. This is Alberta Canada, the ‘Tar Sands Zone,’ right now in mid-May. They have 90 freaking wildfires burning already, some completely out of control, and look at the smoke plume on this satellite vid. It looks like it’s going to hit Greenland!

    Don’t breathe in Calgary!

    Hooollllleeeeee shit. Anybody else getting a little worried for the full impact of El Nino expected by July???

    Temps supposed to creep up to 32C by this coming weekend, already in the 28-30C zone the last few days with one very strange t-storm downpour that roared in Monday late night-after 1am, with a huge lightning show that blew in from mostly from the southeast (which was a strange direction for this time of year). Lightning everywhere, spider going in all directions and huge bolts grounding. By 6:30am Tuesday morning it was absolutely pounding rain, two inches in my outside cup in an hour. Then it went away.and hit 28C in the afternoon.

    The humidity sucked.

    Yep, Kev, there is no hiding from it which is what I did when I moved north to here 20 years ago. Got a few more good years in but everything catches up in the, end, eh mate?


    Liked by 1 person

  16. Kevin Hester says:

    A reflection of how narrow and siloed modern science has become is that this article concentrates on the short-term financial implications and only brushes over the reality of the triggering of additional tipping. Additionally, there’s not a hint of the “Precautionary Principle”. pointspoints


    • Massive T-storm rolled in this afternoon from the N/W with lightning going off like strobe lights in the daytime. I was in Chewelah 15 miles north of the property dropping off books and picking up the 4 yr old and her mom for an afternoon at Seal & Cinnamon’s house. the casino sign on the highway read 98’F about 3pm. My house said almost 90’F so it was definitely hotter in the valley north of here.

      The young woman behind the bar at Fired Up Pizza & Brew Pub where I re-stocked my books said it was just pouring 20 miles north when she came to work earlier, huge drops and downpour micro-burst style.

      Try to keep up with a hyper 4.5 yr old, dude! In my dojo working out, in the music room playing every hand percussion instrument and the piano and pounding on the congas and bongo drums, sometimes at the same time. Running up and down the stairs and then as the evening set in and it cooled down she was out running when my neighbor friends dropped by with their old guy dog and Riley the young energetic runner boy dog and she went running off with him and Cinners around the house and across the property and through the trees and back and just had such a wonderful time. As I said, ADD girl no doubt as I taught Pre-K in the late mid & late 80s and all the signs are there. Extremely intelligent and curious and wants to know everything. NEVER stop running even as she crashes to the ground over and over. Never cries or complains about falling but I can see it does bother her but she doesn’t say anything. A full speed ahead girl. And gets frustrated with herself when she can’t do things. Hasn’t learned yet that you can back up and find another way, ya know? Yep, ADD and hyperactive and too much fun.

      Fed them spicy thin-sliced breaded pork chops, near freezer cold applesauce to dip the chops in, and cheddar cheese mashed potatoes but because it was so warm today the house had to air out at & after dark before I cooked dinner because none of us were hungry until it started cooling off.

      Funny how it’s cooler inside all day then suddenly it gets dark and the house is stifling and all the windows get opened with fans in some of them blowing the hot air out while the swamp cooler works overtime downstairs.

      My neighbors Amy & Chris brought me a Chocolate Creme Pie for finishing the weeks of driving for them. I’ve been taking in their high school senior this last couple of months so he could finish up, 18 miles down into Spokane county (she’s the new Purple Belt student that I’m standing with in my dojo in my book). Her son got his car back and is driving himself the last three weeks so I’m done with the chauffeuring! So we ate pieces of that pie for dessert. Incredibly rich, wow and seriously overwhelming.

      So I took them home at 11:30pm driving north right into a monster lightning show that had fallen down on us in N/E Washington State. All of it was north of me, couldn’t see it from the west side of the ridge where I live until we got down to the 2 lane blacktop highway heading north.

      Huge bolts coming out of the sky, count of two before it would blink off from where it grounded. Be fire crews out chasing tomorrow no doubt! Had giant spider lightning spreading 20-30 miles west to east with multiple arms jumping through the clouds at various elevations and directions all at the same time. Cloud masses were positively huge as detonations went off and lit up the t-head pillars that had to be above 40,000 feet…blindingly bright back-lit. We drove right up into the southern edge of it to drop them off at their house. Great view and even Arabella in the back child seat of my old ’95 4runner was able to see most of the strikes. Puddles everywhere in Chewelah, obviously had rained very hard sometime earlier in the evening but not a drop at my place.

      I am sitting here at almost 1am, the smell of t-storm coming in the windows, about to light a bowl of homegrown from last year’s garden, and ready to dive back into the Steve Bull/Olduvai trilogy. Still in part one but, as you would imagine, it’s very much like what he posts but in story format. He’s got some optimism in him but he’s got underage kids (teenager girls or something?) but the writing…isn’t and in the first part where I am now shit has hit the fan, economic/power grid gone/oil shock/food supply with even Canada in martial law and the protagonist is walking across Canada trying to get to his prepper older brother’s house… Somehow I don’t think it’s going to end well, ya know?

      That’s it, no links to add as I did something else today!


      Liked by 1 person

  17. Kevin Hester says:

    This otherwise good article dwells on the financial cost of the coming El Nino which personifies why we are in such dire trouble.
    Almost every analysis concentrates on the financial implications of the coming chaos and to a lesser degree the implications for the ecosystem.
    Having said that, if the next El Nino collapses the global economy, we’ll see the loss of the aerosol masking effect and a near doubling of anthropogenic warming!
    So much to “Look Forward” to, so little time.


  18. Kevin Hester says:

    “These global-level rates of human-driven change far exceed the rates of change driven by geophysical or biosphere forces in the past.” The report then quotes two peer-reviewed papers, before going on: “even abrupt geophysical events do not approach current rates of human-driven change.” In other words, the ongoing, anthropogenic climate change underlies the fastest rate of environmental change in planetary history.”
    The critical detail is the rate of change we are witnessing, even in a triple dip La Nina. Records aren’t being simply beaten; They are being annihilated.
    The Arctic Sea Ice minimum usually occurs around the 20th of September. The El Niño Southern Oscillation will undoubtedly play a role in the Arctic ecosystem which is warming at a rate 4 times as fast as the rest of the world.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Kevin Hester

Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water.  I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.

My Submission to the Ministry of the Environment
Kevin Hester, Dropping Anchor in an Exponential World
Follow Kevin Hester on
Blog Stats
  • 443,541 hits
2C 4C 5C 6th Great extinction 16 Ocean Passages Abrupt Climate Change Acidification of Oceans Alaska North Slope Alberta AMEG Anecdotes of Neil Finn and My Life "Colliding" Anthropogenic Climate Disruption-ACD Anthropogenic Emissions Anti-Nuclear Appearances Arctic Methane Emergency Group Arctic News Blog Arctic Sea Ice Assassination Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation-AMOC Atmospheric CO2 Australian Greens Baseline Temperature Dishonesty Ben Norton Beril Sirmacek Bill McKibben Bleaching Event BRIC's Brush Fire Canada Captain Paul Watson Catastrophe Cenozoic Era China Chris Hani Chris Mooney Class war Climate-Exodus Climate Change Research Centre Climate Wars CO2 Warming Collapse Contagion Coral Reefs Coral Sea Cory Morningstar CounterPunch Cruise Industry Dahr Jamail David Korowicz Deep Green Resistance Dimitri Lascaris Donald Trump Dr. Guy McPherson Dr. James E Hansen Dr. Mike Joy Dr Andrew Glikson Draught Dr Natalia Shakova Dying Oceans East Timor Ecocide Ecosystem collapse El Nino Endangered Dolphins Eric Draitser Erik Michaels Extinction Radio Feedback loops First Blue-Ocean Event in Arctic Food Crisis Forestry Fort McMurray Fukushima Daiichi Gaia Gene Gibson Geneva Conventions George Perkins Marsh Going Dark Great Barrier Reef Green Movement Guests Gulf Steam Gulf Stream System Habitat Habitat Wars Harold H. Hensel Heatwave Mass Casualties Imperialism India Interviews Invitations IPCC IRA Ireland Ireland unfree Irish Freedom Movement Isis Jack Williams Jason Box Jennifer Hynes Joanna Macy John Kiriakou John McMurtry John Pilger John Schramski Karl Marx Katharine Hayhoe Katie Goodman Kevin's New Webpage Kevin Lister Kevin Trenberth Kris Van Steenbergen Larissa Waters Limits to Growth Livestream Mairead Farrell Malcolm Light Mangroves Mark Eakin Mass Marine Death Max Wilbert Mean Air Tempature Michael C. Ruppert Michael Dowd Michael E Mann Mid-East Middle East Mike Sliwa Monarch Butterflies Most Abnormally Warm Month Recorded. Nafeez Ahmed Naomi Klein Nature Bats Last Nelson Mandela New Webpage New Zealand North Africa November Speaking Tour with Guy McPherson Novosibirsk Reservoir Nuclear Nuclear War Overdevelopment-Overpopulation-Overshoot P.M. Kohn Key-Eco Terrorist Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum--PETM Patsy O'Hara Paul Beckwith Paul Craig Roberts Paul Ehrlich Pauline Panagiotou Schneider Pauline Schneider Paul Street Pepe Escobar Perfect Storm permafrost Peter Sinclair Phytoplankton PM John Key Podcast Pollution PRN Professor Paul Beckwith Prof Guy McPhersons Abrupt Climate Change Tour NZ 2016 Psychopathic Records of Air Tempatures Relief Analysis Richar Vivers RobertScribbler Robin Westenra Runaway Abrupt Climate Change Runaway Global Warming Russia Sam Carana SeeMoreRocks Blog Seymour Hersch Siberia-Yamal-Taimyr Sinn Fein South African Communist Party South Florida Corals South Pacific Storms of Our Grandchildren-James E Hansen Subsea Methane Super Exponential Supply Chain Breakdown Sustainability Syria Syrian Conflict Temperature Anomalies TEPCO The Collapse of Industrial Civilisation The Pain You Feel Thom Hartmann Tipping Points Titanic Tour NZ 2016 Transport Truthout Umkhonto we Sizwe United Nations Updates US Presidential Elections War Crimes Warmest February on Record Warmest Russian Winter Warnings Water Vapor Weather Channel wet-bulb temperature William Kallfelz World War World War Three
%d bloggers like this: