7 Degrees C Global Warming within a lifetime?

There are a body of scientists and researchers that have been warning that we have crossed a multitude of tipping points and have slipped into runaway abrupt climate change.
Myself and Robin Westenra interviewed N.Z. climate scientist and Nobel Peace Prize winning IPCC panel member  Dr Jim Salinger in November 2015 when he stated he believes we have been in abrupt climate change since 2010 at least.
The first person to bring it to my consciousness was Professor Guy McPherson, professor emeritus of the University of Arizona. McPherson has been vilified and  ostracised for speaking about the imminent extinction of the human race. “Shoot the messenger”, a time honoured response from despots to un-palliative news.
As every day passes more evidence is appearing that runaway abrupt climate change is underway and McPherson’s dire predictions based on synthesizing a multitude of positive reinforcing loops is becoming more and more impossible to refute. Please note that I spent the first 2 years after learning of McPherson’s analysis trying in vain to disprove his conclusions.
” New research suggests the Earth’s climate could be more sensitive to greenhouse gases than thought, raising the spectre of an ‘apocalyptic side of bad’ temperature rise of more than 7C within a lifetime”, covered here in  The Independent. This latest mainstream media article makes the point that we could have a 7C temperature rise within a generation, myself and Professor McPherson believe we are well into that window already.

Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming as detailed in a paper  at advances.sciencemag.org

Where would a 7C temperature rise leave planet earth?
In a well researched 2008 article in The Guardian, Oliver Tickell surmised;
On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction .
The extinction of the human race will leave this planet bathing in ionising radiation from the melt-down of 450 nuclear plants and the subsequent 1200  spent fuel pool fires which will aerosol radionuclides into the atmosphere in a firestorm of heat and radiation yet to be witnessed on this planet.Perhaps our most long lasting legacy.
The below photo was taken at the crater edge at Tana, Vanuatu on one of my ocean passages.
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What can we do now that we are in runaway and a climate change denier is the President elect in the second largest emitting nation on the planet? Trump has called global warming “bullshit”
Hope for the best, plan for the worst,as we face the perfect storm.
Another pressing ‘Tipping point’ will be the collapse of industrial civilisation once all faith is lost in the dire situation we find ourselves in. This event could unfold with one single climatic event like the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Shelf or the discharge of the 50 gigatonne methane burst as predicted my Dr’s Shakova and Semiletov of the University of Fairbanks Asaska. This makes everything we love and hold dear a day to day proposition.
Methane Hydrates, Extended interview with Natalia Shakova by Nick Breeze
The situation could not be more dire, I can say that without a hint of hyperbole.
Professor McPherson and I will be touring NZ speaking about this predicament. Readers world wide can follow the tour via Facebook as we will live-stream some of the Keynote Presentations from the universities where we will be speaking.
Over the years I have completed 16 ocean passages on small yachts, over half as skipper. One of the over-riding responsibilities of a captain is to keep his passengers, crew, vessel and anyone who can come into contact with it safe at all times and when disaster strikes be brutally honest with the truth, which enables everyone to prepare as best they can.
I believe we should be declaring a Global Climate Emergency, it will be one of the key aims of our forthcoming tour to pressure the political parties of NZ to face the reality of our predicament, most especially the Green Party of Aotearoa N.Z.. Valuable time is being lost in the denial of abrupt climate change.
At the edge of extinction, only love remains.

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The Case for Declaring a Global Climate Emergency.

The IPCC was first established in 1988 and in the subsequent  28 years there have been 21 COPS with COP22 about to commence in Marrakesh, Morocco.

What is the COP?

“The COP is the supreme decision-making body of the Convention. All States that are Parties to the Convention are represented at the COP, at which they review the implementation of the Convention and any other legal instruments that the COP adopts and take decisions necessary to promote the effective implementation of the Convention, including institutional and administrative arrangements.”
What has the IPCC achieved in 28yrs?
As in all global agreements there is an enormous amount of haggling between nation states that are never equal. The larger the power base, either economic, by population or obscene military power, the more influence those nations wield, often like a club or a battering ram.The COPS have evolved into a talk-fest of epic proportions that make grandiose claims to have achieved agreement on emissions reductions that are both  voluntary and Guarantee that the biosphere will collapse. Even the IPCC admits that their agreements will not spare us the worst effects of climate change.
We are patently in a Global Climate Emergency yet there is not one nation with perhaps the exception of Kiribati, that is prepared to declare an EMERGENCY.
Our planet is ruled by a global capitalist ideology that is in an eternal pursuit of growth, when it is patently clear that it is impossible to have infinite growth on a finite planet.
The pursuit of that unobtainable goal has led to a level of Ecocide  that now threatens all complex life on this planet.
Myself and Professor Guy McPherson, Professor Emeritus of the University of Arizona are about to commence a nation wide tour of Aotearoa New Zealand.
The purpose of the tour is to break through the cognitive dissonance that controls the narrative around abrupt climate change and to expose the extraordinary danger we are now facing as we tumble over the precipice of planetary armageddon.
I have recently had a  conversation with Meteria Turei New Zealand member of Parliament and the female co-leader of the Green Party alongside James Shaw. I asked that she discuss with the party executive the merits of declaring a Global Planetary Emergency.
Whilst I like co-leader of the Green Party of Aotearoa as a person, I am dismayed at the total lack of urgency being shown by the party and their clinging to an out dated strategy and Climate Change Policy . The position that was conveyed to me by Ms Turei is that the party believes if they  address the potential for collapse as I see it, people will no longer feel the need or motivation to mitigate personally. I believe that assumption is both erroneous and patronising to those of us who care and fails to understand that no matter what we do now as individuals the biosphere is in early stage runaway and can’t be stopped. Of course what we can do is take our foot off the abrupt climate change accelerator and slow down the armageddon, declaring a Climate Emergency is a first and logical strategy to force the powers that be to face our predicament.
My critique of the Green Party position is detailed Here 
The ongoing failure of both the Green Party of Aotearoa and leaders world wide to accept that we have crossed a multitude of Tipping Points as detailed in Professor McPherson’s Monster Climate Change Essay ensures that our communities are left unprepared for the chaos that is about to unfold in N.Z. and is already unfolding in small Polynesian nations and parts of the Middle East, that are already becoming uninhabitable Now, not far off in the distant future.
Professor McPherson and I are about to set sail on our nationwide tour, Facebook Events have been created to allow people to share information and to stimulate the debate. Many thanks to my unarmed army of helpers whose names are to many to mention here.
People world wide can follow the tour as we will livestream the keynote events and Documentary maker Pauline Schneider the producer/ director of  Going Dark a previous documentary on Professor McPherson’s work, will film the tour and produce another documentary. Come to the presentations in person, follow via livestream and be a part of the revolution to launch “The Case for Declaring a Global Climate Emergency.”
“At the edge of extinction, only love remains” GMP.

NASAGISS4-16

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Surfer rescued off treacherous beach

On the 10th of May 2015 myself and my dear friend Barbara Folkard had the good fortune to be able to play a small part in the rescue of a surfer off the West Coast of New Zealand.
Details of the search and rescue are embedded here

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Nature Bats Last November 2016

The latest excellent show on NBL on PRN.FM is embedded HERE.
This will be the last show before Professor Guy McPherson comes to Aotearoa NZ for his nationwide speaking tour beginning in three weeks.
All tour details are embedded in the Facebook Event Here;

The show covered many aspects of our unfolding climate catastrophe.
Many of the subjects covered by this blog were discussed including Global Dimming and the possibility of the psychopaths at the helm of our sinking ship opting for a nuclear winter.The almost certainty of us having a nuclear winter inflicted on us as a result of what I am calling Habitat Wars is embedded here;  Nuclear Winter  The insane ‘solution’ to slow down runaway abrupt climate change. I fervently hope that I am wrong about this hypothesis but with a warmongering  psychopath like Hillary Clinton being the front runner for the forthcoming US election anything is possible
One of the callers, Guyo Smith  made the point that we are already in early stage Runaway, a position held by the writer of this blog and Professor McPherson.
I believe complex life on this planet is now a day to day proposition with the possibility of one major climatic event being a Tipping Point in consciousness on the planet which could undermine faith in the entire economic system of industrial civilisation. In the event of the inevitable collapse of industrial civilisation we lose the dimming effect of all of our pollutants and runaway will be put on steroids, plus of course the melt down of 450 odd nuclear plants and 1200 spent fuel pool fires. Catch 22.

What we are doing to the Earth has no parallel in 66 million years
Another great show having the “Impossible Conversation” A book based on the “Impossible Conversation” is coming our soon penned by Dean Walker
“At the edge of extinction only love remains”.
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The implications of a Blue Ocean Event in the Arctic.

I was recently interviewed in conjunction with Sam Carana, Guy McPherson, Jennifer Hynes and  Peter Wadhams  by  Wolfgang Werminghausen  for a podcast on his website on the implications of a Blue Ocean event in the Arctic.

Paul Beckwith from the University of Ottawa has previously covered this danger. His You Tube presentation is embedded here;

Embedded below is the podcast with a number of important opinions on the threat we face of a Blue Ocean Event in the arctic.

SAG 008 ~ Blue Ocean Event – 10/27/16

Professor Guy McPherson and I will be discussing this issue and the unraveling of the biosphere  next month on our NZ wide speaking tour.
Presentation details and venues are listed in the Facebook event below;
Professor Guy McPherson’s Abrupt Climate Change tour NZ 20165976978978879789

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A Critique of The Green Party of Aotearoa N.Z. Climate Change Policy.

On the 27th of October, 2016, I attended two “Meet and Greet” public events with Green Party of Aotearoa co-leader and minister, Metiria Turei.
The turnout for these two events was abysmal and must have been disheartening for the organisers and the minister, with only a handful of people turning up to meet the co-leader.The turnout was simply appalling, but it got worse.
At the first event I counted 8 people excluding the Minister and ‘handlers'( one of whom lauded the “Progressive Barack Obama”, I pointed out that President Obama is currently bombing 7 countries, that the Pentagon is the single largest user of fossil fuels on the planet and that Obama is a functionary of the military industrial complex, he called that comment a conspiracy theory!! I additionally pointed out that the term “Conspiracy Theory” was coined by the C.I.A.).
At the second event there were only 5 people who bothered to turn up.This for the co-leader of a major political party! Alarm bells should be ringing loud and clear.
The purpose of me taking a 35 minute ferry ride across the Waitemata Harbour and a longer car drive across the congested city was to hand out flyers to the party faithful for my forthcoming  presentation with Professor Guy McPherson at the Unitec campus in Auckland. My carbon footprint for the effort, for what little was achieved was enormous due to the poor turnout.
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At the first meeting, I asked the minister to discuss with the party policy division the necessity and merits of declaring a planetary climate emergency, considering we are patently in the midst of one. I mentioned that NZ was the first country in the world where women ripped the right to vote, from the vice like grip of the patriarchy and that our nation had been a world leader in becoming the first nation to be declared nuclear free and that this presented a fantastic opportunity to lead from the front and set a global standard. The minister replied that we can’t tell everyone “That the world is going to hell in a hand basket, if we do, people will lose the will to act”. I find this position spurious, patronising and symptomatic of the failed system of not trusting members of the public with the truth. Anyone with an internet connection can see we are in an undeclared emergency, the lack of acceptance of that emergency will only make it worse and loses valuable time to warn and prepare our youth of the impending chaos. Understating the severity of the predicament does everyone a disservice.
I often use the analogy of the sinking of the Titanic to describe our unfolding climate catastrophe. After the Titanic had been holed by an iceberg, in it’s headlong rush to set a record in the trans-Atlantic passage on it’s maiden voyage. Within minutes, the Captain, designer and senior crew knew that the ship would founder and that there were insufficient life-rafts for the number of people on board, a result of arrogance and hubris, made in the design stage of the vessel when everyone was told that the ship would be un-sinkable. Famous last words!
The writer of this blog has completed 16 ocean passages on small cruising yachts. Had I been the skipper of the Titanic, I would have immediately released all the people from the below decks ‘Steerage compartments”, brought them to the grand saloon and told them of the severity of the predicament. I would have called for all the skilled tradespeople to gather together, form teams, choose skilled advisers and develop strategies to use the available furniture, ropes and buoyancy devices to make improvised life-rafts.
What they could have done in the calm, cold waters would be to launch the improvised life-rafts, tie them between two or more of the ships life-rafts and create floating platforms that the passengers could board keeping them out of the frigid Atlantic waters. This would have saved the bulk of the passengers had it been done and reduced some of the chaos that ensued. The opportunity to act was lost because only a small number of people were trusted with the knowledge that the ship was sinking.
Our biosphere is in collapse now, not far off in the future, we should be building “life-rafts ” now and the truth should be told, not withheld. We can’t save this sinking ship but we can prepare for the worst, buy time and relish the good times while they last.
I believe one of the reasons so little is being done is the false assumption that the worst effects of abrupt climate change won’t happen until long off in the future ( tell the people of Kiribati that!), when there is ample evidence that we are already in abrupt climate change.
The planet may have warmed 5C in 13 years once before, Professor Guy McPherson and I believe it could be happening again.

” Following a doubling in carbon dioxide levels, the surface of the ocean turned acidic over a period of weeks or months and global temperatures rose by 5 degrees centigrade – all in the space of about 13 years. Scientists previously thought this process happened over 10,000 years.

“We’ve shown unequivocally what happens when CO2 increases dramatically — as it is now, and as it did 55 million years ago,” Wright said. “The oceans become acidic and the world warms up dramatically.”
Think Progress article on this here;
Whilst it is not certain that this happened in such a short period of time, the mere fact that it is a possibility dictates that we should follow the precautionary principle and prepare for the worst.

Key principle #12 in the party  policy document reads “Transparency, credibility and education are essential if all stakeholders are to accept the policy framework and change their behaviour as a result.” I believe the Greens are in breach of this principle by not facing up to the severity of the predicament we are confronting, are not being “transparent” and totally lack credibility on this issue.
My reasons for resigning  from The Green Party earlier this year was covered here by The Daily Blog.
Dr James E Hansen, sometimes refered to as the “Grand Father of Climate Change” once believed that Planet Earth would “Go Venus”, the surface temperature of Venus is 462 degrees C, that melts lead. Whilst Hansen no longer believes that we will “Go Venus” it is now patently obvious that the planet will soon become uninhabitable.
Oliver Tickell in a well researched 2008 article in The Guardian stated that after we breach the 4C mark all we can expect is extinction.The article is embedded below;
On a planet 4 degrees C hotter all we can plan for is extinction.
4C could eventuate in as little as a decade!
Professor Guy McPherson and I will be conducting a nationwide speaking tour of N.Z. next month with our keynote presentations being live streamed to the net allowing those interested to follow the tour world wide. Tour details including venues are imbedded in the Facebook event below. Please feel free to invite any of your friends interested in the unfolding 6th Great Extinction
Professor Guy McPherson’s 2016 NZ Abrupt Climate Change Tour. 

“At the edge of extinction, only love remains”

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No Weapons Expo, No Warships NZ 2016

NZ Prime Minister John Key is inviting US warships back to NZ, the thin end of the wedge before we have US military bases in our country.
Not on my watch.
Video of my presentation embedded below.
No arms expo, no warships

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Kevin Hester
Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and planning Professor Guy McPherson’s November 2016 NZ and Australian speaking tour which is a follow up to the 2014 speaking tour. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water. I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.
My Submission to the Ministry of the Environment
Kevin Hester, Dropping Anchor in an Exponential World
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