Not 1.5C, Not 2C, a 10C Temperature Increase is Baked in.

“Losing the remaining Arctic sea ice and its ability to reflect incoming solar energy back to space would be equivalent to adding one trillion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, on top of the 2.4 trillion tons emitted since the Industrial Age, according to current and former researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego.”
“At current rates, this roughly equates to 25 years of global CO2 emissions.”
We’re actually heading for a 10C global mean temperature increase in the coming decade or two. Probably much sooner.


The three of us discussed the seminal work of Professor David Wasdell and his analysis that 10C is now baked into the climate system.
Peter Wadhams says: May 28, 2019 at 2:59 am(Edit)

“The analysis of climate sensitivity by David Wasdell is very important. I have been through it with him several times and am convinced of its validity. I mentioned it in “A Farewell to Ice”. The point is that here is a big difference between the short term sensitivity, which is used to calculate warming over a few years, and the long term sensitivity which represents how much warming the earth is going to be subjected to if you don’t add more CO2 but let the effects of the present levels work their way fully through the climate system. Short term sensitivity is 2-4.5 C, but long term is more like 10C. The crime of IPCC and other modelling outfits is that they are aware of this difference between short and long term, but still use the short term value even when they are doing hand-waving studies of what is going to happen over the next century or two. In fact it;’s not just the case that the magic 1.5C or 2C warming is already “baked in” to the global system – in fact the baked in figure is more like 4-5 C. Hence the vital need for carbon drawdown. Best wishes Peter Wadhams”


Professor Wasdell’s analysis is embedded here; Full Earth System Sensitivity to CO2 has been Grossly Underestimated
John Doyle mentioned the term Wet Bulb, I have covered that boiling issue here’ Wet Bulb Temperature Soon to Become Leading Cause of Death

We discussed the work of Dr Natalia Shakova, I highly recommend this interview with this great scientist; Methane Hydrates extended Interview Extracts With Natalia Shakhova

We discussed the issue that even Shell Petroleum admits that 5C is baked in, the evidence is embedded here; Oil Giants admit to a 5C Temperature Increase being baked in but no one else will!

This is the geo-engineering issue I mentioned; The Inevitability of Nuclear War and Subsequent Nuclear Winter

“Looking further forward to when all the methane will be released from under the World’s thawing permafrost Sir David warns us to expect not a few degrees of warming but as much as 20 degrees over the next few centuries.” Few Centuries, where have I heard that before ?

Sir David King: Climate Leadership, COP26, and 20 Degrees of Warming?



Posted in Uncategorized

Tim Merges the Worst Climate News in History with Epic Images


“Climate change is one of a host of environmental ills for which technological solutions are being proposed. In fact, most of the proposed solutions exacerbate environmental ills in other dimensions such as species loss and mass extinction. This tendency of technological reasoning to ‘bleed’ from one dimension or axis to another— to cause unintended consequences, is a function of the structure of this type of reasoning.”
“Paradoxically, calls for analytical rigor tend to narrow the realm of scientific concern, thereby raising the range of unintended consequences. This paradox is internal to the structure of technological reasoning. In practical terms, the 2018 IPCC Report on climate change relies on dubious technology to produce ‘negative carbon emissions.’ This both distracts attention away from more plausible methods and it could wildly exacerbate mass extinction.” Climate Change and Technology

Mark Brimblecombe’s piece de resistance on the mitigation myth is a must read;
“It is not nice to be told that you have been diagnosed with a terminal condition. It is even worse to be given false hope that if you did this or that you could mitigate the problem or turn it around when it cannot. If a medical practitioner does this, they lose their job. But climate scientists do this frequently, and probably to keep their job. It is virtue-signalling to agree with national and international climate agreements which propose that we can fix this by reducing (mitigating) our carbon footprint and carbon emissions… and so continue ‘business as usual’ and live happily ever after.” Climate Change and the Mitigation Myth



In the above video I mentioned the paper by Professor Corey Bradshaw suggesting that even Tardigrades are in danger. Our interview with Professor Bradshaw and links to the paper we discussed are embedded following; Professor Corey Bradshaw explains the unfolding “Extinction Cascades” on Nature Bats Last.

As we get closer to the collapse of the biosphere, I have been noticing a huge distortion, if not outright lying, in the use of baseline figures for the planetary temperature increase that humans have caused with our crack like and sadly terminal addiction to carbon. Baseline Temperature dishonesty at the Edge of Extinction




More information on the Aerosol Masking Effect; Science Update: Aerosol Masking Effect Previously Underestimated on Overheated Earth and here; Global Dimming Keeping the Planet Habitable

Source of the above quote; President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’




My latest interview with Beril Sirmacek. We had a few audio issues but after all it was recorded at the edge of extinction !!




I’ll sign off with the latest post from Sam Carana at the Arctic News Blog Spot;
“Terrifying Arctic methane levels”

A peak methane level of 3026 ppb was recorded by the MetOp-B satellite at 469 mb on December 11, 2021 am.”

Current rates and mechanisms of subsea permafrost degradation in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf



Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Arctic, Methane, Professor Guy McPherson, Sam Carana

“If We Lose the Arctic We Lose the Globe” We’ve Lost the Arctic

“Changes will happen decades earlier than previously thought.”
Now where have we heard that before?
“More rain than snow will fall in the Arctic and this transition will occur decades earlier than previously predicted, a new study led by the University of Manitoba (UM) and co-authored by scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at CU Boulder reports.”

New Climate Study Predicting More Rain Than Snow in the Arctic ‘Rings Alarm Bells’

“There are huge ramifications of these changes,” said the lead researcher, “all of which have implications on wildlife populations and human livelihoods.”
“There are huge ramifications of these changes, which we note in the paper, such as a reduction of snow cover, increased permafrost melt, more rain-on-snow events, and greater flooding events from increased river discharge, all of which have implications on wildlife populations and human livelihoods,” says lead researcher Michelle McCrystall, a postdoctoral fellow in UM’s Centre for Earth Observation Science in the Clayton H. Riddell Faculty of Environment, Earth, and Resources.
Rainfall in Arctic Will Soon Be More Common Than Snowfall – Decades Earlier Than Thought







“The Arctic is iconic for maintaining year-round ice and snow, but in the last decade, it has begun to transition to wetlands and open ocean. Emblematic of this change, in July 2020, the last intact ice shelf in the Canadian Arctic fell into the sea. Since first analyzed in 1902, the Milne ice sheet already lost 43 percent of its previous mass. Canada’s Ellesmere Island ice caps were also lost in the summer of 2020, as the ice deposited during the Little Ice Age (1600 to 1850) melted completely. Glacier melt, thawing permafrost and wetland expansion create a new landscape, changing ecosystems as well as altering the global atmosphere and ocean circulation.”
Climate tipping points: The Arctic is a bellwether for irreversible change
“It is fitting that we are meeting here in Arkhangelsk, a historical meeting place between the East and West. I approach the event in this spirit: Promoting a meeting of minds with a firm belief that the Arctic will indeed remain a “Territory of Dialogue,” said President Niinistö during his opening remarks at “The Arctic: Territory of Dialogue” forum in Arkhangelsk in North Russia. “My starting point today is the growing threat of climate change. Tackling this challenge is crucial if we want to ensure that the Arctic remains the place it is today. But the issue is of global significance: If we lose the Arctic, we lose the whole world.” President Niinistö of Finland April 3, 2017 
President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’

“Siberian Permafrost Turns Carbon-12 Tap On: Radiocarbon Diminishing in Air – by Albert Kallio Today there are over 27,000 recorded methane craters discovered on the Arctic Ocean’s sea bed and many have diameter of 1 km or wider. The largest methane crater found so far is 750 km² in its area and has lost from its deposit thickness over 300 metres (and all of that is pure carbon-12 that was originally within methane ice, of course).From the post ‘Siberian Permafrost Turns Carbon-12 Tap On: Radiocarbon Diminishing in Air’, at: “Siberian Permafrost Turns Carbon-12 Tap On: Radiocarbon Diminishing in Air

Methane Bubbles Alberta Canada
Anomalies of methane in the atmosphere over the East Siberian shelf: Is there any sign of methane leakage from shallow shelf hydrates? – by Shakhova, Semiletov, Salyuk and Kosmach (2008) 


“Losing the remaining Arctic sea ice and its ability to reflect incoming solar energy back to space would be equivalent to adding one trillion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, on top of the 2.4 trillion tons emitted since the Industrial Age, according to current and former researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego.”
“At current rates, this roughly equates to 25 years of global CO2 emissions.”

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Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Albert Kallio, Arctic, Arctic Sea Ice, Feedback loops

Climate tipping points: The Arctic is a Bellwether for Irreversible Change


“The Arctic is iconic for maintaining year-round ice and snow, but in the last decade, it has begun to transition to wetlands and open ocean. Emblematic of this change, in July 2020, the last intact ice shelf in the Canadian Arctic fell into the sea. Since first analyzed in 1902, the Milne ice sheet already lost 43 percent of its previous mass. Canada’s Ellesmere Island ice caps were also lost in the summer of 2020, as the ice deposited during the Little Ice Age (1600 to 1850) melted completely. Glacier melt, thawing permafrost and wetland expansion create a new landscape, changing ecosystems as well as altering the global atmosphere and ocean circulation.”   

“The term “tipping point” is often applied to a moment of critical change in human history. In ecology, tipping points describe small changes that, over time, force an irreversible change. Yearly lows of sea ice and a startling increase in permafrost thaw in a warming climate signal that the tipping point has already been crossed. We have already lost the frozen Arctic.”
Small tipping points expand through ecosystems

“As ice and snow are lost, the warming climate makes it difficult to recover. Sea ice that is only a few months old covers gaps in the Arctic Ocean, with yearly loss of old ice greater than the annual gain. In 2019, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that just 1 percent of the Arctic Ocean ice older than four years old remained. A warming atmosphere and sea prevent ice growth, leading to an ice-free Arctic Ocean.”
Climate tipping points: The Arctic is a bellwether for irreversible change
As previously covered on this blog;
“Losing the remaining Arctic sea ice and its ability to reflect incoming solar energy back to space would be equivalent to adding one trillion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, on top of the 2.4 trillion tons emitted since the Industrial Age, according to current and former researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego.”

“At current rates, this roughly equates to 25 years of global CO2 emissions.”

Cascading Consequences of the Loss of Arctic Sea Ice

President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’ 2017
“According to Niinistö, a further concern is the recent report made by Russian scientists that in Siberia there are some 7,000 methane-filled pockets waiting to release their content. “This will create danger and disruption to infrastructure and humans in the area. What is worse, once released, methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide,” Niinistö said and continued. “Eventually a warming climate will cause major challenges to everyone on this planet. In the Arctic, residents are facing immediate consequences that will fundamentally impact their communities and traditional livelihoods. Food security is threatened and new health concerns are emerging.”
President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’

Much of the above data was sourced here; Science Update: The Arctic is a Bellwether for Irreversible Change


Professor McPherson mentioned Dr Andrew Glikson from the Australian National University. We have previously interviewed this courageous scientist on Nature Bats Last on PRN.FM , that interview and links to his previous work is embedded below;
Tipping Points in the Earth Climate System. Dr Andrew Glikson returns to Nature Bats Last

Professor Glikson emailed me PDF’s to his more recent work. I’ve embedded links to the published works below;
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction

The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe

“The Path of Increase is slow but the road to ruin is swift”. Lucius Seneca

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The Soon to Erupt Climate Change Fuelled Wars

As we circle the drain of climate collapse we need to discuss the absolute certainty of the looming climate change driven wars.
All wars are resource wars. The single most valuable ‘resource’ we have is habitat and habitat is quickly collapsing. It is logical that the last habitat on the planet will trigger a fight to the death, nowhere will be spared . War tragically is all this culture seems to be good at.

My friend and colleague Kevin Lister wrote a book on this subject titled “The Vortex of Violence: and why we are losing the war on climate change”.
“Like the failures on climate change, nuclear non-proliferation talks have also failed with the same regularity. Despite the climate change crisis facing us, the world’s nuclear weapons states are collectively embarking on one of biggest upgrades of nuclear weapons systems ever.”

As the sociopath Elon Musk boasted “We’ll coup whoever we want”
” Journalist Max Blumenthal claimed that Musk’s unapologetic tweet “practically takes credit for the Bolivian lithium coup.”
“Bolivia’s former president, Evo Morales, resigned and fled the country last November following accusations of election fraud. In an interview with RT, he called the events “a coup” aimed at installing a right-wing leader who will open up Bolivia’s lithium reserves – some of the largest in the world – to exploitation by industry.”
Very soon the lithium for your EV will arrive dripping in invisible indigenous blood.

‘We will coup whoever we want’: Elon Musk sparks online riot with quip about overthrow of Bolivia’s Evo Morales

Check out Mark Brimblecombe’s in-depth analysis titled Climate Change and the Mitigation Myth. Tragically renewables are part of the problem not a solution.

“Climate change what the Pentagon calls a “threat multiplier” could put the world on course toward worsening chaos or even extermination as nuclear-armed nations scramble to cope with environmental dislocations and resource shortages, a danger that could define the future, says ex-CIA analyst Paul R. Pillar.” The ‘Threat Multiplier’ of Climate Change
It’s important to remember that the USA treats it’s own soldiers with the same disdain as it’s victims;
You Just Can’t Trust The U.S. Government : Fallout – Human Guinea Pigs

“And here is the most impressive bluff: Just like in Kyoto and Paris, in Glasgow too, emissions of hothouse gases by all the world’s militaries are outside the game. Even though armies are some of the worst polluters on the face of the earth, no one is discussing them, no one is counting then, no one is proposing that their swelling ranks be cut. And not one single government is reporting honestly about the amount of garbage its army spews into the air.”

“This is no accident; it’s intentional. The United States explicitly requested an exemption from such reporting as far back as Kyoto. Other governments joined it. Including Israel. To make the point clear, here’s an interesting statistic: There are 195 countries in the world, and 148 of them emit a lot less hothouse gas than the U.S. Army alone.” 
At Glasgow, Military Emissions Are Exempt

“As the US ramps up brinkmanship with Russia and China it has simultaneously upgraded its nuclear arsenal to make nuke blasts more destructive and thereby capable of eliminating an enemy’s underground warheads. This will make an enemy more likely to strike first to avoid being disarmed.”
A Sense Of Perspective, If You Please: Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix
“One of the most recent testaments to the U.S. military’s horrendous environmental record is Iraq.”
“U.S. military action there has resulted in the desertification of 90 percent of Iraqi territory, crippling the country’s agricultural industry and forcing it to import more than 80 percent of its food. The U.S.’ use of depleted uranium in Iraq during the Gulf War also caused a massive environmental burden for Iraqis. In addition, the U.S. military’s policy of using open-air burn pits to dispose of waste from the 2003 invasion has caused a surge in cancer among U.S. servicemen and Iraqi civilians alike.”
Militarism’s Role in the Sixth and Possibly Last ‘Great’ Extinction
 “In a nuclear war, immense nuclear firestorms in burning cities would create millions of tons of thick, black, radioactive smoke. This smoke would rise above cloud level and quickly surround and engulf the entire Earth. The smoke would form a stratospheric smoke layer that would block sunlight from reaching the surface of Earth for a period of about ten years.  Heated smoke in the stratosphere would cause massive destruction of the protective ozone layer. Huge amounts of harmful Ultraviolet light would penetrate the smoke and reach the surface of the Earth. Warming sunlight would be blocked by the smoke layer and cause the Earth to rapidly cool. In a matter of days, Ice Age weather conditions would descend upon all peoples and nations.”
The Inevitability of Nuclear War and Subsequent Nuclear Winter
Previously on this blog I mentioned that Aotearoa New Zealand will be over-run with climate change refugees; A Tsunami of Climate Change Refugees heading to Aotearoa New Zealand

“A senior Pentagon official warned the US military is “not ready” to handle climate change, a national security issue that touches nearly every aspect of Defense Department planning.”

“We are not where we should be, and now is beyond the time when we need to get in front of that challenge,” Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks told CNN.

“Beyond rising sea levels and extreme weather, climate change has opened up new areas of strategic competition like the Arctic and intensified the competition for scarce resources, such as the raw materials required to make the lithium-ion batteries crucial to electric vehicles.”
Senior Pentagon official warns the US military is ‘not ready’ for climate change

As we circle the drain of collapse I’ll add additional information to the comments section below, anyone reading this is invited to do the same. Have your say whilst you still have a voice. Subscribe to the blog if your open to the absolutely worst news of all time.
“Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light

Though wise men at their end know dark is right,
Because their words had forked no lightning they
Do not go gentle into that good night.

Good men, the last wave by, crying how bright
Their frail deeds might have danced in a green bay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Wild men who caught and sang the sun in flight,
And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way,
Do not go gentle into that good night.

Grave men, near death, who see with blinding sight
Blind eyes could blaze like meteors and be gay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

And you, my father, there on the sad height,
Curse, bless, me now with your fierce tears, I pray.
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.”

Dylan Thomas – 1914-1953


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CopOut26, B Grade Cabaret Not Science


Mercifully, the charade known as Cop 26 has drawn to it’s ignominious end.
Almost all commentators are describing this latest Cop as a near total failure. As I have mentioned previously in this space it’s a near total success. The USA created the IPCC to prevent activists scientists from holding Capitalism’s feet to the abrupt climate change fire. It’s Time to Acknowledge the Spectacular Success of the IPCC.

In our video critique of the charade below I quoted the hyperlinked article from Democracy Now;
“Critiques of COP26 from activists both inside and outside its walls range from business as usual to abject failure. The United Kingdom’s shambolic management of the event, its strict visa requirements and its failure to deliver on its promised, pre-COP vaccination plan for attendees from nations with low vaccine availability have made this summit the whitest, most privileged COP in its 30-year history.” “While widespread access challenges have prevented thousands from participating, over 500 oil, gas and coal lobbyists have been given the red carpet treatment. If they were a nation, according to a new Global Witness report, they would be the largest delegation at COP26.”
Like Locusts, Lobbyists Swarm COP26 in Glasgow

“And here is the most impressive bluff: Just like in Kyoto and Paris, in Glasgow too, emissions of hothouse gases by all the world’s militaries are outside the game. Even though armies are some of the worst polluters on the face of the earth, no one is discussing them, no one is counting then, no one is proposing that their swelling ranks be cut. And not one single government is reporting honestly about the amount of garbage its army spews into the air.”

“This is no accident; it’s intentional. The United States explicitly requested an exemption from such reporting as far back as Kyoto. Other governments joined it. Including Israel. To make the point clear, here’s an interesting statistic: There are 195 countries in the world, and 148 of them emit a lot less hothouse gas than the U.S. Army alone.” 
At Glasgow, Military Emissions Are Exempt

“One of the most recent testaments to the U.S. military’s horrendous environmental record is Iraq.”
“U.S. military action there has resulted in the desertification of 90 percent of Iraqi territory, crippling the country’s agricultural industry and forcing it to import more than 80 percent of its food. The U.S.’ use of depleted uranium in Iraq during the Gulf War also caused a massive environmental burden for Iraqis. In addition, the U.S. military’s policy of using open-air burn pits to dispose of waste from the 2003 invasion has caused a surge in cancer among U.S. servicemen and Iraqi civilians alike.”
Militarism’s Role in the Sixth and Possibly Last ‘Great’ Extinction

Now for the Rogues Gallery;


“Jennifer Morgan, executive director of Greenpeace International, said: “It’s meek, it’s weak and the 1.5C goal is only just alive, but a signal has been sent that the era of coal is ending. And that matters.”
Anyone saying that the 1.5C rubicon can be met is either ignorant or lying. Yet again Greenpeace, an organisation once very close to my heart, continues to be part of the problem by understating the level of warming we have already experienced / triggered.
Greenpeace’s corporate structure and hundreds perhaps thousands of paid ‘activists’ require donations. It’s easier to sell hope than doom, convenient lies are preferred to inconvenient truths
Cop26 ends in climate agreement despite India watering down coal resolution

“Alok Sharma, the UK cabinet minister who presided over the fortnight-long Cop26 talks in Glasgow, acknowledged the scale of the task remaining: “We can now say with credibility that we have kept 1.5C alive. But, its pulse is weak and it will only survive if we keep our promises and translate commitments into rapid action.”
Cop26 ends in climate agreement despite India watering down coal resolution
Cop26: the goal of 1.5C of climate heating is alive, but only just

A quote from George Monbiot well known British environmental journalist who writes for the Guardian, a journalist  who incidentally has never uttered a word of support for fellow journalist Julian Assange currently being publicly tortured to death in Belmarsh Prison;
“The richest 1% of the world’s people (those earning more than $172,000 a year) produce 15% of the world’s carbon emissions: twice the combined impact of the poorest 50%. On average, they emit over 70 tonnes of carbon dioxide per person every year, 30 times more than we can each afford to release if we’re not to exceed 1.5C of global heating.”
‘Wealth Curse’ George Monbiot.

Professor Kevin Anderson;
“Conjuring up such futuristic ‘negative emission technologies’ to help achieve the virtually impossible 1.5°C target is perhaps understandable, but such intergenerational buck-passing also dominates the IPCC’s 2°C advice.”
Impossible and virtually impossible are two different things. “To genuinely reduce emissions in line with 2°C of warming requires a transformation in the productive capacity of society, reminiscent of the Marshall Plan.”
Response to the IPCC 1.5°C Special Report by Kevin Anderson

Generally discussions on how much warming we have triggered are based around shifting baselines relative to “Industrial Civilisation’, this allows everyone to choose random dates anywhere from 1750 to 1850 when in reality humans have been altering the atmospheric loading of carbon since mastering the ‘art’ of using fire hundreds of thousands of years ago and at scale since civilisations emerged as long ago as 4000 BC
The beginning of civilisation and agriculture was the seed of our demise. We bloomed into a terminal plague.
” The earliest civilizations developed between 4000 and 3000 BCE “
We should be going back at least 1000 years before estimating how much anthropogenic warming we have triggered, the devil is in the detail.
As #Copout26 ground to it’s illogical but predetermined end there is much talk/lies about how much warming we have seen since the beginning of industrial civilisation. They lie by juggling baseline dates even though we have evidence of coal being burnt in 1183 in County Durham for the ironwork of the ploughs at near by Coundon in the not very United Kingdom;
Baseline Temperature dishonesty at the Edge of Extinction

It should be no surprise to anyone that a violent racist patriarchy has underestimated climate sensitivity









“If hope becomes something you express through illusion it’s not hope it’s fantasy.
Those who speak truth are marginalised and ignored. dismissed as pessimists in a culture that prides itself on a child like optimism at the expense of reality. We have a mania for hope which our corporate masters lavishly provide across the political and cultural spectrum to keep us passive”. Chris Hedges

Do not go gentle into that good night

Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Though wise men at their end know dark is right,
Because their words had forked no lightning they
Do not go gentle into that good night.

Good men, the last wave by, crying how bright
Their frail deeds might have danced in a green bay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Wild men who caught and sang the sun in flight,
And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way,
Do not go gentle into that good night.

Grave men, near death, who see with blinding sight
Blind eyes could blaze like meteors and be gay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

And you, my father, there on the sad height,
Curse, bless, me now with your fierce tears, I pray.
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Dylan Thomas – 1914-1953

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It’s Time to Acknowledge the Spectacular Success of the IPCC.


“US support was probably critical to IPCC’s establishment. And why did the US government support it? Assistant Undersecretary of State Bill Nitze wrote to me a few years later saying that our group’s activities played a significant role. Among other motivations, the US government saw the creation of the IPCC as a way to Prevent the activism stimulated by my colleagues and me from controlling the policy agenda.”
The home of climate change denial was instrumental in setting up the IPCC.

“I suspect that the Reagan Administration believed that, in contrast to our group, most scientists were not activists, and would take years to reach any conclusion on the magnitude of the threat. Even if they did, they probably would fail to express it in plain English. The US government must have been quite surprised when IPCC issued its first assessment at the end of 1990, stating clearly that human activity was likely to produce an unprecedented warming.”

Source How the IPCC Got Started; https://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/11/01/ipcc_beginnings/?fbclid=IwAR2zAs7si4qlWlKGbvwbsHjGS9Eh9DJlRt0isWqva97INhqOGuin5yF1vgU


The IPCC was designed to fail, part of their mandate is to not make recommendations that would constrict economic growth.

Chair of the IPCC Dr Rajendra Pachauri, Valencia Spain, Nov 17, 2007.

“If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment”

Survivable IPCC projections based on science fiction.
“In the latest ‘Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report’ (IPCC AR5), there have been published a selection of ‘Representative Concentration Pathways’ (RCP’s).
Dr Matt Watson, from the school of earth Sciences at the University of Bristol (UK), made this point strongly at a recent meeting at the Royal Society in London:“ Why are we doing this? Why are we doing this research? This is why, this is the latest projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and the alarming thing is that these two scenarios [RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5] both include negative emissions technology. So, there is geoengineering, of the flavour of carbon dioxide removal, in the best case scenarios.”
“The very, very alarming thing for us is that we are on this path here, that is RCP 8.5. We are slap bang on this trajectory and this puts us in a very different place in our children’s lifetime.”
All hope of maintaining a liveable planet has been gambled on negative emissions technology that simply does not exist. In fact it is “Fantasy Technology” that they hope will be invented sometime in the future.

https://kevinhester.live/2017/05/18/survivable-ipcc-projections-based-on-science-fiction/?fbclid=IwAR2HILYi5cbnVaQrzMI9c6iVevtdm063J4cDGQckof8V_5XdqRVwFZC6D3A








“I say to my soul be patient and wait without hope for to hope is to hope for the wrong thing”
T.S. Elliot

“If hope becomes something you express through illusion then it’s not hope, it’s fantasy”.
“Those who speak truth are marginalised and ignored, dismissed as pessimists in a culture that prides itself on a child like optimism at the expense of reality.”
“We have a mania for hope which our corporate masters lavishly provide across the political and cultural spectrum to keep us passive”.
Chris Hedges American Psychosis available on Vimeo.

In his 1926 novel “The Sun Always Rises” Hemingway describes how the end comes about when you lose everything. One character named Bill asked “How did you go bankrupt?” “Two ways” Mike replied, Gradually and then suddenly”.

“The Scientifically necessary is politically unfeasible, the politically feasible is scientifically irrelevant”
William Rees

“How do we live with the fact that we are destroying our world? What do we make of the loss of glaciers, the melting Arctic, island nations swamped by the sea, widening deserts, and drying farmlands?”

“Because of social taboos, despair at the state of our world and fear for our future are rarely acknowledged. The suppression of despair, like that of any deep recurring response, contributes to the numbing of the psyche. Expressions of anguish or outrage are muted, deadened as if a nerve had been cut. This refusal to feel impoverishes our emotional and sensory life. Flowers are dimmer and less fragrant, our loves less ecstatic. We create diversions for ourselves as individuals and as nations, in the fights we pick, the aims we pursue, and the stuff we buy.”

The Greatest Danger

–by Joanna Macy,
Source: http://www.dailygood.org/story/1821/the-greatest-danger-joanna-macy/

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Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future

The February episode of Nature Bats Last featured a conversation with Professor Paul Ehrlich where we discussed his recent bomb shell paper titled “Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future” co-written with two former guests on the show Corey Bradshaw and Geraldo Ceballos et al.
The episode is embedded here:

“We report three major and confronting environmental issues that have received little attention and require urgent action. First, we review the evidence that future environmental conditions will be far more dangerous than currently believed. The scale of the threats to the biosphere and all its lifeforms—including humanity—is in fact so great that it is difficult to grasp for even well-informed experts. Second, we ask what political or economic system, or leadership, is prepared to handle the predicted disasters, or even capable of such action. Third, this dire situation places an extraordinary responsibility on scientists to speak out candidly and accurately when engaging with government, business, and the public. We especially draw attention to the lack of appreciation of the enormous challenges to creating a sustainable future. The added stresses to human health, wealth, and well-being will perversely diminish our political capacity to mitigate the erosion of ecosystem services on which society depends. The science underlying these issues is strong, but awareness is weak. Without fully appreciating and broadcasting the scale of the problems and the enormity of the solutions required, society will fail to achieve even modest sustainability goals.”
Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future

Guy mentioned the following paper also co-written by Professor’s Ehrlich and Ceballos:
Abstract:
“The ongoing sixth mass species extinction is the result of the destruction of component populations leading to eventual extirpation of entire species. Populations and species extinctions have severe implications for society through the degradation of ecosystem services. Here we assess the extinction crisis from a different perspective. We examine 29,400 species of terrestrial vertebrates, and determine which are on the brink of extinction because they have fewer than 1,000 individuals.”
Vertebrates on the brink as indicators of biological annihilation and the sixth mass extinction

The issue of collapse and extinction is becoming more mainstream by the day. Check out the article below from the L.A. Times”
“It’s not hard to find the “collapseology” studies they are talking about. In a report for the sustainability group Future Earth, a survey of scientists found that extreme weather events, food insecurity, freshwater shortages and the broad degradation of life-sustaining ecosystems “have the potential to impact and amplify one another in ways that might cascade to create global systemic collapse.” A 2019 report from the Breakthrough National Center for Climate Restoration, a think tank in Australia, projected that a rapidly warming world of depleted resources and mounting pollution would lead to “a largely uninhabitable Earth” and a “breakdown of nations and the international order.” Analysts in the U.S. and British military over the past two years have issued similar warnings of climate- and environment-driven chaos”. Op-Ed: Collapseologists are warning humanity that business-as-usual will make the Earth uninhabitable

At the beginning of the interview I asked Paul how he was recovering from the Australian bush fires that wiped out 20% of Australia’s forest in one fire season: ‘Unprecedented’ globally: more than 20% of Australia’s forests burnt in bushfires

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Science Talk with Jim Massa on Nature Bats Last

The January 2021 episode of Nature Bats Last featured a discussion with Arctic research scientist Jim Massa. The episode is embedded here:


From our pre-show emails:
“Natalia and Igor have done an enormous amount of work studying the methane issue. They have covered a lot of area between the Russian side of the arctic ocean as well as Siberia itself examining what is happening to not only the ESAS and Laptev but the permafrost in the tundra itself. Those who are quick to dismiss their work, say they are being hyperbolic about the methane time bomb are really missing the forest for the trees. If they wish to debate their estimated levels, okay, have that debate. That’s a legitimate scientific debate. But to be dismissive of the threat posed by methane is imo a grave error in judgment.” Jim Massa

“Research into tiny zooplankton at the centre of Arctic food web reveals changing habits that could impact the entire eco-system”.
“The tiny zooplankton at the centre of the Arctic food web are being forced to end their winter ocean hibernation early in areas where the sea ice is melting – throwing the entire local eco-system into disarray, a team of scientists has found.”
Climate change is disrupting the Arctic eco-system as parts of the sea aren’t freezing

“It turns out the dolphins died because their habitat became desalinated, according to the scientists.”

“Over a decade after the 2007 mortality event, the group published a paper in Nature Scientific Reports tying the fatal dolphin condition, dubbed freshwater skin disease, to climate change.” 

“Other research over the past decade has implicated freshwater as the cause of deadly skin ulcers in dolphins and whales. The new paper provides more evidence for this and suggests that an increase in extreme weather events due to climate change has exposed dolphin populations to more freshwater.”
Mysterious Dolphin Deaths Linked To Climate Change In New Study

We discussed the issue of pathogens being reintroduced to the environment after being dormant in the ice and permafrost for thousands of years. I’ve covered that previously at the blog embedded here: Pestilence: Another Consequence of Losing the Cryosphere and the Permafrost

Jim’s You Tube channel is embedded below. To keep up with his important work subscribe and click the ‘bell’ symbol to receive an email notification when Jim publishes a new video at Science Talk with Jim Massa:

Jim’s twitter handle is Jim Massa (@jim27182) / Twitter
Also, please go to: Science Talk with Jim Massa is creating videos discussing science and scientific topics | Patreon and consider becoming a patron and support this work for as little as $3 or more per month.

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The Event Horizon; Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe

The December episode of Nature Bats Last which featured an interview with Dr Andrew Glikson from the Australian National University is embedded here.

We discussed the potential for the Arctic marine food web to collapse, more details on that aspect of this catastrophe are embedded here; Witnessing ice habitat collapse in the Arctic

“Algae that live in and under the sea ice play a much greater role for the Arctic food web than previously assumed. In a new study, biologists of the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research showed that not only animals that live directly under the ice thrive on carbon produced by so-called ice algae. Even species that mostly live at greater depth depend to a large extent on carbon from these algae. This also means that the decline of the Arctic sea ice may have far-reaching consequences for the entire food web of the Arctic Ocean. Their results have been published online now in the journal Limnology & Oceanography.”
“We now know that ice algae play a much more important role for the pelagic food web than previously assumed. This finding also means, however, that the decline of the ice could have a more profound impact on Arctic marine animals, including fish, seals and ultimately also polar bears, than hitherto suspected,” says Doreen Kohlbach.” Cascading Consequences of the Loss of Arctic Sea Ice

I mentioned the extraordinary phenomenon of dust from the Sahara being carried into the Arctic. Check out; Changes in polar jet circulation bring more dust from Sahara Desert to the Arctic

After we were on air Professor McPherson and I joked about Andrew mentioning that “No one wants to be Casandra”, ain’t that the truth ! Guy and I laughed about the fact that we don’t want to be ‘Cassandra’s’ but we see it as a duty to both the youth and all the other species we take down with us to honestly confront the predicament we find ourselves in.
This is the article written by Dr Glikson for the Arctic News Blog; Accelerated global warming and stadial cooling events: IPCC oversights regarding future climate trends

We discussed the threat of methane eruptions in the Arctic which I have covered previously on this blog. Check out all the links in the comments section; Bubble, Bubble, GigaTons of Methane Trouble and the lack of urgency from the IPCC

An excerpt from Dr Glikson’s The Event Horizon Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
“With the advent of global warming and the nuclear arms race, humans are rapidly approaching a moment of truth. Technologically supreme, they manifest their dreams and nightmares in the real world through science, art, adventures and brutal wars, a paradox symbolized by a candle lighting the dark yet burning away to extinction, as discussed in this book. As these lines are being written, fires are burning on several continents, the Earth’s ice sheets are melting and the oceans are rising, threatening to flood the planet’s coastal zones and river valleys, where civilization arose and humans live and grow food.  With the exception of birds like hawks, black kites and fire raptors, humans are the only life form utilizing fire, creating developments they can hardly control. For more than a million years, gathered around campfires during the long nights, mesmerized by the flickering life-like dance of the flames, prehistoric humans acquired imagination, a yearning for omnipotence, premonitions of death, cravings for immortality and conceiving the supernatural. Humans live in realms of perceptions, dreams, myths and legends, in denial of critical facts, waking up for a brief moment to witness a world that is as beautiful as it is cruel. Existentialist philosophy offers a way of coping with the unthinkable. Looking into the future produces fear, an instinctive response that can obsess the human mind and create a conflict between the intuitive reptilian brain and the growing neocortex, with dire consequences. As contrasted with Stapledon’s Last and first Man, where an advanced human species mourns the fate of the Earth, Homo sapiens continues to transfer every extractable molecule of carbon from the Earth to the atmosphere, the lungs of the biosphere, ensuring the demise of the planetary life support system.”
“In Greek mythology, the Titan Prometheus had a reputation as being something of a clever trickster and he famously gave the human race the gift of fire and the skill of metalwork, an action for which he was punished by Zeus, who ensured everyday that an eagle ate the liver of the Titan as he was helplessly chained to a rock.” Prometheus

The Event Horizon

Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe


My ‘Antidote to despair’ is to volunteer at the Rakino Island Nursery on a rewilding project. Dr Glikson’s is to write poetry. Links to his poetry and his previous interviews are embedded here; Tipping Points in the Earth Climate System. Dr Andrew Glikson returns to Nature Bats Last

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Kevin Hester

Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water.  I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.

My Submission to the Ministry of the Environment
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