Everything is Falling Apart: Don’t Look Up, Look Around.

A multi-pronged analysis of the meta-crises we face or should I say, don’t face!
WW3 under way in Europe, a regional conflict and 11month old genocide underway in West Asia, the drums of war being beaten in the South China Sea in anticipation of what the late great John Pilger called “The Coming War on China” and its subsequent ecological carnage, and the climate crisis, unravelling from Pole to Pole, from the depths of our oceans to the top of the atmosphere, contemporaneous with a Global Economy that is nothing short of a Ponzi Scheme.
The Apartheid state, in occupied Palestine, in a complex, state orchestrated terrorist act, inserted high explosives into innocuous electric devices, killing and maiming thousands of innocent people and some of their intended targets, or their children sitting nearby.
An Iranian diplomat lost an eye! ”
Iranian ambassador to Lebanon loses eye in explosive pager attack

“Mojtaba Amani was carrying one of pagers that detonated, resulting in loss of one eye and severe injuries to another: his condition critical enough to require transfer back to Iran for further treatment”. Surely Iran will see this as an act of war against their diplomat!
This act of terrorism represents a paradigm shift into more and more overt acts of fascism brutally inflicted on innocent and sometime not so innocent members of the resistance.
I never believed that President Raisi’s death was an ‘accident’, now we hear that he had a pager! Hezbollah Pager Link To Raisi’s Chopper Crash? Iranian Official Makes Bombshell Claim
Killing a nations President is by definition a declaration of war!

It is my contention that everyone in Concentration Camp Gaza is a hostage. On October the 7th 2023 we witnessed those hostages rebelling, as is their revolutionary and parental duty. If you imprison people long enough under pressure cooker stresses, don’t be surprised when they explode and rebel! VIDEO: What really happened on October 7?
Will we soon be stopped from bring phones, tablets etc, onto an airplane/ship, into a busy supermarket, a bus, a taxi, a school, a train on the way to work where many people use that commuting time productively? Has that human right now been extinguished?
This act of terrorism brings a whole new level of stresses to our lives, for people in the occupied territories, no electrical device is now deemed safe, that insecurity will sweep across the war-ravaged planet as “Copy-cat” attacks will surely follow, Mossad has unleashed a monster!

In occupied Ireland the British army and their cohorts in Loyalist terror gangs carried out a policy of “Shoot to Kill”, giving them license to execute people. Two cases in point. “After I left the occupied six counties, I went to Gibraltar to help a friend’s computer company install computers at a new bank.”
“I had to walk over the footpath where Mairead Farell, Dan McCann and Sean Savage were murdered in cold blood by the British SAS on March 6th, 1988. Mairéad was shot in the back along with her comrades Séan Savage and Daniel McCann, as they walked unarmed on a suburban street in Gibraltar. Britain always denied that they had a “Shoot to Kill” policy with us Irish Republicans but the evidence is clear.

Sean was shot 18 times. “Farrell, Watson said, “was hit by five bullets to the face and neck and three in the back. Danny McCann was shot twice in the head and twice in the back.”
I was in Gibraltar doing electrical work and delivering yachts around the Mediterranean. One person told me that the day after our three brave volunteers were executed council workers arrived with pneumatic jack hammers to chip the lead out of bullet impacts on the pavement, from the execution shots fired vertically down into my wounded comrades. They destroyed the evidence in what was clearly a crime scene.

Executed in a public street whilst walking unarmed, when they could have easily been arrested. Not so much as a warning was given, the intention was always assassination, not arrest.
Gone but never forgotten comrades.
18 BULLETS HIT IRA MAN, GIBRALTAR INQUEST TOLD

I sat with Suzanne whilst she told me of the day when her husband Ronnie Bunting and best man at their wedding Noel Little were assassinated and there was no doubt whatsoever in Suzanne’s mind that the assailants were well trained, military hitmen. The Brits smashed their way into the house all dressed in matching black & wearing Balaclava’s, spraying bullets indiscriminately in every direction. After wounding my three IRSP comrades, they systematically went over to Noel and Ronnie’s wounded, bleeding bodies and added execution shots to ensure they were dead, Suzanne witnessed that. They didn’t do the same to Suzanne because part of her face had been effectively blown off and they assumed she was dead. It was the most brutal story I have ever heard, and I heard it from the only surviving witness, with all the facial reconstruction scars to show the horrors of her injuries. The above paragraph from my essay: Grace Gifford and Joseph Mary Plunket – A Love Story like No Other.

I delivered a 49ft Ketch from Gib’ to Greece: ” Myself and one other crewman set sail from Gib’ heading East across the coast of Africa and when we were offshore from Libya I heard a massive ‘explosion’ as a fighter jet broke the sound barrier directly over the boat. I received a VHF ‘call’ from the French Fighter Jet Pilot , as you do!!
Whilst he spoke to me the jet circled my yacht with one wing pointed at the sky and the other at the ocean!” A Conversation Between a French F111 Fighter Jet Pilot, a Kiwi Yacht Skipper and Everything in Between.

The Apartheid state seems to have a ‘leave pass’ to carry out whatever levels of brutality it wants. The large Western Powers are fully behind this genocide by providing financial, logistical, military and political cover for the Apartheid regime! The Vassal states like Aotearoa NZ are too cowardly to speak up because our quisling parliamentarians are either spineless or morally bankrupt and we all know how mendacious and brutal the regime in occupied Palestine can be. They are literally afraid of the monster the West created in occupied Palestine.
The Western Powers are in lock step with the Apartheid state as they were with the former Apartheid state in South Africa. Clearly, Fascism has prevailed.
To quote the late Nelson Mandela “Yasser Arafat, Colonel Gaddafi, Fidel Castro support our struggle to the hilt. They don’t just support us in rhetoric, they are placing resources at our disposal to assist us in winning this struggle”.

I’ve written extensively on the ecological consequences of all this warmongering.
“The US military with 800 offshore military bases and the independent states response to the threat it poses is grinding the living planet into dust.
The article below is five years old so the damage will be much worse than stated. Add the emissions from the war in Ukraine to this already dire prognosis.
 “If the US military were a country, its fuel usage alone would make it the 47th largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, sitting between Peru and Portugal.”
US military is a bigger polluter than as many as 140 countries – shrinking this war machine is a must

Additional statistics embedded following: Warmongering and the Climate Crisis

Now to address the basket case of our world economy whose main foundation now is debt. When I was young ‘Quantitative Easing was called “Counterfeiting”, now it’s become the only tool to keep the Ponzi scheme going! All previous Ponzi schemes unraveled; all Fiat currencies failed: “Why Quantitative Easing Should Concern You”

There is also non-Kinetic war underway.
The independent states are more united than they have ever been, in my half a century of observations. The critical weapon is de-dollarization and the emergence of the multi-polar BRICS block.
There’s a new boss, not the same as the old boss. The “Empire of Chaos” what Pepe Escobar calls the NATO block, will fight to the death, of us all, to protect US political and dollar Hegemony!

Many thanks to Jeffrey Sachs, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen for their courage and integrity.
Clearly the USA will never be able to pay its debts, the most likely scenario is that the global economy will stagger along bouncing from one ecological catastrophe after another, contemporaneous with one economic crash after another then one day we will wake up to the “Mother of All Crashes” and the Casino Economy will go broke.
The two stark risks that stand out for me is contagion in the banking system that could literally seize up; “As we watch the US banking system totter and begin to collapse, like the proverbial Jenga stack, we need to consider the implications this has for the global financial system and its supply chains.
I’ll begin with the stellar work of David Korowicz published on June 17, 2012  
Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapse

Follower of this blog know that I have delved extensively into the issue of collapse, additional links below for the curious, from myself and fellow travelers on the rocky road, down the Seneca Cliff of collapse!
Is Capitalism by Definition an Extinction Event?
Collapse: The Only Realistic Scenario
2030: Our Runaway Train Falls Off the Seneca Cliff
Problems, Predicaments, and Technology
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CLXXXIII — Complexity and Sustainability
What Keeps Empires Together?

So, WTAF happens when collapse unfolds?
Horrors beyond imagination, we’ll see the best and the worst of human behaviour and most disruptive of all we will lose the Aerosol Masking Effect, what Professor James E Hansen dubbed “Our Faustian Bargain”.
Loss of the AME will mean all major ‘Bread Baskets” will collapse, 450 terrestrial nuclear power plants will be abandoned to their fate, as will their 1200 Spent Fuel Pools, and additionally 100 maritime nuclear vessels will make their way to the bottom of the oceans where they will percolate away for millennia.
Nuclear reactors have powered naval ships since the US Navy lunched the submarine Nautilus in 1955. According to Lloyd’s Register around 100 naval reactors are in use today. 

My colleague and dear friend Professor Guy McPherson is a world leader in the field of societal collapse and extinction. He delves into the issue of the loss of Aerosol Masking Effect.

More information and another video featuring Leon Simons who co publishes with Professor James E Hansen embedded here: The Aerosol Masking Effect, a Deep Dive into Our “Faustian Bargain”

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Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Aerosol Masking Effect, Arthur Keller, Collapse, Colonialism, Imperialism, Nature Bats Last, Professor Guy McPherson

99 Percent Of The Earth’s Species Are Extinct

“If you were to list out every species that has ever existed on Earth—from the tiniest mold spore to the largest mammal—biologists estimate that somewhere around 99 percent of those species would currently be extinct.”
My dear friend Professor Guy McPherson in the video interview below mentioned the above incredible statistic!
I fact checked that assertion and its bang on, imagine that! source: 99 Percent Of The Species Are Extinct

The Carl Sagan quote “Extinction is the rule, survival is the exception” has always resonated with me.

Carl was warning about Climate Change in his 1985 appearance in front of the US congress.

Three years later Dr James E Hansen did the same in 1988!
How did Congress respond? Crickets.
We’ve more than doubled our emissions since those days.

I have previously interviewed Professor Paul Ehrlich on his book written in conjunction with Geraldo Ceballos, titled “The Annihilation of Nature.” That interview is embedded here:
They discuss the catastrophe in a new interview just released:
The subject of “Extinction Cascades” came up.
Professor McPherson and I interviewed Professor Cory Bradshaw on that topic on Nature Bats Last: Professor Corey Bradshaw explains the unfolding “Extinction Cascades”

Pedal to the metal, full speed ahead!




Woodcut by Nat Morley 2019
This is an absolutely fabulous documentary about The Cretaceous–Paleogene Extinction Event.
” The Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event, the last major extinction event to hit earth took place approximately 66 million years ago. This cataclysmic event that wiped out 75% life on earth, including the dinosaurs. This documentary recalls the events of this major event in world history as it happened.”

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Aerosol Masking Effect, Nature Bats Last, Near Term Human Extinction--NTHE, Professor Guy McPherson, Professor Paul Ehrlich

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The Carbon Pulse and its Planetary and Atmospheric Implications.

This series is a brilliant dive into the archelogy of how oil evolved and how it became fundamental to this set of living arrangements & how this set of living arrangements can’t function without fossil fuels. There is no “Energy Transition” outside of “Collapse.”

As the kids at the Deep Green Bush School pointed out to me when I spoke to them: “Wind turbines and solar panels require mining too you know”. Those kids are a testament to well-founded alternative schooling when done right!

My readers who are into the “Peak Oil” predicament will find some spectacular slides showing how oil was created in the subsoil strata and how dangerous fracking is, earthquakes are one consequence but the potential for the fracking fluids entering aquifers & poisoning them!

Episode One:

The full script to the episode can be found at Professor Guy McPhersons Substack post where readers can directly engage with Guy: Rocks for Jocks, Part One: A Discussion About Deep Time

Episode two:
Another fascinating dive into the “Carbon Pulse” which hurtled us to total domination of the planet.

Neils slides on coal seams and extraction going back to 1712 reiterate my point that the IPCC using 1880 as a baseline ignores centuries of anthropogenic emissions. Why ignore the Bronze age and Iron age emissions?

M. King Hubbert didn’t get everything right about “Peak Oil” but like Professor Paul Ehrlich and the “Population Bomb” his hypothesis was broadly correct!

This is a really cool series of discussions that are only getting better.

I’ve added the video below to the comments section of my blog post on Peak Oil titled “Global Peak Oil Remains an Existential Threat”

Rocks for Jocks, Part Two: A Discussion About Deep Time

Episode Three:
Imagine burning Whales, Birds and Fish so we can read at night?

Yes, burning oily fish and birds as a lantern! WTAF? WTH worked that out?

In the days of square rigger ships, the navigators used the stench from Whaling stations in the Pacific to assist in navigation!

A yacht skipper I sailed with hit a whale in his steel yacht just off Great Barrier Island once. The impact killed the whale and sprayed blood & blubber on the yacht, he told me he could smell it months later, despite washing the boat continually!

Then came the “Carbon Pulse” of gasoline becoming an endemic fuel around the planet when it was originally a waste product!

In 2021 we produced 99 million barrels of oil per day, digest that for a second. There is no other addiction on that scale

Incredible to know there were over 600 electric car recharging stations in 1916 in Chicago, over a hundred years later, there’s only about 3500!

This article has some incredible data and slides showing how we got corralled into this mess!

Rocks for Jocks, Part Three: A Discussion About Deep Time

Episode Four:
Another deep dive into the Carbon Pulse, and it’s ecological and societal consequences, with some incredible slides on the refining processes that convert millions of years of sequestered sunshine into the fossil fuels, that have enabled this dystopian civilization to literally “Steam Roller” the entire ecosystem. To quote GMP “Industrial civilization is Grinding the Living Planet into Dust”.

The issue of the Aerosol Masking Effect, what Dr James E Hansen called “Our Faustian Bargain” was discussed and how the reduction of aerosols is having an effect on both Sea Surface Temperatures and the loss of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice.

There are a few great slides that show bunker fuel being burnt by shipping vessels and Methane being flared from Oil Rigs. Neal made the point that the flared CH4 is just a fraction of what is leaking from the whole process. They flare the gas because it’s cheaper that reticulating it, legalized dumping into the atmosphere, just like dumping the radioactive water from Fukushima Daiichi into the nearby Pacific Ocean, is the cheapest option they could find. It’s no coincidence they chose the cheapest option! Diplomatic relations between Japan and China, both Koreas, Vietnam and Cambodia have become ‘stressed’ over this environmental larceny.

On one of my 16 ocean passages on yachts, I saw a huge black ball of pollution form in the sky horizon, as the Oil Tanker progressed across my course, the cloud got bigger and longer. Those aerosols also form clouds, so the loss of aerosols leads to lower pollution and more warming due to more solar radiation hitting the oceans over the shipping lanes and downwind from them

I’ve written to a few Universities and government departments in Japan floating my hypothesis of pumping that radioactive waste into a depleted oil well, rather than my beloved Pacific Ocean. I’ve yet to hear from any of them but would appreciate anyone’s thoughts on using depleted wells to store that radioactive waste. I hate the idea of pumping that waste into Papatuanuku/Mother Earth, but it beats vomiting it into the Pacific Ocean.

Rocks for Jocks, Part Four: A Discussion About Deep Time

All of the above oil and consequences are the result of mining.
As I was doing my research I literally stumbled upon this harrowing link:
“Many hard rock mines across the western United States may require water treatment for hundreds to thousands of years, or “in perpetuity” as a result of acid mine drainage or metals leaching.”

It’s the same predicament as Solar Radiation Management it must be continued for hundreds of thousands of years, years we don’t have!
Acid Mine Drainage

Clearly as the low hanging fruit has already been plucked and or ransacked, we have wars for the last dregs:

Posted in Aerosol Masking Effect, Arctic Sea Ice, Energy Industry, Nature Bats Last, Peak Oil, Professor Guy McPherson

Is Capitalism by Definition an Extinction Event?

Below is a truly magnificent documentary drawing the connections between the Class War and its attendant racism, Unregulated Capitalism and the destruction of the living biome!
“Capital is a mass extinction event.”

“For Land: on the capitalist mass extinction. Part one: Capital as extinction” is a feature length documentary arguing that capitalism is the force behind the sixth mass extinction.”
For the record it’s probably at least our Nineth Mass Extinction event:
” The film traces the destruction of the Amazon rainforest, the turn to steam in Britain, the clearances and colonialism to show this.”


“For years, researchers have expressed concern that rising temperatures, drought, and deforestation are reducing the capacity of the world’s largest rainforest to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and help offset emissions from fossil-fuel burning. Recent studies have even suggested that some portions of the tropical landscape already may release more carbon than they store.”
First study of all Amazon greenhouse gases suggests the damaged forest is now worsening climate change


The video above is from a post titled: The Iceman Goeth, Part Three: Extinction and Mass Extinction Events From 3.5 Billion to 66 Million Years Ago.
Readers can see the draft script and all the corroborating links embed in Professor McPhersons Substack post embedded above. Subscribers can engage with Guy directly and importantly support his world leading work, everyone’s got to eat & ice-cream isn’t cheap!

One of the largest Carbon Sinks on the planet is now a net CO2 emitter:
“The Amazon’s sheer size—it covers nearly seven million square kilometers, or about the area of Australia
Why Is the Amazon So Important for Climate Change?

I’ve previously written about the role Capitalism has played in the destruction of the living planet: The Pain You Feel Is Capitalism and the Living Planet Dying.





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Posted in Amazon Rain Forest, Climate Science, Extinction Cascades, Professor Guy McPherson

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Grace Gifford and Joseph Mary Plunket – A Love Story like No Other

One hundred and eight years ago Joseph Mary Plunket was murdered by imperialist occupation forces in Dublin on the 4th of May 1916.
Much has been written about those days, but few of the love stories that accompanied our struggle have been re-told. The love between Jo Plunket and Grace Gifford, possibly the most poignant.

“Plunkett was one of the original members of the IRB Military Committee that was responsible for planning the Easter Rising, and it was largely his plan that was followed. Shortly before the rising was to begin, Plunkett was hospitalised following a turn for the worse in his health. He had an operation on his neck glands days before Easter and had to struggle out of bed to take part in what was to follow. Still bandaged, he took his place in the General Post Office with several other of the rising’s leaders such as Patrick Pearse and Tom Clarke, though his health prevented him from being terribly active. His energetic aide de camp was Michael Collins”.
“Joseph Mary Plunkett (Irish: Seosamh Máire Pluincéid, 21 November 1887 – 4 May 1916) was an Irish nationalist, poet, journalist, and a leader of the 1916 Easter Rising.”
Joseph Mary Plunkett
“Following the surrender Plunkett was held in Kilmainham Gaol, and faced a court martial. Seven hours before his execution by firing squad at the age of 28, he was married in the prison chapel to his sweetheart Grace Gifford, a Protestant convert to Catholicism, whose sister, Muriel, had years before also converted and married his best friend Thomas MacDonagh, who was also executed for his role in the Easter Rising. Grace never married again.” Listen to the embedded song above for yet another poignant love story in the conflict zone.
Ireland divided shall never know peace.

GRACE Sung by Erin Sands Granddaughter of MP Bobby Sands.

Grace – Jim McCann


Kilmainham Gaol
Tiocfaidh ár lá 

Here’s another love story that was terminated with British high velocity lead.
I sat with Suzanne whilst she told me of the day when her husband Ronnie Bunting and best man at their wedding Noel Little were assassinated and there was no doubt whatsoever in Suzanne’s mind that the assailants were well trained, military hitmen. The Brits smashed their way into the house all dressed in matching black & wearing Balaclava’s, spraying bullets indiscriminately in every direction. After wounding my three IRSP comrades, they systematically went over to Noel and Ronnie’s bodies and added execution shots to ensure they were dead, Suzanne witnessed that. They didn’t do the same to Suzanne because part of her face had been effectively blown off and they assumed she was dead. It was the most brutal story I have ever heard, and I heard it from the only surviving witness, with all the facial reconstruction scars to show the horrors of her injuries.
I think it was a revenge killing ordered by Thatcher after the courageous INLA had blown up the arch bigot and racist Tory MP Airey Neave at the House of Commons in one of the truly great military operations of the war. Neave was a card-carrying fascist! The life and death of British spy turned politician Airey Neave
“The family of a senior INLA member killed in unexplained circumstances have called for a fresh inquest amid claims that the RUC removed a surveillance team before the gun attack.” The removal of the surveillance team shortly before the home invasion is evidence of at least collusion and more likely connivance and complicity!
Suzanne’s love for Ronnie and Noel shone brightly as she told me this chilling story! I was just a young kid from the diaspora, fresh in the war zone, stories like that were “10 a penny”!
I heard one woman ask an adolescent girl what she wanted to do when she left school and without a second’s hesitation she replied, “I want to join the IRA and drive the Brits out of Ireland”, I kid you not: Repression breeds resistance! As we bear witness to the latest genocide in Palestine us Irish know, that the bulk of the survivors will join the resistance.
Claims that RUC were watching house where two INLA men were shot dead


I had a love affair of my own during the war in Occupied West Belfast, for the edited highlights > Adventures of a Member of the Diaspora in Occupied West Belfast

For anyone who knows me from Facadebook they will know that my profile picture is of Mairead Farrell. The comments section is a homage to Mairéad with some spectacular interviews with her, grab a box of tissues before reading or watching the videos of Mairéad being interviewed!
My Maternal Grand Father was a Quartermaster in the Irish Citizen Army. He was caught with weapons, incarcerated in the Free State and did a 23-day hunger strike before it was called off, possibly due to pressure from the Catholic Church!

Seán was shot 18 times. “Farrell, Watson said, “was hit by five bullets to the face and neck and three in the back. Danny McCann was shot twice in the head and twice in the back.” 18 bullets hit IRA man Inquest told.

Executed whilst walking unarmed in a public street, when they could have easily been arrested.
I had to walk over the footpath in Gibraltar where Mairéad, Seán and Dan were machine gunned first and finally executed with shots fired down into their bleeding shredded bodies! The day after the triple execution, council workers arrived with pneumatic jack hammers to chip the lead out of the bullet impacts to the footpath. They destroyed the evidence of bullets fired directly down into the bodies of these three volunteers in a classic British “Shoot to Kill” operation.
I was in Gibraltar delivering yachts around the Mediterranean. I had a fascinating conversation on one delivery with a French F111 Mirage Fighter Jet pilot off the coast of Libya, as you do!
A Conversation Between a French F111 Fighter Jet Pilot, a Kiwi Yacht Skipper and Everything in Between. Interestingly they never boarded my yacht!
Below is a great article on the role that women have played in our struggle.
Cumann na mBan & Women in Irish Republican Paramilitary Organisations, 1969-1986

Gone but never forgotten comrades. Tiocfaidh ár lá 

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Scientists Terrified by How the Climate is Falling Apart

“If the fracturing of our once stable climate doesn’t terrify you, then you don’t fully understand it!”

“While those of us working in the climate science field know the true picture, and understand the implications for our world, most others do not,” he wrote. “And this is a problem — a big one.”
Scientists Terrified by How the Climate is Falling Apart
The above embedded article elicited the video response below from my friend and colleague Professor Guy McPherson.

I’ve been saying this for over a decade. A lost decade of preparation time, especially for our youth!
Abrupt Climate Change Denial has squandered an opportunity to prepare. The New Climate Denial Position is to deny Abrupt Climate Change.

I have curated a number of articles below showing the orchestrated litany of lies from people pretending to cover the climate and extinction crises.
As always, the technique is to shift the baseline dates so that they can pretend that we’ve had much less anthropogenic warming than we’ve in reality triggered. I covered this issue previously, Baseline Temperature dishonesty at the Edge of Extinction
Sam Carana at the Arctic News Blogspot is one of the few prepared to address the science and be realistic about the severity of our predicament. We’ll start with the truth and then get to the lies.

“It’s time to stop denying how precarious the situation is.”

“Remember the Paris Agreement? In 2015, politicians pledged to hold the global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pledged they would try and limit the temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Well, an analysis by Sam Carana shows that it was already more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial when the Paris Agreement was reached.” 2C Crossed
The Rogues Gallery of the Climate Enemy Within

Narrative Control at the Edge of Extinction.

As we circle the drain of collapse and extinction, the corporate media pretend to cover the poly-crises we face but report on the great unravelling as if it’s a future issue, rather that fully underway today, driven by the six-dozen feedback loops I know of, the ones we’ve yet to discover, and the “Black Swans” that we either haven’t thought of or we simply ignore. This muddying of the waters will only get worse as we circle the drain of collapse. “Current Climate Path Will Lead to Collapse of Life on Earth”

Voices From the Doomosphere | Kevin Hester My position in 2018


Above and below are forthright presentations from Dr Sid Smith, Guy and I interviewed Sid on NBL
Dr Sid Smith Rocks the Boat on Nature Bats Last

I’m editing this blog on 12/11/2024 including an analysis of the collapse from my friend and colleague Professor Guy McPherson.


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How on Earth Could Civilisation & the Biosphere Collapse in the Next Few Years?

The average person is incredulous when I say that Industrial Civilisation can and probably will collapse in the next two or if we’re ‘lucky’ three years. Sixteen ocean passages on small yachts, two years living in war zones and six decades of risk taking, have taught me the value of the “Precautionary Principle” and how your luck can evaporate, in a flash. “The precautionary principle has been adopted universally in different environmental instruments. It states that if there is risk of severe damage to humans and the environment, absence of incontrovertible, conclusive, or definite scientific proof is not a reason for inaction.” 
I will be surprised if this set of living arrangements survives more than two more melt seasons in the Arctic.
I’ve been collaborating with Professor Guy McPherson for over a decade now and clearly his overall hypothesis heavily influences my personal views and synopsis. I was a spectacularly reluctant adherent to Guy’s scholarly work. For the first year or two I responded to Guy’s work with every one of Elizabeth Kubler Ross’s “Stages of Grief”: Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, and finally Acceptance.
Acceptance is key to navigating this, the perfect storm. It does not equate to “Giving Up”. No one would accuse a terminal cancer patient of “Giving Up” and like it or not the diagnosis for the ecosystem is terminal. How we manage Planetary Hospice is up to us. If you’re on Facadebook you can see me ‘Giving Up” at the not-for-profit rewilding project at the Rakino Island Nursery where I volunteer, I’m the “Water Boy”.

Every single analogue is racing away, threatening a Seneca Cliff scenario.
Nonlinearity manifesting in all the graphs we are looking at? Check
The rerise of fascism and CO2 intensive warmongering? Check
The Bare Minimum attempts to reduce emissions. Check
Sea Surface temperatures threatening Canfield Oceans? Check
Sociopathic or psychopathic nuclear armed world leaders? Check
Starvation killing people over much of Africa and now Palestine. Check
A global Ponzi scheme masquerading as a global economy? Check
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Stalling? Check
Extinction Cascades? Check
A Minimum of Six Dozen Feedback Loops Triggered? Check
Losing a city/region to extreme Wet Bulb Temps? Standby

Let’s start by having a look at it from the perspective of losing the Cryosphere, our planetary thermostat:

“Losing the remaining Arctic Sea Ice and its ability to reflect incoming solar energy back to space would be equivalent to adding one trillion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, on top of the 2.4 trillion tons emitted since the Industrial Age, according to current and former researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego.”
“At current rates, this roughly equates to 25 years of global CO2 emissions.”
Cascading Consequences of the Loss of Arctic Sea Ice.

We are on the cusp of triggering a Blue Ocean Event (BOE) in the Arctic, there are a multitude of consequences that will accelerate our predicament from that event, not the least of them being the destabilising of the methane clathrates, especially vulnerable are those under the shallow East Siberian Arctic Shelf as documented by Dr Natalia Shakhova and her research partner Igor Semiletov and others. “Significant quantities of methane are escaping the East Siberian Shelf as a result of the degradation of submarine permafrost,” says Natalia Shakhova of the University of Alaska in Fairbanks. She and her team collected data – at a great cost – to show that vast areas are releasing plumes of methane gas, which is escaping into the atmosphere.” “Arctic storms speed up release of methane plumes” The above hyperlinked article is 11 years old; the destabilisation is accelerating.

Methane Hydrates – Extended Interview Extracts with Natalia Shakhova

“Over 10 years ago Dr Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov warned of a 50 billion tonne discharge of Methane from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf at “Any time”.
It’s been leaking at various levels ever since, but the dreaded “Clathrate Gun” has yet to manifest.
In a subsequent video Dr Peter Wadhams said he thought there were 100’s of billions of tonnes of CH4 under the shallow shelf and surrounding region. Possibly as much as four times more than that hypothesised above.
When it does destabilise, the warming will be near instantaneous and will devastate crop growth in the Northern Hemisphere. Ice-sheet-driven methane storage and release in the Arctic

“The heat in December 2023 was felt most strongly in the Arctic, as illustrated by the NASA image below, showing anomalies above 1951-1980 as high as 9.9°C. “
Seafloor methane tipping point crossed in 2024?




Einstein: Counting What Counts
“The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race is Our Inability to truly Understand the Exponential Function” Albert Bartlett

“On 18 March, 2022, scientists at the Concordia research station on the east Antarctic plateau documented a remarkable event. They recorded the largest jump in temperature ever measured at a meteorological centre on Earth. According to their instruments, the region that day experienced a rise of 38.5C above its seasonal average: a world record.” ‘Simply mind-boggling’: world record temperature jump in Antarctic raises fears of catastrophe.

“President Niinistö pointed out that, although the impacts are currently visible in the Arctic, they will ultimately affect each and every inhabitant of our planet. “There will be enormous consequences worldwide. As the ice melts, sea levels will rise. As the ice melts, solar radiation will not be reflected back – instead its energy will further warm the water and accelerate global warming.” President Niinistö in Arkhangelsk: If we lose the Arctic, we lose the whole world
Clearly, we have lost the Arctic!

Let’s have a look at it from a fire perspective.
“The Smokehouse Creek fire has so far scorched more than 1m acres – 1,600 sq miles – across the Texas Panhandle, as well as tens of thousands of acres in Oklahoma. It stretches over an area larger than Rhode Island, making it the largest ever wildfire in Texas, and the second-largest in US history, according to modern fire records.” A visual guide to the Texas wildfire
Dr Guy R McPherson – March 2024 Presentation in Westerly, Rhode Island

Why aren’t more scientists aligned with Guy and my timeline?

1) In our 2019 interview on Nature Bat Last, Dr Andrew Glikson titled: Tipping Points in the Earth Climate System. Dr Glikson said, “No one wants to be Cassandra”. Don’t I know it!

2) There is a long-held disdain for people talking about “The End Times’, most of which stem from pseudo religious mumbo jumbo, our position is rooted in Science.

3)The excellent author and journalist Chris Hedges wrote of the corruption of science: On Contact: The corporatization of science.

4) I’ve previously called out the corporate medias “Go to Mann” Michael E Mann for blatantly lying: Scientific Mal-Practice from the Mann Himself

5) Research grants are generally forerunners to develop marketable data or products.
Arctic researcher Dr Jason Box tweeted: “If even a small fraction of Arctic sea floor carbon is released to the atmosphere, we’re f’d.”
He copped enormous pushback and has never been so radical since!
Scientific reticence and the monetary system sunk our ship!
6) Climate sensitivity has been grossly underestimated and very few of us are prepared to admit our failure.
In 2017 I published an article titled: Full Earth System Sensitivity to CO2 has been Grossly Underestimated
The analysis was based on the work of David Wasdell from the Apollo Gaia Project.
“In this one-hour long presentation by Professor David Wasdell of the Apollo Gaia Project he explains that we have no available carbon budget and that we are on a trajectory of well over 10 degrees C.”

I woke up one morning to find this observation from Professor Peter Wadhams who has spent more time under and on the Arctic Sea Ice that any other scientist to my knowledge: “The analysis of climate sensitivity by David Wasdell is very important. I have been through it with him several times and am convinced of its validity. I mentioned it in “A Farewell to Ice”. The point is that here is a big difference between the short term sensitivity, which is used to calculate warming over a few years, and the long term sensitivity which represents how much warming the earth is going to be subjected to if you don’t add more CO2 but let the effects of the present levels work their way fully through the climate system. Short term sensitivity is 2-4.5 C, but long term is more like 10C. The crime of IPCC and other modelling outfits is that they are aware of this difference between short and long term, but still use the short term value even when they are doing hand-waving studies of what is going to happen over the next century or two. In fact it;’s not just the case that the magic 1.5C or 2C warming is already “baked in” to the global system – in fact the baked in figure is more like 4-5 C. Hence the vital need for carbon drawdown. Best wishes Peter Wadhams”.

How and why does the collapse of Industrial Civilisation equate to an extinction level event for most if not all complex life on the planet?
When industrial civilisation collapses, we will have over 450 unattended nuclear power stations melt down and approximately 1200 spent fuel pool fires erupting into a radioactive inferno the like of which has never happened before on this planet. Spent Nuclear Fuel Management Poses a Major Threat to the United States. American exceptionalism writ large, radiation respects no borders. Most chemical plants and oil wells will leak and burn once unattended.

When Industrial Civilisation collapses, we lose the “Aerosol Masking Effect”, what Dr James E Hanson labelled “Our Faustian Bargain”, there has been at least 1C of masking, perhaps a1.5C and Hansen said the aerosols will fall out of the atmosphere in as short a time as a week. No flora can adapt to those sorts of global perturbations. The Aerosol Masking Effect, a Deep Dive into Our “Faustian Bargain”

I accept and expect this post will be incredibly triggering for readers.
Here’s the deal. Leave a comment below, contact me any time after January 1 in 2026 and I’ll send you a bottle of quality New Zealand wine so that we can all celebrate us being wrong!




Posted in Abrupt Climate Change, Aerosol Masking Effect, Arthur Keller, Dr Andrew Glikson, Dr Igor Semiletov, Dr Natalia Shakova, Nature Bats Last, Professor Guy McPherson
Kevin Hester

Kevin Hester is currently living on Rakino Island, a small island in the Hauraki Gulf near Auckland, New Zealand, monitoring the unravelling of the biosphere and volunteering at the Rakino Island Nursery is currently developing a proposal to create a marine reserve near by. The Island has no grid tied electricity or reticulated water.  I catch my own water from the roof and generate my electricity from the ample solar radiation on the island.

My Submission to the Ministry of the Environment
Kevin Hester, Dropping Anchor in an Exponential World
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